Who is the Cubs #11 Prospect?

[A New Era]

Us having Olt around the 11/12 range is going to look silly in September. Either he's back to 2012 Olt (in which case he's way higher than this) or he's really broken in which case he's not anywhere near the top 20.

 

Then we are getting it about right. 11 is right in the middle of Cubs every day regular and bust. Because he is such a high risk high reward type of guy, 11 is a more than reasonable spot to rank him. Think of him being somewhat comparable to Vizciano from last year where he was ranked mid top 10s (sheesh that tells you how much our farm has improved). Because even at that time we knew his injury risk but weighed that against his upside as a high leverage reliever.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Vizcaino being ranked in the middle of the top-10 had more to do with how much we loved him before we found out he had Angel Guzman Disease.

 

If there were still a chance for him being healthy, he'd be right there with Edwards and Johnson. Maybe even above both.

[SouthSideRyan]

Plus Olt has a way better chance to be more valuable than Jackson because of his defense at third and power.

 

Until he doesn't see the ball coming and it detaches his retina...unless...is it like a cartoon? Can't see straight, ball hits you In the eye, bam 20/20

[ctcf]

Olt and Hendricks in that order for me.

[ctcf]

Plus Olt has a way better chance to be more valuable than Jackson because of his defense at third and power.

 

Until he doesn't see the ball coming and it detaches his retina...unless...is it like a cartoon? Can't see straight, ball hits you In the eye, bam 20/20

 

Maybe he could a career out of being like that one time Ron Santo saw three balls at once due to super low blood sugar and just guessed the right ball?

[toonsterwu]

Toonster's going to get all the I-told-you-so's if cabrera emerges as a useful big league reliever some day. He's not on my top-30, either. Funny thing with him, he gets the buzz for "big stuff", but he's pretty much always been easy to hit. His hits-per-inning rate, his HR rate, and his WHIP's have always been high. I know he's got a big-league are strength/velocity-wise, and he can throw some pitches that look very good at times. But I suspect a lot of results are based less on the best pitches a guy throws, but on the frequency and badness of the mistakes. But, you never know. A good pitching coach, a little confidence, a little tinkering, and maybe suddenly hitters can't tell his sliders from his fastballs anymore. Or maybe a guy adds a cutter and hitters can't guess movement and location anymore.

 

Keep up the good fight for your guy, toonster. I do wonder if he has a good spring, if there's any chance a team will claim him? I assume he's pretty easy safe to waive down to Iowa, but you never know; sometimes teams will claim a good-armed guy like that.

 

Just picking one of three posts, so this isn't directed at craig -

 

a) I haven't really pondered any lists this offseason. Actually, I haven't pondered baseball much at all.

 

b) I simply said I would consider him. I probably would. Don't love him, simply think he'll get multiple looks as a big league pen arm during his career because of his stuff (see, say, someone like Marcos Mateo).

 

Here's the thing - this is a mess of names after 10 (and I'm not exactly jumping for joy at 10 either with Candelario). This isn't to say it's bad ... it's a mess of "average"/"somewhat intriguing" options. That's far better than most systems, and in many years past, where we had to stretch to find intrigue outside of the top few spots. So, let me repeat, by "mess", I'm not saying it's bad, as there are obviously guys I like.

 

a) You want to sell me on Arodys? Fine, but I'll counter 2 years of inactivity is as big a question as lack of command. Even if the stuff is back, there has to be legitimate curiosity as to how consistent he is.

b) You want to argue Olt? As noted, can I buy it? Fine, but it's not like his K rate was ... good to begin with, and few scouting reports suggested he would be a high average hitter. I don't think it's ridiculous to question how much of a decline he really took because of his eye problems. Basically, I want to see him prove it a bit. There's definitely value in his defense and power.

c) I've never loved Hendricks as it pertains to rankings. Simply put, and I've been fairly consistent with guys like this (I think), I just don't see the ceiling because of his stuff, and as such, he really needs to continue to prove it. Off the top, I have never really rated end of the rotation options all that high unless they were coming off some sort of major league stint that proved themselves. Again, he could be good, but he's going to have to prove it to me continuously. Maybe he will. Is it fair? Perhaps not, but it's the way I feel about control guys with average stuff.

d) Blackburn - This was actually tempting, but at a certain point, we can talk about raw stuff that a guy has shown, that a guy has potential for, but he has to actually show it consistently. I will say this - considering I tend to place a bit more emphasis on upside, if he can consistently show a fastball in the mid-90's and performance to match, then he should probably be top 10. I've actually grown a bit wary of Candelario.

 

____

 

So, it seems like some folks, besides myself, are willing to consider Neil Ramirez in this area. What exactly is the huge difference between Ramirez and Cabrera to mark 3 straight responses about how ridiculous it is to suggest Cabrera in this area? The only major difference, really, is one of knowledge (we "know" Cabrera, we don't "know" Ramirez as well), and one of perception that this brain trust "knows better". (This isn't to say that I think they are equal ... I clearly have Neil ahead). Otherwise, we're looking at two power-armed guys, slightly older for their levels, having both repeated levels, and both are likely destined for the pen. Ramirez has a bit better shot to start, but realistically, betting money, as of right now, would probably be on a future in the pen. Corey Black is also another guy that fits into the same mold in regards to big stuff, command problems, likely destined for the pen.

