09/26 Pittsburgh (Liriano) @ CUBS (Hammel) 12:05 CDT, Fox TV

[Guest]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

[davell]

I really want Kevin Gausman. Obviously not as the only pitcher, but man I think he'd benefit from getting out of Baltimore.

 

While I know it shouldn't play into things, my honest guess is we'd be the last team they trade him to, after Jake....

 

Maybe, but I could see them having interest in Javy as someone who can play either SS or 3B depending on what they're going to do with Machado.

 

Here's my Javy HOT TAKE - he's sacrificed a most of his power to now have a K/BB ratio that is merely terrible instead of historically awful. Yes, I'm probably taking his short stint in the Majors this year too much into consideration, but his ISO took a pretty big hit in AAA this year compared to last season as well. I'm also assuming Theo would like to trade one of Javy/Starlin and that Javy has more trade value. I will be the leader of the TRADE JAVY bandwagon this offseason, and Gausman is a great target.

 

I can see that, but I don't think the power has been compromised myself. Way too small of a major league audition(it was fine in AAA).

 

I think Starlin is the one who gets moved. We won't get anything earth shattering back, but I think it'll be enough to allow us to move him.

 

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

Nah, what you say makes sense. He's helped build his value back up to where he'd net us something very good. I just mentioned in Transactions, trying to get Smyly from Tampa for Starlin. To me, it's not nearly as clear cut as thinking Starlin will be more valuable in 2016. In fact, I think Javy will out value him, partially due to D.

 

That said, I'm a Javy mark. Even if I'm trying to be even keeled, I'm unsure if I can be. He's just not a guy I want to trade and I fully acknowledge that it's wrong of me to think like that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

 

He's needed a .395 BABIP to get that .307 wOBA.

 

(cue the arguments that he's a high-BABIP player or whatever is said every single time a player we like has a high BABIP).

[Aaron_Kennelly]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

Yeah. It's a strange complaint. "I don't like this Javy, who might be giving up power to become a better player." Personally, I'll take this guy -- who is a useful player -- over the one we saw last year. And that's even if the whole reduced power thing maintains into next year.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Pitchers and their rhythms and stuff-I wouldn't. I mean [expletive], wasn't Hammel basically awesome until the first time Joe yanked him early?(Granted, he's not Jake)

 

I'll be meatballish on this though, let him pitch. Even if its a set pitch count, just don't skip him.

 

Hammel hasn't been right since he got hurt in that Cardinals game in July. I believe it was the Peralta game.

[UMFan83]

Pitchers and their rhythms and stuff-I wouldn't. I mean [expletive], wasn't Hammel basically awesome until the first time Joe yanked him early?(Granted, he's not Jake)

 

I'll be meatballish on this though, let him pitch. Even if its a set pitch count, just don't skip him.

 

Hammel hasn't been right since he got hurt in that Cardinals game in July. I believe it was the Peralta game.

 

Yeah he had maybe 1-2 bad starts before he got yanked I want to say. He was trending down at that point

[Guest]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

 

He's needed a .395 BABIP to get that .307 wOBA.

 

(cue the arguments that he's a high-BABIP player or whatever is said every single time a player we like has a high BABIP).

 

That more underscores how little we can read into the sample in general. The difference between him having a .395 BABIP and a .325 BABIP is 3 balls in play.

[davell]

BUT HE'S A HIGH BABIP GUY!!!!!j/k

 

The FO has to decide if the upgrade in talent we receive for Javy versus what we'd receive for Starlin is more than how they compare those 2 moving forward. It'll be a hotly contested offseason debate for all of us.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

 

He's needed a .395 BABIP to get that .307 wOBA.

 

(cue the arguments that he's a high-BABIP player or whatever is said every single time a player we like has a high BABIP).

 

Not that he'll keep up a .395 BABIP, but he also has a 27.9% line drive%. So that BABIP isn't really too crazy, considering his batted ball profile. He's also hitting an inordinately low number of balls with soft contact. It's very likely that his batted ball profile won't stay like that. But, I'm just offering the explanation. So... maybe he starts getting more balls in the air, his line drive rate drops, his BABIP drops, and his power numbers go up? Or maybe not? But, really, it's just too small of a sample to judge anything.

