2014 Bold Predictions Thread

[davell]

Soler went TWO years in between playing organized baseball, then got hurt midway thru his season. To do what he did in 2013, especially playing in a country far away from his home and not knowing the language, I think he had an excellent showing. The plate discipline, with that time off and the general way he was taught back in Cuba, was flat-out remarkable. I have no idea why anyone would be down on him whatsoever.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Soler went TWO years in between playing organized baseball, then got hurt midway thru his season. To do what he did in 2013, especially playing in a country far away from his home and not knowing the language, I think he had an excellent showing. The plate discipline, with that time off and the general way he was taught back in Cuba, was flat-out remarkable. I have no idea why anyone would be down on him whatsoever.

 

See, all that missed development time is a concern for me, not a point in his favor.

[davell]

Soler went TWO years in between playing organized baseball, then got hurt midway thru his season. To do what he did in 2013, especially playing in a country far away from his home and not knowing the language, I think he had an excellent showing. The plate discipline, with that time off and the general way he was taught back in Cuba, was flat-out remarkable. I have no idea why anyone would be down on him whatsoever.

 

See, all that missed development time is a concern for me, not a point in his favor.

 

At his age, I don't see it that way. If he were 25, then I'd probably agree.(let's hope thats not actually the case :D ) Plus, I think his initial showing, even if he had NOT missed that time, was extremely solid and would have put him on top 100 lists and he'd be given a legit shot at being a first division starter, just based off his half season. The potential catch up factor at his age is what gives me hope that he's not only a first divsion starter, but an All Star caliber, middle of the order force.

[davell]

Bold Prediction: We go into next year with four pitchers in the top 100 prospects and two in the top 50.

 

I want names.....

[Warpticon]

Bold Prediction: We go into next year with four pitchers in the top 100 prospects and two in the top 50.

 

I want names.....

 

I'd guess CJ/draft pick in top 50, PJ and one of Zy/Black/Blackburn/Skulina/other draft pick in the last spot.

[craig]

Bold Prediction: We go into next year with four pitchers in the top 100 prospects and two in the top 50.

 

I want names.....

 

I'd guess CJ/draft pick in top 50, PJ and one of Zy/Black/Blackburn/Skulina/other draft pick in the last spot.

 

That is totally plausible. If you draft a pitcher at #4, he's pretty safe to rank top-50, I'd think. Your layout works very well, and doesn't seem that much of a reach at all. Vizcaino's another candidate for top-100, if he ends up healthy and impressive, but the Cubs limit his work and shut him down before he racks up enough big-league service to become ineligible.

[davell]

I'm fishing for a Shark trade.....Honestly though, if I were laying bets, I'll say CJ and PJ will NOT both be top 100 guys at the end of 2014.

 

I can see 4, but it'd be a guy from a Shark deal, the 4th pick, one of CJ or PJ, and one from within the system, out of around 10-15 guys.

[Guest]

Soler struggles and takes a step toward bust-dom.

Is it safe to say he has the lowest floor out of our top 10?

Uhh...no?

I meant the position players in the top 10. Arent Vogelbach and Alcantara more likely MLB regulars than Soler? Maybe I'm irrationally down on him from the 3 televised ABs in the Az fall league.

 

Bold Prediction: Our wealth of 3B prospects becomes a "problem" as Villanueava does well and a fixed Olt returns to top prospect form

 

I just don't see how Vogelbach is more likely to be an MLB regular than Soler.

[craig]

I'm fishing for a Shark trade.....Honestly though, if I were laying bets, I'll say CJ and PJ will NOT both be top 100 guys at the end of 2014.

 

I can see 4, but it'd be a guy from a Shark deal, the 4th pick, one of CJ or PJ, and one from within the system, out of around 10-15 guys.

 

"one of CJ or PJ"

Are you thinking one will get hurt or disappoint to fall off the list? Or that one will pitch so well that he'll graduate and get too much big-league service to remain eligible? I suppose that between the bad and the good option, the odds are pretty significant.