____

 

That said, I wasn't locking him into my 3rd spot. I simply said I would consider him. I think I'd be rather stunned if he wasn't picked up by another team and was allowed to go back to Iowa. Teams tend to gamble more on power arms, even in the pen, to at least give them another look. I can see davell's scenario where he gets picked up by a few teams and dropped when a team needs to make a spot for someone else.

 

I'm rather surprised that most of you seem to have him off the top 30. Much as I like the unknown as much as the next guy, the reality is that, for us to get a useful upper minors player out of many of the lower level guys considered in the 10-30 range of our prospects would be a win in its own right, and there aren't many people left that have huge ceilings that have played full-season ball.

____

 

Metaphorical gun to my head right now, if I had to go with a 3rd name, it would probably be Vizcaino, since the upside was that good. If you wanted to argue Josh Vitters, I wouldn't be against it (I actually think he could obliterate AAA pitching IF he stays healthy ... I'm just not sure how well that translates to the big leagues). Heck, I could buy an argument for Eloy Jimenez here, much as I absolutely loathe the idea (not about Eloy, more just the idea of putting on a young international signing with zero track record stateside).

[toonsterwu]

Toonster's going to get all the I-told-you-so's if cabrera emerges as a useful big league reliever some day. He's not on my top-30, either. Funny thing with him, he gets the buzz for "big stuff", but he's pretty much always been easy to hit. His hits-per-inning rate, his HR rate, and his WHIP's have always been high. I know he's got a big-league are strength/velocity-wise, and he can throw some pitches that look very good at times. But I suspect a lot of results are based less on the best pitches a guy throws, but on the frequency and badness of the mistakes. But, you never know. A good pitching coach, a little confidence, a little tinkering, and maybe suddenly hitters can't tell his sliders from his fastballs anymore. Or maybe a guy adds a cutter and hitters can't guess movement and location anymore.

 

Keep up the good fight for your guy, toonster. I do wonder if he has a good spring, if there's any chance a team will claim him? I assume he's pretty easy safe to waive down to Iowa, but you never know; sometimes teams will claim a good-armed guy like that.

 

Is toonster that high on Cabrera? I definitely am and will have him around 20.

 

Not that high. Around 20 seems more reasonable ... I simply don't think it's ridiculous to consider him around 13. Roughly sketching out names, based on the vote trend right now, and I'm guessing I think 16-18 will be where I really vote Cabrera. I think there's a heavy tendency to favor the excitement of the unknown of youth that we often forget that developing a useful upper minors player is difficult enough, let alone a useful upper minors player with some big league potential. I'm probably as guilty as anyone of occasionally putting upside guys in the lower levels ahead at times, but I'm just not sure I see big enough individual upsides, and enough guys with said upside, in the lower levels to downgrade Cabrera to outside of the top 30.

[A New Era]

Vizcaino being ranked in the middle of the top-10 had more to do with how much we loved him before we found out he had Angel Guzman Disease.

 

If there were still a chance for him being healthy, he'd be right there with Edwards and Johnson. Maybe even above both.

 

Are you completely erasing his TJS and arm troubles? If you did that sure I'd put him above Edwards as a possible #2 starter. But you can't just erase history like you can't erase Olt's problems. But what I'm saying is even with Olt's problems I put him around 11. Having said that Vizciano isn't too far behind because he also has a sliver of hope for upside left in him.

[Guest]

I'd put Vizcaino's likelihood of having a successful major league career well above that of Olt.

[rawaction]

I'd put Vizcaino's likelihood of having a successful major league career well above that of Olt.

 

Yep. Which is why Vizcaino should be ranked higher. It's easier to overcome arm injuries for a pitcher than it is to overcome blindness and complete failure as a hitter for 15 months.

[toonsterwu]

Vizcaino being ranked in the middle of the top-10 had more to do with how much we loved him before we found out he had Angel Guzman Disease.

 

If there were still a chance for him being healthy, he'd be right there with Edwards and Johnson. Maybe even above both.

 

Are you completely erasing his TJS and arm troubles? If you did that sure I'd put him above Edwards as a possible #2 starter. But you can't just erase history like you can't erase Olt's problems. But what I'm saying is even with Olt's problems I put him around 11. Having said that Vizciano isn't too far behind because he also has a sliver of hope for upside left in him.

 

The way I compare those two is this -

 

a) A healthy Vizcaino had a higher ceiling and floor, IMO, than Olt.

b) So the question is a matter of degree. It's a bit more subjective here, but when I think about Arodys, I am sort of reminded of Hong-Chih Kuo (in the multiple surgery sense). If he's battling back, as all indications are, that's a good first sign. Getting mentally back is easier said than done.

