09/26 Pittsburgh (Liriano) @ CUBS (Hammel) 12:05 CDT, Fox TV

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Fair point. I'll withdraw the Soler comparison until he stops BABIPing .370.

 

I mean, I think Soler will drop well below .370 in BABIP and always have. But, I also think it will come with significantly more power, as he gets the ball in the air more. I will say this: Both he and Javy need to hit with lots of power to be successful. The contact issues are definitely bad. So, I agree with you in the sense that, well, if Javy doesn't keep hitting it hard, then he's going to suck. But, I just feel more comfortable in declaring that it will happen. I absolutely think hitting the ball hard is predictive of future performance.

[davell]

This probably flails at analytics(and it's not meant to), but talented young guys make adjustments from gaining experience. I honestly think sometimes we look at guys too harshly at 22-23 years old. While Rizzo's walk rate was excellent when he auditioned in SD, the vast majority of his stats looked horrible. Yes, he's best case, as his stuff jumped incredibly. But Javy and Soler can and likely will continue to improve. At least gradually. The talent there may very well be enough to make it much more than that too. It's obviously easy to find warts on both, but I do think each still has quite a bit of their ceiling that they'll close in on. Whether that happens with us and whether we feel we can wait on it may wind up being a different story. But I think both wind up excellent major leaguers. Soler's D and health being the two largest concerns for me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This probably flails at analytics(and it's not meant to), but talented young guys make adjustments from gaining experience. I honestly think sometimes we look at guys too harshly at 22-23 years old. While Rizzo's walk rate was excellent when he auditioned in SD, the vast majority of his stats looked horrible. Yes, he's best case, as his stuff jumped incredibly. But Javy and Soler can and likely will continue to improve. At least gradually. The talent there may very well be enough to make it much more than that too. It's obviously easy to find warts on both, but I do think each still has quite a bit of their ceiling that they'll close in on. Whether that happens with us and whether we feel we can wait on it may wind up being a different story. But I think both wind up excellent major leaguers. Soler's D and health being the two largest concerns for me.

 

I think there's a bit of survivorship bias. You remember the Rizzos a lot more than you do the Brett Jacksons. Most 22-year-olds who suck continue to suck.

[davell]

This probably flails at analytics(and it's not meant to), but talented young guys make adjustments from gaining experience. I honestly think sometimes we look at guys too harshly at 22-23 years old. While Rizzo's walk rate was excellent when he auditioned in SD, the vast majority of his stats looked horrible. Yes, he's best case, as his stuff jumped incredibly. But Javy and Soler can and likely will continue to improve. At least gradually. The talent there may very well be enough to make it much more than that too. It's obviously easy to find warts on both, but I do think each still has quite a bit of their ceiling that they'll close in on. Whether that happens with us and whether we feel we can wait on it may wind up being a different story. But I think both wind up excellent major leaguers. Soler's D and health being the two largest concerns for me.

 

I think there's a bit of survivorship bias. You remember the Rizzos a lot more than you do the Brett Jacksons. Most 22-year-olds who suck continue to suck.

 

Can't deny that. But that's also a guy that talent-wise was a solid tier underneath guys like Javy and Soler. Granted, there are certainly guys with their talent that have washed out.

[Guest]

wtf did this thread turn into

[Brian]

wtf did this thread turn into

 

i tried to save it but failed

[Brian]

so i'm going to post this again because it needs to be scene as much as possible

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Soul]

If this is a preview of the WC game we're in trouble

 

hmm... no Jake Arrieta, no Gerrit Cole, not in PNC. Nope, I don't think it is. And why is this game so critical and not the previous 17 games against them, in which we are 10-7?

Because we faced a great pitcher and crumpled up like old newspaper, that's why. We'll face a great pitcher in the WC game so all I'm saying is they better figure out a way to do better in that situation than today.

[Guest]

If this is a preview of the WC game we're in trouble

 

hmm... no Jake Arrieta, no Gerrit Cole, not in PNC. Nope, I don't think it is. And why is this game so critical and not the previous 17 games against them, in which we are 10-7?

