General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So, yeah, Fowler and Zobrist have been a little lucky according to this data -- which is to be expected, their performances have been unreal. But, Bryant and Russell could actually be doing better? Yes, please.

 

As for just from the eye test, some of this makes sense. Like, yes, Soler and Rizzo have carried unnaturally low BABIPs, but I don't really recall too many instances where they've just been robbed. There's been some, sure, but not an inordinate amount, in my mind. But David Ross has been getting BABIP'd, through and through. His BABIP says so. This data says so. The line drives in gaps that have been tracked down that I've seen say so. I've seen it and been noting it internally. I haven't done the same with Soler and Rizzo.

 

Now what does this tell us? Who knows? From a cursory look, I think it probably does a pretty good job of telling us what has happened. Can it foretell what will happen, though? Maybe some. But, in the same way that Jorge Soler isn't going to keep a .213 BABIP, he's probably not going to keep a .236 xBABIP.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

And, let me just say that I hope this makes BABIP go away. I hate the stat so much. I can't even begin to explain how much I hate the stat. For one, people misuse it, and people use it far too often. Secondly, it is just a stupid, horrible stat. It really tells us nothing. Not all batted balls are created equally. We've known that forever, and then DIPS and BABIP come along and everyone seemed to want to ignore that. It's slowly going out of favor -- thank god. It's going to take statcast for us to drift away from it piecemeal. So thank you for that, statcast.

 

The general purpose behind DIPS is novel. Take luck and noise out of the equation. It can't do that, though. It is simply unable. But, then you hear people say, like, "Oh, Brendan Ryan has a .433 BABIP; he won't maintain that." No horsefeathers. And before BABIP existed, we could have said, "Oh, Brendan Ryan has a .411 batting average; he won't maintain that." It's not getting us any closer to where we need to be. This probably won't, either, because we can say, "Oh, Gordon Beckham has a .433 xBABIP; he won't maintain that." But hopefully people will learn to just shut the horsefeathers up about BABIP.

 

The progression of BABIP and DIPS has been hilarious to me, though. At first, it was, "No that can't be right," which turns into, "Well, maybe." It just seemed right. So, then it was taken as gospel by some. And, then, "Well, it doesn't work for heavy ground ball pitchers or heavy fly ball pitchers. Oh and guys that pull the ball a lot don't work either. And it can't account for speed. And you need to adjust for line drives. And yada yada yada." You just aren't going to be able to completely isolate skill and luck in baseball numbers. It can't happen. It won't happen. There are things we can do to isolate it some. We are going to continue to have more data that we can use to interpret things. But, sometimes a guy is just playing over his head. And sometimes a guy is Mike Trout. And sometimes you have Addison Russell horsefeathering things up by making diving stops.

 

And there are situations where you can use BABIP. Like, with Jorge Soler. Whether it is BABIP or xBABIP, he's not going to be this low forever. But, so what? Maybe a good tool would be to measure BABIP vs. xBABIP vs. a guy's career BABIP or league average BABIP. If something is out of whack, we might better be able to pinpoint why.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

A couple of last things and I'll quit rambling about balls-in-play data. So if you look at the xOBA and xBABIP heat maps in that fangraphs piece, you'll notice something: You are more likely to get a hit when you hit 'em where they ain't. So xBABIP is going to say that you are more likely to get a hit when you hit 'em where they ain't. But how much of this is luck? I don't think there is much luck in squaring a ball up and lining it into the outfield, but is there luck in where you place that liner? And how much luck? So do we really want to reward a guy for being fooled and hitting a blooper just over an infielder's head? And can we give a guy a little credit for hitting a liner, even though it was right to someone? This still isn't going to take luck out of the equation. It might be better than normal BABIP. But what if a guy hits 100-bloopers that xBABIP says should fall in for a hit, whereas another player hits 100 line drives right at the center fielder?

 

Then, there is just weird stuff with certain players. This might help us out there. For instance, with Anthony Rizzo, if you look at his balls-in-play data, it's not really that impressive, on average. He doesn't hit the ball that hard on average. He's not up there with the Giancarlo Stantons or Chris Davises in exit velocity. And he hits a lot of fly balls, and he's not a big line drive guy, and he hits quite a few infield flys. But, damned if he isn't one of the best hitters in the league. What's the deal?

 

Well, Rizzo is a weird guy. And he will go from month-to-month being a completely different player. Sometimes the power isn't there; sometimes he is hitting bombs every other day. Sometimes he will carry a really low BABIP for a month. Other times he is spraying base hits for a couple weeks. Then, you have him being the most patient hitter in baseball for a couple months, and then he'll become much more aggressive another month. And is there something in him, where he just has the perfect home run swing or something? Sure, he doesn't hit it as hard as Stanton, but he hits it plenty hard enough, and if you give it to him where he wants it, he will give it the perfect launch angle and knock it out of the yard. But, if he misses, it's gonna be weak contact. How do you quantify a player's ball-in-play data when he is such a weird player? So, yeah, on average, things don't look great. But he's mixing in some really bad with some really, really good. And even on the bad stuff, he'll get lucky and fall into a base hit every once in awhile. So it's not so bad. Maybe what's more important is all that really good stuff. This version of xBABIP might be able to account for that.

