2014 Cubs Pick Discussion

[Guest]

Counting Schwarber, Zagunis, Sands and Steele:

 

2014 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $6,176,600

2014 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $6,485,430

2014 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,840,000

2014 Bonus Pool +/-: $336,600 Under Budget

2014 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $645,430 Under Budget

Cease's slot is $269,500. If he's getting a million like everybody seems to think, Stinnett is going to have to take underslot, but probably not by too much. If he takes $1 million, you still have about $200k to play with even after Cease gets $1 million.

 

I don't think Cease signs for less than what Sands got.

[davell]

We'll likely save 200-300K on 8-10 and I can see us saving 300-500k on Stinnett. Plus, we have over 400k in 5% money. If Cease signs outside of 1.2-1.5 mill, I'll be extremely surprised.

[KingCubsFan]

Counting Schwarber, Zagunis, Sands and Steele:

 

2014 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $6,176,600

2014 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $6,485,430

2014 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,840,000

2014 Bonus Pool +/-: $336,600 Under Budget

2014 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $645,430 Under Budget

Cease's slot is $269,500. If he's getting a million like everybody seems to think, Stinnett is going to have to take underslot, but probably not by too much. If he takes $1 million, you still have about $200k to play with even after Cease gets $1 million.

 

I don't think Cease signs for less than what Sands got.

Even with the injury?

[davell]

Counting Schwarber, Zagunis, Sands and Steele:

 

2014 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $6,176,600

2014 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $6,485,430

2014 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,840,000

2014 Bonus Pool +/-: $336,600 Under Budget

2014 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $645,430 Under Budget

Cease's slot is $269,500. If he's getting a million like everybody seems to think, Stinnett is going to have to take underslot, but probably not by too much. If he takes $1 million, you still have about $200k to play with even after Cease gets $1 million.

 

I don't think Cease signs for less than what Sands got.

Even with the injury?

 

He was a possible top 10 pick prior to the injury. Just because we think pitchers are risky, it doesn't mean they won't bet on themselves.

[Guest]

Agree with davell. He was much more well thought of before the elbow injury and will need to be paid somewhere between his current ranking and his prior top-10/20 status.

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Multiple teams told me predraft workout Trackman/PitchFX data for pitchers were key for early picks. Not only "stat-friendly" teams, either.

[Guest]

@NickJFaleris: #Cubs signing Sands/Steele = solid value, even w/overslot. Aggregate $2.1 MM $125K over my valuation; more than reasonable leverage tax.

[davell]

Cantu is going to Texas. Oh well.

[KingCubsFan]

Norwood has signed.

[jersey cubs fan]

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales 42s

Cubs confirm signings of 2nd rnd pick RHP Jake Stinnett and 7th rnd pick RHP James Norwood. LHP Carson Sands, LHP Justin Steele also signed

[Guest]

Press Release

[davell]

Stinnett got a mill. Little more than I was hoping to see there.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So Cease and Gilliam are this years Maples and Dunston?

[Tryptamine]

So Cease and Gilliam are this years Maples and Dunston?

 

Cease is the last really big fish that can be expected to sign. Gilliam was never going to happen and McLeod pretty much acknowledged as much.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel on Isiah Gilliam who was at the Perfect Game National Showcase last week (normally a showcase for the next year's draft class but remember, Gilliam was only recently reclassified for 2014):

 

Gilliam was re-classified to the 2014 class in the middle of the spring and clubs didn't have the history to pull the trigger on a big bonus and high pick with just a handful of looks before the draft. Right after re-classifying, Gilliam's team played at the NHSI event in front of over 100 scouts, but with no public BP and Gilliam taking infield at first base, all scouts had there were game swings and Gilliam's was all arms, though the upper half worked well.

