The 2014 Bullpen

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Next year's pen is going to be really interesting, as there's a ton of legitimate candidates relative to recent years. I wrote way too many words in the below post as a starting point, feel free to chime in with your favorite candidates or how you see the pen shaking out.

 

 

LOCKS

 

Pedro Strop - RH

2013 (Orioles) - 22.1 IP, 7.25/5.51/4.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 9.7/6.0/1.6 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 35 IP, 2.83/2.31/2.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.8/2.8/0.3 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 1st year arb eligible, zero options left

Repertoire: Fastball (95.8 mph), Slider (82.7)

 

Strop has the most unhittable pitch in the game, and he was dominant in a Cub uniform with it. With only 35 great IP last year and a history of control problems one worries that Strop reverts back to his pre-trade form, but he's a cinch to start the year in a late inning role.

 

Blake Parker - RH

2013 (AAA) - 17.1 IP, 2.04/2.86 ERA/FIP, 13.3/5.1/0.5 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 46.1 IP, 2.72/2.90/3.54 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.7/2.9/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 2nd year renewal, two options left

Repertoire: Fastball (91.9 mph), Slider (78.4)

 

Parker's long been a favorite of mine for his MiLB K rates, and he finally showed that at the MLB level this year. He too has had his problems with command that could re-surface, but he's currently the set-up man and it would take a complete breakdown in ST for him to miss the Opening Day roster.

 

James Russell - LH

2013 (Cubs) - 52.2 IP, 3.59/4.45/4.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.3/3.1/1.2 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 2nd year arb eligible, three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (89.1 mph), Slider (81.5), Change (80.9), Cutter (87.6)

 

Some might not think of Russell as a lock, and while I think it's far from certain he's in a Cub uniform next year, I'd be very surprised if he was in Iowa come April. After a breakout 2012 that not only solidified him as a reliever but one that could get out LH and RH(thanks to his new cutter), 2013 wasn't so great. Always a fly ball pitcher, he didn't miss enough barrels(especially against RH) and gave up a ton of HR(especially against RH). While 2013 put to rest the idea of Russell as a 8th or 9th inning mainstay, he's still quite good against lefties, and that should be his primary purpose in the 2014 pen.

 

 

ROTATION HOPEFULS

 

Jake Arrieta - RH

2013 (Orioles) - 23.2 IP, 7.23/4.61/4.84 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 8.9/6.5/0.7 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 51.2 IP, 3.66/4.94/4.51 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.5/4.2/1.2 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 3rd year renewal, one option left

Repertoire: Fastball (93.9 mph), Curve (80.4), Slider (89.0)

 

Arrieta was effective enough and showed enough promise for people to dream on his stuff translating more at age 28 with a full year of Bosio's tutelage. However, even isolating his Cubs performance it's not great peripherally, and one can't help but dream on his very good stuff making for a great reliever in short stints. I would guess the Cubs give Arrieta more chance to fail as a starter first, especially with Shark likely to be dealt there will likely be room for him in the rotation.

 

 

Carlos Villanueva - RH

2013 (Cubs) - 52.2 IP, 4.06/3.86/3.97 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 7.2/2.8/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - Last year of FA deal, zero options left

Repertoire: Fastball (87.7 mph), Change (80.2), Slider (82.1), Curve (74.0)

 

Villanueva was the odd man out of the rotation when Garza came back, and then struggled to make it back into the rotation while different guys with more team control got looks. Villanueva's diverse repertoire doesn't inherently lend itself to a relief role, but he was much better peripherally in relief, good enough that he'd be capable in a later innings role.

 

Depending on your opinion of the options at hand, Villanueva is either barely holding onto a rotation spot or is the swingman in the pen. That swingman role is perfect for him, but his 5 million salary might prove a little too rich for that lower leverage position, which could make him a trade target given his contract and 2013 success.