[badger]

That's about as impressive a quintuple post as I've ever seen Duke...

[Aaron_Kennelly]

That's about as impressive a quintuple post as I've ever seen Duke...

 

Yeah, I kinda came unhinged. I've been anxiously waiting for Statcast-based xBABIP for awhile now. So I got all hot and bothered.

[philosophizer75]

I kept waiting for the next post to be an educated response, and it was every time, except it was you delving deeper and deeper ahaha

[Aaron_Kennelly]

And for your next installment of "What's on Duke's Mind?":

 

Generally, the best course of action with BABIP is to assume everyone will regress back to the mean. It's usually right, because nearly everyone will. There will be guys on the fringes, your Darwin Barneys and Paul Goldschmidts, that won't. But, over enough of a sample, most guys will. It's just that it takes so long for this to stabilize that we won't really know that Paul Goldschmidt is Paul Goldschmidt for awhile. And by that time, he might have changed. What if he starts hitting more fly balls, or pulling the ball more, or loses some speed? Then the BABIP god we knew might not be a BABIP god anymore. But, how do we know for sure?

 

I don't think this version of xBABIP alone will be able to tell us. But maybe it stabilizes faster. And maybe we could combine regular BABIP and xBABIP and something like raw exit velocity and create some sort of panacea to help us understand BABIP freaks in a more timely manner. We can also throw in speed, pull data, shifting data, etc. We can at least get a better understanding.

[sneakypower]

Looking at the expected wOBA numbers:

 

(wOBA listed first / xOBA second)

Russell: .341 / .367

Bryant: .364 / .400

lmao .367 wOBA Russell is like a 7-win player and .400 wOBA Bryant is full-on MVP material

[Little Slide Rooter]

Is it wrong to think that the mini slump of the Cubs offense (other than the 2 Pirates wins) go hand in hand with the return to earth of Dexter Fowler (.231/.333/.308 in the past 7 games?) I'm not saying Dexter's to blame, but when your lead off man reaches base virtually every AB, you're bound to score some runs.

 

And while I was hoping for a 2005 D-Lee explosion out of him, his .282/.403/.400 May slash line is a more realistic expectation than his April insanity. And that's great, especially with Heyward showing signs of life.

 

What's my point? I don't know. Just general Cubs chit-chat, I guess.

[philosophizer75]

I've been wondering the same thing. Just been mentally noting the fact that fowler isn't ripping doubles down each baseline every 3 at bats anymore, and the offense isn't scoring as much. Hard to imagine the first not having anything to do the second.

[Clem Fandango]

He's still getting on base at a great clip, and Heyward has also been turning it around lately and getting on base at a great clip as well. Just cause Fowler isn't on base 50% of the time any more doesn't mean the team isn't being given opportunities to drive in runs. If anything, with Heyward turning it around they should be getting more opportunities to score runs, they just haven't been coming through.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Wasn't quite sure if this story was cool enough to get its own thread.

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/former-cubs-reliever-kyle-farnsworth-now-star-football-player

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Wasn't quite sure if this story was cool enough to get its own thread.

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/former-cubs-reliever-kyle-farnsworth-now-star-football-player

By Scott Krinch May 06, 2015 10:15 AM

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Wasn't quite sure if this story was cool enough to get its own thread.

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/former-cubs-reliever-kyle-farnsworth-now-star-football-player

By Scott Krinch May 06, 2015 10:15 AM

http://wp.patheos.com.s3.amazonaws.com/blogs/johnshore/files/2013/04/regret1.jpg

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I suck with math and percentages and probabilities. Today, I learned that if a team has a seven-game winning streak, the chances of them losing a game in the next three is no bigger than at any other time.

 

The Cubs have a nice lead in the NL Central. I've read a few times from one of the better posters on here, my boy David, that he thinks the Cubs have already won the division.

 

What I'm wondering is, how often will a team with this lead win the division? Is it like 80 percent of the time? Higher? I realize any team CAN blow a division lead, but how common is it?

[David]

I suck with math and percentages and probabilities. Today, I learned that if a team has a seven-game winning streak, the chances of them losing a game in the next three is no bigger than at any other time.

 

The Cubs have a nice lead in the NL Central. I've read a few times from one of the better posters on here, my boy David, that he thinks the Cubs have already won the division.

 

What I'm wondering is, how often will a team with this lead win the division? Is it like 80 percent of the time? Higher? I realize any team CAN blow a division lead, but how common is it?

 

With these particular teams in mind, based on projections, there is a 95% chance the Cubs win the division, whether you ask Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I think that answers the question. Thanks, sir.

