Samardzija trade rumors

[davell]

With the lack of FA now, if Shark puts up 8-10 WAR over this season and next, I could definitely see him sniffing 135-150 mill. All it takes is one team to see an ace with a bit less mileage on his arm than others his age.

[SouthSideRyan]

5/65 last year (when that offer was first mentioned) is buying out his arbitration years and 3 FA years at 17 million per. Hardly insulting.

 

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

14M for his last 2 arb years basically assumes he sucks

 

Call it 16 million then(still more than Bailey's AAV) if that really bothers you. We already know he's making 5 mil this year, the odds of him making 13+ in arbitration next year are not good.

 

Next year is when he gets to be compared to FAs as contemporaries. I'm kind of expecting 13m to be around what whatever team he's on offers him

[SouthSideRyan]

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

There's also a very good chance that either Kaplans number is [expletive] fed to him by the cubs or samardzija wants to get the [expletive] out of here

[bigkid66]

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

 

Did Ervin's prior 3 year compare to Samardzija's past 3 years? They aren't paying big contracts based on career years in your walk season.

results-wise, yes (3.85 vs. 3.87 ERA), but Shark supported it with much stronger peripherals, which GMs seem to be putting more stock into these days

 

you're clearly missing the main point, though; nowhere did i suggest Shark will have to accept $14M, but i do think he's very likely going to be in for a rude awakening if he expects $135M in full

 

I'm not missing the point. My point was there's a very good reason for Shark excepting nothing less than the maximum. Plenty of 30+ year old pitchers make $20+/years and there is more and more money available to more and more teams. He has very little incentive to accept a less, yet safer, deal today and he can't really be threatened with a "look what happened to Garza" story. Even if he does pull a Garza and get hurt between now and then he can still probably get another $50m. That isn't a cautionary tale.

 

Plenty? Assuming the website I used is correct, I only see five 30+ year old pitchers making $20MM or more. Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, Hamels and Verlander. I think we can agree Samardzija does not have the resume of any of them.

[dew1679666265]

I've flipped. I wanted to keep Shark but I'm now on the side of trading him at the deadline.

 

Me too. I think you can get a guy with Shark's potential AND another piece or 2. I'd rather save the 100Mil, get a couple prospects and then have an assload of money to spend to fill the holes from whatever prospects don't pan out.

 

I think it's a needless gamble to trade away a current ace in the hopes that you get somebody exactly like your current guy plus a couple other pieces. If some team wants to blow us away with a Bundy+Gausman/Harvey+a couple lesser pieces or something similar, I'm all for trading Shark. I would have a very, very small window of what I would accept, though, and not deviate much. Spending in FA isn't particularly exciting either, since most of the guys available will be older/worse/more expensive than Shark.

 

If he really is demanding something silly like $135, then maybe you need to make a move. At this point, though, I'd say it's as likely as not that Mark Rogers knows there's a year and a half before he's a FA and this is a negotiating ploy. There's still plenty of time to negotiate and/or convince him we want to win games.

[dew1679666265]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Not that it's a terribly significant amount and it's probably nitpicking, but the 6/135 number comes out to $22.5 per year, doesn't it?

[Guest]

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

 

Did Ervin's prior 3 year compare to Samardzija's past 3 years? They aren't paying big contracts based on career years in your walk season.

results-wise, yes (3.85 vs. 3.87 ERA), but Shark supported it with much stronger peripherals, which GMs seem to be putting more stock into these days

 

you're clearly missing the main point, though; nowhere did i suggest Shark will have to accept $14M, but i do think he's very likely going to be in for a rude awakening if he expects $135M in full

 

I'm not missing the point. My point was there's a very good reason for Shark excepting nothing less than the maximum. Plenty of 30+ year old pitchers make $20+/years and there is more and more money available to more and more teams. He has very little incentive to accept a less, yet safer, deal today and he can't really be threatened with a "look what happened to Garza" story. Even if he does pull a Garza and get hurt between now and then he can still probably get another $50m. That isn't a cautionary tale.

 

Plenty? Assuming the website I used is correct, I only see five 30+ year old pitchers making $20MM or more. Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, Hamels and Verlander. I think we can agree Samardzija does not have the resume of any of them.

He doesn't have to have the resume of any of them. He has to find an owner willing to pay it. I'm almost positive he'll get something closer to 20 than to 14.

 

I've done a 180 on him. He looks like he knows what he's doing out there and he has the stuff. They need to pay him market and keep him. They need him much more than he needs them.

[Guest]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Not that it's a terribly significant amount and it's probably nitpicking, but the 6/135 number comes out to $22.5 per year, doesn't it?

 

Shark is arbitration eligible next year.