 

 

Chris Rusin - LH

2013 (AAA) - 121 IP, 3.35/3.66 ERA/FIP, 5.1/2.0/0.6 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 66.1 IP, 3.93/4.75/4.46 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 4.9/3.2/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 1st year renewal, two options left

Repertoire: Fastball (87.8 mph), Cutter (84.5), Changeup (78.8)

 

Rusin had a very strong string of effectiveness as a starter broken by two disaster starts at the end of the year, raising his ERA a full run and his OPS against by 50 points. If you believe in Rusin you'll see that MLB success(along with steady MiLB numbers) combined with more Bosio inflence(cutters for all!) and see a poor man's Travis Wood. Detractors will see a very stark platoon split, lack of dynamite stuff, and see a reliever.

 

I personally see the latter and a good LOOGY to add to Russell in the pen, but so little is certain for next year's rotation that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him getting rotation innings, if only as a placeholder until a better prospect is seasoned.

 

Justin Grimm - RH

2013 (Rangers) - 89 IP, 6.37/4.79/4.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.9/3.1/1.5 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (AAA) - 42 IP, 4.68/2.77/ ERA/FIP, 8.7/3.6/0.2 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 1st year renewal, two options left

Repertoire: Fastball (91.6 mph), Curve (77.8), Changeup (82.8)

 

Grimm is a bit of a forgotten man, and if you ask me one of the most likely candidates to surprise next year. 2013 for him would best be summed up as terrible superficially and decent peripherally. While his repertoire and performance gives off a bit of a "low ceiling finished product" vibe, it's easy to forget he was only drafted in 2010, and some evaluators felt he needed more AAA time to refine his pitches.

 

Grimm logically fits into the same role that Villanueva is slated for currently. With Villanueva on board, more left to learn, and options in the bank, he's also a logical fit for Iowa to start the year. What will be interesting to see is if Villanueva is traded or becomes a clear rotation piece, if they exercise that patience and give Grimm more time in Iowa, or if they ask him to step into his likely future role right away.

 

Kyle Hendricks - RH

2013 (AA) - 126.1 IP, 1.85/2.65/ ERA/FIP, 7.2/1.9/0.2 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (AAA) - 40 IP, 2.48/3.18/ ERA/FIP, 6.1/1.8/0.5 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 1st year renewal, three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (~89 mph), Curve, Cutter, Changeup

 

Hendricks is light on stuff and heavy on command, K'ing enough guys and preventing enough HR to be interesting with his miniscule walk rate. With just 40 IP in AAA and no 40 man spot, he seems very likely to return to Iowa, but with the rotation in flux he could stake a claim in ST. If the FO is bearish on his future he could also snag a long relief role in the pen before long.

 

THE REST

 

Hector Rondon - RH

2013 (Cubs) - 54.2 IP, 4.77/4.40/4.42 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 7.2/4.1/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 2nd year renewal, one option left

Repertoire: Fastball (93.8 mph), Slider (80.7), Cutter (91.1)

 

Rondon's 2013 was very much a tale of two halves. To wit:

 

Thru June: 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, .816 OPS, 21/12 K/BB

After June: 28 IP, 3.54 ERA, .659 OPS, 23/13 K/BB

 

The biggest driver in that improvement was his fastball velocity, which hovered in the low 90s in April and May but was sitting north of 95 by year end.

 

While Rondon could get AAA time if they were interested in him being a starter, I say if the velocity is still there in February then there's no reason for him not to be a middle relief mainstay this year. Rondon had an extreme reverse platoon split in 2013(.908 OPS v. RH, .546 v. LH), so there's likely even more room to grow from his in-season improvement if he can be more effective with the slider(-3 runs in 2013, -1.9 total).

 

Kyuji Fujikawa - RH

2013 (Cubs) - 12 IP, 5.25/2.80/2.85 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.5/1.5/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9

Contract - 2nd year of FA deal (2015 team option), three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (92.3 mph), Slider (83.6), Cutter (89.8)

 

While the enduring memory of Fujikawa's 2013 is a few high-profile blowups prior to his TJS, he was actually very solid peripherally in his very brief stint. It's difficult to draw many conclusions from his performance, but considering his TJS was relatively early last year(early June), one would hope with a successful rehab that he'd be a factor in middle relief in the 2nd half. He should be motivated to establish himself, as the odds of his 5.5 million option getting picked up are slim and he'll be working for his next(last?) deal.

