Offseason Rumors & Transactions Thread

[Cubswin11]

I like Zobrist, but not at the cost of what the As are giving up. Escobar can pick it, but he doesn't do much with the bat.

 

Billy has gone a little mad.

 

It's bold. Mad would be fair as well. If some things go right and they are a bit lucky, it's possible they are in the playoff hunt. It's really not a bad roster, and in the era of the 2nd Wild Card, it's really not as incredulous as it sounds, despite the moves they've made this offseason. I wouldn't bet on it, but if they get some hitting .... If not, he could probably spin Zobrist off to a desperate deadline team. Still, giving up Robertson after giving up Russell is ... bold/mad.

Yeah I think with this move he's gotten the offense to about where it was last year. If their pitching holds up and they get a little luck/health/bounce back on offense (Butler/Lawrie/Davis) they should be right in the thick of it.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder what it would take to get Longoria, I would think he'd be moved within the next year or so. Baez, Almora, Hendricks, Vogelbach (if they value him as a DH) and CJ/PJ?

 

You could start this year with

 

C: Montero

1B: Rizzo

2B: Valbuena

SS: Castro

3B: Longoria

LF: Denorfia/Coghlan

CF: Alcantara

RF: Soler

 

by June you'd have Bryant in LF

 

Then going into 2016 you'd have

 

C: Montero

1B: Rizzo

2B/SS: Castro/Russell

3B: Longoria

LF: Bryant

CF: Alcantara (or a FA Heyward?)

RF: Soler

 

 

I'm not sure I want Longoria (unless the price was fairly low). He's almost 30, with a crapload of years left (what is it ... 7 more?) Sure the price is reasonable (really don't know the AAV off the top, but it wasn't huge ... albeit, if it's a typical contract, it's climbing), but there seems to be some signs of decline. At best, you have to figure 2-3 more years of prime performance, if he hasn't peaked already. Just not sure it's worth the risk. I'm definitely not against trading guys ... just think there would be a better option. Maybe I'm in the minority on Longoria, though.

[davell]

I like Zobrist, but not at the cost of what the As are giving up. Escobar can pick it, but he doesn't do much with the bat.

 

Billy has gone a little mad.

 

It's bold. Mad would be fair as well. If some things go right and they are a bit lucky, it's possible they are in the playoff hunt. It's really not a bad roster, and in the era of the 2nd Wild Card, it's really not as incredulous as it sounds, despite the moves they've made this offseason. I wouldn't bet on it, but if they get some hitting .... If not, he could probably spin Zobrist off to a desperate deadline team. Still, giving up Robertson after giving up Russell is ... bold/mad.

 

Keep in mind, Oakland did get Franklin Barreto in the Donaldson deal. Long way off obviously, but they've still got their "SS of the future".

[Cubswin11]

I wonder what it would take to get Longoria, I would think he'd be moved within the next year or so. Baez, Almora, Hendricks, Vogelbach (if they value him as a DH) and CJ/PJ?

 

You could start this year with

 

C: Montero

1B: Rizzo

2B: Valbuena

SS: Castro

3B: Longoria

LF: Denorfia/Coghlan

CF: Alcantara

RF: Soler

 

by June you'd have Bryant in LF

 

Then going into 2016 you'd have

 

C: Montero

1B: Rizzo

2B/SS: Castro/Russell

3B: Longoria

LF: Bryant

CF: Alcantara (or a FA Heyward?)

RF: Soler

 

 

I'm not sure I want Longoria (unless the price was fairly low). He's almost 30, with a crapload of years left (what is it ... 7 more?) Sure the price is reasonable (really don't know the AAV off the top, but it wasn't huge ... albeit, if it's a typical contract, it's climbing), but there seems to be some signs of decline. At best, you have to figure 2-3 more years of prime performance, if he hasn't peaked already. Just not sure it's worth the risk. I'm definitely not against trading guys ... just think there would be a better option. Maybe I'm in the minority on Longoria, though.

He's signed for 8 more years, but it's incredibly reasonable. The AAV over that period is like $14-15 million.