[Felix Leiter]

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

There's also a very good chance that either Kaplans number is [expletive] fed to him by the cubs or samardzija wants to get the [expletive] out of here

 

Kapman has no pipeline to the Cubs anymore. When Hendry was here he spoonfed Kapper stories that were just trial balloons. Jed and Theo don't play media favorites and there aren't the leaks(cough) we had before. He just makes up stories to have something to talk about on the radio.

 

EJax makes $13M and Shark can see he's better than him. But he'll also be 30 next year and to commit $16-18M for a number of years, before you see what Baez, Bryant etc.. do up here is silly. Trade him now for a great package and we can move on.

[dew1679666265]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Not that it's a terribly significant amount and it's probably nitpicking, but the 6/135 number comes out to $22.5 per year, doesn't it?

 

Shark is arbitration eligible next year.

 

I figured the contract would replace that year.

[Guest]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Not that it's a terribly significant amount and it's probably nitpicking, but the 6/135 number comes out to $22.5 per year, doesn't it?

 

Shark is arbitration eligible next year.

 

I figured the contract would replace that year.

 

It would, but if he waits til free agency, it won't. Asking for 6/135 from the Cubs is roughly equivalent equivalent to assuming he'll get 5/(135-arb) in free agency.

[Andy]

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

There's also a very good chance that either Kaplans number is [expletive] fed to him by the cubs or samardzija wants to get the [expletive] out of here

 

Kapman has no pipeline to the Cubs anymore. When Hendry was here he spoonfed Kapper stories that were just trial balloons. Jed and Theo don't play media favorites and there aren't the leaks(cough) we had before. He just makes up stories to have something to talk about on the radio.

 

EJax makes $13M and Shark can see he's better than him. But he'll also be 30 next year and to commit $16-18M for a number of years, before you see what Baez, Bryant etc.. do up here is silly. Trade him now for a great package and we can move on.

I'm not saying Shark is the person to do this with, but at some point Theo and Jed are going to have to try to compete without having actually done it. You can play this "can't sign X without seeing what Y and Z do up here" game forever otherwise.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That point is after guys like Bryant and Baez have established themselves as comfortably solid major leaguers.

 

If they were going to make a move before that, they would have done it by now.

[dew1679666265]

It would, but if he waits til free agency, it won't. Asking for 6/135 from the Cubs is roughly equivalent equivalent to assuming he'll get 5/(135-arb) in free agency.

 

Ok, I see what you're saying now.

[gscool89]

Morosi:

Source confirms Jeff Samardzija rejected a five-year offer from Cubs. Value was slightly more than $85 million, source said.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Morosi:

Source confirms Jeff Samardzija rejected a five-year offer from Cubs. Value was slightly more than $85 million, source said.

 

I don't blame them for not wanting to go higher and I don't blame him for rejecting it.

[Cubswin11]

Morosi:

Source confirms Jeff Samardzija rejected a five-year offer from Cubs. Value was slightly more than $85 million, source said.

 

I don't blame them for not wanting to go higher and I don't blame him for rejecting it.

I agree, I think ~$18 mil AAV is very fair and I don't think he will get much more than that on the open market. Though he could get an extra year or two and higher overall total.

[WrigleyField 22]

I hope they just keep him and try to resign him.

 

 

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[SouthSideRyan]

Morosi:

Source confirms Jeff Samardzija rejected a five-year offer from Cubs. Value was slightly more than $85 million, source said.

 

I don't blame them for not wanting to go higher and I don't blame him for rejecting it.

I agree, I think ~$18 mil AAV is very fair and I don't think he will get much more than that on the open market. Though he could get an extra year or two and higher overall total.

 

I'm sure he could get a NTC on the open market and he's probably really sick of the cubs franchise

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's a fair deal for both sides, but unless he tanks, he'll get at least that much in the winter. My guess is that he's banking on Lester and/or Scherzer to re-up before season's end, in which case he's looking at something ridiculous.

[d_money]

Bad for us, good for Shark. He's pitching his nuts off and wants more. The Cubs should benefit in the end with what should be a good return.

[Guest]

It's a fair deal for both sides, but unless he tanks, he'll get at least that much in the winter. My guess is that he's banking on Lester and/or Scherzer to re-up before season's end, in which case he's looking at something ridiculous.

 

Samardzija is not a free agent after this year.

[RynoRules]

You can't argue with what the Cubs offered him, IMO. He'd be nearly 35 when that deal ended, correct? I also understand why he'd rather see what he's worth at arbitration and then free agency.

[Sammy Sofa]

You can't argue with what the Cubs offered him, IMO. He'd be nearly 35 when that deal ended, correct? I also understand why he'd rather see what he's worth at arbitration and then free agency.

 

I CAN ARGUE ANYTHING YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF ME

[Guest]

i'd give him more than 85