2016 Trade Deadline

[Tim]

I have a lot of faith in Willson. I don't want to spend the assets it would take to get Lucroy.

 

I believe in Willson quite a bit long term, although if things don't tick up a bit with Montero, I'm a little worried about next season specifically. Finding another C that's good enough for Contreras insurance but not a waste of resources(since he wouldn't be an outright starter) isn't going to be a particularly easy task.

Have faith in Schwarb's rebuilt knee?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have a lot of faith in Willson. I don't want to spend the assets it would take to get Lucroy.

 

I believe in Willson quite a bit long term, although if things don't tick up a bit with Montero, I'm a little worried about next season specifically. Finding another C that's good enough for Contreras insurance but not a waste of resources(since he wouldn't be an outright starter) isn't going to be a particularly easy task.

Have faith in Schwarb's rebuilt knee?

 

I have to think Schwarber the catcher is mostly dead, definitely dead to the extent that you could count on him catching more than once a week or so in 2017.

[stitchface]

With that contract, having Lucroy makes a ton of sense for the Cubs this and next year. And he can get a QO next year or you flip him. I'm with TT though that I don't think I would have Schwarbs catching a ton next year.

 

I think the idea of waiting out the market makes sense though and see what it costs to get him. What's the point where the Brewers just keep him? I don't really see the huge incentive they have to trade him.

[Tim]

 

I believe in Willson quite a bit long term, although if things don't tick up a bit with Montero, I'm a little worried about next season specifically. Finding another C that's good enough for Contreras insurance but not a waste of resources(since he wouldn't be an outright starter) isn't going to be a particularly easy task.

Have faith in Schwarb's rebuilt knee?

 

I have to think Schwarber the catcher is mostly dead, definitely dead to the extent that you could count on him catching more than once a week or so in 2017.

I think if you want to even do the Schwarbs at catcher once a week thing, it is hard to invest significant other assets at catcher, though. I think they'll go the route of a David Ross type that brings experience, leadership and defense if they ditch Montero. I think the most likely scenario is that they plan to go into next year with Contreras + Montero, with a question mark on Schwarbs being back there once in a while if his knees can take it.

[davell]

 

Good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Have faith in Schwarb's rebuilt knee?

 

I have to think Schwarber the catcher is mostly dead, definitely dead to the extent that you could count on him catching more than once a week or so in 2017.

I think if you want to even do the Schwarbs at catcher once a week thing, it is hard to invest significant other assets at catcher, though. I think they'll go the route of a David Ross type that brings experience, leadership and defense if they ditch Montero. I think the most likely scenario is that they plan to go into next year with Contreras + Montero, with a question mark on Schwarbs being back there once in a while if his knees can take it.

 

 

Right, that's the rub. If Montero is toast then you don't have legitimate Contreras insurance, and a Ross type isn't going to be a worthy option to play ~60% of a contender's games if Contreras struggles or needs a DL stint. And that's if we optimistically assume 20-30 games caught by Schwarber, it's a bit more dire if those games need to be accounted for too.

 

I'm a longtime Montero fan and I think he could be better than he's been this year, which would make him ideal for the job. But I'm a lot less confident than I was 6 months ago.

[stitchface]

Really, it's not just next year though - it's this year too and Montero and Heyward are just black holes offensively. At least Heyward provides good defense but Montero looks completely washed up (injury maybe?). If Lucroy were left-handed, it would be better but running Montero out there is starting to seem like a non-option. So, does Contreras catch with Ross as back-up the rest of the year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Really, it's not just next year though - it's this year too and Montero and Heyward are just black holes offensively. At least Heyward provides good defense but Montero looks completely washed up (injury maybe?). If Lucroy were left-handed, it would be better but running Montero out there is starting to seem like a non-option. So, does Contreras catch with Ross as back-up the rest of the year?

 

Lucroy's cost would be too high to not take advantage and play him every day, so that'd be a definitive win now move at Contreras' expense. Next year too. Not necessarily wrong, but very opinionated to the short term. Outside of Lucroy I don't see a practical option for this year outside of hoping Contreras catches on quickly or Montero gets right. Maybe Derek Norris if you think his bat is easier to turn around than Montero's?

[Tryptamine]

After all the various tweets and bits of information we get, I'm going to be kind of disappointed if Theo doesn't add that lefty OFer they've been looking for.There has got to be something better than Coghlan out there for a fairly reasonable price. Obviously I'd like a SP too, but that can be done in the offseason.

