2016 Trade Deadline

[Cubswin11]

I'm jiggy with Will Smith if Miller doesn't wind up a Cub.

He's supposed to be back in the next few weeks. Assuming it doesn't look like the knee injury affected him, he's def high on my list.

[Northsider]

As long as we're looking at dominant relief pitchers, why not target the younger, (contractually) cheaper Betances?

 

I'd start negotiating by trying to make Torres/Vogelbach the centerpieces; value is similar to Margot/Guerra for Kimbrel, with Torres more valuable and Vogelbach less, but I suspect Jimenez or Happ will eventually be required. Final valuation likely centered around whether Kimbrel deal was an overpay and the contract differences between Kimbrel and Betances.

 

I suspect final package will look something like Torres, Happ, Edwards, Vogelbach; overall better per-player value except maybe for Edwards/Logan Allen, where Edward's better floor and Allen's starting potential balance out. Vogelbach and Edwards in particular may be able to help the Yankees this year, too - their first base has been a gaping hole, and Edwards has high-end (not quite Betances- or Miller-size) potential still.

 

At the very least, those discussions could help us in a potential deal for Andrew Miller; and in best case we get a younger player who has been a little better than Andrew Miller in the recent past.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm tapping out a lot earlier than that listed package for a reliever, even one as good as Betances. Ken Giles is a fairly recent reminder of the line all of them walk, and gutting the top of the farm system for one(especially in our current state where the back end of the pen is quite good) isn't worth it for me.

[toonsterwu]

I'm open to anything, a lot of it dependent on how the team looks in the summer, but I don't think a straight package comparison makes sense in that

 

a) Yankees may try to move Miller sooner than later, placing a higher value on Betances

 

b) Kimbrel was signed down, while, unless I'm mistaken, Betances is still in arbitration

 

c) Off-season vs. Summer Trades

 

d) I think a Margot/Guerra package is far more valuable than Torres/Vogelbach ... two up the middle guys with offensive ceilings ... Guerra isn't that far away, tools/skillwise from Torres. Would also add that Logan Allen was a very good arm talent as well.

 

The Giles trade is probably a better one to use as a comparison in terms of the value of Giles/Betances, but I'm not inclined to give such a huge package unless dominant pen arm is our only need. It may very well be, but even then, there seems to be as good a chance that a cheaper pen arm would be on the market that would be equally as successful in filling our needs.

[Northsider]

I'm open to anything, a lot of it dependent on how the team looks in the summer, but I don't think a straight package comparison makes sense in that

 

a) Yankees may try to move Miller sooner than later, placing a higher value on Betances

 

b) Kimbrel was signed down, while, unless I'm mistaken, Betances is still in arbitration

 

c) Off-season vs. Summer Trades

 

d) I think a Margot/Guerra package is far more valuable than Torres/Vogelbach ... two up the middle guys with offensive ceilings ... Guerra isn't that far away, tools/skillwise from Torres. Would also add that Logan Allen was a very good arm talent as well.

 

The Giles trade is probably a better one to use as a comparison in terms of the value of Giles/Betances, but I'm not inclined to give such a huge package unless dominant pen arm is our only need. It may very well be, but even then, there seems to be as good a chance that a cheaper pen arm would be on the market that would be equally as successful in filling our needs.

 

I disagree a little with d. Torres is more highly thought of on *every* top-prospect board I've looked at, by at least 10 spots, and this year is playing much better than Guerra while a year younger at the same level. And I never said Allen was a bad prospect - just that he's at A ball and that Edwards/Allen is a floor/upside tradeoff.

 

In favor of a Kimbrel-package comparison,

 

a) Kimbrel and Giles both have more control on their contracts

 

b) Kimbrel and Giles both are younger than Betances and may have more upside remaining

 

c) IIRC, there was a lot of discussion about the Kimbrel and Giles deals being part of the pitching overpays this offseason

 

If we do have to consider a Giles-like package, then Velasquez and Appel are the key pieces. Appel appears to be somewhere between Margot or Guerra and Allen in value so providing that value will actually be rather easy, but Velasquez is in the majors with high expected future value. The problem is that Velasquez really doesn't have a comparable on the Cubs. La Stella, Hendricks, Szczur all have less value; Baez and Soler are probably valued slightly less but have greater actual value.

 

Since Giles and Betances are relief pitchers, the relatively low added extra value between them is more than offset by the lesser control, so Hendricks or Baez with McKinney or Zagunis would be the most comparable package centerpieces. I can't see either team doing that; the Cubs like Baez too much, and Hendricks, McKinney, Zagunis wouldn't be valued highly enough by the Yankees. Even if a Giles-esque value is desired, I think the Kimbrel package has to guide the deal; and the Torres/Happ/Edwards/Vogelbach deal would still give a lot of talent. Do you think a fifth player is demanded on that basis, or one of the current Cubs?

[davell]

I think we'll do our best to get Matusz honestly. If they straighten him out, it saves us the prospects heading towards a reliever, that can be used to address something else.

[Northsider]

I think we'll do our best to get Matusz honestly. If they straighten him out, it saves us the prospects heading towards a reliever, that can be used to address something else.

