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Posted

- Once Bonds and Clemens get in, that'll open the floodgates for Manny and A-Rod.

- Lofton and Walker get in through Vets Committee.

- Beltran gets voted in by the writers. Not first ballot, but at some point he will.

- Cano gets voted in by the writers

- Beltre, Trout, and Pujols are obvious first ballot guys.

- Rose not being in is a joke. Will it be different after he dies?

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Posted

Went on a deep dive this morning when looking back on Lou Brock’s stats. First thing that jumped out was how does a guy with 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 150 triples, and 950 steals only have a WAR of 45.4?

 

Well apparently he was likely the worst defensive outfielder ever who had a lengthy career.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vivaelbirdos.com/platform/amp/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2016/11/29/13770258/cardinals-hall-of-famer-lou-brock-war-defense

 

Brock’s errors in the outfield didn’t really fluctuate throughout his career, but his Total Zone numbers have a weird arc to them. For Brock’s first six full seasons in the corner outfield at age-24 through age-29, he was 33 runs above average for a corner outfielder, about five runs per season (1200 innings). For Brock’s last five seasons from age-36 through age-40, he was 21 runs below average on defense, around six runs below average per season (1200 innings).

 

Given that information, and the way aging curves work, we might expect those middle-six seasons for Brock to be around average on defense for a left fielder. That isn’t where total zone had him, though, putting him at 55 runs below average on defense, an average of nine runs per season. Adding in the positional adjustment, and for those six seasons, Brock was nearly 100 runs below average on defense during that time. To put that in perspective, no outfielder had that poor a UZR over the past six seasons, with only Matt Kemp coming close.

 

The defensive component of WAR from age-30 through age-35 has Brock has worse than Matt Kemp from 2011-2016, 20 runs worse than Nelson Cruz, more than 30 runs worse than Mark Trumbo, 40 runs worse than Jay Bruce, and 50 runs worse than Matt Holliday.

Posted

Yeah I've never really looked at deep into Brock's stats, I kind of assumed he was an all-around beast but his numbers are shockingly underwhelming. Obviously one of the greatest base threats of all time and certainly deserving of the HOF with those SB's and 3,000+ hits, but for some reason, I thought he had some power in his game or at least elite contact or defensive skills, and he had none of that.

 

Still a legend and from the stories I've been reading a genuinely good human being. Baseball lost a good one.

  • 5 months later...
Posted
Was looking through some MVP seasons this morning and came across Willie Stargell in 1979. He won the NL MVP with a 2.5 WAR. Yeesh.

 

Look at Stargell compared to Hernandez, Schmidt, and Winfield.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1979.shtml#all_NL_MVP_voting

 

Even just looking at traditional counting stats, how did he beat Winfield. LOL at winning MVP with 126 games played and 471 plate appearances.

Posted
Was looking through some MVP seasons this morning and came across Willie Stargell in 1979. He won the NL MVP with a 2.5 WAR. Yeesh.

 

Look at Stargell compared to Hernandez, Schmidt, and Winfield.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1979.shtml#all_NL_MVP_voting

 

Even just looking at traditional counting stats, how did he beat Winfield. LOL at winning MVP with 126 games played and 471 plate appearances.

He was the main dealer on the 79 We are Family at the Coke Fest Pirates.....MVP

  • 5 months later...
Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I'm way too lazy to fact check this, but it sounds right to me. I know he lit Maddux up in his career.

Vaunted.

Posted
On Monday, ESPN’s Ethan Strauss reminded us about a fantastic quote that Maddux once had about Gwynn that summed up his sensational career. The righthander was discussing how changing speeds and having control are far more important than velocity, because no hitter can tell the exact speed of a pitch. Well, except one…

 

“You just can’t do it,” Maddux said. “Sometimes hitters can pick up differences in spin. They can identify pitches if there are different release points or if a curveball starts with an upward hump as it leaves the pitcher’s hand. But if a pitcher can change speeds, every hitter is helpless, limited by human vision.

 

“Except for that (expletive) Tony Gwynn.”

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Posted
So, check out Ripken at the bottom of this AL MVP race…just chilling out with a 10 WAR in 27th place.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1984.shtml#all_AL_MVP_voting

 

 

Not nearly to the same extent,, but still baffling - the Cubs had 5 of the top 12 (including Jody Davis at 10th!) And 2 more tied for 17th. It almost looks like Vance stuffed the NL MVP ballot box that year.

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