Offseason Rumors

[HoopsCubs]

There's more than a couple obvious and important differences in the approach to next year's offseason regardless of how this offseason gets handled, but there's also a razor's edge between perpetual selling since most acquired assets aren't around for 4-5 years.

 

If the payroll is going to be that 85 million dollar figure like Arguello so clumsily backed into, then since there's very little hope for 2014, you make 2015 as good as you can while not stripping the team for parts. Add a RH OF(there's a bunch potentially out there) and play your best 3 each day along with Sweeney, Lake, and Schierholtz. Use most of your available funds on SP(Ubaldo and a buy-low/injury guy like Johnson, Kazmir, Anderson, even Porcello might work), and then treat Samardzija like you did Garza the last 24 months. If anything Price's market should help adjust Shark's upward, and getting a premium SP prospect close to MLB has to happen if you deal him. Trade Barney, Villanueva, and/or Schierholtz as needed for payroll relief.

 

If the payroll is going to stay flat to last year at around 100 million, that gives you the flexibility to make 2014 more bearable and put less weight on the upcoming wave of prospects. You can do things like sign mutliple 8 figure FAs(Ubaldo + Salty + Castillo for impact SP or OF?) and maybe get some more permanent solutions than Schierholtz and Sweeney in the OF(maybe even Ellsbury if you believe in the current SP options).

 

In any case, "the Cubs don't care about 2014" might be true to an extent directionally, but that's certainly not the directive you want the FO to go to the offseason with. "Flippable assets" is a relatively pointless goal since there are 1) few holes for stopgaps to fill currently and 2) several flippable commodities already on the roster if they want to go down that road. Make 2014 better and don't make 2015 worse, that's the credo they need.

 

TT-I believe the payroll will be under 90M in 2014. I also think they will have more than just a "few holes" if they end up dealing Schierholtz, Barney, etc... - that was my thought when I raised the point of flippable assets. That's just my opinion. But I do know that the FO is laser focused on acquiring pitching.

[UMFan83]

Things happen....Castro, Rizzo and Shark all under performed. The Wrigley renovations stalled and won't really get started until after next year at the earliest. I think many people when 2012 was going sour accepted that this was probably a 3 year dead period before we should expect to see results. A lot of people speculated that we could contend in 2014, but that was if a lot of things went right. Well, some things went right (development of the position prospects) but a lot went wrong. You can argue whether each of the things that went wrong was Theo's fault or not, but regardless, the plan (IMO) was always suck their way through 2012, 2013, 2014, and in 2015 you have money coming in post-rennovations and WGN deal, the first wave of top prospects would be coming through, the "core" pieces acquired before or during 2012 hitting their stride, etc. Of course after 2012 and 2013 there would be a re-evaluation if the Cubs made enough progress but so far it hasn't happened.

[HoopsCubs]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

Yeah, this is the part of the post I didn't agree with. I think it would be just as easy to say the Darvish experience is fresh in his mind. The Cubs missed out on a young rotation cornerstone by not being aggressive enough in the bidding.

 

They currently don't have the financial wherewithal that everyone seems to think they should. When you have a long term view, you make long term decisions, and most of the short term is just considered noise. Having been part of a re-building process 10 years ago, and one that I'm in now, I see plenty of parallels.

[Guest]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

Yeah, this is the part of the post I didn't agree with. I think it would be just as easy to say the Darvish experience is fresh in his mind. The Cubs missed out on a young rotation cornerstone by not being aggressive enough in the bidding.

 

They currently don't have the financial wherewithal that everyone seems to think they should. When you have a long term view, you make long term decisions, and most of the short term is just considered noise. Having been part of a re-building process 10 years ago, and one that I'm in now, I see plenty of parallels.

I understand (and reluctantly agree) that the front office may not have the resources required to put in a winning bid for Tanaka this offseason. However, I don't think Daisuke will have anything to do with the thought process.

[Guest]

As for the discussion on when we thought contention would happen...I know I bought the whole "dual fronts" story hook, line and sinker. I thought payroll would stick around the $140M level and they'd be able to invest in the big ticket items while also building the minor league talent base.

 

Oops.

