Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The game adjusts quickly these days. The hyper-thorough Schilling approach has probably been aped by a dozen teams now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I will say this. I came up with this hypothetical today:

 

Tanaka just wants someone to make a huge, huge bid. His agent thinks the Cubs might do it. He acts all unimpressed and disinterested in their pitch and hopes that it makes them desperate.

 

So maybe the fact that we look almost out of it is actually because we're just soooooo in. Or something.

[Guest]

Bosio and his success with guys that have similar repertoires should be prominently mentioned too.

 

Is this actually a thing? That's pretty damn cool.

 

I haven't looked at things since earlier this year, but there was a really strong correlation between pitchers being exposed to Bosio and an improvement in their GB%. Tanaka profiles as a guy who will still get his share of K's (not quite Shark-esque, but you get the idea) while still needing to keep the ball down with his splitter to get everyone else out.

[Sammy Sofa]

Bosio and his success with guys that have similar repertoires should be prominently mentioned too.

 

Is this actually a thing? That's pretty damn cool.

 

I haven't looked at things since earlier this year, but there was a really strong correlation between pitchers being exposed to Bosio and an improvement in their GB%. Tanaka profiles as a guy who will still get his share of K's (not quite Shark-esque, but you get the idea) while still needing to keep the ball down with his splitter to get everyone else out.

 

Well, [expletive], that's awesome. I hope he's the kinda guy that listens to something like that, because it sounds like something the FO would be all over.

[Sammy Sofa]

And to be fair I really don't pay attention to sports in general.

 

lets get some more of your hot sports takes then

 

Outlook: not good.

[imb]

I will say this. I came up with this hypothetical today:

 

Tanaka just wants someone to make a huge, huge bid. His agent thinks the Cubs might do it. He acts all unimpressed and disinterested in their pitch and hopes that it makes them desperate.

 

So maybe the fact that we look almost out of it is actually because we're just soooooo in. Or something.

 

they ARE inscrutable

[ctcf]

Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo

The Red Sox were not one of the teams who met with Tanaka on his US visit but they have talked to agent Casey Close

[Guest]

Marlin Bystro:

 

I really don't think the LA teams are seriously in on Tanaka. Especially the Angels. I guess Tanaka could always go there and take about 25-30 percent less, but I highly doubt that happens.

[Sammy Sofa]

Urge to hope...rising...

[Guest]

Urge to hope...rising...

 

Now, if only the theory that the Yankees have been granted a reprieve from the luxury tax (with the ARod thing) and now won't choose to blow past it is feasible...

[Sammy Sofa]

Urge to hope...rising...

 

Now, if only the theory that the Yankees have been granted a reprieve from the luxury tax (with the ARod thing) and now won't choose to blow past it is feasible...

 

[expletive]. I'm back in.

[Cubswin11]

I never really thought of the Angels as a suitor for Tanaka, figured they'd be more in on the Garza/Ubaldo market than on him. You can't rule out the Dodgers with their blank check ownership group, but maybe they are trying to be a little responsible with also knowing they are going to have to give the biggest contract ever to a pitcher in the next yearish.

[Guest]

I never really thought of the Angels as a suitor for Tanaka, figured they'd be more in on the Garza/Ubaldo market than on him. You can't rule out the Dodgers with their blank check ownership group, but maybe they are trying to be a little responsible with also knowing they are going to have to give the biggest contract ever to a pitcher in the next yearish.

 

Yeah, I've never considered the Angels to have a serious chance of ending up with Tanaka. There's lots of reasons for the Dodgers to not be in on him too, but they aren't exactly working on the same plane as everyone else, both in rationality and in resources.

[jersey cubs fan]

Urge to hope...rising...

 

Now, if only the theory that the Yankees have been granted a reprieve from the luxury tax (with the ARod thing) and now won't choose to blow past it is feasible...

 

I thought the ARod thing left them with room to add Tanaka and stay below.

[Guest]

Urge to hope...rising...

 

Now, if only the theory that the Yankees have been granted a reprieve from the luxury tax (with the ARod thing) and now won't choose to blow past it is feasible...