 

Arodys Vizcaino - RH

2013 - Did not pitch

Contract - 3rd year renewal, three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (95.9 mph), Curve (81.7)

 

Vizcaino was always more likely than the average top prospect to end up a bullpen arm due to his lack of size and 3rd pitch, and his complications in returning from TJS are another data point pushing him towards the pen. It's worth remembering, especially since to most fans Vizcaino has always been just words on a page, that his stuff pre-TJS was as good as it gets, and early returns post-surgery are that he's maintained that stuff.

 

Projecting a guy who hasn't thrown a meaningful inning in nearly 2 years is a fool's errand, but if the FO sees him as a reliever like I do, then Vizcaino's performance will determine his readiness. He and his triple digit fastball will be a late inning relief candidate once healthy, when(if?) ever that is.

 

Chang-Yong Lim - RH

2013 (AAA) - 11.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 12/4 K/BB

2013 (Cubs) - 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 5/7 K/BB

Contract - 1st year renewal*, three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (89.9 mph), Slider (78.1)

 

Yet another TJS rehab guy, Lim finally made some real appearances in the second half. If his control can come around with 6 more months since his surgery, then he should be in the mix for middle relief from the right side.

 

* I recall some details about Lim having an option for several million this year, and the implication that he could soon be an FA with it. Since no one else has really mentioned that as a possibility, I'm assuming I'm crazy and he'll make the minimum with 6 years of team control still to go.

 

 

Zac Rosscup - LH

2013 (AA) - 43.1 IP, 2.49/2.07 ERA/FIP, 13.7/4.0/0.4 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 7/7 K/BB

Contract - 1st year renewal, three options left

Repertoire: Fastball (92.5 mph), Slider (82.8)

 

After striking out everyone in sight at AA for most of the season, Rosscup barely got the chance to do the same at AAA(7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 17/6 K/BB) before becoming a September callup. Like with most relievers he's flirted with walk trouble, but the obscene K rates paper over a lot of ills. No one hit Rosscup all that well last year, but his MLB role is likely a LOOGY unless he taps into the Bosio cutter magic. Russell's status and the FO's opinion of Rusin will determine whether he starts in Iowa or with the big league team.

 

Alberto Cabrera - RH

2013 (AA) - 112.2 IP, 3.20/3.63 ERA/FIP, 8.55/3.1/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9

2013 (Cubs) - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 4/5 K/BB

Contract - 1st year renewal, zero options left

Repertoire: Fastball (92.9 mph), Slider (82.9)

 

Cabrera is a fastball/slider guy who has seen his stuff play up in relief(105 K in 82.1 IP at AA/AAA/MLB) but hasn't been able to develop a 3rd pitch to stick as a starter. Now out of options, I'm not sure he's shown enough to even get the benefit of the doubt when competing for a middle relief role. My best guess is he ends up in another organization and becomes one that got away if another team can help him be a little less hittable.

 

OTHER NAMES OF NOTE

 

Brooks Raley - LH - He's got a 40 man spot, and therefore an outside shot if injury/roster movements jump him up the list of LH bullpen options, but with the 40 man full this early in the offseason, he's a prime candidate to be DFA'd himself.

 

Neil Ramirez - RH - Another name from the Garza deal that's gotten a bit lost in the shuffle, Ramirez has big stuff if he can stay healthy. He was very good in his brief Cub debut and by having a 40 man spot would be a prime candidate to be an injury fill in if he starts 2014 well.

 

Daniel Bard - RH - Has the stuff and past history to dream of being a very good reliever again, but he's gone full Ankiel at this point. With his contract situation he's a near cinch to be non-tendered, and if he's still with the team come ST has an uphill climb to claim a spot.

 

Dallas Beeler - RH - The FO thinks enough of him to put him on the 40 man roster, but I doubt he fits into any bullpen discussion in 2014 unless many things go wrong and he takes a big step forward.

 

Armando Rivero - RH - The Cuban is a dark horse for next year's pen. Definitely showed the stuff(13.4 K/9) and is of the age where he should be approaching MLB readiness. On the other hand, his unremarkable control and hit prevention at AA and lower combined with his lack of a 40 man spot make him pretty easy to start next year at Tennessee or Iowa, where he may or may not force his way into consideration.

 

Free Agents - There's been rumblings that the team may want to add a reliever, maybe even a "closer" to hedge against the risk of relying on Strop and Parker so heavily. I've seen Tim Stauffer and Edward Mujica's name mentioned, although if the payroll is falling at all relative to last year, it seems unlikely that they would commit a decent percentage of the spending money to a pen arm.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Awesome stuff.

 

I still think that if you give Rusin the benefit of the stuff-boost that most pitchers get from going to the pen, he basically just becomes a cheaper version of Russell. Maybe even better. And I wonder if Rosscup might not be better than both of them. If anyone wanted to give us anything of comparable value for Russell, I think I'd take it at this point.

 

I'm going to be so annoyed if all this doesn't turn into a decent pen for 2014. There's just so much interesting there that wasn't there a year ago, when I was trying to convince myself that Michael Bowden could be useful.

[Guest]

I think a lot of Russell's problems last year were do to misuse.

 

That's all I have.

[davell]

Strop has struggled with command and I figure we'll see some of that moving forward. I'm a tad iffy on Parker being a longterm piece, although its not truly founded on my part. He SHOULD be able to hold his own in a middle relief role moving forward anyway. Russell is just a guy, but decent enough, especially if we don't overuse him. Villanueva is a nice piece to have, gives us plenty of options, with his versatility. Rusin seems like a better bet as the 2nd lefty than Raley or Rosscup to me, but I can also see him as the 6th SP, maybe 5th, if Arrieta shits the bed and winds up in the pen. But I think he'll start myself.

 

Rondon and Grimm are the 2 guys I'm irrationally excited about. Hell, I could see him winding up as our closer by the middle of the year. If his velo holds, I'm honestly thinking he's our best RP in 2014. Grimm also pitched at 94-95 out of the pen, up from 90-92 as a SP. Definitely looked the part of a set up guy in September to me.

 

Perfunctory mention of Rivero-AFL wasn't special, but I could see him earning a 40 man spot and slot in the pen during ST. Vizcaino? I think they'll be extremely cautious with him and think we'll see him in Iowa most of the year.

 

If we keep Rusin starting, I can see us giving Howell a 2 year deal. The Mujica rumor makes a bit of sense, but I think we try and create a closer instead of buying one, in the end.

 

But I agree, it's very interesting and could very well become a strong suit very quickly.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Seriously, if the bullpen can't be decent with that many interesting arms I'm going to start believing in goat curses.

[Guest]

@MDGonzales Vizcaino throwing 98 mph, stuff "electric", Theo epstein says

 

@sahadevsharma Theo says Hendricks won't break camp with the team. Says he still has some development to complete at Triple-A.

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: Theo says Vizcaino made about half a dozen appearances at instructs. Stuff was electric & command was strong as well.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Strop, Wright, Russell, Parker, Vizcaino would be super intriguing.

[USSoccer]

Isn't there too much variance from year to year to draw any conclusions about what the assembled group will end up being?

[Guest]

Isn't there too much variance from year to year to draw any conclusions about what the assembled group will end up being?

 

You mean on opening day, or who the actual good relievers will be? For the former, bullpens are variable, but they aren't that variable. For the latter, the same still applies, but the Cubs' assets are unproven enough that the pecking order could be very different in June but still have most of the same players.

[USSoccer]

Isn't there too much variance from year to year to draw any conclusions about what the assembled group will end up being?

 

You mean on opening day, or who the actual good relievers will be? For the former, bullpens are variable, but they aren't that variable. For the latter, the same still applies, but the Cubs' assets are unproven enough that the pecking order could be very different in June but still have most of the same players.

 

The latter.

[Tryptamine]

Strop, Wright, Russell, Parker, Vizcaino would be super intriguing.

 

No Rosscup?

[Gilby]

Strop, Wright, Russell, Parker, Vizcaino would be super intriguing.

 

No Rosscup?

 

I don't think Rosscup is any good. I just do not trust his control. Raley, on the other hand, I think can be a darn good LOOGY. I don't know about Rusin as a reliever; might be better off keeping him as a 7th-8th starter in Iowa and I'm not sure his stuff is suited to strike out lefties well.

