Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

[sontensei]

Out of the super prospects who do you think is the most likely to bust?

When I say bust, it is in regards to becoming a top mlb'er.. these guys are already good enough to be everyday players for some team.

 

Russell

Bryant

Soler

Schwarber

Baez

 

My opinion is that Soler is the biggest risk to bust due to his legs. 2nd would be Baez..

[jersey cubs fan]

it is without a doubt baez

[OleMissCub]

Baez definitely.

 

I think Schwarber will compete for a batting title one day.

 

I also think Billy Beane had it right when he told Theo after the Russell trade: "Congratulations, you just got Barry Larkin."

[sneakypower]

if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

 

Baez: 25%

Soler: 33%

Schwarber: 66%

Russell: 85%

Bryant: 90%

[apete6]

Will Baez or Soler put up more career WAR as a Cub than Castro?

 

I'd say yes to both.

[UMFan83]

Yeah its a battle between Soler and Baez...have to go with Baez as others have. I am just very perplexed as to why Soler has hit with so little power this year. I know he's had bad luck with line drives this year but 5 HRs in 283 ABs is extremely perplexing. He's 23 so its not like he's a 20 year old with still developing power. We've seen the power. He should be hitting one to the moon at least once a week. Perhaps its just a really unlucky year, and perhaps the little amount of time he spent in the minors means that he still has room to grow, but its slightly concerning at this point.

[sontensei]

Yeah its a battle between Soler and Baez...have to go with Baez as others have. I am just very perplexed as to why Soler has hit with so little power this year. I know he's had bad luck with line drives this year but 5 HRs in 283 ABs is extremely perplexing. He's 23 so its not like he's a 20 year old with still developing power. We've seen the power. He should be hitting one to the moon at least once a week. Perhaps its just a really unlucky year, and perhaps the little amount of time he spent in the minors means that he still has room to grow, but its slightly concerning at this point.

 

not even his power is concerning me as much as his legs, i saw 2 games this weekend up in milwaukee and when he runs it just looks strange..

[rawaction]

All of these guys have seen the majors. Only 1 is not in the majors now. And the primary reason he's not is because he was so horribly bad when he was in the majors last. So, yeah, I'm going to go with that guy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Baez is the easy pick, but Soler this year has been hugely perplexing and a bit worrisome.

[Guest]

if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

 

Baez: 25%

Soler: 33%

Schwarber: 66%

Russell: 85%

Bryant: 90%

 

makes me happy to see you that high on bryant (and baez, really)

 

kinda depressing where we're at with georgie, though.

[Sammy Sofa]

3 out of the 5 making seems about right.

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

When talking about busts from this group, the strikeout rates all around are concerning. It's just so hard to be a good player while striking out 30% of the time. I would put the bust potential like this:

 

1) Javy - Everyone is hopeful he's making some adjustments (myself included) but you can't discount last season in the majors either.

2) Soler - the strikeouts are up, the power is gone, his .375 BABIP suggests regression. If he can adjust his plate discipline, he'll be a good player. But that last sentence has been a eulogy to many, many players.

3) Schwarber - His strikeout rate is very reasonable for his power. His numbers are going to come down a bit as BABIP normalizes but they still should be very good. The question really comes down to where he can play defense.

4) Bryant - The K-rate is concerning, but he does enough well that I think his odds of busting are quite low. His K's and a potential move to LF may relatively limit his ceiling, however.

5) Russell - He's shown great adjustment so far in reducing his K's and increasing his walks every month. Plus, his defense is already excellent.

[sneakypower]

if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

 

Baez: 25%

Soler: 33%

Schwarber: 66%

Russell: 85%

Bryant: 90%

 

makes me happy to see you that high on bryant (and baez, really)

 

kinda depressing where we're at with georgie, though.

we actually have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Soler, Russell, Bryant:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015TradeValue.png

 

i can see Soler being Castro-esque where he's seen to have never fulfilled his potential and being viewed as a disappointment but sustaining cheap, average production for a little while

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.

 

July wRC+ of 69 did the trick :(

[sneakypower]

Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.

UZR update, most likely

[Guest]

Will Baez or Soler put up more career WAR as a Cub than Castro?

 

I'd say yes to both.

 

Baez no, Soler yes.

[ARCubsFan]

It's either Baez or Soler. I'd go Baez just because of the swing and miss in his game. Soler's defense is brutal but he seems like he's gonna be a guy that is gonna figure it out on offense and dominate.