Cubs 2016 #5 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2016 #5 prospect.

 

Cast votes for the players you think would be deserving at #5. You can vote for one player at this point, but you can change your vote up to the closing date.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1: Gleyber Torres

#2: Willson Contreras

#3 / #4: Runoff between Almora and Happ

[Cubswin11]

McKinney

[toonsterwu]

I'm fine with Cease (that upside does seem to be that good, and if the improved mechanics hold ... he could really explode in prospect rankings), but I'm going to with Candelario.

 

1. Defensive improvement/value - By most accounts, Candelario should, at the very least, be able to be at 3rd through his cost-controlled years, and perhaps into his prime. 3rd base is still a relatively weak position overall throughout baseball.

 

2. Slowly tapping into offensive tools - There's quality bat speed and enough loft that he has above average power potential. While I'm not sure he maintains his K/BB ratios from AA last year, he has shown throughout his career that he's not a haphazard hacker. Is there some tidying up? Sure. That said, the combination of his bat speed and a relatively disciplined approach leads me to think that he should be able to hit for enough average. I don't suspect he'll ever be a plus hit tool guy, although he might have the tools to do it. Do I wish he had more than a half season of plus offensive performance in AA? Of course. That said, let's keep in mind that, outside of that A+ stint a couple years back ... he's always been decent-solid offensively, and at an age that's awfully young. I hate age arguments holding any level of significance, and my main point is still more on tools and performance, but he's in his age 22 year next season ... and is on the 40 man and could be in AAA.

 

3. Concerns over his lack of body of work - It's valid. I'm not denying that, but ... he also went to AFL and was, according to one publication, the breakout prospect there (or words to that effect).

 

____

 

Despite making the argument for Candelario, I don't really love giving him the nod here. I tend to think Candelario's ceiling is higher than McKinney's. McKinney's floor is higher, but Candelario having success in AA last year should limit some concerns about his ability to perform up the ladder (now, can he maintain a high level of performance is another question).

 

I think the body of work, raw tools, positive developmental trend, and age are enough here to lead me to give Candelario the nod. My 2nd choice is Cease on upside, so if I forget about this thread and we are nearing a runoff, feel free to flop my vote to Cease if it helps (although with the way McKinney has taken a lead, I doubt it'll matter).

[craig]

McKinney. Guys who are true-blue hitters are hard to come by. Hitting high-movement/velocity mlb pitching may be the hardest and rarest skill in sports.

 

I have bat-speed concerns with Candelario. He's a year older than McKinney, and Tennessee was the first time in 6 minor league stops over 4 years above .745. I know he's youngish, a couple months younger than Schwarber, and he's not really all that much older than Russell, McKinney, or Almora. But his swing has looked average/slowish to me in videos, (amateur eyes and very small sample....), and I'd think with his good approach if he had the wrists and the bat speed, it should have manifested itself not so rarely over his last six stops.

 

We'll see what he shows this year. Hope I'm wrong and that he explodes and shows some serious hitting and power.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Eloy for me. Your precious McKinney will get you nowhere.

[jersey cubs fan]

I hope the Cubs sign an elite foreign player soon because they won't get their hands on another one via the draft for a long time, and this list is bumming me out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

lol how did Hannemann sneak on there already, I thought I was his biggest fan

 

I legitimately have no idea who to pick here.

[Cubswin11]

5 to about 12 are virtually interchangeable to me as of right now between Mckinney, Jeimer, Eloy, Cease, Edwards, EJM, Underwood and De La Cruz.

[sneakypower]

of all these names, i'd probably be most 'upset' if we gave up Cease

[craig]

5 to about 12 are virtually interchangeable to me as of right now between Mckinney, Jeimer, Eloy, Cease, Edwards, EJM, Underwood and De La Cruz.

 

That's pretty much how I feel too, I might sequence them differently every time I thought about it, and will probably readjust that the sequence almost every month.

 

of all these names, i'd probably be most 'upset' if we gave up Cease

 

That's probably a pretty interesting, and pretty helpful, way to do it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I guess tiering is the easiest way to go about it for me.

 

Cease, EJM, Jimenez, De La Cruz, Edwards

 

McKinney, Williams, Candelario, Steele, Vogelbach

 

Underwood, Caratini, Sands, Markey

 

Jeez this is not easy. I guess Eloy gets my vote here.

[craig]

I guess tiering is the easiest way to go about it for me.

Cease, EJM, Jimenez, De La Cruz, Edwards

McKinney, Williams, Candelario, Steele, Vogelbach

Underwood, Caratini, Sands, Markey.

 

Interesting tiers, tiger. That might be a fun discussion.

