Minor League Musings

[sneakypower]

i mentally omitted SS, because their value immediately gets badly diminished here for 2+ years

 

which for Law's updated list, leaves

Giolito, Urias, Glasnow, Devers, Benintendi, Reyes, Moncada, Snell, Bregman (ranked higher than WC)

 

- Urias is tempting, but innings management is a worry for partially throttling his value

- Giolito has a near-5 RA in AA with shaky periphs, but he has been un-dongable, to be fair...he & Reyes, Glasnow are all tantalizing before the F pitchers mantra overcomes

- Devers is still just the faint dream of Cano

- Benintendi looks like Flyin' Hawaiian with a little more bat

- Moncada looks like Joe horsefeathering Morgan

 

still, mostly for organizational fit and team-preferred hitting approach i prefer Contreras to all but Moncada and possibly Urias, Bregman

 

but i have in the past stated preferences toward keeping Castro & Soler over eminently better talents in the end, so it might be hot-streak intoxication clouding my judgment...also i should include disclaimer that i don't have any way of knowing if Contreras has Doumit/Gattis-level problems with receiving that might prove terminal

Edited May 31, 2016 by sneakypower

[Tim]

i mentally omitted SS, because their value immediately gets badly diminished here for 2+ years

 

which for Law's updated list, leaves

Giolito, Urias, Glasnow, Devers, Benintendi, Reyes, Moncada, Snell, Bregman (ranked higher than WC)

 

- Urias is tempting, but innings management is a worry for partially throttling his value

- Giolito has a near-5 RA in AA with shaky periphs, but he has been un-dongable, to be fair...he & Reyes, Glasnow are all tantalizing before the F pitchers mantra overcomes

- Devers is still just the faint dream of Cano

- Benintendi looks like Flyin' Hawaiian with a little more bat

- Moncada looks like Joe [expletive] Morgan

 

still, mostly for organizational fit and team-preferred hitting approach i prefer Contreras to all but Moncada and possibly Urias, Bregman

 

but i have in the past stated preferences toward keeping Castro & Soler over eminently better talents in the end, so it might be hot-streak intoxication clouding my judgment...

I figured Urias was disqualified from your list because he's had a day of service time.

[sneakypower]

i more meant to communicate that i disqualify players who've been in the league for a short while but haven't technically surpassed rookie limits, like if Corey Seager still qualifies or whatever; so to omit guys who can now already be considered "proven MLB talent"

 

so consider Joey Gallo among the list if you wish

[Tim]

also i should include disclaimer that i don't have any way of knowing if Contreras has Doumit/Gattis-level problems with receiving that might prove terminal

This is really the key. If you told me he's got Ross-level receiving skills, I might put him as the #2 guy in baseball right now behind Moncada. But if he has Castillo-level receiving skills, he's much further down the list.

[Tryptamine]

I would gladly give up Contreras plus for Victor Robles. In my eyes, it's between Moncada and Robles for #1 prospect in 2017.

[sneakypower]

Victor Robles has those sweet IsoDs but then you realize he's somehow been plunked more times than he's walked

[Northsider]

Taillon and Bregman for me.

 

I'd love to get Bosio a top-tier young talent for once, and Taillon is that right now. (Arrieta was older, and hadn't been thought of as a top talent for several years at the time).

 

Bregman looks like what would happen if Rogers Hornsby possessed a younger Baez (BB%/K%, Hornsby career, 11.0%/7.2%; Bregman 2016, 12.0%/7.8%. Bregman's ISO is .326, Baez was .344 at AAA). Especially since right now the weakest hitting league in AA is the Texas league, with .320 wOBA above average (~.324 is average for the other two leagues).

[Northsider]

Ewww pre-surgeried with already diminished velocity pitching. Not even Glasnow?

 

You may be right. My concern was the Marmol-esque walk rate at AAA so far, and I'd certainly want assurance from scouts that Marmol is a poor comparison. IIRC, control is one of the hardest things for coaches to help a player with.

 

That said, looking at major league starters since 95 with a K/9 of at least 10 and BB/9 at least 4 gives Nomo, Colon, Pomeranz, Archer, Salazar, and Wood (Wood appears 3 times). That's 8 seasons with those stats, and only Archer (projected) and Nomo will have had seasons with a WAR below 4. Salazar and Pomeranz are projected to reach 5 WAR (and will be the only ones to do so). So Glasnow is in very good company from that perspective.

 

So ... maybe. I'd still worry that the control would screw him up against the better hitting teams, which has playoff implications.