 

I thought the ARod thing left them with room to add Tanaka and stay below.

 

I thought so too but then I read that after you add in filling out the rest of their roster and leaving some budget room that all teams leave for call-ups and possible additions and things like that (not sure I'm remembering this exactly right), that there wasn't that much room to put a bid in on par with what is being talked about.

 

I didn't look much more closely at it, though, because I'd rather just assume that the Yankees are legit competition and probably the favorites.

[Guest]

Urge to hope...rising...

 

Now, if only the theory that the Yankees have been granted a reprieve from the luxury tax (with the ARod thing) and now won't choose to blow past it is feasible...

 

I thought the ARod thing left them with room to add Tanaka and stay below.

 

I'm not a luxury tax expert, but I don't think they can. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, they're at 170 million for 18 players, meaning Tanaka's AAV would have to be below 16 million(probably less with the reality of call-ups) to stay under. Also, I'm not sure how luxury tax handles money paid by other teams, but those are with assumptions that are favorable to the Yankees(i.e. only the money they're paying Soriano counts and not the AAV of his deal).

[Guest]

I'm not a luxury tax expert, but I don't think they can. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, they're at 170 million for 18 players, meaning Tanaka's AAV would have to be below 16 million(probably less with the reality of call-ups) to stay under. Also, I'm not sure how luxury tax handles money paid by other teams, but those are with assumptions that are favorable to the Yankees(i.e. only the money they're paying Soriano counts and not the AAV of his deal).

 

As an addendum, I think the best case scenario is that the calculation above is correct. That would very much make Tanaka a tipping point on whether they want to be in the luxury tax indefinitely or not. If they don't sign him, then they reset the tax rate, and while A-Rod's salary coming back basically wipes away all the money they have leaving in free agency, they can at least spend with a less heavy burden, plus they'll actually have received money from revenue sharing.

 

If they do add Tanaka, they'll pay penalties this year(~10 million), they won't get anything from revenue sharing, they'll definitely pay penalties next year at the rate that's over 30% higher(they also have no large contracts coming clear after 2015). Basically, signing Tanaka is also signing up for a pretty huge additional payment, maybe of up to $50 million.

 

They're the Yankees, so maybe they don't care. I still think they're the biggest threat to the Cubs in getting Tanaka. But unless I'm missing something pretty substantial(very possible, again I'm no luxury tax guru), if the Yankees are at all serious about staying under the tax this year, they have good reason to pass.

[Guest]

I'm not a luxury tax expert, but I don't think they can. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, they're at 170 million for 18 players, meaning Tanaka's AAV would have to be below 16 million(probably less with the reality of call-ups) to stay under. Also, I'm not sure how luxury tax handles money paid by other teams, but those are with assumptions that are favorable to the Yankees(i.e. only the money they're paying Soriano counts and not the AAV of his deal).

 

As an addendum, I think the best case scenario is that the calculation above is correct. That would very much make Tanaka a tipping point on whether they want to be in the luxury tax indefinitely or not. If they don't sign him, then they reset the tax rate, and while A-Rod's salary coming back basically wipes away all the money they have leaving in free agency, they can at least spend with a less heavy burden, plus they'll actually have received money from revenue sharing.

 

If they do add Tanaka, they'll pay penalties this year(~10 million), they won't get anything from revenue sharing, they'll definitely pay penalties next year at the rate that's over 30% higher(they also have no large contracts coming clear after 2015). Basically, signing Tanaka is also signing up for a pretty huge additional payment, maybe of up to $50 million.

 

They're the Yankees, so maybe they don't care. I still think they're the biggest threat to the Cubs in getting Tanaka. But unless I'm missing something pretty substantial(very possible, again I'm no luxury tax guru), if the Yankees are at all serious about staying under the tax this year, they have good reason to pass.