[stitchface]

Really, it's not just next year though - it's this year too and Montero and Heyward are just black holes offensively. At least Heyward provides good defense but Montero looks completely washed up (injury maybe?). If Lucroy were left-handed, it would be better but running Montero out there is starting to seem like a non-option. So, does Contreras catch with Ross as back-up the rest of the year?

 

Lucroy's cost would be too high to not take advantage and play him every day, so that'd be a definitive win now move at Contreras' expense. Next year too. Not necessarily wrong, but very opinionated to the short term. Outside of Lucroy I don't see a practical option for this year outside of hoping Contreras catches on quickly or Montero gets right. Maybe Derek Norris if you think his bat is easier to turn around than Montero's?

 

You mean the acquisition cost? I don't know if I agree with that - but of course we don't know that cost. I do like Norris though and even if he doesn't fully rebound offensively, he is a better defender than Montero and six years younger.

 

Long-term, WIllson looks like a better outfield option than Schwarber. He also looks like a better catching option.

[Clem Fandango]

Jonathan Lucroy helps us win a world series better than Willson Contreras both this year and next. I'd move Willson and not think twice about it. Also catching insurance after Lucroy leaves is where Caratini will come in handy, I'd hope.

[stitchface]

After all the various tweets and bits of information we get, I'm going to be kind of disappointed if Theo doesn't add that lefty OFer they've been looking for.There has got to be something better than Coghlan out there for a fairly reasonable price. Obviously I'd like a SP too, but that can be done in the offseason.

 

I think Theo (poor Jed) is waiting it out to see what's left tomorrow.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

After all the various tweets and bits of information we get, I'm going to be kind of disappointed if Theo doesn't add that lefty OFer they've been looking for.There has got to be something better than Coghlan out there for a fairly reasonable price. Obviously I'd like a SP too, but that can be done in the offseason.

 

I still don't think the OF rumors made sense unless there was a different deal sending out Soler. As it stands, Coghlan, Soler, and Baez(via Bryant/Zobrist in the OF) make a pretty strong combined option that I don't think is appreciably upgraded by Reddick/Bruce.

[stitchface]

After all the various tweets and bits of information we get, I'm going to be kind of disappointed if Theo doesn't add that lefty OFer they've been looking for.There has got to be something better than Coghlan out there for a fairly reasonable price. Obviously I'd like a SP too, but that can be done in the offseason.

 

I still don't think the OF rumors made sense unless there was a different deal sending out Soler. As it stands, Coghlan, Soler, and Baez(via Bryant/Zobrist in the OF) make a pretty strong combined option that I don't think is appreciably upgraded by Reddick/Bruce.

 

 

It's the power lefty bat thing. As bad as Heyward and Montero have been, would be nice to have some power beyond Rizzo.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You mean the acquisition cost? I don't know if I agree with that - but of course we don't know that cost. I do like Norris though and even if he doesn't fully rebound offensively, he is a better defender than Montero and six years younger

 

We've already seen the approximate price to get Lucroy, it's not low and definitely more than you'd want to pay for 1.5 years of a part time player. Lucroy is very good so it wouldn't make sense from a practical standpoint to play Contreras over him either(at least not this year).

[David]

Jonathan Lucroy helps us win a world series better than Willson Contreras both this year and next.

 

I don't know that this is true to a very significant degree this year and next, and certainly not beyond that.

 

I'd move Willson and not think twice about it.

 

This is a pretty silly thing to say.

[Tryptamine]

After all the various tweets and bits of information we get, I'm going to be kind of disappointed if Theo doesn't add that lefty OFer they've been looking for.There has got to be something better than Coghlan out there for a fairly reasonable price. Obviously I'd like a SP too, but that can be done in the offseason.

 

I still don't think the OF rumors made sense unless there was a different deal sending out Soler. As it stands, Coghlan, Soler, and Baez(via Bryant/Zobrist in the OF) make a pretty strong combined option that I don't think is appreciably upgraded by Reddick/Bruce.

 

 

It's the power lefty bat thing. As bad as Heyward and Montero have been, would be nice to have some power beyond Rizzo.

 

Pretty much this. I know the Cubs have hit RHP and LHP pretty much equally this year, but with Heyward,Montero and Coghlan struggling and with TLS in AAA, it sure would be nice to have another lefty bat who could do some damage. I really liked the Blackmon idea.

[stitchface]

You mean the acquisition cost? I don't know if I agree with that - but of course we don't know that cost. I do like Norris though and even if he doesn't fully rebound offensively, he is a better defender than Montero and six years younger

 

We've already seen the approximate price to get Lucroy, it's not low and definitely more than you'd want to pay for 1.5 years of a part time player. Lucroy is very good so it wouldn't make sense from a practical standpoint to play Contreras over him either(at least not this year).

