General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Big sale on Cubs gear at MLB Shop

 

https://www.mlbshop.com/chicago-cubs/t-36228622+z-808474-1125435766?SSAID=754508&_s=share-a-sale&utm_source=Shareasale&utm_medium=affiliates&sscid=b1k3_abdmm

 

Bleach was maliciously poured onto my Cubs World Series hoodie and I had to toss it. I've been checking back regularly, but they only have it in small. I need L or XL.

 

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/EUC-Nike-Chicago-Cubs-2016-World-Series-Champs-Blue-Hoodie-Hooded-Sweatshirt-L/202819145763?hash=item2f38f69023:g:yeYAAOSwy21dyAHZ

[Andy]

Big sale on Cubs gear at MLB Shop

 

https://www.mlbshop.com/chicago-cubs/t-36228622+z-808474-1125435766?SSAID=754508&_s=share-a-sale&utm_source=Shareasale&utm_medium=affiliates&sscid=b1k3_abdmm

I happened to stumble on this today and my wife has wanted a Cubs zip hoodie for some time. It was part of the sale, so that's one Christmas present checked off.

[Brian]

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I remember going up to Milwaukee for a game in 2005, Mark Prior was supposed to start only to have Glendon warming up in the bullpen when we sat down.

[NotSoSober]

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What a slap in the face to Detlef Schrempf

[squally1313]

I was thinking it was weird he went with Detlef Schrempf, and not the more obvious Chicago reference in Toni Kukoc. So I went to his wikipedia, and he grew up in Seattle, so that makes sense. His baseball section is amazing though. The guy had a 13 year career, 1997-2009, pitched almost 1500 innings, had a 4.7 fWAR season, and his "Baseball Career" section starts with the following line: "In September of 2006, Rusch was diagnosed with a life-threatening blood clot in his lung and missed the rest of the 2006 season." From there it just covers his basically failed comeback attempts, and ends with him being DFAed in 2009.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was thinking it was weird he went with Detlef Schrempf, and not the more obvious Chicago reference in Toni Kukoc. So I went to his wikipedia, and he grew up in Seattle, so that makes sense. His baseball section is amazing though. The guy had a 13 year career, 1997-2009, pitched almost 1500 innings, had a 4.7 fWAR season, and his "Baseball Career" section starts with the following line: "In September of 2006, Rusch was diagnosed with a life-threatening blood clot in his lung and missed the rest of the 2006 season." From there it just covers his basically failed comeback attempts, and ends with him being DFAed in 2009.

 

Man, Fangraphs shows him generally being a LOT more valuable than I would have assumed. I figured he was Marquis-levels of butt (though even he had a 3.2 fWAR season, WTF).

[UMFan83]

Anyone else pick up tickets to the London games that went on sale today? Was able to get tickets to the first game (too expensive to go to both)...cant wait though, should be a good time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Big sale on Cubs gear at MLB Shop

 

https://www.mlbshop.com/chicago-cubs/t-36228622+z-808474-1125435766?SSAID=754508&_s=share-a-sale&utm_source=Shareasale&utm_medium=affiliates&sscid=b1k3_abdmm

 

Bleach was maliciously poured onto my Cubs World Series hoodie and I had to toss it. I've been checking back regularly, but they only have it in small. I need L or XL.

 

STORYSTORYSTORY

[woodchip2153]

Anyone else pick up tickets to the London games that went on sale today? Was able to get tickets to the first game (too expensive to go to both)...cant wait though, should be a good time.

 

I'll be going

[Cubswin11]

Getting someone who was at Driveline is a good thing and the rest of the hires all seem to be pretty solid/definitely forward thinking.

 

 

[Omar]

Getting someone who was at Driveline is a good thing and the rest of the hires all seem to be pretty solid/definitely forward thinking.

 

 

 

someone tell me how I am supposed to feel about these so I can rant/rave with my office bros at lunch

[Transmogrified Tiger]

someone tell me how I am supposed to feel about these so I can rant/rave with my office bros at lunch

 

No one can ever know how good those folks are going to be until they get into a specific org and do the work, but the resumes involved are a promising sign of the team living up to their words about modernizing their player development approach.

