General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Sammy Sofa]

Who cares what his contact rate is when it's essentially all garbage contact.

 

This is like the longwinded way my dad will perpetually prefer a thousand weak Almora groundouts vs. how frustrated he'll gt over a single Bryant strikeout.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Who cares what his contact rate is when it's essentially all garbage contact.

 

This is like the longwinded way my dad will perpetually prefer a thousand weak Almora groundouts vs. how frustrated he'll gt over a single Bryant strikeout.

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[squally1313]

Almora's career contact rate is 77.4%. The league average for contact in 2019 was 76.2%. Congrats on qualifying for the bare minimum of 'above average', and combining that with a terrible batted ball profile and below average speed. Truly, when your specialty is getting thrown out on a 6-3 by 7 steps, you want to make sure you're doing that at an above average rate.

 

Yes, we have firmly established that Almora makes an above average amount of contact. I understand now that that's established what's secretly really important for 2020 is the degree, but also no not really. Also let's outright ignore K rates 6-7% below league average because because! The 2019 Cubs had a ~74% contact rate good for 30th and ~24% K rate good for 19th

 

Thank god he gets good jumps, as that's about his only marketable defensive skill at this point and hopefully brings him up to average. He gets a foot and a half head start on a group of players that are all pretty clearly faster than him...cool? He's not a good defensive center fielder, as shown by pretty much every metric.

 

You just read about the jumps maybe seconds before writing this post and they instantly became his "only marketable defensive skill at this point." This type of read and react analysis to his defensive metrics don't make it easier to buy your clearly sensationalized conclusions. Maybe DRS probably not but UZR was most definitely not meant to be read in a way that allowed for dramatic new conclusions each season. He reads like an average defensive CF by the metrics, considering the options average works

 

Of those five players, Mallex Smith put up a 3.5 WAR and Villar put up a 2.0. They also put up 75 SBs between them (Almora has 4 in his career). Mallex Smith also put up a 118 wRC, so I'm starting to lose any sort of connection to Almora here. The other three players gave you 1400 PAs of -0.7 WAR. Yay! Seriously, put together a reasonable line in 300 or so PAs, since you at least admit he shouldn't be a starter, that would get you a single win.

 

I don't really think this part has anything to do with anything, we're so far from why Smith and Villar even got mentioned in the first place by not me, but two things:

 

1 - So the backup CFer and OFer putting up a single win for less than $2 million dollars is...something to be upset at? This whole time it seemed like we were arguing that this guy couldn't make a positive contribution at all, and at the end the turns out that there's just not enough WAR to sate the vultures? Booooooooo...Enough for what even? Are multi-WAR cheap bench OFers required to win?

 

2 - I get the feeling that, despite the first acknowledgement I've been talking about him as a non-starter this whole convo, everything previously mentioned was from the perspective of Almora the starter anyway. Heck, within this last bit he's *still* compared to the absolute best seasons either of those players had as starter

 

We were ignoring the walk rate, so I felt comfortable ignoring the K rate too. When people walk, they get on base 100% of the time. Forgive me for not caring as much about a slow runner putting up a 1.88 GB/FB rate with a LD rate that has declined every year, but giving us an above average amount of...that.

 

I've been hearing about his unbelievable defensive instincts since the day we drafted him. He's been advertised as this stud defensive center fielder, and that was supposed to cover his lack of power, speed, and plate discipline. Well it turns out he also doesn't hit the ball hard, and now we're arguing about whether or not he is an average defensive center fielder. Cool!

 

I was asking you to give me a believable slash line, K/BB rate, whatever where he produces any sort of value in a back up job. We saw what he did last year. In 2018 he rode a .338 BABIP in 479 PAs to all of 1.1 fWAR. Tell me how he improves on that, and before you point to 2017 remember that he was heavily sheltered into facing a ton of LHPs, and we all know how that went last year.