[Guest]

From a value standpoint, I'd say McKinney and Castillo has to be pretty equal to Robertson and Jaso, right? I can see why Tampa would prefer a SS though as the lead piece.

 

Keith Law is confused that Tampa would do this with a Top 100 prospect at SS already.

 

While I like Robertson a fair amount, he actually reminds me a bit of Zobrist coming up, and truth be told, I think he moves off short. That said, unless I'm forgetting someone, they've got some time, as Adames should start at A+, with Robertson at AA. I could see Robertson shifting to 2nd and being ... Zobrist-ish, although they have Ryan Brett in place for the near future. They've done a good job of restocking a farm system that had gotten thin.

 

Think TT was making fun of Law's high regard for Hak Ju Lee.

[davell]

Dave Stewart added that he feels teams are trying to exploit a weakness on the Diamondbacks roster and asking for the team’s top prospects in return.

 

Arizona has two catchers on their roster, Tuffy Gosewisch and Oscar Hernandez, the recent Rule 5 Draft pick up.

 

That's from an Arizona article the CCO picked up.

[Clem Fandango]

Boy that offense would look really good right now if they didn't trade everyone away.

[Thrilho]

Zobrist would have been nice, but I think Valbuena can play his role very well next year. I'd be all for adding Zobrist and keeping Valbuena for an overload of OBP and versatility, but I think there's a good shot they'd have dealt Valbuena if they got Zobrist.

 

Maybe they would have kept both, but for this post let's say that Zobrist either gets Valbuena traded or eats up his ABs. Here is a comparison of their offensive output:

 

Valbuena (2014)

wOBA: .342

OBP: .341

ISO: .186

BABIP: 294 (+.25 from career average)

FG Base running value: 0.0

 

Zobrist (2014)

wOBA: .333

OBP: .354

ISO: .123

BAIP: .301 (+.08 from career average)

FG Base running value: 2.6

 

Zobrist (2011-2014)

wOBA: .348

OBP: .360

ISO: .163

BABIP: .302

FG Base running value (3.7, -3.2, 3.9, 2.6)

 

 

Zobrist pros offensively:

- His consistency gives you confidence that he can produce roughly his 2014 output

- Better on the bases

- Switch hitter

- Veteran leader with 4 playoff appearances

 

Zobrist cons offensively:

- His LD% has declined the last two years and was 18.4% in 2014. GB rate shot up to 48.8% in 2014.

- Declining base running value

- ISO of .123 and .127 the last two years are not great

- Career .282 wOBA in playoffs. 3 of 4 appearances he was pretty bad

 

 

Luis Valbuena pros offensively:

- Power

 

Luis Valbuena cons offensively:

- Can he do it again?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/luis-valbuena-bueno-or-no/

 

This article has a great analysis of how he refined his swing and his approach in 2014. The biggest thing is that it's more level, less uppercut. Those changes resulted not only in LD% increasing from 15.6% to 20.4% but also his FB% from 44.8% to 48.1%. That's a fine thing if you've got some power. His GB% was cut down to 31.5% in 2014. Obviously, the question is if these gains are sustainable.

 

The article also shows that he has really honed in on belt high pitches in the zone, and that is where he is doing all his damage. I tend to trust improvements in approach by guys who already have a good approach.

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Valbuena-Swings-All.jpg

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Valbuena-ISO-All.jpg

 

 

So personally, I think Valbuena's gains are real, and I'd guess he finishes with a .330+ wOBA again this year.

 

So can he be our Zobrist? The team has never been so solid on the infield that they've asked him to play outfield, but I'd guess he could play a fine corner outfield. At least LF, but he's got a pretty good arm at 3B, and I'd guess that it would translate at least reasonably well to RF.

 

Also, note that Valbuena was pretty good at second last year. He had a 6.4 USR/150 vs Zobrist's 10.3. But for some reason, Valbuena wasn't that good at 3B last year. He had a -4.9 UZR/150 in 2014, vs 27.5 and 18.6 in 2012 and 2013. But going forward, I'd guess he's closer that that elite 3B than the shitty one. Zobrist has never played 3B, so who knows what happens if you count on him for that.