[Cubswin11]

Lol

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Albert Almora's career wRC+ entering 2019: ~94

 

MLB CFs wRC+ in 2019: 94

 

I don't get where Sharma's coming from. Why would they need to say anything different about a *26* year old coming off a career worst season? If anything the news in there is Iapoce just basically said Almora's maybe got one more shot (back against the wall) with the Cubs and has to make specific (these) adjustments

 

Because the trend is worse than simply writing off 2019 and saying things are fine:

 

[squally1313]

Albert Almora's career wRC+ entering 2019: ~94

 

MLB CFs wRC+ in 2019: 94

 

I don't get where Sharma's coming from. Why would they need to say anything different about a *26* year old coming off a career worst season? If anything the news in there is Iapoce just basically said Almora's maybe got one more shot (back against the wall) with the Cubs and has to make specific (these) adjustments

 

Because the trend is worse than simply writing off 2019 and saying things are fine:

 

 

He's never reached that 94 wRC number against RHP. To echo TT, it's just getting worse:

 

2016: 93

2017: 82

2018: 84

2019: 76

 

Once everyone realized he didn't have Gold Glove ability in CF, and that his lack of speed basically led to him looking like Jim Edmonds 5ish times a year, his ceiling essentially became the short end of a platoon. For me, that's literally the highest of hopes for him. And yet...

 

2016: 114

2017: 138

2018: 101

2019: 37

 

You'd think after 2018 where he was barely above league average against lefties, he'd have realized that his 'back was against the wall'. Instead he fell off a cliff. Given the lack of any reasonable upside, there's just no point in making an effort with him.

[Brian]

Cubs Convention 2020 is gonna be lit

 

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[Cubswin11]

Albert Almora's career wRC+ entering 2019: ~94

 

MLB CFs wRC+ in 2019: 94

 

I don't get where Sharma's coming from. Why would they need to say anything different about a *26* year old coming off a career worst season? If anything the news in there is Iapoce just basically said Almora's maybe got one more shot (back against the wall) with the Cubs and has to make specific (these) adjustments

 

Because the trend is worse than simply writing off 2019 and saying things are fine:

 

 

He's never reached that 94 wRC number against RHP. To echo TT, it's just getting worse:

 

2016: 93

2017: 82

2018: 84

2019: 76

 

Once everyone realized he didn't have Gold Glove ability in CF, and that his lack of speed basically led to him looking like Jim Edmonds 5ish times a year, his ceiling essentially became the short end of a platoon. For me, that's literally the highest of hopes for him. And yet...

 

2016: 114

2017: 138

2018: 101

2019: 37

 

You'd think after 2018 where he was barely above league average against lefties, he'd have realized that his 'back was against the wall'. Instead he fell off a cliff. Given the lack of any reasonable upside, there's just no point in making an effort with him.

We’re only asking him to basically change every aspect of his game offensively from pitch recognition, discipline and approach all the way to his batted ball profile. I don’t see this being a big ask for a guy who’s been one of the worst players in MLB for two years and never really showed anything as a prospect.

[Cubswin11]

Because the trend is worse than simply writing off 2019 and saying things are fine:

 

Oh, I agree he's anything that concludes Almora is a weak offensive player and getting so many opportunities with the Cubs is a slap in the face of fans. That said, those year by year wRC+'s might be more of a range of outcomes for his age 26 season? There's little things to like coming off 2019 like a career high IsoSLG, .182 IsoSLG against RH, a probably overcorrected BABIP (.255), the still playable career 96 wRC+ vs LHs...He fits a few niches on this roster as a RHH capable of backing up all 3 OFers and making alot of contact off the bench

That BABIP is probably in range of where it should be for someone with his speed and GB/soft contact profile, as has been pointed out as well he isn’t that wRC+ hitter vs LHP anymore or you’re basically going to leave it up to the BABIP gods hands to get there.

[squally1313]

Given that there’s a handful of guys who kill lefties available every year for a lottery prospect or a one year deal, plus the fact that Almora isn’t actually a good defensive player, there’s no need for even his 96 wRC against lefties to take up a roster spot. I hope for his sake he can prove he’s somehow more than that, just not for the Cubs.

[Cubswin11]

That BABIP is probably in range of where it should be for someone with his speed and GB/soft contact profile, as has been pointed out as well he isn’t that wRC+ hitter vs LHP anymore or you’re basically going to leave it up to the BABIP gods hands to get there.

