Midseason Top 30 Prospect Ranking

[Guest]

Not sure how much I like my rankings but here's what I went with:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Jorge Soler

3. Albert Almora

4. Kris Bryant

5. Arismendy Alcantara

6. Pierce Johnson

7. Jeimer Candelario

8. Arodys Vizcaino

9. Dan Vogelbach

10. Junior Lake

11. Rob Zastryzny

12. Alberto Cabrera

13. Christian Villanueva

14. Duane Underwood

15. Logan Watkins

16. Paul Blackburn

17. Ronald Torreyes

18. Matt Szczur

19. Kyle Hendricks

20. Jae-Hoon Ha

21. Willson Contreras

22. Juan Paniagua - really tough to find a spot for him

23. Jacob Hannemann

24. Josh Vitters

25. Shawon Dunston Jr

26. Tyler Skulina

27. Ben Wells

28. Dustin Geiger

29. Dillon Maples

30. Zach Rosscup

 

Reggie Golden was the guy who just missed for me.

[rawaction]

my tiered top-30

 

top group is listed comparables for best-case / likely / worst-case career arcs for a player, making the assumption they continue development through to the bigs; i guess best-case & worst-case can be thought of as 20th/80th-percentile forecasts, should they see MLB time

 

it's really just an exercise that helps me decide how i feel about a player

 

1) soler: brian jordan / rondell white / juan encarnacion

2) almora: randy winn / marlon byrd / luis matos

3) baez: adrian beltre / jose hernandez / dale sveum

4) bryant: troy glaus / pat burrell / chad hermansen

5) alcantara: ray durham / felipe lopez / mariano duncan

 

 

 

I know that Jordan and Winn were pretty solid pros who had good careers, but I personally see the best-case scenario for Soler and Almora to be better than that... Not sure who I would compare them to, but I just think that is a pessimistic best-case

 

I always thought Soler physically looked like Richard Hidalgo build wise. But Hidalgo is a tough comparison because he was good, then amazing, then terrible for a year, then good again and then mediocre at best. But Hildago was a career .276/.365/.500 hitter for Houston. That's about the ceiling I see for Soler.

[Guest]

Through 21 submissions:

 

Javier Baez 618

Jorge Soler 598

Albert Almora 597

Kris Bryant 576

Pierce Johnson 503

Arismendy Alcantara 488

Dan Vogelbach 475

Arodys Vizcaino 396

Jeimer Candelario 372

Junior Lake 344

Juan Paniagua 332

Paul Blackburn 292

Christian Villanueva 283

Duane Underwood 280

Matt Szczur 267

Rob Zastryzny 231

Kyle Hendricks 209

Ronald Torreyes 192

Alberto Cabrera 176

Jacob Hannemann 175

Dillon Maples 138

Josh Vitters 127

Logan Watkins 119

Jae-Hoon Ha 106

Gioskar Amaya 89

Willson Contreras 88

Shawon Dunston Jr. 88

Marco Hernandez 77

Ben Wells 57

Brett Jackson 56

[sneakypower]

my tiered top-30

 

top group is listed comparables for best-case / likely / worst-case career arcs for a player, making the assumption they continue development through to the bigs; i guess best-case & worst-case can be thought of as 20th/80th-percentile forecasts, should they see MLB time

 

it's really just an exercise that helps me decide how i feel about a player

 

1) soler: brian jordan / rondell white / juan encarnacion

2) almora: randy winn / marlon byrd / luis matos

3) baez: adrian beltre / jose hernandez / dale sveum

4) bryant: troy glaus / pat burrell / chad hermansen

5) alcantara: ray durham / felipe lopez / mariano duncan

 

 

I know that Jordan and Winn were pretty solid pros who had good careers, but I personally see the best-case scenario for Soler and Almora to be better than that... Not sure who I would compare them to, but I just think that is a pessimistic best-case

Brian Jordan (31 bWAR during his 8-year peak) and Randy Winn (25 bWAR during his 7-year peak) were pretty awesome; if Soler slugs better than .475 for a decade and Almora tops 13 years with a .284 career BA i'll be on cloud nine

Edited June 24, 2013 by sneakypower

[Guest]

Yeah, I loved Brian Jordan.