 

Well, now I have all too much hope. Thanks for that, jerk.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not a luxury tax expert, but I don't think they can. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, they're at 170 million for 18 players, meaning Tanaka's AAV would have to be below 16 million(probably less with the reality of call-ups) to stay under. Also, I'm not sure how luxury tax handles money paid by other teams, but those are with assumptions that are favorable to the Yankees(i.e. only the money they're paying Soriano counts and not the AAV of his deal).

 

As an addendum, I think the best case scenario is that the calculation above is correct. That would very much make Tanaka a tipping point on whether they want to be in the luxury tax indefinitely or not. If they don't sign him, then they reset the tax rate, and while A-Rod's salary coming back basically wipes away all the money they have leaving in free agency, they can at least spend with a less heavy burden, plus they'll actually have received money from revenue sharing.

 

If they do add Tanaka, they'll pay penalties this year(~10 million), they won't get anything from revenue sharing, they'll definitely pay penalties next year at the rate that's over 30% higher(they also have no large contracts coming clear after 2015). Basically, signing Tanaka is also signing up for a pretty huge additional payment, maybe of up to $50 million.

 

They're the Yankees, so maybe they don't care. I still think they're the biggest threat to the Cubs in getting Tanaka. But unless I'm missing something pretty substantial(very possible, again I'm no luxury tax guru), if the Yankees are at all serious about staying under the tax this year, they have good reason to pass.

 

Well, now I have all too much hope. Thanks for that, jerk.

 

Yup, I've done a complete 180 yet again. THIS BETTER WORK, NERDLINGER.

[A New Era]

So the Yankee's still have to worry bout the tax and Marlyn doesn't think either LA team is serious.

 

Dammit, boner back.

[jumbo]

No idea if Tanaka is married, but if so, you've got to roll out the red carpet for his wife.

 

Again, no idea if he even has a wife.

 

You're kidding, right? I have a feeling you knew all along...even mentioned it twice to not look like a pervert. That's fine, I'll do it.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Mai+Satoda&espv=210&es_sm=122&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=HCjUUomHG4Xd2QW0uICoAg&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1600&bih=775

[Guest]

They're the Yankees, so maybe they don't care. I still think they're the biggest threat to the Cubs in getting Tanaka. But unless I'm missing something pretty substantial(very possible, again I'm no luxury tax guru), if the Yankees are at all serious about staying under the tax this year, they have good reason to pass.

 

Well, now I have all too much hope. Thanks for that, jerk.

 

Yup, I've done a complete 180 yet again. THIS BETTER WORK, NERDLINGER.

 

To make sure I've got enough emphasis on that last part, I'll reiterate: they're the New York Yankees. They may say "50 million? DON'T CARE" and sign him up for whatever it takes. You can probably whittle into that number when estimating because Tanaka would make a big difference in their ability to get at playoff revenue this year and next. Even if you don't, this doesn't mean the Cubs are clear to get Tanaka for a sweet price, the Yankees are highly motivated and can still offer a healthy amount of money without running into luxury tax hassles. What this does do, is at least give a credible reason for them not to be head over heels for Tanaka. That means that we should be reasonably hopeful that if the Cubs are as hell-bent on Tanaka as some of the rumblings and quite frankly, their lack of offseason activity might indicate, that they have a pretty decent shot.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

You poor bastards. I love this board and everyone on it, but it hurts me to see so many people holding out hope. You only are going to be hurt in the end. (Insert being a Cubs fan joke here).

 

I want Tanaka as much as everybody else, but it's not going to happen. It's over. We should go sign Matt Garza while nobody is paying attention.

[Guest]

I think the Cubs have as good a chance as any team of landing him. They need him more. He's a big part of the rebuilding plan.

[NOLA]

No idea if Tanaka is married, but if so, you've got to roll out the red carpet for his wife.

 

Again, no idea if he even has a wife.

 

You're kidding, right? I have a feeling you knew all along...even mentioned it twice to not look like a pervert. That's fine, I'll do it.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Mai+Satoda&espv=210&es_sm=122&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=HCjUUomHG4Xd2QW0uICoAg&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1600&bih=775

 

What is she like 14 years old? Is Japan the Alabama of Asia?