 

- I don't know the ins and outs of BABIP but have serious doubts there's a profile with a consistently expected BABIP in the .250s. Is there something I can read? The only xstats site I can find without running out of patience doesn't hate his 2016-2018 where his xBABIPs are .356, .325, and .335...I can't find 2019:

 

https://www.xstats.org

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k8d972fng34anlhbOJD9aUlVJgkR5mMesjDNNrmZ3Us/edit#gid=664839515

 

- I would say it's extremely unlikely he is that hitter against LHP anymore after such a big collapse, but also at 26 reaching 96 isn't the most unlikely outcome

 

- Almora's offensive success was always BABIP dependent. Last year his BABIP collapsed, the offense went with it but certain things like HR distance and IsoSLG were career bests. I don't think maxing out the power on a high contact CF in his mid-20s is the worst idea if just trying to get a positive contribution, especially if his BABIP can bounce back to a more league average .300ish

 

In general, he still checks alot of niches on this roster - RHH capable of backing up the entire OF including CF with a history of success against LHP. He even covers Theo's desire for more contact without requiring a starting job. Obviously I'm down for an upgrade or new blood with more upside, but also think there's a route to an effective 2020 Almora

Other than just trying to be contrarian I don’t get how you can actually think any of this if you watched him play and look at his numbers (not only the results but the underlying profile). His profile stinks and any success will largely take a ton of luck (like a high BABIP on horsefeathers contact quality/batted balls). He’s just a really shitty baseball player.

 

The .250 BABIP comment may have been a bit hyperbolic but with his profile it leaves him open to high variance there and he NEEDS to BABIP in the low-mid .300s to carry any value offensively. With the juiced ball I don’t think things like distance and ISO can mean as much either since I’d guess the ball has more to do with it than any real changes/improvement.

 

The data points you are citing of him being good are further in the past than the more recent pretty decent sample of him being ass. And even when he was doing well there were plenty on here pointing out the success was largely built on a shakey, underlying foundation and long term success was going to be tough with that profile.

[squally1313]

Ian Happ has a career 112 wRC, so I’m not sure what you mean by some improbable break out to become an every day starter.

[squally1313]

Ian Happ has a career 112 wRC, so I’m not sure what you mean by some improbable break out to become an every day starter.

 

It's easy enough to infer that Happ's not the one between the he and New Guy I'd be skeptical of with the bat

 

...is it?

[Cubswin11]

Other than just trying to be contrarian I don’t get how you can actually think any of this if you watched him play and look at his numbers (not only the results but the underlying profile). His profile stinks and any success will largely take a ton of luck (like a high BABIP on horsefeathers contact quality/batted balls). He’s just a really horsefeathers baseball player.

 

The .250 BABIP comment may have been a bit hyperbolic but with his profile it leaves him open to high variance there and he NEEDS to BABIP in the low-mid .300s to carry any value offensively. With the juiced ball I don’t think things like distance and ISO can mean as much either since I’d guess the ball has more to do with it than any real changes/improvement.

 

The bold stuff were all true before 2019 when he was mostly productive and are still true after 2019, with the last one still important to keep in mind given his relative youth and high contact ability

 

 

Remember how you were stumping for Whit Merrifield as a Cubs CF and leadoff hitter in 2020? Here are some season lines from Whit Merrifield before emerging as a ML starter in his late 20s around a BABIP intensive batting line and late blooming power:

 

Age 26 in the PCL (AAA): .265/.317/.364 over 594 PAs

Age 24 in AA: .270/.319/.391 over 353 PAs

 

These high contact hitters *are* very high variance especially in their mid-20's and it's not all doom and gloom. Merrifield found his power stroke at 25 in the minors. Coincidentally, Almora set a new pro high in HRs at age 25 and at the ML level. Neither is particularly fast, I've seen 28.6 ft/sec for Merrifield in 2017 and 28.5 for Almora this year. Neither are patient hitters. One actually plays CF...

 

 

As far as I can tell, the Cubs aren't trading for Marte and Betts or even Haniger aren't available. It would be nice to land Margot, a souped up Almora in alot of ways and yes I like him more, or some other young buy low CF but that still requires the Cubs doing something and probably getting lucky or trading someone good. The way I see it, outside of an established starter like Marte, most of the other CF options discussed don't really work without an improbable Ian Happ or New Guy break out offensively into legit everyday starters. In that sense, Almora's an already here version of that player with less of a claim to a starting job meaning more competition with more or less the same chance that everyone involved sucks anyway

The mostly productive stuff pre-2019 (really pre-June/July 2018) was based on garbage peripherals and underlying numbers. He doesn't have really high "high contact ability." He's at 77% for his career and between 76-77% last two years, that's good but not elite or high. He ranked 109th in MLB this year in Contact% of guys with min 350 PAs.