[TruffleShuffle]

who had bryant 8th after pierce johnson, vogelbach and vizcaino?!? that one is baffling.

 

i had baez lowest of anybody (4th). guys i think i'm higher on that most people on this board: almora, villanueva, zych, dunston, bruno, rusin, jackson (still think he's better than 30th, even if he has fallen massively in the last year). guys i'm not as high on: baez, hendricks, maples. don't have a clue what to do with paniagua, frankly.

[davell]

1 Baez

2 Soler

3 Almora

4 Bryant

5 Alcantara

6 Johnson

7 Vogelbach

8 Vizcaino

9 Candelario

10 Lake

11 Paniagua

12 Zastryzny

13 Villanueva

14 Blackburn

15 Szczur

16 Torreyes

17 Underwood

18 Cabrera

19 Hendricks

20 Contreras

21 Skulina

22 Vitters

23 Ha

24 Amaya

25 Maples

26 Hannemann

27 Dunston

28 Watkins

29 Masek

30 Hernandez

 

If Leal or Clifton were listed as options, I would have flipped a coin between them at 30.

[davell]

We're likely going to need to do another of these around August 1st. We'll have small sample sizes to dream on out of our draft class, a few IFA signings, and potentially trade pieces we've obtained for Garza, Feldman, and Schierholtz(Soriano, DeJesus, Villanueva, Russell, or Gregg could all net returns worthy of top 30 status as well, if dealt), to factor in. At any rate, if we do NOT make a huge trade over the offseason, its very possible that we'll have 5 top 20 prospects at this point next year, with plenty of other possibilities inside the top 100 as well. Even if we trade two of our current big 4 between now and then, we're still very likely to be a top 5 system at this time next year.

[TruffleShuffle]

We're likely going to need to do another of these around August 1st. We'll have small sample sizes to dream on out of our draft class, a few IFA signings, and potentially trade pieces we've obtained for Garza, Feldman, and Schierholtz(Soriano, DeJesus, Villanueva, Russell, or Gregg could all net returns worthy of top 30 status as well, if dealt), to factor in. At any rate, if we do NOT make a huge trade over the offseason, its very possible that we'll have 5 top 20 prospects at this point next year, with plenty of other possibilities inside the top 100 as well. Even if we trade two of our current big 4 between now and then, we're still very likely to be a top 5 system at this time next year.

 

i assume you're including next year's first round draft pick among the 5?

 

regardless, i'd say it's quite unlikely that the cubs have 5 players in the top 20 at this stage next year. having four up there right now means that they have four really highly regarded prospects who are generally healthy and productive. it wouldn't take much for any one of them to fall out of the top 20 due to injury or a slump.

[Guest]

With 26 submissions...

 

Javier Baez 764

Jorge Soler 743

Albert Almora 740

Kris Bryant 712

Pierce Johnson 621

Arismendy Alcantara 605

Dan Vogelbach 589

Arodys Vizcaino 520

Jeimer Candelario 461

Junior Lake 456

Juan Paniagua 383

Christian Villanueva 365

Matt Szczur 344

Duane Underwood 323

Paul Blackburn 322

Rob Zastryzny 298

Kyle Hendricks 233

Ronald Torreyes 232

Jacob Hannemann 221

Alberto Cabrera 199

Josh Vitters 175

Dillon Maples 156

Logan Watkins 136

Jae-Hoon Ha 132

Brett Jackson 110

Gioskar Amaya 108

Shawon Dunston Jr. 108

Willson Contreras 99

Tyler Skulina 85

Marco Hernandez 78

[TruffleShuffle]

surprised that alcantara is behind johnson.

[Rob]

I'm not sure I like including the submissions that didn't bother to fill out the whole thing. One person did a top 5 and another just a top 7, which artificially inflates the gap between some of the later players.

 

At any rate, I noticed that I definitely have a case of Shiny New Toy Syndrome compared to the rest of you. Bryant was #2. Zastryzny #9, Hanneman #13, and Skulina #25 on my list.