[davell]

With where we're at currently, obviously the playoffs in 2014 seems a longshot, at the most optimistic. From the "if you ain't first, you're last" sentiment, I'd be fine with finishing dead last, from that perspective if not for what that'd unfortunately show.....

 

It'd mean Castro, Rizzo, and whichever "core" major leaguers we've got around them, have sucked. It would also likely mean that Javy, KB, Alcantara, and anyone else that we hope make it to the bigs have struggled in their initial run-through. With this, it'd also mean ANOTHER loss of attendance, which means less budget AGAIN.

 

These factors definitely have placed me firmly into wanting at least an average 2014 ML team. The fan backlash of sucking again is going to really become apparent quick, when we open 2015 with a 70 mill, bottom 5 type payroll, if we lose 95 again in 2014.

 

If you can't add the big ticket guys this offseason and no trade makes complete sense, then a few decent players not on flippable contracts, need to be added. Edwin Jackson types from last offseason-Guys that can fill a need for us once we are good.

[HoopsCubs]

"I understand (and reluctantly agree) that the front office may not have the resources required to put in a winning bid for Tanaka this offseason. However, I don't think Daisuke will have anything to do with the thought process."

 

When you're talking about potentially spending $140M ($70M to acquire rights and $70M contract for 5 years), how do you not think about the $103M investment you made 7 years ago on a 26 year old, who ended up starting 61 games in his first 2 seasons and 55 in his last 4? All I'm saying is that it's my belief that this will come into play.

[Guest]

"I understand (and reluctantly agree) that the front office may not have the resources required to put in a winning bid for Tanaka this offseason. However, I don't think Daisuke will have anything to do with the thought process."

 

When you're talking about potentially spending $140M ($70M to acquire rights and $70M contract for 5 years), how do you not think about the $103M investment you made 7 years ago on a 26 yeard old, who ended up starting 61 games in his first 2 seasons and 55 in his last 4? All I'm saying is that it's my belief that this will come into play.

I don't think Daisuke would be any more on their mind than any other data point. I have confidence that these guys are analytical enough to look at the success of that kind of investment in pitchers in general and Japanese pitchers making the conversion in particular. I think the recent successes of Darvish and Iwakuma would be as relevant to them as Daisuke.

[SouthSideRyan]

"I understand (and reluctantly agree) that the front office may not have the resources required to put in a winning bid for Tanaka this offseason. However, I don't think Daisuke will have anything to do with the thought process."

 

When you're talking about potentially spending $140M ($70M to acquire rights and $70M contract for 5 years), how do you not think about the $103M investment you made 7 years ago on a 26 year old, who ended up starting 61 games in his first 2 seasons and 55 in his last 4? All I'm saying is that it's my belief that this will come into play.

 

Because hopefully Theo isn't stupid.

[gscool89]

RT @Buster_ESPN: There is an expectation that the Jeff Samardzija/Arizona trade talks will continue. Cubs reaching point where they need a decision on him.

 

Archieeeeeeeeeee

[davell]

Towers is on record saying Theo is the smartest guy he's ever met and is afraid to trade with him, even though they're good friends. This tells me Arizona likely just helps set the price for someone else, if we decide to deal him.

[Clem Fandango]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

[UMFan83]

Towers is on record saying Theo is the smartest guy he's ever met and is afraid to trade with him, even though they're good friends. This tells me Arizona likely just helps set the price for someone else, if we decide to deal him.

 

I see 8 trades made between Towers and Theo, but only 1 was of any consequence, the Dave Roberts trade in 2004 during Theo's second year as GM.

[NOLA]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

This is why Vogelbach tweeted he was going to Arizona. It all makes sense now.

[Clem Fandango]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

This is why Vogelbach tweeted he was going to Arizona. It all makes sense now.

 

It does kind of suck that the D-Backs do kind of have an offense built to compete so we couldn't really throw them anyone that they need. My first inclination was to include Barney along with them since they love that scrappy gritty nonsense, but they already got Aaron Hill/Didi Gregorius. Then I thought Junior Lake, but they already got Eaton, Pollock, and Parra. Then I thought Castillo, but they got Montero. Vogelbach? Goldschmidt. Olt? Prado.

 

Honestly I would try and see if they'd do Samardzija and Lake for Skaggs and Parra.

