NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2014

[SouthSideRyan]

Seemingly everyone has them a lock but SMU just took their 3rd terrible loss of the season and they have 4 good wins and then not a single win of worth beyond that. The bottom half of the AAC is just awful and their noncon had 2 games of note, both of which they lost

[UMFan83]

Seemingly everyone has them a lock but SMU just took their 3rd terrible loss of the season and they have 4 good wins and then not a single win of worth beyond that. The bottom half of the AAC is just awful and their noncon had 2 games of note, both of which they lost

 

Yeah I think they are still on the right side of the bubble, but definitely not a lock.

[bukie]

Seemingly everyone has them a lock but SMU just took their 3rd terrible loss of the season and they have 4 good wins and then not a single win of worth beyond that. The bottom half of the AAC is just awful and their noncon had 2 games of note, both of which they lost

I had them in the bubble list.

[bukie]

Even with the bad loss today, I still think Nova is a 1 seed easy.

[Cubswin11]

Even with the bad loss today, I still think Nova is a 1 seed easy.

I think if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten tournament they take the 1 seed from them

[UMFan83]

Even with the bad loss today, I still think Nova is a 1 seed easy.

 

you think they deserve to be, or you think that the committee will still make them a 1 seed (or both)?

[bukie]

Even with the bad loss today, I still think Nova is a 1 seed easy.

 

you think they deserve to be, or you think that the committee will still make them a 1 seed (or both)?

Both, they're at the top of my list.

[bukie]

Even with the bad loss today, I still think Nova is a 1 seed easy.

I think if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten tournament they take the 1 seed from them

If Wisconsin takes a 1 seed from anyone, it might be Wichita.

[bukie]

Exhibit A of "Louisville looks good in efficiency because they run up the score on weaker teams" in full effect today.

[abuck1220]

someone explain to me what's so great about nova. is it just because they haven't lost many games? because they sure don't have a great collection of wins.

[bukie]

someone explain to me what's so great about nova. is it just because they haven't lost many games? because they sure don't have a great collection of wins.

Until today, their worst loss was home to Creighton. N/R wins against Kansas, Iowa, St. Joe's, Marquette, Xavier, Georgetown, St. John's, and Providence, all at least in mention for potential tourney teams, and 8 such wins is more than most. Big East was better than many give it credit for top to bottom (only DePaul was really bad), and they won that.

[bukie]

Updated my data based on games thus far today and updated KP ratings.

 

First thought...damn it, Illinois, what are you doing there?!

[bukie]

So, if I go just by value based on T1 wins being worth double, T2 wins normal, T3 wins half, T1 losses half, T2 losses even, T3 losses double, Illinois makes the field as the last team in.

 

If I used my adjusted value by factoring in efficiency, Illinois is the second to last team out (ahead of Tennessee) behind Kansas State, with Stanford being the last in.

[bukie]

All I can really do is swear that I'm not building any bias into the data.

 

EDIT: As the data goes, Illinois passed Clemson, Georgetown, Utah, Indiana, Missouri, Green Bay, Arkansas, St. John's, and Tennessee (who will re-pass Illinois if they win tonight).

[bukie]

I'll post updated info once the games from today are over, since teams that haven't played yet can still add value.

 

I'm just not sure about how Illinois is where they are right now.

[bukie]

For fun though, here's the current "end of the bubble", in random order.

 

http://i.imgur.com/PZX0VsB.png

 

Rank these 8 teams. Right now, just two of them are in.

[Rex Buckingham]

For fun though, here's the current "end of the bubble", in random order.

 

http://i.imgur.com/PZX0VsB.png

 

Rank these 8 teams. Right now, just two of them are in.

 

I think I would rank them as follows : E, A, B, C, D, H, F, G... but man it just seems like a jumble of really similar teams

[bukie]

Yeah, they are really similar, which is why they are together at the end of the bubble. :)

 

In the name of full disclosure, Teams A and D split on the year, teams E and F split on the year, teams A and D beat team H, and team D beat team F. That info might just allow the more savvy folks to figure out who they are.

[wekim81]

I think E and B are my favorite teams from that chart. That and the Illini. I like them too. :)

[SouthSideRyan]

That groupingis a mess. I like A best and I guess E the least?

 

Bottom 3 F-G-E?

 

ETa did that without looking at EM so maybe reverse that bottom 3 and throw H in there as well? Yeesh

Edited March 14, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

A - Nebraska

B - Stanford

C - Kansas State

D - Illinois

E - Tennessee

F - Missouri

G - St. John's

H - Minnesota

[bukie]

Also, the most likely bid thief (UTEP, assuming La Tech was at-large worthy) lost at home in the C-USA quarters to Southern Miss. With Louisiana Tech trouncing their opponent, that guarantees at least one team in the C-USA finals in the at-large consideration. Still could get a bid stolen if, say, Tech makes the finals and loses, but it's significantly less likely now.

[bukie]

Updated data (spoiled for long):

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/dMausXs.png

http://i.imgur.com/AMRmeL5.png

http://i.imgur.com/aaqPQfL.png

http://i.imgur.com/0Qoy7hG.png

 

 

First 8 out:

http://i.imgur.com/2QbJnUC.png

 

Utah and Green Bay are basically done, since they can't improve at all and there won't be enough teams that fall back that far to bump them up by default. NC State and LSU are the only two other teams that could potentially play their way into bubble talk...and only maybe at that.

[bukie]

Stanford over ASU 79-58. Good for Stanford, bad for ASU.

[UMFan83]

St. Joes beats Dayton. bukie, you think Dayton is safe even with the loss?

 

Nebraska blows an 18 point lead and loses to Ohio State. Same question about Nebraska.