[squally1313]

I brought up the walk rate because I'm interested in putting people on the roster who are good at the concept of offense. He makes contact once more every one hundred times than the average MLB player. We've established that this contact is poor contact, and we've established that once he makes this poor contact, he is bad at the goal of beating the thrown ball to first base by running. Of course there are other ways to reach first base, but I felt it important to point out that he is also (very) bad at that too. In conclusion, Albert Almora, bad at offense. I appreciate you throwing in his career wRC prior to the debacle that was last season (sure, why wouldn't we leave that out). Should we do trend lines? Should we point out that the only time he put up over 100 wRC was when he hit .342 against lefties his rookie year? Do you think that's something he can do again? For that question, unfortunately, I'm going to ask you to remember that 2019 exists.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's a body and he's cheap. That's it.

[Backtobanks]

He's a body and he's cheap. That's it.

 

With those qualifications he might be a trade target for us if he was on another team.

[Cubswin11]

I brought up the walk rate because I'm interested in putting people on the roster who are good at the concept of offense. He makes contact once more every one hundred times than the average MLB player. We've established that this contact is poor contact, and we've established that once he makes this poor contact, he is bad at the goal of beating the thrown ball to first base by running. Of course there are other ways to reach first base, but I felt it important to point out that he is also (very) bad at that too. In conclusion, Albert Almora, bad at offense. I appreciate you throwing in his career wRC prior to the debacle that was last season (sure, why wouldn't we leave that out). Should we do trend lines? Should we point out that the only time he put up over 100 wRC was when he hit .342 against lefties his rookie year? Do you think that's something he can do again? For that question, unfortunately, I'm going to ask you to remember that 2019 exists.

 

Bold: A summary of the first two posts

 

Italics: Almora put up a 104 wRC+ in 323 PAs the next season...ML wRC+ by year: 101, 104, 89, 64....Trending down...All things already said and agreed...Almora bad at offense...already said and agreed

 

Just so maybe what I think is clear: I would prefer a Betts, Haniger, Marte, or Happ/Margot situation just among CFers who may or may not get traded this offseason. None are likely to happen, and there's no clear options after those guys. No one is saying no to getting better on offense or adding better players than Almora. At minimum the team needs a 4th OFer who compliments the current starting Schwarber/Happ/Heyward OF depth chart, Almora happens to check alot of boxes plus no trade cost on a team friendly deal (very important things for the Ricketts). He's got a high variance style of offense and with it through age 26 he's offered a pretty wide range of outcomes, most of them usable on the 2020 Cubs and not less likely to happen in the likely much more tailored role. This is true of pretty much all potential trade targets not named Marte, Betts, or Haniger including Margot...Does it suck? Yeah, but at this point mostly because it seems like the fanbase gets more up in arms about not spending enough on a 4th OFer than not signing Gerrit Cole or Grandal or Machado or Harper or probably Betts next year!

My god. He’s a terrible horsefeathering baseball player. He has no use and there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest a bounce back or he has talent. He got significant ABs last year and the horsefeathers end of the roster of him Descalso and the other idiots could have very well cost us the playoffs. That’s the clear part of the roster that’s easiest to fix and improve on, that’s why we’re upset about this horsefeathers player more so than missing on Cole or whatever. His awfulness is clear and it’s easy to find a way to improve. Simply adding Pillar could work wonders over the horsefeathers bag Almora is.

[Derwood]

He's a body and he's cheap. That's it.

 

With those qualifications he might be a trade target for us if he was on another team.

 

Oh god, he would be #-o

[Cubswin11]

My god. He’s a terrible horsefeathering baseball player. Give it up. He has no use there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest a bounce back or he has talent. He got significant ABs last year and the horsefeathers end of the roster of him Descalso and the other idiots could have very well cost us the playoffs. That’s the clear part of the roster that’s easiest to fix and improve on, that’s why we’re upset about this horsefeathers player more so than missing on Cole or whatever. His awfulness is clear and it’s easy to find a way to improve. Simply adding Pillar could work wonders over the horsefeathers bag Almora is.