[davell]

Here's what I know I want-Javy and Soler start every regular season game till the playoffs. See if they are hot enough to factor in as more than PH in the playoffs.

[Gilby]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

Yeah. It's a strange complaint. "I don't like this Javy, who might be giving up power to become a better player." Personally, I'll take this guy -- who is a useful player -- over the one we saw last year. And that's even if the whole reduced power thing maintains into next year.

 

He absolutely needed to change from last year, I'm not questioning that at all. He's not playing pro baseball in the United States very much longer if he didn't/doesn't make adjustments after last season. My fear is that he's not capable of hitting for really good power while also keeping his K rate below historic levels. If we're talking about adding another pitcher through trade, and we have two other very capable second basemen on the roster, Baez is the one I trade, assuming he brings the most back.

 

I'm not complaining that he made adjustments, I just think there are too many flaws that even with those adjustments, he'll never be something we truly miss if traded away.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Not that he'll keep up a .395 BABIP, but he also has a 27.9% line drive%. So that BABIP isn't really too crazy, considering his batted ball profile. He's also hitting an inordinately low number of balls with soft contact. It's very likely that his batted ball profile won't stay like that. But, I'm just offering the explanation. So... maybe he starts getting more balls in the air, his line drive rate drops, his BABIP drops, and his power numbers go up? Or maybe not? But, really, it's just too small of a sample to judge anything.

 

LD% and BABIP are frequently measuring the same kind of variance. There's basically a huge amount of luck that goes into quality of contact.

 

I'm fine with too small to judge, but I don't think you can call what he's done encouraging, outside of the extremely low standards set up by his extremely awful 2014.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me.

 

btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel.

 

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either.

 

Yeah. It's a strange complaint. "I don't like this Javy, who might be giving up power to become a better player." Personally, I'll take this guy -- who is a useful player -- over the one we saw last year. And that's even if the whole reduced power thing maintains into next year.

 

He absolutely needed to change from last year, I'm not questioning that at all. He's not playing pro baseball in the United States very much longer if he didn't/doesn't make adjustments after last season. My fear is that he's not capable of hitting for really good power while also keeping his K rate below historic levels. If we're talking about adding another pitcher through trade, and we have two other very capable second basemen on the roster, Baez is the one I trade, assuming he brings the most back.

 

Eh, looking at how he's improved, I'm not really too worried about that. He's still hitting the ball really hard. And he still takes massive cuts. He's improved by showing a better eye and attacking balls in the zone. His improvements in contact ability are nice, but I don't really think he has accomplished that by giving up power.

[davell]

On a team like us, where money is a factor, shedding Starlin's deal could very well allow us to do something else impactful we may not be able to do otherwise. That can factor into this conceivably as well.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

LD% and BABIP are frequently measuring the same kind of variance. There's basically a huge amount of luck that goes into quality of contact.

 

Yes, I know. I'm simply saying his high BABIP right now is a function of that astronomical line drive%. He's probably going to hit more fly balls and fewer line drives, which will lead to more power. That means: lower BABIP, but more balls leaving the park. I'm just saying that it's hard to fault him for the high BABIP, when a high BABIP is likely with his current batted-ball profile.

 

I'm fine with too small to judge, but I don't think you can call what he's done encouraging, outside of the extremely low standards set up by his extremely awful 2014.

 

His O-Swing% is lower. His Z-Swing% is higher. His O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are both higher. He's making more hard contact. He's making less soft contact. I find all of these things encouraging.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

LD% and BABIP are frequently measuring the same kind of variance. There's basically a huge amount of luck that goes into quality of contact.

 

Yes, I know. I'm simply saying his high BABIP right now is a function of that astronomical line drive%. He's probably going to hit more fly balls and fewer line drives, which will lead to more power. That means: lower BABIP, but more balls leaving the park. I'm just saying that it's hard to fault him for the high BABIP, when a high BABIP is likely with his current batted-ball profile.

 

I find it very easy to fault him. The line drives are not staying. They are positive variance, or if you prefer, luck.

 

 

 

His O-Swing% is lower. His Z-Swing% is higher. His O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are both higher. He's making more hard contact. He's making less soft contact. I find all of these things encouraging.

 

Like I said: You had to reference against his completely awful 2014 in order to make it encouraging. His peripherals are bad and he's being propped up by luck. Sure, it's better than his historically awful 2014, but he's still playing like a bad player.