 

 

I would be ok with Willson going back to AAA to catch every day in that scenario. Though I think I'd rather see him in LF than Soler.

 

I am not sure the cost is the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. To me, specifics on the players involved are important anyway. Basing things off prospect rankings is pretty sketchy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jonathan Lucroy helps us win a world series better than Willson Contreras both this year and next.

 

I don't know that this is true to a very significant degree this year and next, and certainly not beyond that.

 

Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree.

[Northsider]

Really, it's not just next year though - it's this year too and Montero and Heyward are just black holes offensively. At least Heyward provides good defense but Montero looks completely washed up (injury maybe?). If Lucroy were left-handed, it would be better but running Montero out there is starting to seem like a non-option. So, does Contreras catch with Ross as back-up the rest of the year?

 

Lucroy's cost would be too high to not take advantage and play him every day, so that'd be a definitive win now move at Contreras' expense. Next year too. Not necessarily wrong, but very opinionated to the short term. Outside of Lucroy I don't see a practical option for this year outside of hoping Contreras catches on quickly or Montero gets right. Maybe Derek Norris if you think his bat is easier to turn around than Montero's?

 

I'm not sure it is a plan to supplant Contreras. They could easily use Lucroy and Contreras platooning Left and Catcher.

 

Maybe they think framing is less valuable than they originally thought (so long as its positive)? Cause Statcorner is showing Montero as best (per-game), with Ross at 11, Lucroy 19, and Contreras at 24. Interest in replacing Montero suggests either they're conservative on framing value or think it can be taught (or that pitchers have something to do with it).

[David]

Jonathan Lucroy helps us win a world series better than Willson Contreras both this year and next.

 

I don't know that this is true to a very significant degree this year and next, and certainly not beyond that.

 

Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree.

 

I'm not big on arbitrary end points (I mean, I'm happy to look to splits like that to look for signs of progress and whatnot, but definitely not for making big picture roster decisions). I know Lucroy is 30, had a bad year just last year, and given the ~96% chance at winning the division already, doesn't change things much this season. Add in Willson's age and contract status and it isn't even a close call for me.

 

EDIT - And while not on Lucroy's level, it's not like Contreras has graded out as a detriment as a framer, so far.

Edited July 31, 2016 by David

[mdwilla]

Theo wil find us another big bat and surprise us all before tomorrow.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not sure it is a plan to supplant Contreras. They could easily use Lucroy and Contreras platooning Left and Catcher.

 

Maybe they think framing is less valuable than they originally thought (so long as its positive)? Cause Statcorner is showing Montero as best (per-game), with Ross at 11, Lucroy 19, and Contreras at 24. Interest in replacing Montero suggests either they're conservative on framing value or think it can be taught (or that pitchers have something to do with it).

 

You can find a way to keep Contreras from wasting away in AAA even with Lucroy, but it definitely stunts his development, especially as a catcher. Like I said earlier, it's not necessarily bad/wrong, but it's very much prioritizing short term only.

 

As far as framing goes, I don't think that's it. Montero has been a very strong framer and done almost nothing else well(hit, block pitches, throw out runners). The fact that he's continuing to get playing time at all is a bit of a tribute to how much they likely value his framing/game-calling. Lucroy grades out very well as a framer too.

[Bruno7481]

In a perfect world, Contreras eventually becomes Lucroy offensively. I do think the Brewers would make the Cubs "overpay" to an extent. I do think Lucroy would be a tremendous fit for this lineup, both this year and next. I'd probably move Contreras for him but I understand why some wouldn't.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I don't know that this is true to a very significant degree this year and next, and certainly not beyond that.

 

Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree.

 

I'm not big on arbitrary end points (I mean, I'm happy to look to splits like that to look for signs of progress and whatnot, but definitely not for making big picture roster decisions). I know Lucroy is 30, had a bad year just last year, and given the ~96% chance at winning the division already, doesn't change things much this season. Add in Willson's age and contract status and it isn't even a close call for me.

 

EDIT - And while not on Lucroy's level, it's not like Contreras has graded out as a detriment as a framer, so far.

 

Let's look forward then. ROS ZiPS has Lucroy as a .339 wOBA compared to .306 for Contreras. Plus the defensive impact means that Lucroy is going to be a far better option. I'd personally rather not make that move given the likely cost, but there's little argument that the Cubs aren't better with Lucroy as the catcher this year and next.