[toonsterwu]

Rob, curious why Skulina at 25 for you? I was pushing for him in the draft, but even I'm not that high on him.

 

Anyhow, if I get a chance, I'll try to do this in the next few days. Been busy. At first glance, I think Raisin's list would look fairly similar to mine, through, say, the top half of the list (although I don't know if I really want to put Watkins in the top 15ish ... ). Tough call at the top ... I think you can make an argument for any of the 4 to be at 1.

[Tryptamine]

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Soler

4. Bryant

5. Alcantara

6. Vizcaino

7. Johnson

8. Candelario

9. Paniagua

10. Vogelbach

11. Lake

12. Villanueva

13. Underwood

14. Szczur

15. Blackburn

16. Cabrera

17. Zastryzny

18. Torreyes

19. Maples

20. Hendricks

21. Contreras

22. Golden

23. Vitters

24. Brett Jackson

25. Dunston

26. Hannemann

27. Wells

28. Watkins

29. Ha

30. Amaya

[CubColtPacer]

Is it the lack of physical projection/upside with Torreyes that have some people ranking him so low? Youngest player in the Southern League (not sure about all of AA) and doesn't seem to have problems defensively at one of the most difficult positions to find offense at. His numbers aren't great, but he should have less falloff from level to level because of that elite strikeout rate. He seems to me to be the most safe bet the Cubs have to be a major leaguer for at least a couple years, and he very well could be a fine starter for several years.

[rawaction]

Anyhow, if I get a chance, I'll try to do this in the next few days. Been busy. At first glance, I think Raisin's list would look fairly similar to mine, through, say, the top half of the list (although I don't know if I really want to put Watkins in the top 15ish ... ). Tough call at the top ... I think you can make an argument for any of the 4 to be at 1.

 

My list is very similar to Raisin's. Same top 9, but switch 5-6 and then 7-9. I have Hanneman and Paniagua higher though.

 

Also, as I have maintained all season. I don't think there's much of an argument for #1. Baez has the most experience, most upside, plays the most crucial position, and is putting up the numbers at the highest level of the top 4.

 

Baez v. Soler- same level, but Baez now has outperformed him at the same level, is younger and plays a better position.

 

Baez v. Almora- higher level, been there done that with tearing up low A. Almora's walk rate has actually been worse than Baez's

 

Baez v. Bryant- Baez is almost a year younger, has positive professional experience. More likely to stick at SS than Bryant is at 3B, IMO.

[TruffleShuffle]

Is it the lack of physical projection/upside with Torreyes that have some people ranking him so low?

 

it's probably the concern that he ends up with a rey ordonez or jose iglesias type bat, where he makes a lot of contact but doens't make enough solid contact or hit for much power. i can see him being a guy who hits for high average or a guy who hits a really empty .260. could go either way, really.

[Warpticon]

It's also probably the fact that he's underperformed his peripherals for pretty much the entire time he's been in the organization, which may lead some people to wonder if that just may be part of his profile. Or the mole.

[Guest]

The big (and really, only) appeal for Torreyes when he was acquired was the elite hit tool. A .356 average and 19/14 K/BB in 306 PA in Low-A at age 18 is pretty impressive. We're the better part of 2 years past that now, and while the contact is still there, the hits aren't. Torreyes is still young for AA at 20, but we're now 675 PAs into his Cubs career and he has an identical .264 AVG across two levels. He may get some BABIP and age/maturity improvement on that, but considering everything else that's not exactly in his favor(no plus defense, power, walk rate, or positional scarcity), it needs to come through in a pretty big way for him to be a Major Leaguer.

[Guest]

I really want to contribute but anything past maybe 10 would be just throwing [expletive] against the wall.