Edited September 26, 2015 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Brian]

ugh this thread is supposed to be a party

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[Brian]

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[Aaron_Kennelly]

If the line drives aren't staying, then what do you think happens to them? This is a guy that hits the ball really hard. I know you basically completely dismiss batted ball velocity, despite there being a huge correlation between hitting the ball hard and getting base hits and extra-base hits. But, I think his current numbers are fine for a guy that hits the ball really hard. Some peripherals are bad -- his contact percent, for one. But, there's a lot of peripherals that aren't so bad -- mainly the ones dealing with how hard he hits the ball. I don't think he's suddenly a complete package. But, I think he's at a place where he can be successful, despite being a swing-and-miss guy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the line drives aren't staying, then what do you think happens to them? This is a guy that hits the ball really hard. I know you basically completely dismiss batted ball velocity, despite there being a huge correlation between hitting the ball hard and getting base hits and extra-base hits. But, I think his current numbers are fine for a guy that hits the ball really hard. Some peripherals are bad -- his contact percent, for one. But, there's a lot of peripherals that aren't so bad -- mainly the ones dealing with how hard he hits the ball. I don't think he's suddenly a complete package. But, I think he's at a place where he can be successful, despite being a swing-and-miss guy.

 

Some of them are going to turn into fly balls, some of them are going to turn into ground balls.

 

The *only* peripheral that isn't bad is velocity, afaict.

 

I don't completely dismiss velocity. I just don't think the evidence is there yet to use it the way people want to use it. I need to see that it's highly predictive of itself in the future before I care about it as much as many.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

If the line drives aren't staying, then what do you think happens to them? This is a guy that hits the ball really hard. I know you basically completely dismiss batted ball velocity, despite there being a huge correlation between hitting the ball hard and getting base hits and extra-base hits. But, I think his current numbers are fine for a guy that hits the ball really hard. Some peripherals are bad -- his contact percent, for one. But, there's a lot of peripherals that aren't so bad -- mainly the ones dealing with how hard he hits the ball. I don't think he's suddenly a complete package. But, I think he's at a place where he can be successful, despite being a swing-and-miss guy.

 

Some of them are going to turn into fly balls, some of them are going to turn into ground balls.

 

The *only* peripheral that isn't bad is velocity, afaict.

 

I don't completely dismiss velocity. I just don't think the evidence is there yet to use it the way people want to use it. I need to see that it's highly predictive of itself in the future before I care about it as much as many.

 

That's a pretty important peripheral. The leaders in hard-hit% are nearly all good hitters, with lots of power. They also tend to carry with them extremely high BABIPs, unless they are extreme fly ball guys, extreme pull hitters, or extremely slow, lumbering old guys. Right now, Javy falls into none of those categories.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Which again leads us to the question: Is Javier Baez having a high bated-ball velocity in the short-term indicative of him having one in the long term?

 

The problem with treating it like other peripherals is that we *know* the other ones stabilize quickly. We don't know that about velocity, but some fans want to act like we do.

 

We had this *exact* argument about Jorge Soler in April, and he turned into a total pumpkin.

[squally1313]

Regarding arrieta...just skip him. He can throw whatever simulated game he wants, but between his innings count, not letting Pittsburgh see him, and wanting Pittsburgh to win a lot of games down the stretch, I just don't see the benefits in letting him pitch.

 

Don't throw him off his routine, or off the schedule for him to go on 10/7. If you're worried about the bullpen, let him start and pull him after 3 or something. But at this point, we're flying somewhere for that one game playoff no matter what happens. Let's do what it takes to give ourself the best chance of winning that game.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Which again leads us to the question: Is Javier Baez having a high bated-ball velocity in the short-term indicative of him having one in the long term?

 

The problem with treating it like other peripherals is that we *know* the other ones stabilize quickly. We don't know that about velocity, but some fans want to act like we do.

 

We had this *exact* argument about Jorge Soler in April, and he turned into a total pumpkin.

 

Except, he has continued to hit the ball really hard. And he still has that high BABIP. And he has started hitting homers, too. His pumpkiness is mainly due to him being a shitty defender.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fair point. I'll withdraw the Soler comparison until he stops BABIPing .370.