 

So long story short, I expect the Cubs to try and make Valbuena our Zobrist. He'll hopefully back up Soler once Bryant comes up, and will provide a safety net for both Coghlan and Javy. I'm cool with not getting Zobrist if this is the plan. One good thing about it is that it leaves LF open for an impact guy (Gordon?) at midseason. I just hope they can pull off a deal for Leonys Martin now.

[Thrilho]

TL;DR: Don't despair, we've still got Valbuena!

[Guest]

Zobrist's ability to play SS would've been nice if you're considering leaving Baez off the MLB roster. If he's going to get big MLB at bats to start the year, then the flexibility of Zobrist isn't nearly as valuable to the Cubs as his bat.

 

I still don't believe in Coghlan for next year, so getting another LH OF to replace him as the primary part of a LF platoon is the biggest thing I think they lack. With Denorfia the necessity of that OF being able to CF is more luxury than necessity, which is nice. There's lots of trade targets in that regard, but for a FA option, Aoki remains unsigned.

[Thrilho]

Zobrist's ability to play SS would've been nice if you're considering leaving Baez off the MLB roster. If he's going to get big MLB at bats to start the year, then the flexibility of Zobrist isn't nearly as valuable to the Cubs as his bat.

 

I still don't believe in Coghlan for next year, so getting another LH OF to replace him as the primary part of a LF platoon is the biggest thing I think they lack. With Denorfia the necessity of that OF being able to CF is more luxury than necessity, which is nice. There's lots of trade targets in that regard, but for a FA option, Aoki remains unsigned.

 

Do you not agree that they'll try to use Valbuena as the safety net to Coghlan? It seems like it would be a luxury to get another left handed LF when there's one on the roster who had a .353 wOBA and potentially another guy in Valbuena who could play it.

[Guest]

I don't think they're worried about Coghlan because he's only going to be playing it for a few weeks.

[Thrilho]

I don't think they're worried about Coghlan because he's only going to be playing it for a few weeks.

 

The question of whether they try Bryant at third will dictate a lot of things. But so will whether Baez struggles. If he sucks in ST and they decide to send him down, then Valbuena is probably at second and Bryant is at third. If they do want Bryant at third and Javy does earn a job then the only way Coghlan doesn't play is if they get another LH LF or play Valbuena out there.

[Guest]

Zobrist's ability to play SS would've been nice if you're considering leaving Baez off the MLB roster. If he's going to get big MLB at bats to start the year, then the flexibility of Zobrist isn't nearly as valuable to the Cubs as his bat.

 

I still don't believe in Coghlan for next year, so getting another LH OF to replace him as the primary part of a LF platoon is the biggest thing I think they lack. With Denorfia the necessity of that OF being able to CF is more luxury than necessity, which is nice. There's lots of trade targets in that regard, but for a FA option, Aoki remains unsigned.

 

Do you not agree that they'll try to use Valbuena as the safety net to Coghlan? It seems like it would be a luxury to get another left handed LF when there's one on the roster who had a .353 wOBA and potentially another guy in Valbuena who could play it.

 

It depends on what they think of Bryant. If Bryant is getting an extended look at 3B, then Valbuena is merely Baez insurance. If Bryant is going to be in LF by the all-star break, then Coghlan(or Sweeney if you prefer, IMO they're pretty much the same for 2015) isn't as important to the roster. The latter puts greater pressure on one of Baez/La Stella/Russell being a productive major leaguer though, and quickly. I don't think they consider Valbuena an OF in any way, if that's at all what you're getting at.

[Thrilho]

I don't think they consider Valbuena an OF in any way, if that's at all what you're getting at.

 

Yeah, that was pretty much my question. I understand thinking that the guy who has never played an ML inning in the OF is probably not going to play the OF this year. But that's what I'm hoping happens.

[Guest]

I don't think they're worried about Coghlan because he's only going to be playing it for a few weeks.