Because we faced a great pitcher and crumpled up like old newspaper, that's why.

 

jesus christ

[Guest]

i'll help you out. this is as much a preview of the wild card game as the other 150 some odd baseball games we have played is.

[Brian]

it also meant as much as if they had won 25-0

[Sammy Sofa]

If this is a preview of the WC game we're in trouble

 

hmm... no Jake Arrieta, no Gerrit Cole, not in PNC. Nope, I don't think it is. And why is this game so critical and not the previous 17 games against them, in which we are 10-7?

Because we faced a great pitcher and crumpled up like old newspaper, that's why. We'll face a great pitcher in the WC game so all I'm saying is they better figure out a way to do better in that situation than today.

 

And the Pirates will be facing an even better pitcher, who the Pirates have worse numbers against than the Cubs do against Cole.

 

STOP BEING SO AFRAID OF EVERYTHING.

[Brian]

or better yet the wild card game will be in St. Louis against a much less better starting pitcher

[RammyFanny]

He's needed a .395 BABIP to get that .307 wOBA.

 

(cue the arguments that he's a high-BABIP player or whatever is said every single time a player we like has a high BABIP).

Speaking of BABIP arguments, Kris Bryant has now BABIP'd about .380 over the course of a full major league season after BABIPing .400 throughout the minors. I have no idea what he will stabilize at over the course of his career, but he is crazy.

[Boris]

Kris Bryant is the white Michael. I love that kid.

[imb]

If this is a preview of the WC game we're in trouble

 

hmm... no Jake Arrieta, no Gerrit Cole, not in PNC. Nope, I don't think it is. And why is this game so critical and not the previous 17 games against them, in which we are 10-7?

Because we faced a great pitcher and crumpled up like old newspaper, that's why. We'll face a great pitcher in the WC game so all I'm saying is they better figure out a way to do better in that situation than today.

 

wouldnt we be first in like every other division still

[ARCubsFan]

If you're the Pirates, why wouldn't you start Liriano in the one game playoff? You get Coghlan, Schwarber, and Montero out of the lineup and you get David Ross. And the rest of the Cubs struggle against him too.

[UMFan83]

If you're the Pirates, why wouldn't you start Liriano in the one game playoff? You get Coghlan, Schwarber, and Montero out of the lineup and you get David Ross. And the rest of the Cubs struggle against him too.

 

i sort of understand this as the Cubs are less effective offensively against lefties (right?) and the Cubs more often than not struggle against Liriano and it allows them to set up their rotation for the NLDS if they win with Cole starting twice. But at the end of the day Cole is the better pitcher, the Pirates aren't going to take any risks in a 1 game playoff, and the Pirates have a deep enough rotation with Liriano and Burnett that they can likely survive with Cole only going once in a 5 game series.

[Sammy Sofa]

If you're the Pirates, why wouldn't you start Liriano in the one game playoff? You get Coghlan, Schwarber, and Montero out of the lineup and you get David Ross. And the rest of the Cubs struggle against him too.

 

i sort of understand this as the Cubs are less effective offensively against lefties (right?) and the Cubs more often than not struggle against Liriano and it allows them to set up their rotation for the NLDS if they win with Cole starting twice. But at the end of the day Cole is the better pitcher, the Pirates aren't going to take any risks in a 1 game playoff, and the Pirates have a deep enough rotation with Liriano and Burnett that they can likely survive with Cole only going once in a 5 game series.

 

Honestly, if they knew they weren't going up against a pitcher as singularly amazing as Arrieta, I could seem them seriously considering going with Liriano; the Cubs have been that brutally helpless against him.

[Guest]

If you're the Pirates, why wouldn't you start Liriano in the one game playoff? You get Coghlan, Schwarber, and Montero out of the lineup and you get David Ross. And the rest of the Cubs struggle against him too.

 

 

1) Soler and Jackson(if the Cubs don't just throw Schwarber out there anyway) are no slouch against LHP

 

2) Liriano is materially worse than Cole

 

3) Liriano is far less likely to be able to bridge the gap to the back of the Pirate bullpen by giving you a 5-6 inning outing