Offseason Rumors & Transactions Thread

[Cubswin11]

MLBTR speculates Alex Avila could be non-tendered, any interest there if that happens? He'll be 28 on opening day, is he considered a good defender/framer? A Castillo/Avila platoon on the surface could be decently productive, at least offensively. Avila has a career line of .256/.358/.434 vs RHP, Castillo is at .306/.373/.472 vs LHP.

[chopsx9]

statcorner:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+11	+17	+24	52
Castillo	 -24	-17	-5	-46

Baseball Prospectus:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+19	+15	+23	57	
Castillo	 -10	-16	-3	-29

source:

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

 

so, i'm really curious to hear which it is...because it's not unfathomable (to me) to believe that an event on which they have influence about 7,000-10,000 times could really add up to a significant effect, especially when scouting sources universally agree they're at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of ability

 

it's simply impossible for me to hand-wave a factor that could alone likely amount to a 2-3 win difference

 

Of course extrapolating the trend Castillo should be solidly positive next year :-)

 

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-19430-Wonka-gif--Wait-a-minute-strik-Fe67.gif

 

D'oh. #-o Of course we read left to right here in the civilized North!

[Guest]

The value of a win is going to be like 7 million this offseason. Even if you regress Martin to a 3 win player(he's been worth 9+ the last 2 years before you get into framing), he's still worth it at 5/75, especially when you consider that he very easily could put up another 4 win season, framing gives him another bump, etc. The dollars/production thing is pretty much a non-issue, and that's thanks to his age suppressing his contract in actuality.

 

My problem with Martin is that I'm not convinced he's going to actually be all that good. I don't have much besides intuition and a deep prejudice against older players to base that off so I'm not going to tell anyone who loves Martin that he's a terrible sign, but given that we already have a league averageish guy there now, I'd rather make a splash at a different spot if we're spending significant dollars on the offense. Put another way, I'm sure Martin wouldn't be an anchor on the team, but I'm skeptical that he's actually a big improvement over Castillo (or Castillo with a better backup) moving forward.

to actually say this, you have to be:

a) a complete skeptic of the effect pitch framing can have

b) totally unaware at the discrepancy which exists between the two players

statcorner:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+11	+17	+24	52
Castillo	 -24	-17	-5	-46

Baseball Prospectus:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+19	+15	+23	57	
Castillo	 -10	-16	-3	-29

source:

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

 

so, i'm really curious to hear which it is...because it's not unfathomable (to me) to believe that an event on which they have influence about 7,000-10,000 times could really add up to a significant effect, especially when scouting sources universally agree they're at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of ability

 

it's simply impossible for me to hand-wave a factor that could alone likely amount to a 2-3 win difference

 

I'm skeptical of the magnitude of the effect that framing has.

 

I'm skeptical of how much control catchers have over that effect, and by extension, how much benefit getting a player from another team with quality framing numbers would offer.

 

I'm skeptical that it's not a skill like bat speed, where small losses due to age have large negative effects.

 

And I'm skeptical that given their ages, that Castillo and Martin's offensive production won't converge.

 

That said, I'd still bet that Martin is better than Castillo for the next year or two, but I'm not sure how much.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm skeptical of the magnitude of the effect that framing has.

 

I'm skeptical of how much control catchers have over that effect, and by extension, how much benefit getting a player from another team with quality framing numbers would offer.

 

I'm skeptical that it's not a skill like bat speed, where small losses due to age have large negative effects.

 

And I'm skeptical that given their ages, that Castillo and Martin's offensive production won't converge.

 

That said, I'd still bet that Martin is better than Castillo for the next year or two, but I'm not sure how much.

 

Well said.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm skeptical of the magnitude of the effect that framing has.

 

I'm skeptical of how much control catchers have over that effect, and by extension, how much benefit getting a player from another team with quality framing numbers would offer.

 

I'm skeptical that it's not a skill like bat speed, where small losses due to age have large negative effects.

 

And I'm skeptical that given their ages, that Castillo and Martin's offensive production won't converge.

 

That said, I'd still bet that Martin is better than Castillo for the next year or two, but I'm not sure how much.

Yup

[Sammy Sofa]

History is filled with people who were skeptical of innovative thinking.

 

Baseball history especially.

[Guest]

History is filled with people who were skeptical of innovative thinking.

 

Baseball history especially.

 

I'm not questioning whether there's value added by framing at all, I'm questioning that it makes Russell Martin 50% more valuable as a player. Or to put a number to it, that Martin's framing alone is worth 10 million dollars a year.

[Guest]

Plus we're working from a baseline of "Martin is better than Castillo when you completely remove this thing he's very good at and Castillo is terrible horrible no good very bad at."

[rawaction]

The value of a win is going to be like 7 million this offseason. Even if you regress Martin to a 3 win player(he's been worth 9+ the last 2 years before you get into framing), he's still worth it at 5/75, especially when you consider that he very easily could put up another 4 win season, framing gives him another bump, etc. The dollars/production thing is pretty much a non-issue, and that's thanks to his age suppressing his contract in actuality.