[wekim81]

1. Baez

2. Almora (almost have him 1)

3. Soler

4. Bryant

5. Alcantara

6. P.Johnson

7. Vogelbach

8. Candelario (still believe)

9. Lake (his bat's gonna find a home somewhere)

10. A.Vizcaino (hardest to place)

11. A.Cabrera (someone coudl put him 8 and i wouldn't argue)

12. Villanueva

13. Szczur (perfect 4th OF)

14. Underwood

15. Blackburn

16. Zastryzny (as previously noted, i'm lower on him than most, I believe)

17. Paniagua (complete shot in the dark)

18. Amaya

19. W.Contreras

20. Hendricks

21. Torreyes

22. JH Ha

23. Hannemann

24. Dunston (I like him a good deal)

25. Geiger

26. M.Hernandez (I don't get the love)

27. Maples (and falling)

28. D.Torrez

29. T.Masek

30. Watkins

[Rob]

Rob, curious why Skulina at 25 for you? I was pushing for him in the draft, but even I'm not that high on him.

 

Anyhow, if I get a chance, I'll try to do this in the next few days. Been busy. At first glance, I think Raisin's list would look fairly similar to mine, through, say, the top half of the list (although I don't know if I really want to put Watkins in the top 15ish ... ). Tough call at the top ... I think you can make an argument for any of the 4 to be at 1.

 

Gun to my head, I'd say it's because I'm far more familiar with the flaws of the people he's ranked above than I am with his.

[Rob]

You can probably figure mine out if you wanted to parse the data, but I guess I can put it all in one place.

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Jorge Soler

4. Albert Almora

5. Arismendy Alcantara

6. Pierce Johnson

7. Dan Vogelbach

8. Arodys Vizcaino

9. Rob Zastryzny

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Junior Lake

12. Juan Paniagua

13. Jacob Hannemann

14. Duane Underwood

15. Matt Szczur

16. Alberto Cabrera

17. Christian Villanueva

18. Dillon Maples

19. Ronald Torreyes

20. Marco Hernandez

21. Paul Blackburn

22. Josh Vitters

23. Brett Jackson

24. Tony Zych

25. Tyler Skulina

26. Logan Watkins

27. Ben Wells

28. Jae-Hoon Ha

29. Austin Reed

30. Gioskar Amaya

 

That was the submission I put together in a couple minutes. Looking at it now, there's a decent amount I'd change.

[toonsterwu]

Rob, curious why Skulina at 25 for you? I was pushing for him in the draft, but even I'm not that high on him.

 

Anyhow, if I get a chance, I'll try to do this in the next few days. Been busy. At first glance, I think Raisin's list would look fairly similar to mine, through, say, the top half of the list (although I don't know if I really want to put Watkins in the top 15ish ... ). Tough call at the top ... I think you can make an argument for any of the 4 to be at 1.

 

Gun to my head, I'd say it's because I'm far more familiar with the flaws of the people he's ranked above than I am with his.

 

Fair enough. Skulina does have enough ceiling to be in the back end of the top 30. I just haven't had time to do a list to really ponder it. I may end up agreeing with you, although I'm not certain.

[Little Slide Rooter]

my tiered top-30

 

top group is listed comparables for best-case / likely / worst-case career arcs for a player, making the assumption they continue development through to the bigs; i guess best-case & worst-case can be thought of as 20th/80th-percentile forecasts, should they see MLB time

 

it's really just an exercise that helps me decide how i feel about a player

 

1) soler: brian jordan / rondell white / juan encarnacion

2) almora: randy winn / marlon byrd / luis matos

3) baez: adrian beltre / jose hernandez / dale sveum

4) bryant: troy glaus / pat burrell / chad hermansen

5) alcantara: ray durham / felipe lopez / mariano duncan

 

 

I know that Jordan and Winn were pretty solid pros who had good careers, but I personally see the best-case scenario for Soler and Almora to be better than that... Not sure who I would compare them to, but I just think that is a pessimistic best-case

Brian Jordan (31 bWAR during his 8-year peak) and Randy Winn (25 bWAR during his 7-year peak) were pretty awesome; if Soler slugs better than .475 for a decade and Almora tops 13 years with a .284 career BA i'll be on cloud nine

 

Can't argue with this, but when thinking in terms of best case scenario for two of the our top three prospects, the guys that keep us involved in a time when the big league club's been horrid for the past several years and the farm system is better than its been in the past decade, you want to think more along the lines of Sammy Sosa and Rickey Henderson. Realistic? No, but best case scenarios usually aren't.