1. I'd probably move Vogelbach down at least one or more tiers from yours. A modest-power OBP-oriented DH doesn't value as high for me as those other guys

2. I'd maybe drop Edwards one tier. I love good relievers, but his chance to be an effective reliever is iffy given the wild-man syndrome. I think he's got a good shot to become a Strop or Grimm-profile guy, very good stuff but too wild to be a sure-thing as a long-term 7th or 8th inning guy.

3. I'd bump Underwood up a tier or two. The Cubs and so many of the scouts seem to like his stuff so well, I think he'll have opportunity and repeat-opportunities that lesser-stuffed overachievers like Williams won't get unless they are instantly effective when given a small window of opportunity. And I think that Underwood is so young, less than a year younger than De la Cruz, Sands, or Steele, and not much more than a year younger than Cease. We all understand those guys are going through development, and don't expect them to be finished products. The same, I think, applies to Underwood even though he'll be in AA and they'll just be starting low-A (Cease maybe not even that.) I think future Underwood may profile differently and perhaps more impressively than Underwood past.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

While the lists in the tiers aren't in order, Vogelbach and Edwards were the last additions to their respective tiers. I can definitely see more pessimism for them than I have.

 

I'm a long standing Underwood skeptic, which while maybe unfair given my placement of Cease, is why I have him that low. I need him to strike out more guys than the Williamses and Markeys of the world before I consider him a candidate to capitalize on his stuff.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

McKinney, by default, for me. I do really like a lot about him. Doesn't strike out much, walks a bit. He's a professional hitter. He's got a nice floor. Now, with the lack of power and defensive value, I am sure some of these guys below him could leap him rather quickly this year. I just don't know who will. I am a big fan of Eloy and Cease, but I'll wait until they prove it.

[craig]

..I'm a long standing Underwood skeptic... I need him to strike out more guys than the Williamses and Markeys of the world before I consider him a candidate to capitalize on his stuff.

 

His K-rate will rise this year.

1. I predict his K/9 will be above 7 this year.

2. I also predict his BB/9 will also rise, above 3.

3. I predict his K/BB ratio will also rise, perhaps up to 2.5:1.

[craig]

Tom, couple thoughts on that:

1. This year, Edwards was 2/3 of a great pitcher: High K's and incredibly low HR's. Still there aren't a lot of top big-league pitchers with BB/9 of 7. That's on par with the worst of Carlos Marmol, not with David Robertson. (Who had a 1.8 BB/9 this year, and has been under 3 BB/9 in 3 of last 4 years.) Edwards' walk rate is double Strop's, and half again higher than Grimm. Yes, it's only "one flaw", but for a pitcher to not have control of even your fastball much less any other pitch is not an insignificant single flaw.

 

2. That said, I'm super hopeful that Edwards control challenge is correctible, or at least manageable. He was 7BB/9 this year, but 4.2 and 3.2 the two prior. I'm thinking there's an excellent chance that he will make some adjustments, improve it a lot this year and beyond, and blossom into a Grimm or Strop-like weapon in our bullpen.

 

3. When his walk-rate was decent, his K-rate wasn't so great. K/BB last two years: 1.8, 2.2 Not that great.

 

4. Underwood K/BB last two years: 2.25, 2.35. Comparable or better. (HR rate, no comparison.)

 

I have Edwards and Underwood back-to-back, 6th and 7th. I'm very optimistic on both of them, despite their individual issues.

 

I expect Edwards to make some corrections, get his walk-craziness under somewhat better control, and be an effective reliever. But guys who are wild with fastball as well as curve and change, it's not always easy to be consistent. So I'm not expecting great closer or anything, I anticipate more the Grimm kind of role, use him when he's getting the ball over, take him out when he can't.

 

Underwood is 3 years younger, has much better command of his fastball, and will have opportunities to start, which may provide more WAR opportunity than a middle/setup reliever. Over the next three years I expect Underwood to improve considerably on his consistency and K-rate, and probably also HR-rate.

 

Guys in the 20-21 age range, like Cease, Sands, Steele, Underwood, DelaCruz, I don't expect them to stay the same. If they don't improve, duh they'll fail. But I think it's entirely plausible to anticipate that Underwood has development left for him. And, scouting people seem to expect that as well, so it's not just me. My understanding is that Underwood's delivery isn't always consistent; that hitters can tell his curveball sometimes. I'm projecting that if he can gain greater consistency so that his curveball is more deceptive, guys will swing more, connect less, his K's will go up, and his HR's will drop.

 

He and Edwards both have good opportunities to become very valuable pitchers for us.

[raw]

Underwood, McKinney, Cease, Jimenez, Edwards. Underwood won the coin flip. Plus, I think I like him more than most on this board.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Eloy, but I might be the biggest Eloy fan on this board.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Eloy, but I might be the biggest Eloy fan on this board.

I will fight you for that honor