 

At PG National, he showed what I had heard he worked on later in the spring, integrated his lower half, which unlocked his above average raw power from both sides of the plate. The 6'3/215 athlete also showed some ability at third base during infield, was solid at the plate during the games and still hasn't turned 18, aged more with the 2015 players he was facing at this event. His average arm and below average speed make left field or even first base the most likely landing spots. The Cubs may run out of draft pool money before they can meet Gilliam's price, forcing him to Florida panhandle power Chipola JC, but he made himself some money at PG National and is a top 3 round talent.

[davell]

Norwood gets 175,000-26,900 UNDER slot. Very surprised based on his pre-draft rankings honestly.

[Tedward]

FWIW, Callis answering his 2nd tweet within last couple of days this evening

on Cease, expressing confidence he will sign.

[Tryptamine]

I may be wrong in the future, but I really kind of wish Steele's money was given to Gilliam. There's been some really glowing reviews lately.

[Guest]

Including Schwarber, Stinnett, Zagunis, Sands, Steele and Norwood (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7):

 

2014 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $7,628,900

2014 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $8,010,345

2014 Bonus Pool Spending: $7,015,000

2014 Bonus Pool +/-: $613,900 Under Budget

2014 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $995,345 Under Budget (the first $100,000 in a bonus for players selected after round 10 doesn't count against the pool)

 

First post in this thread is up-to-date with bonus info.

[ScrubMD]

 

Martarano says he's signing today.

[davell]

Thorpe, Brink, Williams, and Mitchell all official. Hope we get the numbers on Thorpe and Williams soon.

[Guest]

19th rounder Brad Markey, 26th rounder Zach Hedges and 27th rounder Calvin Graves have all signed since they're on the official AZL Cubs roster.

[craig]

Kiley McDaniel on Isiah Gilliam who was at the Perfect Game National Showcase last week (normally a showcase for the next year's draft class but remember, Gilliam was only recently reclassified for 2014):

 

Gilliam was re-classified to the 2014 class in the middle of the spring and clubs didn't have the history to pull the trigger on a big bonus and high pick with just a handful of looks before the draft. Right after re-classifying, Gilliam's team played at the NHSI event in front of over 100 scouts, but with no public BP and Gilliam taking infield at first base, all scouts had there were game swings and Gilliam's was all arms, though the upper half worked well.

 

At PG National, he showed what I had heard he worked on later in the spring, integrated his lower half, which unlocked his above average raw power from both sides of the plate. The 6'3/215 athlete also showed some ability at third base during infield, was solid at the plate during the games and still hasn't turned 18, aged more with the 2015 players he was facing at this event. His average arm and below average speed make left field or even first base the most likely landing spots. The Cubs may run out of draft pool money before they can meet Gilliam's price, forcing him to Florida panhandle power Chipola JC, but he made himself some money at PG National and is a top 3 round talent.

 

Thanks. Other than Gilliam, picks 1-27 were all guys they expected to sign. 28 and on is where they started all the no-expectation-to-sign rounds.

 

So Gilliam is curiously out of place.

 

Seems pretty likely that he was viewed as a more highly prioritized Cease-alternative than the later picks in the no-sign rounds.

 

Hope it doesn't come to that, and Cease signs on. But in case he doesn't, it's nice to read that Gilliam is looking better than ever. Who knows, maybe they'll end up signing Gilliam and he'll become a good middle-of-the-order producer for years. Seems like an interesting fall-back plan.

[JeffH]

If we don't sign Cease and lose that slot money, will there be enough left to make a meaningful offer to Gilliam or someone else post-Round 10?

[davell]

If we don't sign Cease and lose that slot money, will there be enough left to make a meaningful offer to Gilliam or someone else post-Round 10?

 

Oh yeah. Cease is only 269,500 against the cap. If we missed on him, we'd have the 600,000+ we're currently under, plus our 5% money(losing Cease, it's still 400k) and the likely savings on rounds 8-10(another 200-300k probably)

 

We most likely will have 1.5 or so available to spend on Cease and others. Or 1.2 to spend if Cease declines. Honestly, it's a nice position to be in. I personally hope we get Cease, even if its at the full 1.5, but it's easy to find interesting combos of the 11-40 round guys as well.