 

This is still the kind of melodramatic absolutes that are less about adding and more about piling on repeating the same stuff. Come on - you're among the first to pinch pennies and here's a guy who has done everything the 4th OF would be expected to do if the starter group stays the same. It's as cut and dry as it is that he's not an impactful offensive player and shouldn't be expected to be - true from day 1. Also CF is hardly the easiest position on the roster to fix and improve since it requires a trade - the easiest would be 2B with a large FA pool at the cheaper prices plus more in house options

I'm the first to "pinch pennies" because I'm trying to figure out moves that could potentially happen and help that are based in reality and not living in your horsefeathering fantasy land offseason of adding Cole, Betts and Lindor.

 

He's not a 4th OF, he was the 97th best of 100 OF'ers who got a min 350 PAs last year (36th of 36 CF'ers who got 350 min PA) and 177th of 188 OF with at least 100 PAs (63rd of 66 CF'ers who got min 100 PAs). He's been a bottom 10 OVERALL player in baseball since June/July of 2018, that's not a 4th OF, that's a guy who should be in the minors or playing in Japan or Korea. And the last two years he's found a way to find "impactful" ABs on the roster even though the design was him being a 4th OF type (800+ PAs), I don't trust that will magically change if he's around in 2020 because if he's on the roster he's gonna play and probably play too much when he shouldn't. The trade options are more appealing but even Pillar is a clear FA upgrade over him, he's been over 2 WAR 3 of the last 4 years and has proven over time he's actually good at defense and can hit lefties he's basically the LHH, defensive CF option Almora should've become. Pillar and Akiyama and Happ solves CF pretty easily and cheaply IMO. There still should be a way to improve 2B, because I agree there's plenty of options and it's a need.

 

Also I think it's pretty horsefeathering telling you are the only guy backing Almora here when there's multiple people showing how shitty he is. You've given no data other than wRC+'s from 2-3+ years ago, haven't refuted the horsefeathers batted ball data, or pointed to anything that backs up you thinking he's a fine 4th OF'er/LHH CF platoon guy other than BABIP variance and his HR's went far.

[jersey cubs fan]

How the horsefeathers is anybody extolling the virtues of Albert Freaking Almora on here? I thought we were past that nonsense.

[Cubswin11]

There are 90 starting OF jobs, he came in 97th. That reads a whole lot like a fourth OFer to me.

You know that’s not true and cherry picked the overall point and he was worth -.7 WAR. So yeah that’s not a 4th OF’er

 

So a year and a half out of the....4 seasons he's been in the MLs through age 25...Granted again: it's the most recent chunk

And the most recent seasons have not given any indicators he can turn it around or is good

 

The design? The Cubs haven't made a move in CF since they let Fowler go unless I'm missing somebody

Jay/Happ/Heyward in 2017 were CF options, Happ/Heyward last two years. He was always viewed as the RHH caddy to one of them. Yet he found more time (especially 18 and 19)

 

Kevin Pillar made almost $6 million dollars last year. Akiyama will make around that that this year, maybe a little more maybe a little less. So basically you want to spend At least 5x Almora's $1.8 salary to fix the 4th OF position with two 30+ players coming either off weak years or injury who also both have more claim to start than Happ anyway. Pillar hasn't even notched an OBP over .300 since 2017 when it was literally just .300! .303 the year before! This is your king?! This is a horrendously inefficient plan that might trick a few people because unpopular parts moved and parts moving is more important than what's coming in (so long as what's coming in is deemed cheap enough based on stuff) but yeah...No

Yes that would be my plan with limited funds and it has far more certainty of producing positive results than Albert Almora, 4th OF’er. Pillar has amassed positive WAR every year over the last few years and even though his profile isn’t great it’s better than Almora’s. 103 wRC+ vs lefties for his career, 105, 89, 150!, 89 last 4 so his floor is at least decent and there’s upside plus he’s the short side platoon dude/defensive replacement. Almora’s floor knows no bounds at this point.