 

Hopefully. I love the idea of grabbing ex-Oriole pitchers, Arrieta and Strop are too much fun.

[toonsterwu]

Northsider, to be quite honest, I wouldn't do that much, but from a "do I think that would be enough?", I would hope so. Really, considering how elite prospects are protected, a package starting with Torres should be able to get a pen arm, as long as Torres doesn't fall flat on his face the next month or so. That said, my point wasn't on individual value - my point on d was that the value of two up the middle guys with offensive ceiling probably tops that of Torres/Vogelbach. It's debatable, though.

 

____

 

I'm not in love with Matusz. I think he can be an effective LOOGY, as he has been in the past, but I don't think he's more than that. I think they'll probably take a run, but I imagine past pedigree will likely lead to several teams giving him a look.

 

_____

 

I'm actually intrigued with the idea of whether or not Clay Buchholz can be had. That said, with Carson Smith out for the year, the Red Sox may be comfortable with the idea of shifting Buchholz into Smith's role. Still, if he can be had on the cheap, I would definitely be intrigued.

[Northsider]

Northsider, to be quite honest, I wouldn't do that much, but from a "do I think that would be enough?", I would hope so. Really, considering how elite prospects are protected, a package starting with Torres should be able to get a pen arm, as long as Torres doesn't fall flat on his face the next month or so. That said, my point wasn't on individual value - my point on d was that the value of two up the middle guys with offensive ceiling probably tops that of Torres/Vogelbach. It's debatable, though.

 

____

 

I'm not in love with Matusz. I think he can be an effective LOOGY, as he has been in the past, but I don't think he's more than that. I think they'll probably take a run, but I imagine past pedigree will likely lead to several teams giving him a look.

 

_____

 

I'm actually intrigued with the idea of whether or not Clay Buchholz can be had. That said, with Carson Smith out for the year, the Red Sox may be comfortable with the idea of shifting Buchholz into Smith's role. Still, if he can be had on the cheap, I would definitely be intrigued.

 

Point taken. And I'm more into getting Matusz because of the disastrous development system he came out of than anything. Buchholz ... I'm looking at his pitch values and I'm seeing a good cutter and split-finger. Curve and Change have been good in the past though. Bullpen target for this year maybe? Almora + prospect swap seems potentially reasonable, as Castillo/Young seem to be struggling. Another possibility might be Montero + prospect swap, if the Red Sox believe in framing (statcorner says Swihart needs to learn). Contreras hasn't learned framing yet though, so a Montero trade would either see Ross playing a lot more or a trade for Lucroy.

[toonsterwu]

I think there's a fair point that the Orioles pitching developmental system is a big question mark (actually, what they do a decent job of is the old churn out a bunch of solid end of the rotation/middle relief options) due to the history of their Big "3's" (actually, 4 ... Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz/Britton), and the Bundy/Harvey/Gausman development.

 

That said, in Matusz's case ... I don't know if they really hurt him. I think he just ... tapped out. He was ready in 2009. They gave him every chance, and he had a horrid, uh, 2011? He had split problems, IIRC, and had trouble the deeper he went. I really think they didn't do him wrong that much. Doesn't mean he can't make it as a solid end of the rotation lefty - with a different coach, perhaps, but I don't think they did him wrong. One could argue with Arrieta, they didn't show enough patience (even, then... that's debatable as well ... ). With Matusz, not sure. There weren't any glaring mechanical issues, like Arrieta, or "stuff" usage, that I recall.

 

Anyhow, all that said, i do think he could perhaps be fixed and be a fine pen lefty. I'd be all for bringing him in and seeing if the could perhaps work with him at AAA a bit.

 

In Buchholz's case, the idea would be to bring him over for the pen this year, utilize our financial strength and pick up his option and have him in the mix to challenge for Hammel's vacated rotation spot (actually, Matusz could be an idea for that as well). That said, with how bad the pitching market is next year, it's quite possible a lot of teams could have interest in Buchholz and drive up the price, at which point, it's a more debatable move.

[davell]

If we're going to go after an old OF that's relatively horrible defensively, give me Bautista all day.

[davell]

I see your Bautista and raise you Mike Trout. I think it's a given that you take one of the handful best power hitters in the game over Carlos Beltran, he just might be waaaaay less available.

 

Why? They're a half game up on the Yankees. Both are in the final year of their deal. I can see Toronto selling just as easily as I can the Yanks.

[David]

I see your Bautista and raise you (swap old for money) Mike Trout. I think it's a given that you take one of the handful best power hitters in the game over Carlos Beltran right now, Bautista just might be waaaaay less available.

 

your reasoning for beltran's potential availability isn't far off from bautista's situation

[Cubswin11]

If we are trading for an OF, of any impact sell the farm (and Schwarber) for Trout or else just trade the Billy McKinney's of the systems for the backup/4th OF/Platoon OF of the world.

[toonsterwu]

Keep thinking that there seems like a lot of teams that could be desperate at the trade deadline and wonder if some potential to take advantage of them could exist. I mean, all teams could be desperate, but some teams seem more liable, like

 

Arizona - Sunk a ton of money to make a run, traded a bunch of assets.

