Minor League Musings

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[lfg26]

I feel like you guys might be underrating how elite his plate discipline and baserunning has been. All of the concerns are duly noted and also a bit worrisome. Incredible plate discipline and baserunning might not be quite as sexy as slugging, but if you're talking about an OBP over .400 and 50+ steals added to good defense, then you might have something worthwhile. I've been trying to think of the best comp, and honestly, I think Ricky Henderson LITE isn't too far off. Maybe a bit less speed and quite a bit less power, but I really love the OBP and steals the man has been showing off.

I agree that he could be good trade bait because we obviously have PCA, but I think he might be much more valuable than the return we would get for him at this point (without him getting serious prospect ranking status yet). Who knows.... an outfield of Kepley in left, PCA in center, and Hartshorn in right has fun potential for sure. 

[lfg26]

More fun Kepley stats:

-1st in all MiLB with 62 runs (2nd place has 58 runs)

-4th (tied) in all MiLB with 51BB

-Out of the 33 players in MiLB with at least 40BB, Kepley has the least amount of K (33) ...and Hartshorn has the 2nd least (40BB vs 36K)!!

-3rd (tied) in all MiLB with 31 SB

-Only 1 CS.... Here's the SB/CS for the 3 other players with at least 31 SB: (36/12, 36/7, 31/8)

-13th in all MiLB (min 200 PA) with a .439 OBP

I know I'm cherry picking a bit, but I enjoy players that have truly elite elements to their game. And no, I'm not related to Kepley or anything.... I had him 5th in my recent ranking. lol

 

[lfg26]

On 6/5/2026 at 8:36 AM, Bertz said:

Yeah after clearing up some of the infield logjam Kepley sould be next on the sell high list.  To your point it's not totally fair but the existence of PCA does materially impact how much value he can provide here.

I don't know if it's bad swing decisions/passivity or if it's good swing decisions but a swing that's mediocre.

I think you look at what he's doing and you can see paths to something like Brett Gardner, Steven Kwan, or Nico Hoerner.  But I think you can also see what he's doing and imagine some Sal Frelick/Chad Durbin type who has a little success and implodes once pitchers start challening him consistently.

The defense and baserunning provide some floor even in that scenario, but I'm nervous enough about the bat that when I rank guys in the system I definitely have Kepley much closer to 10 than 1 despite the production to date.

I gotta call out some of the player comparisons I've seen here to Kepley that just don't make any sense. Kepley's elite traits are plate discipline and baserunning, along with a solid hit tool and above average defense (and below average slugging).

Jeff McNeil: well below average plate discipline and baserunning (probably superior hit tool, not a very good comp imo)

Brett Gardner: OK at drawing BBs, but strikes out a ton (superior slugging)

Steven Kwan: pretty good comp, but only above average plate discipline and baserunning (Kepley might be better at both)

Nico: below average plate discipline (probably superior hit tool + defense)

Sal Frelick: below average plate discipline

I feel like any good comp for Kepley has to have above average plate discipline and baserunning at the very least. Kepley isn't like McNeil and Nico where their OBP is almost all from their hits. That leaves Steven Kwan as the best comp I've seen mentioned. I think maybe like Dexter Fowler with less power, and more speed isn't too far off. Or Rickey Henderson LITE.... I said LITE!!! ....I know he's not near Ricky Henderson. lol

 

Edited June 7 by lfg26

[craig]

On 6/5/2026 at 10:48 AM, Outshined_One said:

....As I mentioned previously, I think a promotion to AA would help answer a lot of these questions, and how much power he actually has will dictate whether he profiles as a useful bench asset or as an everyday CF.

At the moment, I'm glad he wasn't promoted.  He's had hots and colds at South Bend, and we can see it's the guy, not the level.  *IF* we had hypothetically promoted him when he touched up over .300 and over .900 OPS for a day or two, and then he'd had the same slump in AA that he's had at South Bend, I'd have been falsely saying "Oh, he can't handle AA, he was just an A-ball fraud."  But now instead I can more clearly see that his freeze is a slump, it's him, not the level.  

