General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Tryptamine]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

79-81 is basically where I'm at. My bigger problem is that this is going to be one incredibly boring team to watch. No super exciting prospects, no mega stars, nothing to really get excited about until the 2nd half.

[17 Seconds]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.

Coming into the offseason they were at 74

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

 

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

I think you have to also consider that they were better in the last half than the first half, making that 74 perhaps not the true baseline.

 

that 74 number doesn't come from last year's win total, it's a new projection. it just happened to be the same as last year's win total

[Bertz]

https://theathletic.com/4128648/2023/01/31/sarris-ranking-closers-fantasy

 

The article is written from a fantasy slant, but Estrada and Merryweather get some sleeper love. Estrada's SSS results actually put him up with the tier 1 guys. Also I think Wick's marks are relatively encouraging given that we don't actually expect him to end up the closer.

[Sammy Sofa]

Saw this on CI:

 

 

Estrada drew both of these whiffs

 

Jed still keeping the inexplicable "nah, we don't want more guys who can throw fastballs" dream alive.

[d_money]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

[CubinNY]

Saw this on CI:

 

 

Estrada drew both of these whiffs

 

Jed still keeping the inexplicable "nah, we don't want more guys who can throw fastballs" dream alive.

I think that is primary reason they are valuing defense so highly. Perhaps also why they let Willy walk. They know what they have now and are building a strength to compensate for the perceived weakness. However, hard heat isn't the only way to get a K.

Edited February 4, 2023 by CubinNY

[Irrelevant Dude]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

Was that supposed to be a compliment?

[d_money]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

Was that supposed to be a compliment?

Yeah, Chip thought Blauser was a good all around player, blah blah blah. Blausers tenure with the Cubs was less than stellar. Not sure what Chipper is/was thinking

[Bertz]

 

On the pitcher side, assuming Jed pulls the trigger on another FA lefty, I'd be surprised if any of these guys have a shot at making the team. Merryweather and Estrada don't have iron grips on bullpen spots, but I think if either fails to win a spot out of ST it's more likely that someone on the 40 man (e.g. Sampson or Rucker) gets the spot instead.

 

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

 

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

 

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

[Tim]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

 

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

 

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

 

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

 

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

 

On the position player side? They're already at 19 position players which is a little heavy for current roster construction. 8 of those (including Morel) are outfielders too. Sure Heuer and maybe Roberts or even Hendricks could be 60 Day'd by April, but I'm not sure that creates opportunity for Deluzio in particular.

 

This is not to say that Deluzio has zero chance of making the roster through some combination of performance or injury, but I think the default assumption is that they're comfortable with the CF depth(Bellinger, Morel, Velazquez, soon Davis) already on the 40 man, even if it's not plus defensively.

[Tim]

 

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

 

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

 

On the position player side? They're already at 19 position players which is a little heavy for current roster construction. 8 of those (including Morel) are outfielders too. Sure Heuer and maybe Roberts or even Hendricks could be 60 Day'd by April, but I'm not sure that creates opportunity for Deluzio in particular.

 

This is not to say that Deluzio has zero chance of making the roster through some combination of performance or injury, but I think the default assumption is that they're comfortable with the CF depth(Bellinger, Morel, Velazquez, soon Davis) already on the 40 man, even if it's not plus defensively.

I agree that his chances of making the team are very slim unless there's an injury to one of the CF. I was just saying that they don't necessarily *have* to bounce anyone from the 40 man to add him.

[Bertz]

 

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

 

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

 

On the position player side? They're already at 19 position players which is a little heavy for current roster construction. 8 of those (including Morel) are outfielders too. Sure Heuer and maybe Roberts or even Hendricks could be 60 Day'd by April, but I'm not sure that creates opportunity for Deluzio in particular.

 

This is not to say that Deluzio has zero chance of making the roster through some combination of performance or injury, but I think the default assumption is that they're comfortable with the CF depth(Bellinger, Morel, Velazquez, soon Davis) already on the 40 man, even if it's not plus defensively.

 

I hope it's as simple as Morel being the guy. My understanding is CF is the easiest position on the field assuming you have the requisite athleticism. Maybe his half season last year of learning on the job and an offseason (and ST) of focusing on smoothing out the rough edges is enough to quickly turn things around. It wouldn't be that crazy.

 

I'm definitely on alert for at least a mild surprise on the bench though. The Athletic guys mentioning a few weeks ago that Madrigal or Morel are potential options to start at Iowa felt like it had some implication to it rather than just a "it could technically happen" sort of vibe. I think DeLuzio, as a ++ defender and a guy with real SB acumen feels like the most complimentary to the roster locks.

[UMFan83]

Pretty cool stat about Sampson:

 

[Bertz]

Pretty cool stat about Sampson:

 

 

Sampson is interesting. He changed quite a bit under the hood last year, both with the pitch usage and also the slider got more sweep-y. He was way lucky, but even if you give him the 4.40 ERA the advanced metrics think he ought to have had, that's really good for an optionable 5th/6th/7th starter.