 

Almora hitting a whopping 12 HRs in this environment I don't think is any remarkable feat or indicator he's taken a leap/is a sign of growth. Even if Whit isn't fast, he's shown he can use whatever speed he has by stealing and base running. That's something Almora has never done and at least gives White another aspect of his game to provide value with. Whit has shown an ability to walk a little bit too the last two years (especially 2018), Almora has not. Whit also has a career 82% contact rate, over 80% every year of his career, that 3-5% jump on Almora is pretty significant when we are talking being at the upper levels of the contact range. Whit also has a demonstrably better GB and LD rates (26% LD and 37% GB vs 20% LD and 50% GB) and lower soft contact and higher hard contact rates. At this point I don't think we can reasonably say Almora can play CF anymore either, he was brutal out there this year by the numbers and eye test.

 

The comp to him and Whit is just wish casting on Almora's end at this point that something magically will change at 26/27 for reasons when the batted ball profiles were drastically different between them and Whit could use his speed. This would be like saying maybe Alec Mills turns in to a TOR starter this year because Arrieta once did it in the late 20s and they were both castoffs essentially.

 

Ian Happ has been better than Almora the minute he joined the team, so we should just go with him in CF vs going with Almora. He doesn't need to improve to be better than Almora. It would be nice but shouldn't be a prerequisite to take the job from Almora.

 

Almora is at a career 50.4% GB and 21.6% soft contact rate (both these numbers have gone in the wrong direction the last two years). Since he's been in the league there's only been 5 players to run a >50% GB grate and >21.6% soft contact rate (Eduardo Nunez, Mallex Smith, Dee Gordon, Orlando Arica and Johnathan Villar) all those guys have shown at least 1 (if not more of) the ability to hit for power, walk or that they're fast and can survive on a GB heavy approach and steal some bases. On a whole that's just some really shitty company to keep.

[Cubswin11]

Words like "elite" or "high" are your additions, I'm just saying he has an ability to make contact which is objectively true

Okay fine, it's still a tool that isn't all that special or ranks all that highly amongst his peers.

 

 

 

The point being made was not that these are basically the same players expect the same thing. I am not hoping for or expecting Almora to become an AS for the Cubs. I do believe the range of outcomes for these contact oriented, BABIP dependent hitters is pretty wide in the mid-20s and there are positive outcomes for Almora's age 26 season.

The underlying things like LD/GB rates, soft and hard contact were worlds better for Whit, plus his speed. He was starting from a better basis than Almora at literally everything and you could at least see how he could turn in to something useful. The foundation Almora is built on sucks, using Whit as a comp to prove he can grow isn't really fair because they have pretty different batted ball profiles, being BABIP dependent doesn't make them comparable. He's closer to Dee Gordon, Orlando Arcia or Mallex Smith on the batted ball data and he doesn't have those guys speed tools to make it work and they also suck mostly anyways as well. Finding some of these mid 20 guys with “BABIP dependency” to try and find some scenarios where they turned out useful should start with finding ones with more similar batted ball profiles to Almora. Whit does not fit that, was my point.

 

 

 

This is a massive over dramatization of the numbers and the conclusions that can be drawn from them. He's an average CF getting penalized in perception for not being the amazing defensive CF his 70/40 scouting reports said he'd be

Well he was really horsefeathering bad this year, everything backs that up. He's not overly athletic/fast/good thrower, him remaining bad with average being his ceiling out there as he ages seems like a completely reasonable outcome. Plus being amazing defensively kinda needs to be part of his game to support any value.

 

 

 

 

There's worse company to be in

It's pretty bad, especially when all those guys could bring at least another positive to the game to carry value like the power, BB, base stealing, or being fast to actually beat out GBs.

[squally1313]

Almora's career contact rate is 77.4%. The league average for contact in 2019 was 76.2%. Congrats on qualifying for the bare minimum of 'above average', and combining that with a terrible batted ball profile and below average speed. Truly, when your specialty is getting thrown out on a 6-3 by 7 steps, you want to make sure you're doing that at an above average rate.

 

Thank god he gets good jumps, as that's about his only marketable defensive skill at this point and hopefully brings him up to average. He gets a foot and a half head start on a group of players that are all pretty clearly faster than him...cool? He's not a good defensive center fielder, as shown by pretty much every metric.

 

Of those five players, Mallex Smith put up a 3.5 WAR and Villar put up a 2.0. They also put up 75 SBs between them (Almora has 4 in his career). Mallex Smith also put up a 118 wRC, so I'm starting to lose any sort of connection to Almora here. The other three players gave you 1400 PAs of -0.7 WAR. Yay! Seriously, put together a reasonable line in 300 or so PAs, since you at least admit he shouldn't be a starter, that would get you a single win.