 

Are you serious? Like this is blatantly false for no reason since multiple links went into posts specifically addressed to you just yesterday IIRC...Boooooo this one

Other than some defensive numbers on jumps and citing wRC+ what have you brought in data wise? Other than he once did this and I think he can do something? The batted ball data says other wise. What do you see in the numbers that point to him being anything?

 

Anyways I think we can be done here. Nobody is convincing anyone of anything. Almora is a shitty player and hopefully we have less shitty players on the roster next year and if it’s Almora hopefully he somehow figures out to be a good baseball player for the first time in over 2 years.

[ConstableRabbit]

As co-founder and Chairman of the Almora Sucks Club (Cubswin11 is co-founder and President), horsefeathers that noise.

[Derwood]

How the horsefeathers is anybody extolling the virtues of Albert Freaking Almora on here? I thought we were past that nonsense.

 

It’s just one person

[Cubswin11]

You know that’s not true and cherry picked the overall point and he was worth -.7 WAR. So yeah that’s not a 4th OF’er

 

Honestly, it sounds really true to me. After that sample sizes and groups shrink, but yeah if there's 90 jobs, another 60 spots to OF reserves, and he's 97th among all guys who got the most PAs then yeah...I don't know how that would read otherwise? What's the expected WAR of a 4th OF? So far -.7 isn't and a hypothetical 1 WAR from another poster wasn't enough so we're talking already an almoswt 2 WAR swing

An expected WAR of a 4th OF’er is a lot higher than negative horsefeathering point 7. 268 players logged innings in the OF last year, he ranked 252nd. 99 players logged CF innings, he was 93rd. 177th of 188 OF with at least 100 PAs, 63rd of 66 CF'ers who got min 100 PAs. 36 of 36 of CF with min 350 PAs. This isn’t that hard dude. Finding an upgrade over that isn’t hard nor is it a reason to stick with a guy because “he’s only a 4/5th OF’er.” He horsefeathering sucks.

 

 

You yourself called his style of offense "high variance." He went from a .32something BABIP in 2018, including a very productive first half, to a .255 BABIP. Now he's stuck at .255? I already offered a link to his past xBABIP and he wasn't getting really lucky or anything when things were going better for him, so yeah almost by definition that's a bounce-back candidate

Players BABIP dependent are high variance, but Almora is more than BABIP dependent since his batted ball profile sucks so much. It’s hard to see the highs getting all that high again with his profile. It certainly isn’t worth giving him the ABs to pray it works out.

 

Ah yes, the infamous Jon Jay/Ian Happ/Jason Heyward starting CF hydra Almora was totally expected to back up...Very foolish of me to forget that Almora was definitely not expected to become the starting CF with a 40 YO Jon Jay, the starting RF, and a 22 YO rookie Ian Happ still taking starts at 2B (28 that year) all definitely in front of him...I see all the reason to penalize Almora for then getting alot of PAs and starts on the way to what was his most productive ML season...Bad Almora! Usurper!

Jay and Happ put up more WAR than him in 2017, Happ and Heyward put up more WAR than him in 2018 and 19. You can see how the plan was for him to be the RHH caddy to them with some expanded time but he failed miserably as he was allowed to play more and he’s sucked vs LHP for 1.5 years.

 

Still this master stroke of signing 2 30+ YO bad and/or injured OFers to at least 5x the 2020 salary of Almora is terrible. Alot of bad spending to get a totally certain 103 wRC+ out of a guy who hasn't posted a .300 OBP since 2017. That is not the kind of move the Cubs need to make until ST, hardly the kind of move they should be prioritizing in December

This is more an indictment on Almora being so bad than it is Pillar being good but he brings far greater certainty and won’t cost more than $4-6 million. These are the exact margin improvements we need over last year. Him and Akiyama at $9-12 million combined with a little Heyward/Happ is a positive WAR CF rotation. Almora has lowered the bar so low that Pillar is a clear upgrade. I don’t know how you can call Pillar bad then still want to play Almora or think there’s any redeeming factors to him. Pillar is only going to cost $2.5-3 million more than him.

