2016 Trade Deadline

[BigSlick]

Maybe this is me being greedy, but this team, as constructed, is the best Cubs team I've seen in my life. They have a noticeable weakness in the bullpen while still boasting a ton of desirable assets for any team. Get players who are going to be far and away an upgrade over the current status quo. If there's some pieces that have to be mortgaged from the future, then so be it. This team is not going to be hurting for position talent anytime soon. The entire current starting roster, sans Fowler, is going to be here next year. There's enough depth to go out and get an elite difference maker in the bullpen.

 

This is where I'm starting to lean. I understand that everything doesn't work out perfectly and the Cubs are successful now because of tons of resources and waves of young talent.....but now that Contreras and Almora are up, I have a hard time arguing that any current minor leaguer is untouchable. Even if it means you have to give up slightly more than you'd like, obviously it'd be worth it if the Cubs win it all. The top prospects the Cubs have are Torres, Happ, McKinney, and Eloy among others. All 4 of these guys are either 3 levels away or in McKinney's case, has diminished a bit. And as much as it is a gamble, I'd bank on the guys that are up staying productive and healthy for at least a couple years to basically block any prospect that might come up in the near future.

 

I'd have 0 problem giving up Torres and a package that resembles a typical deadline trade for a top hitter/pitcher for Andrew Miller. He's really good, under control for 2.5 more years at a modest 9M per, and has a 16.6K/9 rate, while walking less than 1 per 9.

 

I keep trying to return to the grand plan of winning a World Series in the next few years. Even with the bullpen's recent shakiness (and really, it's not been *that* shaky) every addition is going to come with diminishing returns in the regular season. I can be swayed that good high leverage guys have a somewhat disproportionate role in the postseason, but they will ultimately not move the needle much, because nothing can move the needle that much.

 

In the long term to win a World Series means putting out a juggernaut for many years in a row and hoping to hit the jackpot in one of the crapshoots. That being the case, an eye towards whatever holes we may have in the next few years should be where the resources go. It's true, we won't be hurting for positional talent for years to come, but 3/5 of the rotation is over 30, Jake may depart, who knows what pieces you'll need to move to keep the staff strong.

 

All that being said, given the years left and just how downright good he'll likely be for a while, paying a little over for Miller I think would be fine.

[David]

Maybe this is me being greedy, but this team, as constructed, is the best Cubs team I've seen in my life. They have a noticeable weakness in the bullpen while still boasting a ton of desirable assets for any team. Get players who are going to be far and away an upgrade over the current status quo. If there's some pieces that have to be mortgaged from the future, then so be it. This team is not going to be hurting for position talent anytime soon. The entire current starting roster, sans Fowler, is going to be here next year. There's enough depth to go out and get an elite difference maker in the bullpen.

 

This is where I'm starting to lean. I understand that everything doesn't work out perfectly and the Cubs are successful now because of tons of resources and waves of young talent.....but now that Contreras and Almora are up, I have a hard time arguing that any current minor leaguer is untouchable. Even if it means you have to give up slightly more than you'd like, obviously it'd be worth it if the Cubs win it all. The top prospects the Cubs have are Torres, Happ, McKinney, and Eloy among others. All 4 of these guys are either 3 levels away or in McKinney's case, has diminished a bit. And as much as it is a gamble, I'd bank on the guys that are up staying productive and healthy for at least a couple years to basically block any prospect that might come up in the near future.

 

I'd have 0 problem giving up Torres and a package that resembles a typical deadline trade for a top hitter/pitcher for Andrew Miller. He's really good, under control for 2.5 more years at a modest 9M per, and has a 16.6K/9 rate, while walking less than 1 per 9.

 

I keep trying to return to the grand plan of winning a World Series in the next few years. Even with the bullpen's recent shakiness (and really, it's not been *that* shaky) every addition is going to come with diminishing returns in the regular season. I can be swayed that good high leverage guys have a somewhat disproportionate role in the postseason, but they will ultimately not move the needle much, because nothing can move the needle that much.

 

In the long term to win a World Series means putting out a juggernaut for many years in a row and hoping to hit the jackpot in one of the crapshoots. That being the case, an eye towards whatever holes we may have in the next few years should be where the resources go. It's true, we won't be hurting for positional talent for years to come, but 3/5 of the rotation is over 30, Jake may depart, who knows what pieces you'll need to move to keep the staff strong.

 

I almost made this exact same post, except without the last sentence (which I didn't include).

[raw]

Maybe this is me being greedy, but this team, as constructed, is the best Cubs team I've seen in my life. They have a noticeable weakness in the bullpen while still boasting a ton of desirable assets for any team. Get players who are going to be far and away an upgrade over the current status quo. If there's some pieces that have to be mortgaged from the future, then so be it. This team is not going to be hurting for position talent anytime soon. The entire current starting roster, sans Fowler, is going to be here next year. There's enough depth to go out and get an elite difference maker in the bullpen.

 

This is where I'm starting to lean. I understand that everything doesn't work out perfectly and the Cubs are successful now because of tons of resources and waves of young talent.....but now that Contreras and Almora are up, I have a hard time arguing that any current minor leaguer is untouchable. Even if it means you have to give up slightly more than you'd like, obviously it'd be worth it if the Cubs win it all. The top prospects the Cubs have are Torres, Happ, McKinney, and Eloy among others. All 4 of these guys are either 3 levels away or in McKinney's case, has diminished a bit. And as much as it is a gamble, I'd bank on the guys that are up staying productive and healthy for at least a couple years to basically block any prospect that might come up in the near future.

 

I'd have 0 problem giving up Torres and a package that resembles a typical deadline trade for a top hitter/pitcher for Andrew Miller. He's really good, under control for 2.5 more years at a modest 9M per, and has a 16.6K/9 rate, while walking less than 1 per 9.

 

I keep trying to return to the grand plan of winning a World Series in the next few years. Even with the bullpen's recent shakiness (and really, it's not been *that* shaky) every addition is going to come with diminishing returns in the regular season. I can be swayed that good high leverage guys have a somewhat disproportionate role in the postseason, but they will ultimately not move the needle much, because nothing can move the needle that much.

 

In the long term to win a World Series means putting out a juggernaut for many years in a row and hoping to hit the jackpot in one of the crapshoots. That being the case, an eye towards whatever holes we may have in the next few years should be where the resources go. It's true, we won't be hurting for positional talent for years to come, but 3/5 of the rotation is over 30, Jake may depart, who knows what pieces you'll need to move to keep the staff strong.

 

All that being said, given the years left and just how downright good he'll likely be for a while, paying a little over for Miller I think would be fine.

 

 

Oh I completely agree with you. That's why I mentioned Miller and not a guy like Chapman. No addition is going to do more for this team than take it from 110 to 112 wins. Miller would be a guy that would help in the grand plan, maybe moreso than any realistic individual player. He helps the team potentially shorten postseason games to 6 innings along with Strop and Rondon at the backend. And I believe Miller is a guy that fits in your 2nd paragraph perfectly also. The bullpen will always have holes because that's the nature of bullpens, even moreso when you consider guys throwing with their left hands out of the bullpen.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I hope we make sure Matusz cant replace Richard this year before we give up an elite prospect like Torres or Jiminez. I just think those two guys are key to title numbers 6,7,8...

[David]

it seems like we are going to give arrieta'ing matusz a real try before we make him a loogy

[NOLA]

Keith Law saying the Yankees asking Baez or Schwarbs for Miller, maybe Soler for Chapman.

[davell]

I'll pass. Not trading Schwarber or Javy for a reliever.

[NOLA]

I'll pass. Not trading Schwarber or Javy for a reliever.

Either of them in Yankee pinstripes would hurt.

[imb]

Man I think I would move Soler for Miller. I really dont want to deal with having chapman on this team but i guess i could find a way

[davell]

Man I think I would move Soler for Miller. I really dont want to deal with having chapman on this team but i guess i could find a way

 

Oh, I'd move Soler in a Miller deal for sure. I'd move him for Chapman, IF Chapman wasn't a raging piece of horsefeathers.

[David]

i get that he's really valuable but i still don't want to move any potential future/current dongsmiths for a relief pitcher. sue me.

 

we're just not going to get better in a meaningful way this year. i'll keep the future assets and try to maximize the ability to keep being awesome every year (yeah, miller under control blah blah, don't care). i'm team horsefeathers pitchers, and that especially means relief pitchers.

[UMFan83]

I love Soler and I still think he can be an absolute monster, but I think if you can trade for one of the top 5 relievers in baseball, who is under contract for 2 more years after this one, and he happens to be lefty which is maybe our biggest weakness (LHP in the pen), you have to strongly consider it.

[David]

I love Soler and I still think he can be an absolute monster, but I think if you can trade for one of the top 5 relievers in baseball, who is under contract for 2 more years after this one, and he happens to be lefty which is maybe our biggest weakness (LHP in the pen), you have to strongly consider it.

 

what good is fixing our biggest "weakness?"

 

what's it going to accomplish?

[Sammy Sofa]

I love Soler and I still think he can be an absolute monster, but I think if you can trade for one of the top 5 relievers in baseball, who is under contract for 2 more years after this one, and he happens to be lefty which is maybe our biggest weakness (LHP in the pen), you have to strongly consider it.

 

Good God, yes.

[squally1313]

As much as I would love to see Miller in a Cubs uniform, I don't know if it's worth even giving up Torres or Happ for him. Yes, those guys are theoretically blocked in our organization for a little while (and they aren't close to the majors), but those are bullets that could be spent on something else when a bigger need arises.

 

And by that I'm focusing mainly on the rotation. You never want to plan on or assume injuries, but you also shouldn't plan on the health we've gotten out of our starters over the last year and a half, especially given the ages of some of them. With Warren looking shaky and our other swing relievers not doing a whole lot, our starting pitching gets pretty thin. Yeah, Torres might be a few years away, but if Torres can be a piece that gets us a top starter to replace an injured Arrieta/Lester/Lackey, or if Arrieta walks, I think we're better served making sure we can do that.

 

Plus, at the end of the day, I trust the front office to find a way to shore up the bullpen in a much cheaper way. They did it last year with Cahill and Rodney, and you can tell they're already trying with Matusz and Crow. They'll figure something out.

[David]

As much as I would love to see Miller in a Cubs uniform, I don't know if it's worth even giving up Torres or Happ for him. Yes, those guys are theoretically blocked in our organization for a little while (and they aren't close to the majors), but those are bullets that could be spent on something else when a bigger need arises.

 

And by that I'm focusing mainly on the rotation. You never want to plan on or assume injuries, but you also shouldn't plan on the health we've gotten out of our starters over the last year and a half, especially given the ages of some of them. With Warren looking shaky and our other swing relievers not doing a whole lot, our starting pitching gets pretty thin. Yeah, Torres might be a few years away, but if Torres can be a piece that gets us a top starter to replace an injured Arrieta/Lester/Lackey, or if Arrieta walks, I think we're better served making sure we can do that.

 

Plus, at the end of the day, I trust the front office to find a way to shore up the bullpen in a much cheaper way. They did it last year with Cahill and Rodney, and you can tell they're already trying with Matusz and Crow. They'll figure something out.

 

exactly this

[MPrior]

Yeah, I think you'd have to be willing to part with Soler for Miller (although I don't think the Yanks would accept Soler as the centerpiece for Miller) - we don't even know if Soler will ever be a useful baseball player - I know we all look at his potential and salivate (me too!), but thus far, he's an injury-prone defensive liability whose hot streaks with the bat are matched only by his cold ones. Miller is a reliable monster out of the pen, good for 2ish WAR and 4ish WPA, and he addresses a weakness.

 

Otherwise, though, I'm more in David's camp - I wouldn't be interested in trading, say, Torres for him - I agree with you David that the opportunity for us to substantially move the needle on our chances this year is slim to none (although the best way to do that would likely be with an ace LH relief pitcher, unless one of our starters gets injured), and I wouldn't want to give up too much for it - my main goal at this point would be to ensure that our team remains this good for as many years as possible.

[Banedon]

I hate getting into mock trades or assessing trade value because I think generally the media and fans don't do very well at it. (I know I don't.)