 

I can see arguments either way, but I would lean Vizcaino ahead of Olt.

[Guest]

I'd put Vizcaino's likelihood of having a successful major league career well above that of Olt.

 

Probably, but the setbacks have almost certainly killed any lingering chance of him being an MLB starter. That lowers his ceiling enough enough to put Olt in front for me, since Vizcaino isn't exactly a slam dunk to be a great MLB reliever.

[craig]

...Here's the thing - this is a mess of names after 10 (and I'm not exactly jumping for joy at 10 either with Candelario). This isn't to say it's bad ... it's a mess of "average"/"somewhat intriguing" options. That's far better than most systems, and in many years past, where we had to stretch to find intrigue outside of the top few spots. So, let me repeat, by "mess", I'm not saying it's bad, as there are obviously guys I like…..

 

I agree that it's a "mess" in that it's hard to sift them out. If there was a guy with both great talent who'd also showed great proven performance at a highish level, he'd not be under discussion here in the second ten. Anybody who's left here is still on the board because there are health concerns (Vizcaino, Olt, Ramirez); limited talent concerns (Hendricks); far distant and/or unproven concerns (Blackburn, Eloy, Rivero, Z); or known performance concerns (Cabrera, Olt, Ramirez.)

 

I think "average"/"somewhat intriguing" is more negative than my perception. I think there are a number of guys who have the potential to be very good major leaguers. Guaranteed? Of course not. Probable? Of course not. HOF talent? Probably not. But Vizcaino had a really good arm and by account was throwing very hard again. It's no guarantee that any pitcher can come back, stay healthy, and have useful control. But there are plenty of very good big-leaguers who lost some time to surgery once. He could be very, very good. Rivero has a chance to be a very, very good reliever. If Blackburn can stay healthy, he'd seem to have a chance to become very good. Tseng. Zastrysny. Eloy projects to have really good power, perhaps Soler-esque. Seems to me there are still some names here who have a chance to combine both very good big-league talent with excellent big-league skill. Of course we don't know which ones, if any, will work out seriously well. But I think there is definitely some number of ceiling guys left.

[craig]

Does anybody have a really good read on Neil Ramirez's rather roller-coaster career? He's had some inconsistencies.

1. Hickory 09 vs 10. He was very wild year one (5.6 BB/9 in 2009) then reversed (2.4 BB/9 in 2010).

2. 98 innings in 2011. 140 the year before, 123 year following. What kind of injury did he have?

3. 2011-2012: After finishing 2010 in A-, and despite whatever injury he had in 2011, he still rocketed from A+ to AA to AAA in 2011, including a competitive 3.64 ERA with 86K/74IP in AAA. Looked like a man on the rise, at age 22. But then the next year he got demolished in the same AAA level, with 7.66 ERA and a horrendous 15 HR/74 innings. What changed? And then what unchanged last year?

 

I don't know his story well at all.

[davell]

Violent delivery, Texas had tinkered with it a few times. Has had at least two shoulder issues. One a few years ago and one last year. Has had a hard time controlling anything other than his FB for long stretches.

[Guest]

Violent delivery, Texas had tinkered with it a few times. Has had at least two shoulder issues. One a few years ago and one last year. Has had a hard time controlling anything other than his FB for long stretches.

Sounds like a keeper.

[Clem Fandango]

Sounds like Marmol

[davell]

I don't put much hope into him as a starter, but I think he's got a solid shot at being a back end of the pen arm. And having DJ around him isn't going to hurt his chances either. If he can lengthen out his arm action a bit, maybe at the expense of a couple of MPH, who knows? Starting isn't completely off the table for him. At any rate, as a 4th piece in a Garza rental, he was an excellent get. He'll be in my top 20.

[XZero771679666304]

I don't put much hope into him as a starter, but I think he's got a solid shot at being a back end of the pen arm. And having DJ around him isn't going to hurt his chances either. If he can lengthen out his arm action a bit, maybe at the expense of a couple of MPH, who knows? Starting isn't completely off the table for him. At any rate, as a 4th piece in a Garza rental, he was an excellent get. He'll be in my top 20.

 

Absolutely. He was a nice bonus in a trade that was already pretty favorable for the Cubs.

[Bilbo161]

I went Olt, Hendricks, Zastryzny. Could have listed Ramirez Black and Blackburn as well with no real order. Maples started to look interesting last year too once he simplified things by cutting back to just throwing two pitches. Hopefully he can get comfortable and work that change up back into the repetuare(sp?)

[craig]

Violent delivery, Texas had tinkered with it a few times. Has had at least two shoulder issues. One a few years ago and one last year. Has had a hard time controlling anything other than his FB for long stretches.

 

Thanks much, Dave. Inconsistent guy with control problems and two shoulder histories is anything but safe. Still, all those K's don't come just by chance. If the shoulder is sound now and stays sound, he's an interesting wildcard that could be a pleasant surprise. Given the situation at the back of the Cubs rotation, it wouldn't shock to see him fairly quickly.