[squally1313]

Why is this ‘fourth outfielder’ spot an absolutely necessary part of a 2020 roster to begin with? Don’t Happ and Heyward have plenty of experience there, with similarly mediocre defensive numbers? Didn’t Hoerner get some time out there in the minors last year, with plans for more going forward? Ignoring the other ridiculous roster arguments/hypotheticals, isn’t KB more than capable of playing a corner outfield spot? Doesn’t Tony Kemp still exist? What is this role that exists for Almora that can’t be suitably filled by multiple other solutions already on the roster, to say nothing of cheap FA/trade possibilities? I count 6 guys with outfield experience on the roster right now, 3 with at least some centerfield experience, all of which I consider more valuable than Almora.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

My god. He’s a terrible horsefeathering baseball player. He has no use and there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest a bounce back or he has talent.

I'll diagree on one point. He was so horrible last year that it would be difficult to actually be worse next year. He'll probably "bounce back." The true definition of a dead cat bounce. That isn't a reason to keep him, to be clear.

[Sammy Sofa]

[Hairyducked Idiot]

These offseasons are so stupid. I miss the old days when we would have signed Kevin Tapani by now.

[Backtobanks]

These offseasons are so stupid. I miss the old days when we would have signed Kevin Tapani by now.

 

Tomorrow's headline "Cubs sign Kevin Tapani to a contract for league minimum".

[Brian]

Cubs 2019 luxury tax bill officially is $7.6 million. The NBC Sports Chicago article said that was based on $220 payroll, Cot's had them at 239.9. Not sure if MLB's official math is more lenient than Cots' or NBC is just wrong or part of that may be MLB taking out Zobrist's salary for when he was gone and Cots didn't?

 

I can now see the hope to reset this year and not get hit as a 2 time offender, because in 2017 with a similar $224 million dollar payroll, the New York Yankees as 15 TIME offenders paid 15.7 million.

 

Oh the humanity!

[Bull]

How the horsefeathers is anybody extolling the virtues of Albert Freaking Almora on here? I thought we were past that nonsense.

You have to realize that he is just entering his age 26 season. He has a proven track record and his best days are ahead of him. Arismendy Alcantara only played through his age 25 season and posted a -.5 CAREER fWAR, a number Almora is well past even given his disastrous 2019. Pitching phenom Adbert Alzolay is just entering his age 25 season, but with a -.2 fWAR last year, he'd have to meet his steamer projections this year just to own a career 0 fWAR.

 

Cubs legend Antonio Alfonseca had played only one season through age 25 and posted a whopping 0 fWAR. Almora has a career fWAR of 2.1 (2.4 bWAR) even after a down 2019. He projects to bounce back this year. Time will only tell if his career will endure as long as Alfonseca's 11 years of dominance (a career 2.2 fWAR through age 35 vs Albert's 2.1 through age 25) in this age of "next up" obsession with cost-controlled youngsters, but at this stage, he's clearly the better player.

 

I know this is a small sample size, but its a scientific one. I think we can all agree that the data shows that Almora will be at least an above-average player, and possibly 75th percentile or above. I, for one, look forward to giving him the chance to turn it around.

[Cubswin11]

I honestly can’t tell if that’s a serious post or an attempt at a joke

[Derwood]

I honestly can’t tell if that’s a serious post or an attempt at a joke

 

Consider the person posting

[Omar]

I think he's onto something. Almora and Alfonseca do have the same initials.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think he's onto something. Almora and Alfonseca do have the same initials.

And a greater than average amount of fingers between the two of them.

 

Really makes you think.

 

Albert Almora

AntoniO AlfonsecA

AAAOAA

http://www.symbolmeanings.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Inverted-Pentagram-Symbol.svg_.png

:shock: :shock: