Plan the Offseason

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ellsbury, Price and Stanton would probably get you to the fWAR projection needed for contention.

[sneakypower]

i'll lose my [expletive] if we sign Salty

 

You're the one saying that Castillo would have to be the lead piece for Stanton, right? What if Giancarlo were coming with Salty?

it goes without saying i'd be on cloud nine if those circumstances actually played out, but the point i was making was that i don't see much point at all - with our limited payroll - to be selling on Castillo unless it's a 'make us an offer we can't refuse' situation like Giancarlo

 

but that isn't to say i have any delusions the Marlins will actually scout him as a key piece in Stanton talks, either

 

Ellsbury, Price and Stanton would probably get you to the fWAR projection needed for contention.

speaking of Price...

• "One assistant GM proposes that the Rays could trade David Price to the Dodgers for Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Julio Urias and Chris Withrow, Peter Gammons writes"

 

here, "One assistant GM" certainly means RJ Harrison

[Guest]

i'll lose my [expletive] if we sign Salty

 

You're the one saying that Castillo would have to be the lead piece for Stanton, right? What if Giancarlo were coming with Salty?

it goes without saying i'd be on cloud nine if those circumstances actually played out, but the point i was making was that i don't see much point at all - with our limited payroll - to be selling on Castillo unless it's a 'make us an offer we can't refuse' situation like Giancarlo

 

but that isn't to say i have any delusions the Marlins will actually scout him as a key piece in Stanton talks, either

 

Sure, it's not terribly likely, but it's only reasonable that Castillo and his hefty trade value get moved after such a signing, so there's additional benefits to consider. Like I've said before, it's not my preferred option, but if it gets to mid-December and it looks like the QO is suppressing Salty's value to the point where it makes sense, I could see it happening if there's a trade target in mind to send Castillo for(Stanton? Sale? Scherzer w/ extension?)

[TheDude]

Ellsbury, Price and Stanton would probably get you to the fWAR projection needed for contention.

Contention maybe, but not making the cut even for the final wild card. That's not enough. You need the existing roster to make cumulative gains still to the tune of at least 5 more Wins over the previous listings, probably more. Especially in the current division if you're strictly talking 2014.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ellsbury, Price and Stanton would probably get you to the fWAR projection needed for contention.

Contention maybe, but not making the cut even for the final wild card. That's not enough. You need the existing roster to make cumulative gains still to the tune of at least 5 more Wins over the previous listings, probably more. Especially in the current division if you're strictly talking 2014.

 

BPro was off by 10 or more games for 12 out of 30 teams in their projections this past season. Not trying because projections only put you at 85 wins ensures nothing but continued minor league forum activity.

[Guest]

Ellsbury, Price and Stanton would probably get you to the fWAR projection needed for contention.

Contention maybe, but not making the cut even for the final wild card. That's not enough. You need the existing roster to make cumulative gains still to the tune of at least 5 more Wins over the previous listings, probably more. Especially in the current division if you're strictly talking 2014.

 

BPro was off by 10 or more games for 12 out of 30 teams in their projections this past season. Not trying because projections only put you at 85 wins ensures nothing but continued minor league forum activity.

 

They're heavily regressed too, Fangraphs' ZiPS+Steamers estimates had 1 team winning more than 90 games, and no NL team winning more than 88. If you're a mid 80s projection after the offseason, you're a serious playoff contender.

[rawaction]

I don't know why but I'm a big fan of Kazmir. Well I know why. I think he's due for a couple 3 win seasons. A Ted Lilly/Travis Wood like breakout. Ks are back up. BBs are down. HRs will go down a little. And I think he can give a team 180-190 innings.

[Clem Fandango]

He's only ever done that twice in his career, and it was early. I'd set his max IP at 170. Not because of health purposes, per se, but because he's never been one to make it deep into ball games. He's more likely to give you 5-6 innings in a good outing than 7-8. That said I don't hate him as a possible target, but he's not really on my radar.

[Guest]

I was in love with Kaz when he was on the Mets.

[rawaction]

He's only ever done that twice in his career, and it was early. I'd set his max IP at 170. Not because of health purposes, per se, but because he's never been one to make it deep into ball games. He's more likely to give you 5-6 innings in a good outing than 7-8. That said I don't hate him as a possible target, but he's not really on my radar.

 

He's as healthy as he has been since then. He also rarely was allowed to go over 90 pitches and still went 6 innings in 13 of his last 22 starts.

[Clem Fandango]

He's only ever done that twice in his career, and it was early. I'd set his max IP at 170. Not because of health purposes, per se, but because he's never been one to make it deep into ball games. He's more likely to give you 5-6 innings in a good outing than 7-8. That said I don't hate him as a possible target, but he's not really on my radar.

 

He's as healthy as he has been since then. He also rarely was allowed to go over 90 pitches and still went 6 innings in 13 of his last 22 starts.

 

Saying Scott Kazmir is "as healthy as he has been since then" gives zero assurance that he'll stay that way. His injury history can not be ignored. But like I said, I don't mind him as a target, he still very obviously has the capability of putting up good numbers... I just don't trust his ability to stay healthy, and I never will.