Projecting the 2016 Cubs

[NOLA]

Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:

 

Using ZiPS, the Cubs have the top 3 hitters and 7 of the top 9. That's fun.

[Vinestal]

So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

 

Baez

Bryant

Heyward

Montero

Rizzo

Russell

Schwarber

Soler

Zobrist

 

Schwarber

Bryant

Rizzo

Baez

Heyward

Soler

Zobrist

Russell

Montero

[sneakypower]

Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:

Rizzo

Bryant

Schwarber

Heyward

Carpenter

Zobrist

Holliday

Piscotty

Grichuk

Soler

Moss / Adams

Russell

Wong

Peralta

Gyorko

Montero

Baez

Molina

[weis21]

So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

Baez

Bryant

Heyward

Montero

Rizzo

Russell

Schwarber

Soler

Zobrist

 

Rizzo

Schwarber

Bryant

Heyward

Soler

Baez

Zobrist

Russell

Montero

 

And Montero still OPS's .700

[bukie]

Which one of these "expert" opinions comes from a Cardinals writer?

 

No. 1: Is this the Chicago Cubs' year?

 

Jesse Rogers: Answering that question means answering it twice -- once for the regular season and once for the playoffs. Remarkably, the Cubs have gone to the postseason in back-to-back years only once since a three-year run from 1906 to 1908. Since then, almost every good Cubs season has been followed by disaster. Then came 2007 and 2008. The Cubs won the division each of those years but failed to win a playoff game in either. The Cubs will make the postseason in 2016. After that, it's anyone's guess, as the playoffs are a crapshoot. Considering the odds at that point are just 1 in 10, it would be hard to say this is the Cubs' year. But is this their best chance in decades? Probably. That's the most you can commit to when it comes to the Cubs. They have a horrible past to overcome.

 

Mark Saxon: I'm not willing to ride the Chicago Cubs-to-the-World Series bandwagon as eagerly as some of my colleagues. Even with Jake Arrieta's magical Cy Young season, they finished third in their division in ERA in 2015, and I'm not convinced John Lackey can replicate his 2015 performance in his age 37 season. The St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers all have deeper starting rotations. The Cubs have served notice that they're a team to be feared -- probably for years to come -- but they haven't guaranteed themselves anything.

 

Christina Kahrl: The question going in should be not whether this team is going to win the NL Central, but by how much they will do so. The Cubs have the best lineup in baseball and are ready to crank out massive amounts of run support, with the additional upside of Jorge Soler and Addison Russell being ready to add their names to the Cubs' burgeoning list of superstars. Adam Warren can make a huge difference if the team ends up giving him a high-leverage setup role. Anything can happen in a short series in October, but if Jake Arrieta isn't gassed by the time the Cubs reach the NLCS -- signing John Lackey certainly helps give the rotation the depth to be careful about that -- they can do it, even against the Giants in an even year or that Mets rotation.

[David]

jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right

[Gilby]

His defense last year worries me, but I seem to always forget how good zobrist was with the bat in 2015 whenever I'm just looking up stats for our guys.

[davell]

jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right

 

 

Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.

[David]

jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right

 

 

Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.

 

i agree

[treebird]

jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right

 

 

Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.

 

he's still a dumbass and a lousy writer, but he is pretty connected and well-informed for the most part these days.

[minnesotacubsfan]

You're on a bus, could be worse

[David]

So what do the projections look like now?

[Tim]

So what do the projections look like now?

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

 

A small gain to 53.6. If everyone stays healthy, this is a modest boost at best. Where this really helps us is if someone gets injured. And, of course, in the World Series.

[BrockLanders]

Weren't were projected for 94 wins at Fangraphs before? At 95 right now.

[David]

So what do the projections look like now?

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

 

A small gain to 53.6. If everyone stays healthy, this is a modest boost at best. Where this really helps us is if someone gets injured. And, of course, in the World Series.

 

Well, the redundancy should come into account in what is a median projection that theoretically takes into account downside like injuries (as well as upside)...their median should be higher if they are more protected against injuries.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So what do the projections look like now?

 

We are projected to win eleventy billion games.

[sneakypower]

we have 6 players who made at least 14 starts at cleanup last year (and Schwarber wasn't even one of them)

[David]

we have 6 players who made at least 14 starts at cleanup last year (and Schwarber wasn't even one of them)

 

I remember heading into maybe the post 2014 offseason saying we had a bunch of guys who projected to be 3-4/middle of the order type hitters and I remember goony causing a big fuss about it.

 

 

EDIT -

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/archive/viewtopic.php?p=3120428#p3120428

 

I was a little off on the timeline. It was a little earlier in 2014.

 

EDIT 2 - http://www.northsidebaseball.com/archive/viewtopic.php?p=3120435#p3120435 haha

 

EDIT 3 - this thread is horsefeathering great

 

Len "cubs 3b kris Bryant leads baseball with 47 home runs, ahead of four other cubs who each have 39"

JD: "Len I have to remind you that while that is cool , we lost a lot of games in 2013"

Len: "interesting, I'll have to fact check that because it's so cool now that I literally don't care."

JD: "ok just for the record the cubs were not good years ago."

[Derwood]

Someone needs to remind IMB's fictional JD never to go full-Kyle

[Sammy Sofa]

Lotta shrugging in that thread.

[David]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/your-stance-on-the-team-projections-national-league/

[Tracer Bullet]

I'm in the 5%! (of people who think the Cubs are projected too low by 4 games)

[Cubswin11]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/your-stance-on-the-team-projections-national-league/

Looking at those ZIPs projections..... The Cubs only play one team in April projected to be over .500. 3 games vs a team projected over .500 (Cardinals), 6 games vs rough .500 (Angels and D'Backs), and 15 (10 of which are at home) against projected under .500 (Brewers, Reds x2, Rockies and Braves).

[Banedon]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/nl-preview-cubs-now-hunted/