2016 Trade Deadline

[David]

 

Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree.

 

I'm not big on arbitrary end points (I mean, I'm happy to look to splits like that to look for signs of progress and whatnot, but definitely not for making big picture roster decisions). I know Lucroy is 30, had a bad year just last year, and given the ~96% chance at winning the division already, doesn't change things much this season. Add in Willson's age and contract status and it isn't even a close call for me.

 

EDIT - And while not on Lucroy's level, it's not like Contreras has graded out as a detriment as a framer, so far.

 

Let's look forward then. ROS ZiPS has Lucroy as a .339 wOBA compared to .306 for Contreras. Plus the defensive impact means that Lucroy is going to be a far better option. I'd personally rather not make that move given the likely cost, but there's little argument that the Cubs aren't better with Lucroy as the catcher this year and next.

 

They've got the division locked up. What tangible benefit does that projected 30 points in wOBA actually have?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They've got the division locked up. What tangible benefit does that projected 30 points in wOBA actually have?

 

Having a better hitter, defender, framer, and game caller for the rest of the season and playoffs makes a real difference. If you want to pick nits at 'significant' have at it, and like I said before I'd rather not because of the cost, but the improvement is undeniable. Every season is at the mercy of a handful of pitching elbows and shoulders staying intact and productive, so there's definitely appeal and benefit to capitalizing when we know we have those lined up. Theo said almost exactly that after the Chapman deal.

[stitchface]

"They've got the division locked up"

 

They are likely to win the division but this is an over-statement. Plus, they definitely don't have next year's division locked up.

[David]

"They've got the division locked up"

 

They are likely to win the division but this is an over-statement. Plus, they definitely don't have next year's division locked up.

 

If the 4-5% thing happens, it happens. There's not much you can do to move the needle on what can be projected to happen with 2 months to go.

 

Obviously, next season is in play. That also puts Lucroy a year older (and he's still one season removed from being not good - only to illustrate that he's not some sort of 4 WAR lock being a year older).

[David]

They've got the division locked up. What tangible benefit does that projected 30 points in wOBA actually have?

 

Having a better hitter, defender, framer, and game caller for the rest of the season and playoffs makes a real difference. If you want to pick nits at 'significant' have at it, and like I said before I'd rather not because of the cost, but the improvement is undeniable. Every season is at the mercy of a handful of pitching elbows and shoulders staying intact and productive, so there's definitely appeal and benefit to capitalizing when we know we have those lined up. Theo said almost exactly that after the Chapman deal.

 

I still think the Chapman deal was ill advised (but I'm gonna enjoy what he does on the field while he's here) and I think, if you put any stock into what the playoffs odds and the projections (very much the same type of thing you're using to show the gap between Lucroy and Contreras for ROS) say, 95ish% is just that. And then the playoffs where I still believe you can't do anything to beat the fact that even a great team has to go through 3 gauntlets where they have at least a 40% chance of ending up dead each time.

[davell]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/759874215717863424[/tweet]

 

I know Maddon says he's hearing nothing going on and its probably time for Soler to get a break, but I'm holding out hope for another move.

[Thusly Boned]

"They've got the division locked up"

 

They are likely to win the division but this is an over-statement. Plus, they definitely don't have next year's division locked up.

 

If the 4-5% thing happens, it happens. There's not much you can do to move the needle on what can be projected to happen with 2 months to go.

 

Obviously, next season is in play. That also puts Lucroy a year older (and he's still one season removed from being not good - only to illustrate that he's not some sort of 4 WAR lock being a year older).

 

If you're going to keep bringing up that Lucroy wasn't good last year, it's also worth mentioning that he's been pretty darned good every other season since 2012. I like the chances of him being a 3-5 WAR player next year better than the chances of him being a 1 WAR player again.

 

But like TT, I don't think the acquisition cost is worth the improvement. If we're going to give up the players it'd take, I'd prefer they be spent on areas of greater need.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/759874215717863424

 

I know Maddon says he's hearing nothing going on and its probably time for Soler to get a break, but I'm holding out hope for another move.

 

I think Maddon is just saying that. There is no way that Hoystein isn't working hard trying to improve the team anyway they can. Another move might not end happening but it's not quiet up there that's for sure.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I still think the Chapman deal was ill advised (but I'm gonna enjoy what he does on the field while he's here) and I think, if you put any stock into what the playoffs odds and the projections (very much the same type of thing you're using to show the gap between Lucroy and Contreras for ROS) say, 95ish% is just that. And then the playoffs where I still believe you can't do anything to beat the fact that even a great team has to go through 3 gauntlets where they have at least a 40% chance of ending up dead each time.

 

I think that's a bit of an oversimplification. The Cubs are in a bit of a unique spot where they're extremely unlikely to miss the playoffs or end up in the wild card game, but if we're saying 'boy I don't know if one of the top 3 or so catchers in MLB for this year and next really moves the needle', I think we're taking it a bit far.

[David]

"They've got the division locked up"

 

They are likely to win the division but this is an over-statement. Plus, they definitely don't have next year's division locked up.

 

If the 4-5% thing happens, it happens. There's not much you can do to move the needle on what can be projected to happen with 2 months to go.

 

Obviously, next season is in play. That also puts Lucroy a year older (and he's still one season removed from being not good - only to illustrate that he's not some sort of 4 WAR lock being a year older).

 

If you're going to keep bringing up that Lucroy wasn't good last year, it's also worth mentioning that he's been pretty darned good every other season since 2012. I like the chances of him being a 3-5 WAR player next year better than the chances of him being a 1 WAR player again.

 

But like TT, I don't think the acquisition cost is worth the improvement. If we're going to give up the players it'd take, I'd prefer they be spent on areas of greater need.

 

As for the bold, maybe. He'll be a 31 year old catcher. I'm not sure you can say that with much certainty.

 

And it's not like I'm saying he's not good or I wouldn't want him. I just don't think he actually changes anything this season, so you're talking about a likely clear (but probably not huge) upgrade to the team's chances next year and a clear downgrade in subsequent years (possibly pretty big given the post 2017 options).

[rocket]

is throwing lucroy out in lf on occasion feasible at all? i know he's played some first, too. with maddon managing, it's not out of the realm of possibility that lucroy can help us without catching every day.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Miley did so good yesterday he ended up being shipped off to Baltimore

[Clem Fandango]

Lucroy suffered a broken toe early in the season that caused him to miss a little under a month and a half of play and a concussion last year which is why his play suffered. I have to imagine having to recover from a broken toe is difficult for a catcher, much less a hitter in general.

 

Lucroy is arguably the 2nd best catcher in baseball behind Buster Posey when he's healthy. He's a great defensive backstop and a legitimate threat with the bat. I like Willson and what he can do for us in the future, but I like winning World Series Championships more than sitting around and holding out hope that Contreras even sniffs the type of production that Lucroy is putting up right now, and there is no guarantee that he will. Some are willing to forego Lucroy's history and proven track record in favor of a catching prospect who, up until last season, was a guy most of us didn't even know existed?

 

Sorry, but I'll take Lucroy, thank you very much. I understand if not wanting Lucroy from a financial and/or player cost perspective is someone's hold up and that's perfectly acceptable, but to think Lucroy doesn't make the best team in baseball even better in multiple ways and helps them win a world series this year and next more than Contreras is just being plain biased.

[Derwood]

Any particular reason the deadline is on 8/1 instead of 7/31? Is it because its a Sunday, because that's stupid

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Any particular reason the deadline is on 8/1 instead of 7/31? Is it because its a Sunday, because that's stupid

 

It is.

[David]

Lucroy suffered a broken toe early in the season that caused him to miss a little under a month and a half of play and a concussion last year which is why his play suffered. I have to imagine having to recover from a broken toe is difficult for a catcher, much less a hitter in general.

 

Lucroy is arguably the 2nd best catcher in baseball behind Buster Posey when he's healthy. He's a great defensive backstop and a legitimate threat with the bat. I like Willson and what he can do for us in the future, but I like winning World Series Championships more than sitting around and holding out hope that Contreras even sniffs the type of production that Lucroy is putting up right now, and there is no guarantee that he will. Some are willing to forego Lucroy's history and proven track record in favor of a catching prospect who, up until last season, was a guy most of us didn't even know existed?

 

Sorry, but I'll take Lucroy, thank you very much. I understand if not wanting Lucroy from a financial and/or player cost perspective is someone's hold up and that's perfectly acceptable, but to think Lucroy doesn't make the best team in baseball even better in multiple ways and helps them win a world series this year and next more than Contreras is just being plain biased.

 

By how much would you say you think the Cubs odds of winning a world series this year improve by replacing our current catching situation with Lucroy? Serious question.

[Derwood]

Any particular reason the deadline is on 8/1 instead of 7/31? Is it because its a Sunday, because that's stupid

 

It is.

 

So dumb. Clearly all the FO's are working. Is it because the secretaries at the MLB office can't possible come in on a Sunday?

[David]

You win a World Series by maximizing your chances at going to the playoffs many times, not by trying to maximize the roster one or two years. There's no amount of maxing out of this roster that is going to change the reality of what the MLB playoffs are. The whole diminishing returns thing is very very real with regard to adding talent the 2016 Cubs.

[Tim]

I just think that a guy like Lucroy is going to be worth a lot more to other teams than the Cubs. Our catching situation this year and next isn't that desperate. However, he represents a huge and certain upgrade for teams like the Rangers, Astros or Tigers. They should be willing to pay more than us because he is worth more to them. Not only are they getting much less from the catcher position, not only do they not have good solutions for next year, but they are all fighting for their playoff lives. Lucroy would increase all of their odds a heck of a lot more than he'd increase ours.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So dumb. Clearly all the FO's are working. Is it because the secretaries at the MLB office can't possible come in on a Sunday?

 

Nailed it.

 

The real answer is that 99% of professional baseball is playing on Sunday afternoon, and they want to avoid yanking every traded player mid-game or having a mad rush once games start ending. To me the simpler solution would be to go back to a midnight deadline on a Sunday, but I also don't think moving to 8/1 is stupid either.

[Derwood]

It's mostly stupid because I didn't realize it wasn't today and i feel dumb

[imb]

Lucroy suffered a broken toe early in the season that caused him to miss a little under a month and a half of play and a concussion last year which is why his play suffered. I have to imagine having to recover from a broken toe is difficult for a catcher, much less a hitter in general.

 

Lucroy is arguably the 2nd best catcher in baseball behind Buster Posey when he's healthy. He's a great defensive backstop and a legitimate threat with the bat. I like Willson and what he can do for us in the future, but I like winning World Series Championships more than sitting around and holding out hope that Contreras even sniffs the type of production that Lucroy is putting up right now, and there is no guarantee that he will. Some are willing to forego Lucroy's history and proven track record in favor of a catching prospect who, up until last season, was a guy most of us didn't even know existed?

 

Sorry, but I'll take Lucroy, thank you very much. I understand if not wanting Lucroy from a financial and/or player cost perspective is someone's hold up and that's perfectly acceptable, but to think Lucroy doesn't make the best team in baseball even better in multiple ways and helps them win a world series this year and next more than Contreras is just being plain biased.

 

By how much would you say you think the Cubs odds of winning a world series this year improve by replacing our current catching situation with Lucroy? Serious question.

 

this is the dumbest stance

[Clem Fandango]

Lucroy suffered a broken toe early in the season that caused him to miss a little under a month and a half of play and a concussion last year which is why his play suffered. I have to imagine having to recover from a broken toe is difficult for a catcher, much less a hitter in general.

 

Lucroy is arguably the 2nd best catcher in baseball behind Buster Posey when he's healthy. He's a great defensive backstop and a legitimate threat with the bat. I like Willson and what he can do for us in the future, but I like winning World Series Championships more than sitting around and holding out hope that Contreras even sniffs the type of production that Lucroy is putting up right now, and there is no guarantee that he will. Some are willing to forego Lucroy's history and proven track record in favor of a catching prospect who, up until last season, was a guy most of us didn't even know existed?

 

Sorry, but I'll take Lucroy, thank you very much. I understand if not wanting Lucroy from a financial and/or player cost perspective is someone's hold up and that's perfectly acceptable, but to think Lucroy doesn't make the best team in baseball even better in multiple ways and helps them win a world series this year and next more than Contreras is just being plain biased.

 

By how much would you say you think the Cubs odds of winning a world series this year improve by replacing our current catching situation with Lucroy? Serious question.

 

Well Montero is garbage this year. Ross is fine and normal in his limited capacity. And willson has hit the skids hard and we cant be confident he'll recover before the year is over. Meanwhile Lucroy continues to be one of the most productive catchers in baseball and will probably accrue at least another 1.5 wins before his season is over. That type of player helps more than the three headed monster of mediocrity we currently have. You absolutely want the best possible player you can get at all positions if you're making a run or the series. We talked about this with schwarber at the beginning of the year when people questioned his defense. Lucroy is that guy at catcher.

 

Its just debate fodder at this point though. I have zero expectation the cubs get lucroy, but still acquiring him and giving up willson is in the process is fine by me if it were to happen.

[davell]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE

[Cubswin11]

Assuming Archer is off the table/too expensive I still like Odorizzi the most of their starters, even though I know that's not the popular opinion/pitcher of theirs on this board.