 

My problem with Martin is that I'm not convinced he's going to actually be all that good. I don't have much besides intuition and a deep prejudice against older players to base that off so I'm not going to tell anyone who loves Martin that he's a terrible sign, but given that we already have a league averageish guy there now, I'd rather make a splash at a different spot if we're spending significant dollars on the offense. Put another way, I'm sure Martin wouldn't be an anchor on the team, but I'm skeptical that he's actually a big improvement over Castillo (or Castillo with a better backup) moving forward.

to actually say this, you have to be:

a) a complete skeptic of the effect pitch framing can have

b) totally unaware at the discrepancy which exists between the two players

statcorner:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+11	+17	+24	52
Castillo	 -24	-17	-5	-46

Baseball Prospectus:
          2014  2013  2012  total
Martin		+19	+15	+23	57	
Castillo	 -10	-16	-3	-29

source:

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

 

so, i'm really curious to hear which it is...because it's not unfathomable (to me) to believe that an event on which they have influence about 7,000-10,000 times could really add up to a significant effect, especially when scouting sources universally agree they're at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of ability

 

it's simply impossible for me to hand-wave a factor that could alone likely amount to a 2-3 win difference

 

I'm skeptical of the magnitude of the effect that framing has.

 

I'm skeptical of how much control catchers have over that effect, and by extension, how much benefit getting a player from another team with quality framing numbers would offer.

 

I'm skeptical that it's not a skill like bat speed, where small losses due to age have large negative effects.

 

And I'm skeptical that given their ages, that Castillo and Martin's offensive production won't converge.

 

That said, I'd still bet that Martin is better than Castillo for the next year or two, but I'm not sure how much.

 

I'm not SURE how much either, but I think it will be quite a bit. Welington's not very good.

[Sammy Sofa]

I say we take a chance. Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

[Guest]

Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

 

Yes.

[Sammy Sofa]

Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

 

Yes.

 

I want the FO to have this moment before every transaction going forward:

 

[Guest]

We need another good mob movie.

[jersey cubs fan]

I say we take a chance. Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

 

If they are getting a bunch of really good guys and spending money, sure, let Russell have a cut. But if he's the headliner this is a huge dud.

[Sammy Sofa]

I say we take a chance. Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

 

If they are getting a bunch of really good guys and spending money, sure, let Russell have a cut. But if he's the headliner this is a huge dud.

 

If he's the headliner everyone is getting an ice pick to the back of the neck.

[Guest]

I say we take a chance. Let's be awesome Jimmy Conway giving out huge tips and kicking asses instead of stupid Morrie always crying about his money.

 

If they are getting a bunch of really good guys and spending money, sure, let Russell have a cut. But if he's the headliner this is a huge dud.

 

If he's the headliner everyone is getting an ice pick to the back of the neck.

 

Yeah, and if he's the headliner, there's a lot of money unspent and he amounts to a huge waste of money.

[Guest]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 10m10 minutes ago

Cherington deflected a question about whether Lester was a priority. Sure didn't sound like it. #redsox

 

FWIW

 

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 3m3 minutes ago Phoenix, AZ

Both Cubs GM Jed Hoyer And Red Sox GM Ben Cherington feel pitching free agent will be slow on developing. Hoyer thinks at least a month.

Edited November 11, 2014 by David

[CubsInNC]

MLBTR speculates Alex Avila could be non-tendered, any interest there if that happens? He'll be 28 on opening day, is he considered a good defender/framer? A Castillo/Avila platoon on the surface could be decently productive, at least offensively. Avila has a career line of .256/.358/.434 vs RHP, Castillo is at .306/.373/.472 vs LHP.

 

I'd rather have no part of the corpse formerly known as Alex Avila.

[Guest]

Avila is basically the LH Castillo(although better regarded as a framer), so I would jump to add him if he did get non-tendered.

 

Alternatively, the Tigers are a natural trade partner for Castillo if they do this and the Cubs sign Martin.

[Guest]

The Mets are unenthusiastic about the available free agent shortstops, and plan to go the trade route to fill the position. The Diamondbacks, Mariners, White Sox, and Cubs are viewed as viable trade partners. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News says “it has been difficult, if not impossible” for the Mets and Cubs to agree on the value of Starlin Castro. Meanwhile, Martino says Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox only emerged as a possibility within the past week. Martino’s early read has the White Sox seeking the Mets’ top young starters and the Mets pitching their veterans.

 

Basically what we knew all along.

[RynoRules]

I'd bet the Cubs are sort of reverse engineering here, i.e., "If Russell and company were worth both Shark and Hammel, then Castro (a proven, 3-win ML shortstop) is worth..."

[Guest]

I'd bet the Cubs are sort of reverse engineering here, i.e., "If Russell and company were worth both Shark and Hammel, then Castro (a proven, 3-win ML shortstop) is worth..."

I don't think it works that way. I think they don't have to trade Castro and if a team asks, the team has to make an overwhelming offer.

[Bull]

I'm skeptical of the magnitude of the effect that framing has.

 

I'm skeptical of how much control catchers have over that effect, and by extension, how much benefit getting a player from another team with quality framing numbers would offer.

 

I'm skeptical that it's not a skill like bat speed, where small losses due to age have large negative effects.

 

And I'm skeptical that given their ages, that Castillo and Martin's offensive production won't converge.

 

That said, I'd still bet that Martin is better than Castillo for the next year or two, but I'm not sure how much.

Yup

Whoever framed Greg Maddux's pitches was the best ever at it!

[Guest]

i bet eddie perez probably was pretty decent at it

[Bull]

i bet eddie perez probably was pretty decent at it

I'm sure you get the point that umpire "respect" for established pitchers has more to do with pitches off the plate being called strikes than a catchers ability in that "skill". This is a time where the numbers lie, or at least we can't discern how much of the number is being generated by which factor.