 

But I do wonder...is there a Cubs tax on trades this year? Will the Cubs have to pay a little more than other teams would because other teams know the Cubs have more to trade than other teams?

[David]

I hate getting into mock trades or assessing trade value because I think generally the media and fans don't do very well at it. (I know I don't.)

 

But I do wonder...is there a Cubs tax on trades this year? Will the Cubs have to pay a little more than other teams would because other teams know the Cubs have more to trade than other teams?

 

If so, there'd be even less incentive to attempt to improve the best team in baseball by a wide margin.

[Banedon]

I hate getting into mock trades or assessing trade value because I think generally the media and fans don't do very well at it. (I know I don't.)

 

But I do wonder...is there a Cubs tax on trades this year? Will the Cubs have to pay a little more than other teams would because other teams know the Cubs have more to trade than other teams?

 

If so, there'd be even less incentive to attempt to improve the best team in baseball by a wide margin.

 

Right...I mean, you have to take advantage of your opportunities, but in the same breath, the whole goal of the Cubs "rebuild" was to build a team that could dominate the division for years, and get a lot of playoff opportunities. A deep pool of young talent is instrumental for that. I hate to sacrifice very much of that at all for 2nd lefty in the pen.

[mul21]

As much as I would love to see Miller in a Cubs uniform, I don't know if it's worth even giving up Torres or Happ for him. Yes, those guys are theoretically blocked in our organization for a little while (and they aren't close to the majors), but those are bullets that could be spent on something else when a bigger need arises.

 

And by that I'm focusing mainly on the rotation. You never want to plan on or assume injuries, but you also shouldn't plan on the health we've gotten out of our starters over the last year and a half, especially given the ages of some of them. With Warren looking shaky and our other swing relievers not doing a whole lot, our starting pitching gets pretty thin. Yeah, Torres might be a few years away, but if Torres can be a piece that gets us a top starter to replace an injured Arrieta/Lester/Lackey, or if Arrieta walks, I think we're better served making sure we can do that.

 

Plus, at the end of the day, I trust the front office to find a way to shore up the bullpen in a much cheaper way. They did it last year with Cahill and Rodney, and you can tell they're already trying with Matusz and Crow. They'll figure something out.

 

I don't think this is coincidence. There's a reason they've picked out the guys they have. I'd be willing to bet they've developed some sort of algorithm that's helping them focus on starting pitchers with a very low injury probability and damned if it's not working pretty well so far.

[davell]

I hate getting into mock trades or assessing trade value because I think generally the media and fans don't do very well at it. (I know I don't.)

 

But I do wonder...is there a Cubs tax on trades this year? Will the Cubs have to pay a little more than other teams would because other teams know the Cubs have more to trade than other teams?

 

If so, there'd be even less incentive to attempt to improve the best team in baseball by a wide margin.

 

Right...I mean, you have to take advantage of your opportunities, but in the same breath, the whole goal of the Cubs "rebuild" was to build a team that could dominate the division for years, and get a lot of playoff opportunities. A deep pool of young talent is instrumental for that. I hate to sacrifice very much of that at all for 2nd lefty in the pen.

 

I figure teams inside our division would definitely ask more from us, but I'd doubt it extends past that.

[Tim]

I think there are going to be options out there that don't cost as much. The media keeps focusing on the Yankees because, well, because NY. But there will be guys out there like Doolittle that should cost much less and add depth to the bullpen nearly as effectively.

 

Oh, also, if I haven't mentioned it yet, sign Greg Holland without giving up any talent to get him.

[davell]

I think we'll add a depth starter at some point before the deadline. Some sort of buy low type, like a Kyle Gibson or something. But I think there's enough lefty relievers out there that we'll get a good one. My honest guess is Miller stays put and we get Doolittle, with Soler as the lead piece.

[sneakypower]

I love Soler and I still think he can be an absolute monster, but I think if you can trade for one of the top 5 relievers in baseball, who is under contract for 2 more years after this one, and he happens to be lefty which is maybe our biggest weakness (LHP in the pen), you have to strongly consider it.

 

Good God, yes.

you know that if you had your druthers half the guys who donged yesterday wouldn't even be here