Marlins - They pushed in with Wei Yin Chen.

Angels - Thin system, antsy owner. Still don't buy them selling Trout, much as that would make sense.

Detroit - Antsy owner, thin system, aging core.

Kansas City - Defending their title. Going to watch them with some intrigue the next few months because of the Moustakas injury, although even if

Candelario is hot, he might be too raw for them to think about.

Blue Jays - Impending FA's could lead to a sell-off if they fall too far, but if they are close, I think they push, despite the weak system. Rogers made

good money on the playoff run last year, and factor in Shapiro and Atkins newly installed with what they perceive as a weak system, I could

see them try to "Preller" things and chuck away some guys from the previous regime.

 

A couple more teams could probably fit into the mix of teams that could be really desperate. Just wonder on the potential of making secondary trades, prospect for prospect type moves, with some of our excess (of course, any big deal would take priority ... not suggesting making secondary moves first).

__________

 

Keep wondering if there's any trade concepts that could really surprise out of the blue, akin to how the Nomar trade played out for the Red Sox many years ago. Doesn't seem like it, but just wonder.

[davell]

Hoyer is quoted in an article from late last night that we're not likely to be in the market for hitting. But we're always looking for pitching......

 

I just saw a quote out of Atlanta that said if they deal Teheran, they're going to want young, major league hitting in return. They're not looking for prospects.......At this time last year, I think we wanted more than just him for Soler......I'm wondering if the roles have reversed now, and if so, by how much?

 

Plus, who plays LF for us, if we make a move like that? KB mostly? With Javy and TLS getting the full reps at 3B. Or does Scissors fit into the picture more than I'd think? Almora maybe? Lots of options, I guess. But if we've got a healthy rotation at the end ofJuly, do we just grab a good pen arm and try to find depth in August?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As much as I really like and want Teheran, something has to materially change in the next 6 weeks in order for him to be acquired. I mean, the worst ERA in the rotation is Lackey at 3.38, the worst FIP Hammel at 3.35. Someone has to get hurt or start tanking for a strong SP to be in the cards.

 

That said, especially since Warren's control hasn't been so great as to inspire confidence if we don't add a starter, I wonder if they beef up the bullpen with someone who could potentially fill in as a SP, in a similar fashion as they did last year with Richard and Cahill. Matusz has been mentioned before, Hill was thought of this way(although that's increasingly unrealistic), someone like Drew Hutchison maybe?

[Gilby]

In a vacuum I'd love to deal Soler for Teheran, but I just don't see that happening with the current makeup of the roster. You can't take Hendricks out of the rotation; he's the superior pitcher. And as much as he's struggled in the 2nd half in the past, I doubt they'll take Hammel out with a high 2s/low 3s ERA. I mean unless we just have a huge lead in the division near the deadline and we want to go with a 6 man rotation to keep everyone fresh, and plan ahead a bit to decline Hammel's option. But that would be kind of weird to worry about Hammel's replacement for next season during this season. Unless there's a notable injury, I think the focus will be on upgrading the bullpen, preferably by adding a lefty. I also think Maddon will continue to try to put Soler in favorable spots and then they'll explore a trade in the offseason.

[davell]

DiCaro mentioned Eovaldi as a guy we're interested in. He's always intrigued me and I'd like to see what Bosio could do with him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

DiCaro mentioned Eovaldi as a guy we're interested in. He's always intrigued me and I'd like to see what Bosio could do with him.

 

I would definitely be interested in Eovaldi though it would annoying that he will be a free agent after 2017, just like Arrieta, Hammel (if his 2017 option is picked up) and Lackey.

 

Also, I'm really not sure why the Yankees would trade him - they're not the classic small market team trading a guy closing in on free agency.

[Bear Cub]

Sean Doolittle would make me happy!

[Tryptamine]

If we're close to the deadline and Baez and Soler still haven't gotten it together on a consistent basis I'd make a move for a bat, otherwise a dominant lefty reliever is the only move I really see necessary. Edwards' eventual appearance in the bullpen should bolster that and there's just no reason to go after a starter right now. I feel so much more confident with Lackey pitching a game 3 than I did with 2nd half Hammel/Hendricks last year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

With prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door and Alex Cobb nearing a return from 2015 Tommy John surgery the Rays could soon have a glut of starting pitching. Thus they’d be willing to deal southpaw Matt Moore for both a major leaguer and a quality minor league piece. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Moore is controllable through 2019 on a cheap contract but the former top prospect already has a Tommy John surgery under his belt and has run up a bloated 5.37 ERA in 120

 

I don't know about you, but I'd like to Bosio the horsefeathers out of Matt Moore.

[davell]

I'd love Moore, but I wouldn't give up much for him currently. Nor would I want to give up solid pieces during the season for a guy we're likely looking for future dividends out of, rather than current ones. If he's out there in the off season, I'd be much more into it.

[sneakypower]

...or they could just promote the MLB-ready in-house option fresh off a .324/.419/.657 May; could go either way, really