 

As for Taillon, I wasn't aware of the velocity drop. If that's deliberate to improve his control, it's working and I'd still do it - Hendricks with better stuff or Corey Kluber would be viable comparisons. If the velocity drop isn't explained by some deliberate change, then Taillon's just an injury risk (and not worth Contreras).

[craig]

Since this is a musings thread ... I know I really shouldn't be intrigued with Zagunis. He's exactly the type of guy that in the past, I wouldn't be that intrigued with. Still ... I can't help but be intrigued with him. He's hitting .333/.444/.520 in May. He's hitting for enough power, showing the same solid approach. He should be strong defensively. Perhaps he never becomes a star, but I can't help but think there's a potentially solid pro that has the chance to be more than a depth OF. He just does enough of everything ... dunno, I really shouldn't like him as much as I do. As intriguing as Candelario has been this month, Zagunis has been that much better.

 

I really do hope Candelario keeps it up. Still think he could be our most intriguing non-Torres trade chip if he keeps hitting - 3rd base still isn't a deep and strong position.

 

Agree that Zagunis looks like an interesting prospect. Obviously no standout tools, so he's not a significant trade chip. But a guy who's consistently .400+ OBP, consistently .800+ OPS, and consistently at least .400 slugging, and who has at least a little athleticism, that's got to be a candidate to be a useful major leaguer. Got a chance to be a professional hitter.

 

And he's still young enough that there's some chance for improvement. A little more power? A little more drive and less ground balls? Sometimes it's the best and smartest hitters who are best able to identify and adjust to minimize their flaws.

 

This will sound dumb, but he reminds me a little of a Cardinals prospect. Seemed they often had these college players, who weren't big tools guys and were never highly rated prospects, and who didn't come up young. But when some need created an opportunity, they so often seemed to have a next-man-up who was able to play solid, professional baseball. Could imagine Zagunis having a trajectory like that.

[mul21]

Since this is a musings thread ... I know I really shouldn't be intrigued with Zagunis. He's exactly the type of guy that in the past, I wouldn't be that intrigued with. Still ... I can't help but be intrigued with him. He's hitting .333/.444/.520 in May. He's hitting for enough power, showing the same solid approach. He should be strong defensively. Perhaps he never becomes a star, but I can't help but think there's a potentially solid pro that has the chance to be more than a depth OF. He just does enough of everything ... dunno, I really shouldn't like him as much as I do. As intriguing as Candelario has been this month, Zagunis has been that much better.

 

I really do hope Candelario keeps it up. Still think he could be our most intriguing non-Torres trade chip if he keeps hitting - 3rd base still isn't a deep and strong position.

 

Agree that Zagunis looks like an interesting prospect. Obviously no standout tools, so he's not a significant trade chip. But a guy who's consistently .400+ OBP, consistently .800+ OPS, and consistently at least .400 slugging, and who has at least a little athleticism, that's got to be a candidate to be a useful major leaguer. Got a chance to be a professional hitter.

 

And he's still young enough that there's some chance for improvement. A little more power? A little more drive and less ground balls? Sometimes it's the best and smartest hitters who are best able to identify and adjust to minimize their flaws.

 

This will sound dumb, but he reminds me a little of a Cardinals prospect. Seemed they often had these college players, who weren't big tools guys and were never highly rated prospects, and who didn't come up young. But when some need created an opportunity, they so often seemed to have a next-man-up who was able to play solid, professional baseball. Could imagine Zagunis having a trajectory like that.

 

Is he still catching or am I confusing him with someone else? If so, the bolded sounds a lot like Jason Kendall.

[David]

Since this is a musings thread ... I know I really shouldn't be intrigued with Zagunis. He's exactly the type of guy that in the past, I wouldn't be that intrigued with. Still ... I can't help but be intrigued with him. He's hitting .333/.444/.520 in May. He's hitting for enough power, showing the same solid approach. He should be strong defensively. Perhaps he never becomes a star, but I can't help but think there's a potentially solid pro that has the chance to be more than a depth OF. He just does enough of everything ... dunno, I really shouldn't like him as much as I do. As intriguing as Candelario has been this month, Zagunis has been that much better.

 

I really do hope Candelario keeps it up. Still think he could be our most intriguing non-Torres trade chip if he keeps hitting - 3rd base still isn't a deep and strong position.

 

Agree that Zagunis looks like an interesting prospect. Obviously no standout tools, so he's not a significant trade chip. But a guy who's consistently .400+ OBP, consistently .800+ OPS, and consistently at least .400 slugging, and who has at least a little athleticism, that's got to be a candidate to be a useful major leaguer. Got a chance to be a professional hitter.