 

I'm curious what the plan is for him if the team makes it through spring training with everyone healthy and effective. Long relief? Iowa? Do you sell high and trade him to a team that does get a couple nasty surprises during camp?

[17 Seconds]

i wanna talk to him

[Bertz]

 

It's going to be interesting to see if these have any noticeable team-specific impacts.

 

The shift rules should generally be a positive for the Cubs. On defense, the team's defense is backed up by speed and athleticism. There should be less worry about our players previous results being overly reliant on the shift. It's more guys like Brandon Crawford on the Giants (11th percentile speed, 93rd percentile defense) where you'd worry more. On offense it's harder to say, Bellinger and Hosmer and maybe Happ look primed to get some significant help, but I'd guess most teams have 2-3 guys who will get some significant benefit?

 

The stolen base rules are really hard to say. The Cubs have a bunch of guys who are pretty fast but don't steal many bases. Are those guys emboldened to run more now? Or are the beneficiaries guys who were already legit stolen base threats, who are now going to really pile it on? I'd lean the latter, which might be big for Nico but that's it. Defensively both Gomes and Barnhart control runners well, and I don't think we have any pitchers who are egregiously bad at holding runners anymore.

 

The pace of play stuff looks poised to benefit the Cubs, but you have to imagine the magnitude is pretty small. That said, the Cubs' current pitchers all work relatively quickly. Of the guys who project to make the OD roster (plus adding in Sampson and Hendricks since they might not be there on OD but still get significant innings), Adrian Sampson had the slowest pace last year at 23.4 seconds between pitches. The league average was 23.1 seconds, so Sampson is still 48th percentile in pace. Personally, I expect this to really horsefeathers with a couple of the egregiously slow relievers like Kenley Jansen, but not impact most guys. The good news is even if the impacts are wider spread the Cubs should be in the clear. Potentially most relevant, Giovanny Gallegos and Devin Williams were the two slowest pitchers in the league last year, and Ryan Helsely wasn't far behind. So the Cubs' biggest gain might actually come from difficulties for the Cards and Brewers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The pace of play stuff looks poised to benefit the Cubs, but you have to imagine the magnitude is pretty small. That said, the Cubs' current pitchers all work relatively quickly. Of the guys who project to make the OD roster (plus adding in Sampson and Hendricks since they might not be there on OD but still get significant innings), Adrian Sampson had the slowest pace last year at 23.4 seconds between pitches. The league average was 23.1 seconds, so Sampson is still 48th percentile in pace. Personally, I expect this to really horsefeathers with a couple of the egregiously slow relievers like Kenley Jansen, but not impact most guys. The good news is even if the impacts are wider spread the Cubs should be in the clear. Potentially most relevant, Giovanny Gallegos and Devin Williams were the two slowest pitchers in the league last year, and Ryan Helsely wasn't far behind. So the Cubs' biggest gain might actually come from difficulties for the Cards and Brewers.

 

I think there's a chance this has a pretty big impact but in specific and unpredictable ways. You have hitters who have become accustomed to the longer gap between pitches and the routines and ways of focusing that go with it. Maybe this benefits certain hitters who have better athleticism for repeating swing mechanics vs. guys who have their swings trained in a more robotic/less dynamic way(I'm not communicating this perfectly but hopefully the intent is clear). And on the pitching side, who is going to lose velocity by having to speed up the pace, and how much and how quickly? You could see previously effective pitchers become unplayable without the boost of those extra few seconds of rest every single pitch, but I don't think you can broadly make declarations about who because so much is individually dependent(conditioning, repeatability of mechanics, spin and other repertoire considerations, etc). e.g. Ryan Helsley might be just a guy at 98 v. 101 but Quintana may be pretty much the same at 88 v. 91.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Why enlarge all the bases? To boost offensive runs by shortening the path to run by 4.5"? Does it have any measurable affect?

[Tim]

Why enlarge all the bases? To boost offensive runs by shortening the path to run by 4.5"? Does it have any measurable affect?

Primarily safety related, but it actually did have a significant impact on base stealing in the minors where it was implemented.

[CubinNY]

We are running out of time for extensions for Nico and Happ.

[UMFan83]

Not sure if this is better here or in the general baseball thread but BA introduced some new defensive metrics today and they're quite interesting. The article linked here is free:

 

 

They have Dansby as the 2nd best defensive SS last season, but his range wasn't great (as I believe was suspected before this). His ability to make outs on plays within his range was exceptional though. Nico was a bit farther below but in the top 10.

Edited February 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[Derwood]

We are running out of time for extensions for Nico and Happ.

 

Are we? We have all spring training and all season

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We are running out of time for extensions for Nico and Happ.

 

Are we? We have all spring training and all season

 

Happ probably isn't signing an extension after opening day. I would probably argue he wasn't signing an extension regardless, but his clock is ticking. Hoerner isn't a FA until after 2025, you have all sorts of time to extend him. I'd guess it becomes much more likely later this summer if they can do it and avoid exceeding the LT, and if not then the offseason when they have a ton of dead money freed up and may be going over the LT anyway.