 

The question of whether they try Bryant at third will dictate a lot of things. But so will whether Baez struggles. If he sucks in ST and they decide to send him down, then Valbuena is probably at second and Bryant is at third. If they do want Bryant at third and Javy does earn a job then the only way Coghlan doesn't play is if they get another LH LF or play Valbuena out there.

 

I don't think Bryant is going to play much, if any, 3B when he is called up. I think they'll get him work in the OF at ST and AAA as they kill time with him and he'll be our starting LF the rest of the way with Valbuena at 3B until they decide Russell is ready. Exception in my mind would be the scenario you laid out where Baez is so bad that they go another direction there, which is certainly possible, but I think they're going to give him a lot of time to sink/swim.

[mul21]

Zobrist's ability to play SS would've been nice if you're considering leaving Baez off the MLB roster. If he's going to get big MLB at bats to start the year, then the flexibility of Zobrist isn't nearly as valuable to the Cubs as his bat.

 

I still don't believe in Coghlan for next year, so getting another LH OF to replace him as the primary part of a LF platoon is the biggest thing I think they lack. With Denorfia the necessity of that OF being able to CF is more luxury than necessity, which is nice. There's lots of trade targets in that regard, but for a FA option, Aoki remains unsigned.

 

Why the doubt that Coughlan can be close to what he was last year? He's done it before and was finally fully healthy and getting regular ABs.

[Thrilho]

I don't think they're worried about Coghlan because he's only going to be playing it for a few weeks.

 

The question of whether they try Bryant at third will dictate a lot of things. But so will whether Baez struggles. If he sucks in ST and they decide to send him down, then Valbuena is probably at second and Bryant is at third. If they do want Bryant at third and Javy does earn a job then the only way Coghlan doesn't play is if they get another LH LF or play Valbuena out there.

 

I don't think Bryant is going to play much, if any, 3B when he is called up. I think they'll get him work in the OF at ST and AAA as they kill time with him and he'll be our starting LF the rest of the way with Valbuena at 3B until they decide Russell is ready. Exception in my mind would be the scenario you laid out where Baez is so bad that they go another direction there, which is certainly possible, but I think they're going to give him a lot of time to sink/swim.

 

Yeah, I think that's the most likely scenario actually. I know my whole premise was that they'd put Bryant at third, but I meant to frame it as "if they plan to play Bryant at third this is how I'd hope Valbuena would fit."

 

In reality, if they believe in both Russell and Baez or even if they're just all in on giving both Baez and Russell a shot in 2015 and 2016 then they'll likely stick Bryant in left right out of the gate. Then you've got Coghlan being pushed out of the lineup and Valbuena playing third, which would be my preferred scenario. Ultimate scenario is Baez earning a spot, Russell coming up midseason and Valbuena is pushed into a utility role where he plays some OF.

[Guest]

Zobrist's ability to play SS would've been nice if you're considering leaving Baez off the MLB roster. If he's going to get big MLB at bats to start the year, then the flexibility of Zobrist isn't nearly as valuable to the Cubs as his bat.

 

I still don't believe in Coghlan for next year, so getting another LH OF to replace him as the primary part of a LF platoon is the biggest thing I think they lack. With Denorfia the necessity of that OF being able to CF is more luxury than necessity, which is nice. There's lots of trade targets in that regard, but for a FA option, Aoki remains unsigned.

 

Why the doubt that Coughlan can be close to what he was last year? He's done it before and was finally fully healthy and getting regular ABs.

 

I know there's reasons for believing in him(it wasn't a peripheral fluke, he'd done it his rookie year, etc), but the 1000 PAs in the 4 years in between his rookie year and 2014 make me hesitant to believe too much in his resurgence. Sweeney's 2013 to 2014 are a bit instructive in this regard. Plus he's a negative with everything outside the bat, so there's not much to fall back on either. I admit my level of discomfort with Coghlan probably goes beyond what's truly rational though.

[toonsterwu]

I like Zobrist, but not at the cost of what the As are giving up. Escobar can pick it, but he doesn't do much with the bat.

 

Billy has gone a little mad.