[Tryptamine]

Strop, Wright, Russell, Parker, Vizcaino would be super intriguing.

 

No Rosscup?

 

I don't think Rosscup is any good. I just do not trust his control. Raley, on the other hand, I think can be a darn good LOOGY. I don't know about Rusin as a reliever; might be better off keeping him as a 7th-8th starter in Iowa and I'm not sure his stuff is suited to strike out lefties well.

 

I'm intrigued, what makes you say Rosscup isn't any good? 14.65K/9 6.35H/9 give the impression otherwise unless you think he's getting by completely on a gimmicky deception type style like Jon Gaub used to. The walks are definitely high, but even so with his otherworldly K/9 it's not a death sentence.

[Gilby]

Strop, Wright, Russell, Parker, Vizcaino would be super intriguing.

 

No Rosscup?

 

I don't think Rosscup is any good. I just do not trust his control. Raley, on the other hand, I think can be a darn good LOOGY. I don't know about Rusin as a reliever; might be better off keeping him as a 7th-8th starter in Iowa and I'm not sure his stuff is suited to strike out lefties well.

 

I'm intrigued, what makes you say Rosscup isn't any good? 14.65K/9 6.35H/9 give the impression otherwise unless you think he's getting by completely on a gimmicky deception type style like Jon Gaub used to. The walks are definitely high, but even so with his otherworldly K/9 it's not a death sentence.

 

For me, it's the walks. He's nearing 6BB/9 in his career between Double-A, Triple-A, and the MLB. I can see him being above average at striking guys out based on his minor league numbers and deception, but his stuff isn't amazing, so I'll believe he'll have an otherworldly K/9 in the majors when I see it.

 

Compare that to Raley, who, in admittedly a small sample in the bigs last year (25 lefties faced in 2013), had a 32% K rate and a 8% BB rate vs LHH. He had success with the slider which is a good pitch against a batter with the same handedness.

 

Wright will obviously be on the roster, and Russell will be if he's not traded, though I think most expect him to be moved. If we're going with a 2nd lefty, I'd put Raley in over Rosscup.

[Guest]

I think that's overstating the problem a bit.

 

Rosscup didn't pitch until July in 2012 because of injury, and his control clearly was the last thing to come back. If you look at his game log from 2012 there's a pretty fine line where he seems to start getting his control back(it also happens to coincide with him not throwing 2-3 IP at once).

 

He built on that and this past year was way too much for Tennessee. In twice the sample size he halved that walk rate while increasing his K rate from "phenomenal" to "vintage Marmol". He walked too many guys in brief cameos in Iowa and MLB, but I think the far more indicative sample is what he did at AA this year.

 

That said, Rosscup is always going to be a guy for whom control is a struggle. But his strikeout, hit, and HR rates are so obscene that it's well worth the tradeoff. I'd much rather gamble that Rosscup is able to throw strikes than bet on Raley's stuff playing up enough not to be hittable in relief.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm really starting to think we might have something in this bullpen. The difference between last year's pen and the 10th-best in MLB last year by net WPA was eight wins.

[Guest]

I'm really starting to think we might have something in this bullpen. The difference between last year's pen and the 10th-best in MLB last year by net WPA was eight wins.

 

2008 rays status, here we come

 

Javy is our Longoria

[Guest]

Add Veras to the mix now too.

[Backtobanks]

The bullpen is looking good now, but the question is how many of them will still be here after the trade deadline.

[Guest]

The bullpen is looking good now, but the question is how many of them will still be here after the trade deadline.

If only I had the power to make posts like this go away...

[davell]

The bullpen is looking good now, but the question is how many of them will still be here after the trade deadline.

If only I had the power to make posts like this go away...

The funny thing is, it actually brings to light just how deep our pen is. If Vera's and Russell are sent packing mid season, we'll have Fujikawa coming back, along with Rusin, Raley, Rosscup, Wada, and a bunch of RHP to replace Russell. The pen can withstand some injuries AND a trade or two, in my opinion. The upside is there and the depth is great.

[Guest]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

[Guest]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

[Guest]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

Interesting albeit unscientific.