 

And he's still young enough that there's some chance for improvement. A little more power? A little more drive and less ground balls? Sometimes it's the best and smartest hitters who are best able to identify and adjust to minimize their flaws.

 

This will sound dumb, but he reminds me a little of a Cardinals prospect. Seemed they often had these college players, who weren't big tools guys and were never highly rated prospects, and who didn't come up young. But when some need created an opportunity, they so often seemed to have a next-man-up who was able to play solid, professional baseball. Could imagine Zagunis having a trajectory like that.

 

Is he still catching or am I confusing him with someone else? If so, the bolded sounds a lot like Jason Kendall.

 

he was compared to jason kendall coming out of the draft iirc

 

but he is playing OF now

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Zagunis is at .306/.416/.450

 

I can get down with that. Obviously the slugging is the concern with him being in a corner outfield spot. But with what could be a near .400 OBP, he really only needs to hit about 10 bombs a year for me to be on board.

[Cubswin11]

Why was Zagunis moved off catcher? Because that offensive profile absolutely plays there. As a corner OF he's more of a 4/5th or weak side platoon guy. I do like him quite a bit just not a ton as a OF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

New market efficiency is rotating half your position players in at catcher.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Willson Conteras and Ryan Kellogg on the BA Prospect Hot Sheet this week: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-3/#1pQDsJl2gaggkkgK.97

 

5. Willson Contreras, c, Cubs

 

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .455/.520/1.045 (10-for-22), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: An early-career third baseman, Contreras has embraced catching since first donning a chest protector in 2012. He enjoyed a breakout 2015 that included a Southern League batting title, and his production at the outset of this season indicates that he’s no fluke. Contreras has hit .337 and ranks fourth in the Pacific Coast League with a .427 on-base percentage. (ME)

 

20. Ryan Kellogg, lhp, Cubs

 

Team: low Class A South Bend (Midwest)

Age: 22

Why He’s Here: 2-0, 2.13, 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 15 SO, 1 BB

 

The Scoop: The big Canadian lefthander turned down the hometown Blue Jays to attend Arizona State and was drafted by the Cubs in the fifth round last June. Though he’s 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Kellogg is more about pitchability than blow-it-by-you stuff, with a fastball that sits 88-91 mph with good sink. (VLC)

[sneakypower]

he's grrrreat!

[Tim]

he's grrrreat!

To be fair on this one, I recall Tom's position being that Kellogg had the ability to add a couple ticks and that he could be a really good prospect if he did.

[CubsWin]

he's grrrreat!

I didn't take that as a comment on Tom's like of Kellogg being overzealous. He was just doing the Tony the Tiger reference because of Ryan's last name. Or am I off?

[sneakypower]

yeah i was just making a cereal joke dudes cmon get with it

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kyle: This is the third year I’ve asked this? Who is your next breakout prospect who will fly up the rankings. A couple years ago you mentioned Gregory Polanco, and several years back Oscar Taveras.

Klaw: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Eloy Jimenez, Junior Fernandez.

[CubsWin]

yeah i was just making a cereal joke dudes cmon get with it

Clearly a case of not enough "Rs". Gotta use at least 6...

[Little Slide Rooter]

Cubs Futures Team:

 

CF Albert Almora ®

2B Ian Happ (S)

RF Eloy Jimenez ®

1B Dan Vogelbach (L)

C Willson Contreras ®

SS Gleybar Torres ®

LF Billy McKinney (L)

3B Jeimer Candelerio (S)

 

Bench

EJ Matinez

Donnie DeWees

Mark Zagunis

Victor Caratini

 

Rotation: some mix of Underwood/Cease/Williams/Tseng/Blackburn

De La Cruz/Kellogg/Steele/Sands/Miller/Twomey/Sands/horsefeathers pitching

 

Bullpen: Edwards/Concepcion/Pena/Refer to above.

 

Obviously, it's not realistic to expect all of these guys to make it as big leaguers, let alone impact players, let alone Cubs, but I find it rather impressive that we can put together an entire "Futures Team" style roster from our own system out of actual prospects.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Kyle: This is the third year I’ve asked this? Who is your next breakout prospect who will fly up the rankings. A couple years ago you mentioned Gregory Polanco, and several years back Oscar Taveras.

Klaw: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Eloy Jimenez, Junior Fernandez.

 

I feel there's an opportunity for a very inappropriate joke here, but it's too early for me to piece it together.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Eloy Jimenez and Trevor Clifton were named the Cubs minor league player of the month and pitcher of the month for May.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/740261523558440961[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

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