[UMFan83]

Random discussion topic. If the selections happened today, how many Cubs do you think make the All-Star team? I'm not asking in a 'pick the top WAR guys' type of way. Based on your feel for how selections are typically made, who makes it?

 

Contenders:

Rizzo

Bryant

Russell

Zobrist

Fowler

Lester

Arrieta

Rondon

 

Of those, I think Rizzo and Arrieta are locks.

 

Bryant is actually 4th among qualified NL 3B in terms of WAR (and about the same if you called him a LF), but I think based on name value, team play and sexiness, he gets in.

 

Zobrist doesn't have as much name value, but he has enough and his numbers are overwhelmingly good enough to get him in the game.

 

Fowler is getting a lot of press for his start to the season, and TBH, OFs in the NL are a bit of a weak class overall. He gets in too.

 

Russell seems like an emerging All-Star but I there are quite a few quality SS out there this year, enough to not warrant a 5th Cubs position player AS. He is a snub.

 

The Cubs have one of if not the best staff in baseball, so I certainly hope Lester makes it, I think its more likely than not.

 

Rondon is iffy. Clearly he has the numbers and skill but not enough of a household name and his save number is low. Unfair to disqualify him on that I know but I think he's a 50/50 when Collins is picking guys...he will probably pick his guy over Rondon. I'll say he is snubbed, but 6 All Stars is still nice.

[Andy]

We'll end up with at least 7 and possibly 8. Rondon will get in during the wave of injury/Sunday pitcher defections. I would hope Russell gets in there too.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Random discussion topic. If the selections happened today, how many Cubs do you think make the All-Star team? I'm not asking in a 'pick the top WAR guys' type of way. Based on your feel for how selections are typically made, who makes it?

 

Contenders:

Rizzo

Bryant

Russell

Zobrist

Fowler

Lester

Arrieta

Rondon

 

Of those, I think Rizzo and Arrieta are locks.

 

Bryant is actually 4th among qualified NL 3B in terms of WAR (and about the same if you called him a LF), but I think based on name value, team play and sexiness, he gets in.

 

Zobrist doesn't have as much name value, but he has enough and his numbers are overwhelmingly good enough to get him in the game.

 

Fowler is getting a lot of press for his start to the season, and TBH, OFs in the NL are a bit of a weak class overall. He gets in too.

 

Russell seems like an emerging All-Star but I there are quite a few quality SS out there this year, enough to not warrant a 5th Cubs position player AS. He is a snub.

 

The Cubs have one of if not the best staff in baseball, so I certainly hope Lester makes it, I think its more likely than not.

 

Rondon is iffy. Clearly he has the numbers and skill but not enough of a household name and his save number is low. Unfair to disqualify him on that I know but I think he's a 50/50 when Collins is picking guys...he will probably pick his guy over Rondon. I'll say he is snubbed, but 6 All Stars is still nice.

 

 

Let's say that Russell makes it in.... there's a good chance that the Cubs opening day infield are All-Stars.

 

Cubs all-stars between 2010-2013: the sweet Marlon Byrd, Starlin, LaHair, and Travis Wood years

[Schwarber Fan]

Hammel should be considered, no?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

It's time to reel off about 12 in a row and just get so far ahead of everyone in the standings that people -- including players and managers -- feel obligated to vote our guys into the All-Star Game. Also, the borderline All-Star guys need to pick up their play for about 3 weeks to make their stats look nice and cushy. I'm looking at you, Addison.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://deadspin.com/10-years-ago-today-a-j-pierzynski-got-punched-right-i-1777849690

 

10 Years Ago Today, A.J. Pierzynski Got Punched Right In The [expletive] Face

[Banedon]

http://deadspin.com/10-years-ago-today-a-j-pierzynski-got-punched-right-i-1777849690

 

10 Years Ago Today, A.J. Pierzynski Got Punched Right In The [expletive] Face

 

Hahaha at the Sox fans in the comments on that article...

 

White Sox fan here. I was at that game and the Cubs fans were going absolutely crazy after AJ got clocked. They weren’t so loud later that inning when Iguchi hit a grand slam and they were blown out. To this day, AJ will go down as one of my top 5 favorite sox players.

 

Barrett has just as long a track record of being a belligerent horsefeathers as AJ, just not as successful.

 

Also, worth noting is Brian Anderson breaking Jon Mabry’s ribs with a haymaker.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Arizona Phil[/url]"]Prior to the game on Field #5, RHSP Aaron Brooks (March 2016 hip contusion) and LHRP Jack Leathersich (July 2015 TJS) threw "live" BP on Field #6 (one inning - 25 pitches each), so if there are no medical setbacks, both pitchers should be ready for Cactus League EXST or intrasquad game action within a week or so. This was Leathersich's first time throwing from a mound on a field since his TJS, but Brooks threw in an intrasquad game at Riverview on April 26th (he was shut-down after just two innings, and he hadn't thrown on a field since).