[lfg26]

1 hour ago, craig said:

At the moment, I'm glad he wasn't promoted.  He's had hots and colds at South Bend, and we can see it's the guy, not the level.  *IF* we had hypothetically promoted him when he touched up over .300 and over .900 OPS for a day or two, and then he'd had the same slump in AA that he's had at South Bend, I'd have been falsely saying "Oh, he can't handle AA, he was just an A-ball fraud."  But now instead I can more clearly see that his freeze is a slump, it's him, not the level.  

He should still be promoted. You don't want to hold down a 22 year old with elite talents for too long. If they're a teenager, sure, maybe you don't want to hurt their confidence by pushing them too quickly. But if an older player is showing elite instincts, my opinion is that you shouldn't shield them from failure. Let's see if they're legit or not, as soon as possible. Because if they're 24-25 when they first reach AAA, their momentum/dreams might be too damaged for them to be a productive MLB player at that point. I'm a big fan of looking at prospects from a psychological perspective. 

BTW, Craig/OutshinedOne/CaliforniaRaisin, I've read damn near every message and post on this website for the last 20+ years. Even back in the days of Goony and Rawaction. I always have just been a lurker.... until now. 🙂

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A couple of Cubs on this week’s BA Hot Sheet:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

[Bertz]

Good writeup from Brett

I feel like broadly there's some arms at Tenn that should be at Iowa if not immediately pretty soon.  Santy feels clear since he'salready a reliever.  But Kipp, Schultz, Dean and Schlaffer are all guys who are probably slim bets to make it as SPs but can probably make it as a RPs and are frankly old enough that we should just pull the rip cord.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

37 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Good writeup from Brett

I feel like broadly there's some arms at Tenn that should be at Iowa if not immediately pretty soon.  Santy feels clear since he'salready a reliever.  But Kipp, Schultz, Dean and Schlaffer are all guys who are probably slim bets to make it as SPs but can probably make it as a RPs and are frankly old enough that we should just pull the rip cord.

Jace Beck and Tyler Ras too. Probably ahead of Schultz and Schlaffer.

They might be waiting for some of their affiliates to clinch a playoff spot before being the promotions begin.

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Jace Beck and Tyler Ras too. Probably ahead of Schultz and Schlaffer.

They might be waiting for some of their affiliates to clinch a playoff spot before being the promotions begin.

Yeah Beck especially already got a weekend in Iowa.  Move him up full time.

I assume some of it too is trying to not dump veteran arms too soon.  I wonder if we have to wait until July when trades are more on the table.  I'd start shortening a few of these guys up at Tenn (most are doing multi-inning relief or short starts) though in prep for being pure 1-inning guys immediately at Iowa.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

I would honestly give him a couple weeks at Myrtle.  He's missed a ton of time and SB was already a somewhat aggressive assignment.  Give him this weekend in AZ and like 2-3 weeks at Myrtle, he can go to SB in early July.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

For reference, Fangraphs has Wiggins as a 50 and Caple, Reid, Wing and Sanders as 40+.

[Bertz]

34 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

For reference, Fangraphs has Wiggins as a 50 and Caple, Reid, Wing and Sanders as 40+.

Speaking of Will Sanders, he had a 50% whiff rate on his split at AAA.  8th out of 47 guys at AAA who've thrown at least 50 splitters.  I'm hopeful for a SP but there's a very obvious path to bullpen success there.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[craig]

Longenhagens has Hartshorn with "average" power.  That's the hinge evaluation. 

• Premise of average power for a corner/1B guy, it's not logical for Longenhagen to rank him high. 
• How highly he will be ranked by others, and how good he will eventually be, that all hinges on the power.  Some of the recent HR's, they seem like above average power to my amateur eye.  Guessing some other scouts will evaluate the power more favorably, and Longenhagen may boost his power score in due time.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Quote

But Hartshorn cocks his upper half, generates excellent torque and knows how to drop the bat head and generate power. His best home runs are truly majestic shots that seem ready to threaten the light towers.

Average at best

[JBears79]

I really didnt understand the average power evaluation by Logenhagen. I see pretty above average in game power.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I really didnt understand the average power evaluation by Logenhagen. I see pretty above average in game power.

Also gave him a 45 arm when there have been other reports it's well above average 

[muntjack]

I know that because he isn't an elite, up- the-middle defender,  he won't ever get the uber-prospect hype that comes with being a projectable bat with a great glove,  but I'd prefer a switch-hitting Albert Pujols, anyhow.