Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-30-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Probable Starters:

 

Iowa PPD - Rain

 

Tennessee lost 2-1 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 0/4, 2 K

2B C. Young 1/4, R, K, SB (11)

1B J. Candelario 1/4, RBI

RF M. Zagunis 2/4

C V. Caratini 0/3, K

LF B. Rademacher 0/1, K

SP P. Blackburn 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 6-4 GO-FO, 71-45 pitches-strikes

RP S. Peralta 1.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GO-FO

RP J. Paniagua 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach lost 4-3 Box Score

 

CF R. Crawford 0/2, 2 BB

SS G. Torres 1/4, RBI, K

DH I. Happ 0/4, K

1B Y. Balaguert 0/4, K

3B J. Vosler 1/4, R, K

RF Je. Baez 0/3, R, BB

SP E. Leal 5+ IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 4-3 GO-FO, 88-54 pitches-strikes

RP J. Rosario 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-2 GO-FO

 

South Bend won 5-1 Box Score

 

LF D. Dewees 3/5, 2B (8), RBI, SB (7)

C PJ Higgins 0/5, R, RBI

RF E. Jimenez 2/4, 2B (6), RBI, 2 BB

CF E. Martinez 2/5, R, 2B (4), 2 RBI, K

1B T. Alamo 1/3, R, BB, K

2B C. Sepulveda 1/2, R, 2 BB, K

SP A. Alzolay 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 5-4 GO-FO, 93-62 pitches-strikes

RP C. Brooks 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Iowa was postponed today.

 

Eddy Martinez with a 2-RBI double in the first for South Bend. He's now 2-3 with a double, a steal, two walks, and no strikeouts since I tore him apart after seeing him on Thursday.

[sneakypower]

man, you were way off

[PackLandVA]

Can someone explain again why Chesny Young is not a higher rated prospect. All the guy does is hit. Another at bat, another hit tonight.Six Ks and 16 BB in almost 80 ABs, too.

[Vinestal]

Can someone explain again why Chesny Young is not a higher rated prospect. All the guy does is hit. Another at bat, another hit tonight.Six Ks and 16 BB in almost 80 ABs, too.

I asked the same question last year. I was told that he couldn't possibly continue doing what he's doing at higher levels. Most people point to his lack of power as the reason he's not more highly rated. If he continues to hit and get on base at what he has done in previous levels and adds a little bit of power to his game he could shoot up some prospect lists. He does already have 2 HR this year already. He is 1/2 with a SB and a run scored already tonight btw.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Can someone explain again why Chesny Young is not a higher rated prospect. All the guy does is hit. Another at bat, another hit tonight.Six Ks and 16 BB in almost 80 ABs, too.

I asked the same question last year. I was told that he couldn't possibly continue doing what he's doing at higher levels. Most people point to his lack of power as the reason he's not more highly rated. If he continues to hit and get on base at what he has done in previous levels and adds a little bit of power to his game he could shoot up some prospect lists. He does already have 2 HR this year already. He is 1/2 with a SB and a run scored already tonight btw.

 

I mean, he was a completely different-looking prospect last year, though. At the time, he was a 22-year-old in A-ball with no power. Plenty of advanced slap hitters have maintained high batting averages at that level and then leveled off as they went up the ladder. For instance, Billy Hamilton hit .323 with a 12.8% BB% at high-A as a 21-year-old in 2012. It's easier for guys like him to succeed at that level.

 

Also, Young's somehow hit even better this year, and improved other parts of his game, too. And he's done so at AA. Now it's starting to get real. But, a 22-year-old with a .067 ISO in high-A is never going to be a top prospect. Now, he may not hit for power, but he is walking nearly 17% of the time and K'ing about 6% of the time. That's impressive, when he's doing it at AA. Factor in his speed and his ability to play several positions, including second... well, he might be something now.

 

So, good job on being on the Chesny Young Train before everyone else. But, if you had told me he would strike out even less than his already stellar rate, while walking more, and continuing to pile up singles at AA, I probably would have been in on him then, too. But, being that bullish on him at the time might have been jumping the gun some.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Paul Blackburn: 5IP 4H 0R 1BB 4K. His ERA is down to 0.29 on the year.

[sneakypower]

Can someone explain again why Chesny Young is not a higher rated prospect. All the guy does is hit. Another at bat, another hit tonight.Six Ks and 16 BB in almost 80 ABs, too.

ever hear of Mike O'Neill? his bb:k's always looked like misprints

[jersey cubs fan]

Can someone explain again why Chesny Young is not a higher rated prospect.

 

Because he's a shitty country singer

[toonsterwu]

The thing with prospect rankings is that they shouldn't be viewed solely as a judgment for whether or not a player can play, and whether or not they have MLB potential. Yes, there is a lot of over-lap, but rankings are, if we boil it down to it's most rudimentary purposes, focused on a combination of ceiling and capability of reaching said ceiling.

 

I thought Young probably should've been in the 20's to 30's of our system this winter, and I liked him. I still do - here's a guy who has some speed, can play multiple infield positions (former collegiate shortstop), has some bat speed, has some foot speed, has a good approach. Prior to this year, he looked like a potentially solid bench option for the bigs, and a guy who might be able to squeeze out some years as a starter. In saying that, I don't think there was much reason to push him above where he largely got ranked - that 20's-30's range. There simply put, wasn't a ton of ceiling to him because of relatively limited tools, and he was a college guy in the lower levels. Fair or not, often times, for prospect rankings, guys with this sort of profile have to prove it up the ladder.

 

I imagine if he keeps this up all year, he'll really jump in the eyes of prospect rankings and could reasonably see him crack the top 10 of our system. At that point, he'll have shown that his lower level success wasn't a fluke, that his bat speed plays up here, that his recognition is solid. The lower ceiling would limit his potential to rank higher, but if he maintains solid production all year, he'll deserve to be viewed as a "safer" guy who can help soon.

[ScrubMD]

I've always kind of overlooked Blackburn due to the lack of strikeouts, but I was looking at his stats recently and he's just been crazy consistent - and his ERA has declined every level. Are there decent starters in the majors with such a low K rate?

 

EDIT: and now looking again, I guess his K rate isn't quite as low as it was in my head, but still pretty uninspiring.

[Cubswin11]

I've always kind of overlooked Blackburn due to the lack of strikeouts, but I was looking at his stats recently and he's just been crazy consistent - and his ERA has declined every level. Are there decent starters in the majors with such a low K rate?

I mean at his current ~3 k/9 rate absolutely not (SSS I know), but guys have been able to have success in the 5-6 k/9 range that's he's been at the past 2 years and average in his MILB career. Mike Leake and Mike Pelfrey are two guys, looking at Fangraphs, that may be decent comps for him.

[ScrubMD]

I've always kind of overlooked Blackburn due to the lack of strikeouts, but I was looking at his stats recently and he's just been crazy consistent - and his ERA has declined every level. Are there decent starters in the majors with such a low K rate?

I mean his current ~3 k/9 rate absolutely not, but guys have been able to have success in the 5-6 k/9 range that's he's been at the past 2 years. Mike Leake and Mike Pelfrey are two guys, looking at Fangraphs, that may be decent comps for him.

 

Yeah, I was talking about his minor league career as a whole. I went back and looked and the k's weren't quite as low as I thought they were.

[CubsWin]

I've always kind of overlooked Blackburn due to the lack of strikeouts, but I was looking at his stats recently and he's just been crazy consistent - and his ERA has declined every level. Are there decent starters in the majors with such a low K rate?

I mean at his current ~3 k/9 rate absolutely not (SSS I know), but guys have been able to have success in the 5-6 k/9 range that's he's been at the past 2 years and average in his MILB career. Mike Leake and Mike Pelfrey are two guys, looking at Fangraphs, that may be decent comps for him.

The comps might not be as good as you think. Pelfrey while the same age as Blackburn (22) in AA had a K/9 of over 10 and did so the year prior in High-A. He had one full-ish season at AAA (74 IP) and it dropped to 6.8. His MLB career K/9 is 5.1. Leake basically went straight to the majors. He pitched in 6 games in the Arizona Fall League and started with the Reds the next season.

 

It's hard to find a MLB starter that has a low career K/9 (there are better stats to go by but this is the one mentioned earlier in the discussion so I'll stick with it) that didn't have a higher K/9 while in the minors, especially the lower levels.

 

That said, Blackburn has a had a solid minor league career. He seems to get the most out of his stuff (i.e. pitchability) which was mentioned as one of the reasons why Theo & Jed drafted him in 2012. Not every pitcher needs to get it done the same way, but it's rare to find guys with K/9s around 6 in the lower levels that wind up being effective starters in the bigs.

 

This Cubs developmental staff has been full of surprises lately with guys taking huge steps forward the last couple of seasons. So I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season, Blackburn has upped his K-rate from the previous season. He did so between Low-A (5.8 K/9) and High-A (6.3 K/9) while improving his BB/9 a notch from 2.4 to 2.2. Right now it's at 4.4 with a BB/9 of 1.5. If he follows the same incremental improvement trajectory and finishes this season with 6.8 and 2.0 as a 22 year old in AA, I'll take it.