 

Otherwise, that's not especially ambitious. I'm pretty hopeful that both of those guys will stay healthy enough, and impress enough, to NOT fall off the top-100. And I don't really expect either to be early call ups, even if they do perform very well. Essentially your four include only one of CJ/PJ staying interesting, and only one of the 10-15 guys on the farm stepping up significantly.

 

Realistic, perhaps. Maybe that's statistically typical as well. Still, not especially bold or optimistic. If the Cubs procure-and-develop plan is going to be ultimately successful, they're going to need to have better than typical luck/success with some of their prospect development.

[davell]

Craig, I have more confidence in CJ, although I like Pierce quite a bit as well. Just as pitchers, I'd bet on unpredictability, over either, at this stage in their careers.

[Guest]

I'm guessing that:

 

- One of CJ or PJ gets to the majors early enough to lose eligibility. When we do our summer sell off, one of these guys will be busting it enough at AA that he gets the call.

 

- We draft a pitcher at #4. This seems to be the year when the high end talent will be mostly on the mound.

 

- We get two guys step up from the collection of (Zast, Blackburn, Black, Underwood, Skulina, Maples, etc.)

[thefranchise]

Ben Wells jumps into the top 100 after dominating AA.

[davell]

Marco Hernandez ends his Daytona year as a top 20 prospect in that league. Carlos Penalver does the same in Kane Coun

 

Dustin Geiger continues to hit, finally showing up on prospect gurus radar, as a possible second division starter.

 

Dillon Maples is put in the pen and excels, finishing the year in AA. So does Josh Conway, who finishes in Daytona.

[toonsterwu]

Ben Wells jumps into the top 100 after dominating AA.

 

See, anyone that remembers my posts from a couple years ago knows I was huge on Ben Wells (sucker for the frame, action on the fastball, and hoped that a breaking ball would develop) ... but boy ... while there was some promise on the breaking ball back in the day (granted, you could argue that a ton of youngsters have "promise" on their breaking balls at that age, and at that low level), it simply hasn't developed. I hope you are right, though.

 

I think he'll probably get a crack at the rotation in AA (just a hunch, but placing him in the pen seems a bit odd stuff wise... although granted, one of his bigger issues in adjusting as a starter was learning to tamp down his fastball movement, so maybe they let him rip? Still, my guess is that he probably gets a crack at the rotation in AA), but it's sure hard for me to see him dominate unless that breaking ball has taken a significant, significant, significant jump this winter. Here's hoping, though.

[toonsterwu]

I'm guessing that:

 

- One of CJ or PJ gets to the majors early enough to lose eligibility. When we do our summer sell off, one of these guys will be busting it enough at AA that he gets the call.

 

- We draft a pitcher at #4. This seems to be the year when the high end talent will be mostly on the mound.

 

- We get two guys step up from the collection of (Zast, Blackburn, Black, Underwood, Skulina, Maples, etc.)

 

I'm sort of hard-pressed to see either CJ or PJ get the call early enough to lose eligibility. Both guys worked what, 120 innings last year? I doubt they want him to total more than 140-150. Don't get me wrong, I could see them both get called up for a few starts, but I'd be a bit surprised if they lost eligibility. Furthermore, both are significantly more valuable than say, a Jay Jackson or Alberto Cabrera (guys who were starting in the minors and brought up for pen duty, albeit two different circumstances).

 

That said, the idea of 4-5 arms in the top 100 isn't that ridiculous, and two to three in the top 50 isn't that big of a stretch. I'm not huge on Pierce, but I almost think he's been undersold this offseason. If CJ keeps up his performances, he'll keep getting ranked high. Furthermore, if Blackburn can really carry a mid-90's fastball as a starter AND perform, while keeping his "polish"? He's the one guy that I really wonder if he could take a big leap up.

[craig]

Wells had a bad arm two years ago, chose rest/rehab over surgery, and came back last year with a slow fastball. I don't know how rehab and arm healing works. Can some guys who rehab a bad arm come up with ways to strengthen it and recover lost velocity? If so, a guy like Wells (or maybe Loux) might have a shot. But I don't think he'll have much chance with Hendricks-scale velocity.

 

It's a fun and bold prediction and fun thing to imagine having Wells show up with his arm feeling good as new, and faster than ever.

