NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2014

[SouthSideRyan]

Southland is another weird conference this year. 12 of the 14 teams played 18 conference games, while the other two played 14 conference games.

 

Incarnate Word, which finished 21-6 and 9-5 in conference, played 12 OOC games against D2 and D3 teams, possibly the weakest OOC scheduling in D1 history. And are inelgible for the conference tourney.

 

Southland is so weird, in fact, that Oral Roberts, who just joined last year, is going back to their previous conference, since the Southland is so bad that Incarnate Word could finish 3rd despite playing the above mentioned non-con schedule.

 

Of course, Incarnate Word finished ahead of ORU in the standings...

[bukie]

Manhattan victorious in MAAC-achusetts (their words, not mine).

 

Wofford wins SoCon.

[bukie]

Delaware wins the CAA. Man, the CAA is bad now.

[bukie]

No team is going to benefit from their RPI more than UMass this year. 17 right now.

[Exile on Waveland]

Delaware wins the CAA. Man, the CAA is bad now.

 

More proof that conference realignment ruined college sports!

[bukie]

Delaware wins the CAA. Man, the CAA is bad now.

 

More proof that conference realignment ruined college sports!

Realignment has not been kind to the CAA, CUSA, old Big East, MVC, or Southland.

[SouthSideRyan]

And the WAC. Although the teams of the Great West certainly benefited.

[bukie]

One of the 16 seed play-in teams is set, as Mount St. Mary's wins the NEC at 16-16.

 

Milwaukee wins the Horizon as the 5 seed.

[bukie]

North Dakota State comes back to beat IPFW to win the Summit.

[bukie]

Gonzaga holds on to win the WCC.

[bukie]

No lists last night, so I'll set things up differently. I have to compile some information, and then I'll update the thread.

[bukie]

Loaded the KP top 32 into the script, and set up a value based on the tier system, where T1 wins counted double, T3 wins counted half, T1 losses counted half, and T3 losses counted double. Here is the top 16 based on that value:

 

http://i.imgur.com/R8L2dhR.png

 

Continuing to add every possible at-large consideration to the script, and getting the rest of the auto bids in there also. One auto bid is in that list already, another fell just outside the list for now.

[bukie]

Based on the information, to me it looks like there's a clear top 3 of Villanova, Arizona and Florida, with the 4th top seed being up for grabs between Wisconsin, Syracuse, and Wichita State. Wichita State didn't get a lot of good wins, but they had a good EM in their good wins, and comparable EM to both Syracuse and Wisconsin in other tiers. Granted, Syracuse and Wisconsin still have opportunities to pick up more good wins (and bad losses), so things are still a bit up in the air.

[bukie]

Tweaked my value formula a bit for reasons explained soon (incorporating both EM and KP Pythag rating). Went through Missouri on KP's ratings (71), since they were the last team to be included in a bubble list somewhere.

 

Here was the top 16 in tier value (i.e. would be protected top 4 seeds):

http://i.imgur.com/R7BLBSd.png

 

Here was the next 16 in tier value (i.e. seeds 5-8):

http://i.imgur.com/uvWmN40.png

 

And here are the "bubble"-level teams:

http://i.imgur.com/nMjARZv.png

 

Note, if we go strictly by tier value, the last 4 teams in are Kansas St., Providence, Southern Miss and Nebraska, meaning Tennessee, Arkansas, Minnesota, Cal and St. John's would be out. I added in effiency margin and KP rating to the value calculation because before that, Tennessee was coming in behind Illinois (who comes in 4 behind this list, actually, ahead of Minnesota...).

 

This is hardly concrete, but here's a place to open it up for discussion. Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

[bukie]

Also, still compiling a list of single-bid league winners and projected winners.

[bukie]

Utah beat Washington, giving it another Tier 2 win. They get Arizona tomorrow.

[Exile on Waveland]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

[bukie]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

Virginia benefitted from one of the most friendly ACC schedules possible to win the ACC.

[UMFan83]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

Virginia benefitted from one of the most friendly ACC schedules possible to win the ACC.

 

And yet all the computer numbers seem to like them, don't they?

[bukie]

Huh, I suppose I should add Georgia, considering they finished 3rd in the SEC.

[bukie]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

Virginia benefitted from one of the most friendly ACC schedules possible to win the ACC.

 

And yet all the computer numbers seem to like them, don't they?

They were rather efficient in their friendly schedule yes.

[bukie]

Like I said, though, highly open to interpretation. Virginia at 10 seems too low, but I don't see a team ahead of them I'd say has to be behind them aside from maybe Syracuse, and that's from Syracuse looking much worse of late. Body of work overall probably favors Syracuse.

[Exile on Waveland]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

Virginia benefitted from one of the most friendly ACC schedules possible to win the ACC.

 

Well, yeah, you're talking to annoying "Mr.-eye-test-guy" but that Tennessee-Virginia score is still pretty inexplicable.

[bukie]

Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.

 

And Virginia (?????).

Virginia benefitted from one of the most friendly ACC schedules possible to win the ACC.

 

Well, yeah, you're talking to annoying "Mr.-eye-test-guy" but that Tennessee-Virginia score is still pretty inexplicable.

It's not even eye test, they've both been really good in effiency stats as well, but body of work hurts them. That was what I was getting at from the Virginia comment. Looking at Virginia's Tier 1 performance, it's a little lacking compared to the other top teams. They have avoided the bad losses, though, and they still have opportunities to pick up good wins.

 

Tennessee, on the other hand, is in an SEC with two good teams and a pile of nothing. Their recent performance really kicked them up the efficiency charts, but by then the overall body of work damage has been done. They're 6-9 in meaningful games and have 2 bad losses.

[bukie]

American beat top seed Boston U to win the Patriot League bid.

 

Georgetown took a bad loss to DePaul.