[Post Count Padder]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

This is why Vogelbach tweeted he was going to Arizona. It all makes sense now.

 

It does kind of suck that the D-Backs do kind of have an offense built to compete so we couldn't really throw them anyone that they need. My first inclination was to include Barney along with them since they love that scrappy gritty nonsense, but they already got Aaron Hill/Didi Gregorius. Then I thought Junior Lake, but they already got Eaton, Pollock, and Parra. Then I thought Castillo, but they got Montero. Vogelbach? Goldschmidt. Olt? Prado.

 

Honestly I would try and see if they'd do Samardzija and Lake for Skaggs and Parra.

I've thought about us asking for Parra in a trade. He's a decent hitter and a tremendous fielder and they have a glut of outfielders at or near the majors.

[Clem Fandango]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

This is why Vogelbach tweeted he was going to Arizona. It all makes sense now.

 

It does kind of suck that the D-Backs do kind of have an offense built to compete so we couldn't really throw them anyone that they need. My first inclination was to include Barney along with them since they love that scrappy gritty nonsense, but they already got Aaron Hill/Didi Gregorius. Then I thought Junior Lake, but they already got Eaton, Pollock, and Parra. Then I thought Castillo, but they got Montero. Vogelbach? Goldschmidt. Olt? Prado.

 

Honestly I would try and see if they'd do Samardzija and Lake for Skaggs and Parra.

I've thought about us asking for Parra in a trade. He's a decent hitter and a tremendous fielder and they have a glut of outfielders at or near the majors.

 

They really do. Just in case people didn't notice, Parra put up a 6.1 rWAR this year (4.6 fWAR) that was mostly a result of elite defense (4.0 dWAR)

[Guest]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

[Clem Fandango]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

 

I wouldn't mind McCarthy, either. Bradley + Eaton would make me reach giggling-little-girl level happy.

[seanimal]

"this post will be even better when you make it again a year from now, explaining how we can't bother being good in 2015 because we only won 67 games in 2014"

 

Actually, I won't be making that post a year from now for 2 reasons:

 

(1) I'm not assessing Theo until we get through mid 2015.

(2) I'm not expecting a linear turn-around. What I mean by that is I don't think the Cubs have to win 67, then 77, then 87 and finally 92. I think the 67 to 92 will happen in one season.

 

well, to the first point, that's an awful lot of leash. i get it, and i (mostly) agree, but it's incredibly generous. i will be really nervous if we head into the 14/15 offseason without significant hope for a very competitive team in 2015

 

which brings us to the second point; not all 67-win seasons are created equal, so we'll see if this year's is the kind that feels like it went the right way or if it feels like yet another season of reset expectations

[imb]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

 

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for just Samardzija? I don't know how to tell you this buddy ...

[Clem Fandango]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

 

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for just Samardzija? I don't know how to tell you this buddy ...

 

I think the "or" was a segway to a 2nd offer, not a decision between Holmberg or Bradley.

 

Still, Bradley is now the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. He's what Dylan Bundy was last year before his injury, and Samardzija would not have gotten anywhere near Dylan Bundy. That's not to say Bradley couldn't be had, but Samardzija just isn't the level of pitcher that warrants him in a deal without also giving up other somewhat significant players

Edited November 5, 2013 by The Logan

[davell]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

 

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for just Samardzija? I don't know how to tell you this buddy ...

 

I read it as Skaggs/Holmberg as one deal, Bradley/Eaton as a different one.

[davell]

I think I'd prefer Skaggs AND Delgado to Bradley by himself.

[Guest]

As cool as it would be to get Archie Bradley, Samardzija just isn't enough. Skaggs I could see, but not Bradley.

 

Well, in the sense that Kevin Towers is a crazy person and might ask for Samardzija and Castro in order to get Bradley, yes. In terms of actual value, Samardzija is more than enough.

 

In fact, if we're trying to come up with packages, something like Skaggs + Holmberg or Bradley + Eaton would be a decent approximation. If they wanted to give away McCarthy's salary as a 3rd piece I'd be agreeable to that too.

 

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for just Samardzija? I don't know how to tell you this buddy ...

 

I read it as Skaggs/Holmberg as one deal, Bradley/Eaton as a different one.

 

Correct. Sorry, that wasn't formatted well.