[mul21]

Wells had a bad arm two years ago, chose rest/rehab over surgery, and came back last year with a slow fastball. I don't know how rehab and arm healing works. Can some guys who rehab a bad arm come up with ways to strengthen it and recover lost velocity? If so, a guy like Wells (or maybe Loux) might have a shot. But I don't think he'll have much chance with Hendricks-scale velocity.

 

It's a fun and bold prediction and fun thing to imagine having Wells show up with his arm feeling good as new, and faster than ever.

 

Wainwright had a similar situation when he was with Atlanta. I don't know why these guys choose to try to rehab instead of just getting the fix done to get it over with. You're going to end up having the surgery eventually anyway, might as well get it out of the way.

[craig]

..I'm sort of hard-pressed to see either CJ or PJ get the call early enough to lose eligibility. ...That said, the idea of 4-5 arms in the top 100 isn't that ridiculous, and two to three in the top 50 isn't that big of a stretch. I'm not huge on Pierce, but I almost think he's been undersold this offseason. … Furthermore, if Blackburn can really carry a mid-90's fastball as a starter AND perform, while keeping his "polish"? He's the one guy that I really wonder if he could take a big leap up.

 

Yeah, why not?

 

I think for Johnson, the progress of his cutter will be important for his progress. It's possible that if his cutter can be effective without taking away from either his fastball or breaking ball, that he will have a nice season.

[Guest]

Wells had a bad arm two years ago, chose rest/rehab over surgery, and came back last year with a slow fastball. I don't know how rehab and arm healing works. Can some guys who rehab a bad arm come up with ways to strengthen it and recover lost velocity? If so, a guy like Wells (or maybe Loux) might have a shot. But I don't think he'll have much chance with Hendricks-scale velocity.

 

It's a fun and bold prediction and fun thing to imagine having Wells show up with his arm feeling good as new, and faster than ever.

 

Wainwright had a similar situation when he was with Atlanta. I don't know why these guys choose to try to rehab instead of just getting the fix done to get it over with. You're going to end up having the surgery eventually anyway, might as well get it out of the way.

 

The Mets ended up talking Harvey into getting TJS right?

[Guest]

I'm guessing that:

 

- One of CJ or PJ gets to the majors early enough to lose eligibility. When we do our summer sell off, one of these guys will be busting it enough at AA that he gets the call.

 

- We draft a pitcher at #4. This seems to be the year when the high end talent will be mostly on the mound.

 

- We get two guys step up from the collection of (Zast, Blackburn, Black, Underwood, Skulina, Maples, etc.)

 

And all of a sudden, pitching is a strength (although still not as strong as the hitting, unless both Bryant and Baez graduate or something really crappy happens like a complete flame out for one or two of the big 4).

[Clem Fandango]

Gioskar Amaya will emerge as a Top 10 talent in the system by year's end.

[toonsterwu]

craig, I could be wrong on this, but I'm fairly certain that Wells velocity was fine last year, at least, earlier in the season when I was paying more attention. I'm under the impression that it was around 89-93 for his 2-seamer. In Boise, he used to top out a bit higher on the 2-seamer (granted, usual caveats about minor league guns, angles, etceteras), which was why I was so fascinated (granted, I recall being very fascinated even when we drafted him, but the Boise reports were really exciting in that, it suggested a true power sinker and there were positive reports on his breaking ball and change-up), but I vaguely recall that there was a concerted effort to try and get him to get more command of his stuff, and that he was asked to pitch at a lower velocity to get more command.

 

Could be wrong, been awhile.

[davell]

I thought I remembered seeing reports Wells was working in the upper 80's last year.

[craig]

I thought I remembered seeing reports Wells was working in the upper 80's last year.

 

That's my recall as well.

[toonsterwu]

A quick internet search right now only gets me some tweet early last year about Ben Wells around 88-91mph, which is relatively close to what I had in my mind yesterday (89-93). I'm almost certain that he topped out around 92/93 at times last year, at least around summer.

 

Anyhow, I actually hope you guys are right, because that gives a bit more hope to Wells (if injury did hamper him ... ). At the end of the day, how his breaking ball develops will determine if he can make it as a starter.