 

It's bold. Mad would be fair as well. If some things go right and they are a bit lucky, it's possible they are in the playoff hunt. It's really not a bad roster, and in the era of the 2nd Wild Card, it's really not as incredulous as it sounds, despite the moves they've made this offseason. I wouldn't bet on it, but if they get some hitting .... If not, he could probably spin Zobrist off to a desperate deadline team. Still, giving up Robertson after giving up Russell is ... bold/mad.

 

Keep in mind, Oakland did get Franklin Barreto in the Donaldson deal. Long way off obviously, but they've still got their "SS of the future".

 

Sure, and they like the other guy, name is slipping me ... uh ... Wendell? Weddle? Something like that (the 2nd baseman from Cleveland in the Moss deal). So, from a middle infield perspective, they have assets.

 

I like Barreto a lot ... I was one of the minority that thought it was a fairly solid deal for them from a rebuilding perspective. But Barreto is a few years further behind Robertson, so I just think it's interesting they gave up two middle infield guys, both relatively well-regarded, within a half year, both guys who, if they progress, could see the bigs in a couple years.

[toonsterwu]

From a value standpoint, I'd say McKinney and Castillo has to be pretty equal to Robertson and Jaso, right? I can see why Tampa would prefer a SS though as the lead piece.

 

Keith Law is confused that Tampa would do this with a Top 100 prospect at SS already.

 

While I like Robertson a fair amount, he actually reminds me a bit of Zobrist coming up, and truth be told, I think he moves off short. That said, unless I'm forgetting someone, they've got some time, as Adames should start at A+, with Robertson at AA. I could see Robertson shifting to 2nd and being ... Zobrist-ish, although they have Ryan Brett in place for the near future. They've done a good job of restocking a farm system that had gotten thin.

 

Think TT was making fun of Law's high regard for Hak Ju Lee.

 

ah, okay. I thought that was a reference to Willy Adames.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

So the Nats are still looking for 2B... Could we flip La Stella for Span? its possible we would need another piece but Span makes too much sense for the Cubs and I am still struggling to figure out how La Stella fits in if Bryant stays at 3rd base and Valbuena is still on the roster.

[Tryptamine]

So the Nats are still looking for 2B... Could we flip La Stella for Span? its possible we would need another piece but Span makes too much sense for the Cubs and I am still struggling to figure out how La Stella fits in if Bryant stays at 3rd base and Valbuena is still on the roster.

 

Lastella is pretty much a throw in on a deal. Also, who is going to play CF for the Nats? They're trying to win this year so making a hole in CF to fill one at 2B doesn't make much sense.

[Guest]

La Stella still has a purpose as a bench player even if there's not a clear path to him playing every day, depth is good. Last year Watkins and Valaika had 200 PA between them, plus Bonifacio played a few dozen games in the infield. He won't go to waste.

 

As far as dealing with the Nats goes, especially after trading Souza, I imagine it would take at least Valbuena to get them to downgrade CF to Goodwin/Taylor from Span.

[toonsterwu]

So the Nats are still looking for 2B... Could we flip La Stella for Span? its possible we would need another piece but Span makes too much sense for the Cubs and I am still struggling to figure out how La Stella fits in if Bryant stays at 3rd base and Valbuena is still on the roster.

 

My hunch is that the Nats are still waiting to see what happens with the Scherzer/Shields market. Betting money is still against them getting involved, but if the price gets close enough, I would never count out Mike Rizzo. He's already had a solid offseason, and if they sign one of those, they could certainly afford to deal a starter away to fill needs, short and long term. Worst case scenario, they go into the year with Danny Espinosa as a stopgap 2nd baseman. They have Turner and Wilmer Difo, so they could go for a cheap veteran stopgap. That said, keep in mind, they could look to add a 3rd baseman and keep Rendon at 2nd (while it isn't the preferred option, supposedly, according to DC radio awhile ago, it was discussed).

 

Realistically, I doubt they would consider LaStella. I think it would take a prime deal for them to move Span. Keep in mind Werth is out for the start of the year, so they are already down one regular, and Span's defense in CF is significant for them. Furthermore, Bryce Harper has gone through his fair share of injuries in his short career so far.