Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-3-13

[Guest]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/06032013/diamondbacks-rally-twice-thwart-cubs-talking-stick

 

Junior Lake with another good game, 1/3 with a double and a walk. He played CF again.

 

Carlos Penalver, Trevor Gretzky, Francisco Sanchez and Mark Malave all had multi-hit games. Loiger Padron and Alexander Santana gave up 1 ER in 4 IP.

 

Has Lake been in center in all his rehab games? Do you think he's just moved to OF, or what? I hope so, myself. I just don't believe he'll ever be adequate in the infield. Too big for SS, and he's been such a prolific error-maker for so many year, I just don't believe that's ever going to improve enough. Obviously not likely that he'll hit enough for OF, but that's more likely than that he'll play good 3B.

 

Heh, speaking of 3B, I noted that Mike Olt, who many posters were really sold on, has a .591 OPS with 39K/89AB. Ouch.

 

Amongst his non-DH games, I believe Lake played his first at 3B and the rest have been in CF.

[craig]

Thanks. Will be interesting how they use him. With Jackson struggling (until yesterday), DeJesus getting no younger, and Almora still years away at best, CF would seem to still be an open position. Well, really all outfield positions. For Lake, I think the power is the key. He's going to whiff a lot, and walk little. But if he could hit enough HR's, he could be usable. His speed and arm would theoretically make his well-tooled for CF/RF. Of course, that also seemed true when Soriano signed and began in CF, so speed/arm/"athleticism" obviously doesn't always sum up to good OF defense.

[sneakypower]

so is alcantara a likely top 100?

Alcantara's 150 G / 550 AB pace right now is 76 R, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 41 SB (54 BB, 139 K) & .282/.350/.480 (.333 babip)

 

the only qualifying players in the Southern League who are younger than Alcantara are Christian Yelich, Joc Pederson and Roni Torreyes

 

Mike Newman (FG) liked him quite a bit in his preseason Southern League rankings:

7. Arismendy Alcantara (SS-CHC)

 

Another prospect I’ll see more of in 2013, Alcantara has an intriguing mix of tools. If the shortstop develops as planned, then he’s a plus runner with gap power and the defensive chops to be an average or better shortstop. This ranking is aggressive considering my comfort level with prospects eight through 10, but Alcantara made a strong first impression. Like Dahl, he’s a player who’ll require multiple defensive looks to round out the profile.

Arguello had a pretty glowing write-up too, from late April

He showed quick-twitch athletic ability, speed, a strong arm, and the quick hands to potentially generate better power than you might otherwise expect from a guy who stands 5'10" and weighs 160 lbs. In fact, according to Baseball America, some scouts have compared him to a young, similarly-sized Jimmy Rollins The thing is, he never really put that together on the field -- until last year.

[...]

The most marked improvement with Alcantara has been in his ability to work counts and get on base. This is a trend that started in July of last year -- even a bit earlier as Alcantara had shown some good pitch recognition, and now is starting to apply that skill to draw more walks and get ahead in counts. The improvement has been remarkable.

 

I have posted and/or tweeted this before, but Alcantara drew 12 walks in 313 PAs from April of 2012 to June of 2012. That's a walk rate of 3.8%. In his 136 PAs since then, he has walked 18 times, a rate of 13.3%.

i think if he keeps playing at this rate, he'll be a universal inclusion in top-100 lists

[scarey]

Thanks. Will be interesting how they use him. With Jackson struggling (until yesterday), DeJesus getting no younger, and Almora still years away at best, CF would seem to still be an open position. Well, really all outfield positions. For Lake, I think the power is the key. He's going to whiff a lot, and walk little. But if he could hit enough HR's, he could be usable. His speed and arm would theoretically make his well-tooled for CF/RF. Of course, that also seemed true when Soriano signed and began in CF, so speed/arm/"athleticism" obviously doesn't always sum up to good OF defense.

 

Do you feel that Ha isn't capable of playing at center? Or did you just overlook him?

 

I can't say for sure if he'll stick there and be good enough to be a starter. The guy has started more games in CF than anywhere else in the outfield this year, so it appears he's at least a capable defender there.

 

He's also posted an .811 OPS and a fantastic .103 IsoD (which is all the more admirable especially given his approach just two years ago). He won't turn 23 until October. I keep wondering why he doesn't get talked about more. He could be a nice stop gap before Almora arrives.

[Guest]

so is alcantara a likely top 100?

Alcantara's 150 G / 550 AB pace right now is 76 R, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 41 SB (54 BB, 139 K) & .282/.350/.480 (.333 babip)

 

the only qualifying players in the Southern League who are younger than Alcantara are Christian Yelich, Joc Pederson and Roni Torreyes

 

Mike Newman (FG) liked him quite a bit in his preseason Southern League rankings:

7. Arismendy Alcantara (SS-CHC)

 

Another prospect I’ll see more of in 2013, Alcantara has an intriguing mix of tools. If the shortstop develops as planned, then he’s a plus runner with gap power and the defensive chops to be an average or better shortstop. This ranking is aggressive considering my comfort level with prospects eight through 10, but Alcantara made a strong first impression. Like Dahl, he’s a player who’ll require multiple defensive looks to round out the profile.

Arguello had a pretty glowing write-up too, from late April

He showed quick-twitch athletic ability, speed, a strong arm, and the quick hands to potentially generate better power than you might otherwise expect from a guy who stands 5'10" and weighs 160 lbs. In fact, according to Baseball America, some scouts have compared him to a young, similarly-sized Jimmy Rollins The thing is, he never really put that together on the field -- until last year.

[...]

The most marked improvement with Alcantara has been in his ability to work counts and get on base. This is a trend that started in July of last year -- even a bit earlier as Alcantara had shown some good pitch recognition, and now is starting to apply that skill to draw more walks and get ahead in counts. The improvement has been remarkable.

 

I have posted and/or tweeted this before, but Alcantara drew 12 walks in 313 PAs from April of 2012 to June of 2012. That's a walk rate of 3.8%. In his 136 PAs since then, he has walked 18 times, a rate of 13.3%.

i think if he keeps playing at this rate, he'll be a universal inclusion in top-100 lists

 

Pretty awesome that we seem to be getting a payout on the "one of all these SS prospects will take a step forward and become a big time prospect this year" thing we discussed before this season.

[toonsterwu]

Alcantara stepped forward last year but because he got hurt the 2nd half, I think people lost track of him (hence why it was so difficult to get folks to consider him top 10).

 

As for Ha, his CF is ... debatable. If you believe some folks, it's top notch. If you talk to some others, he's so good athletically that he overcomes any mis-steps he takes (and as such, looks good), sort of the Eric Byrnes-effect. I guess there's some others that plop him in that Brandon Guyer/Tyler Colvin category, capable in CF but better off in the corner. I haven't seen Ha in awhile, but my feeling was that he would be fine in CF if his bat played. I'm not sure he'd be elite, as some have suggested, but I think he'd be above average.

 

Problem is, what type of bat does he have? For all his tools, the power hasn't come around, and the swing, at last check, probably won't generate the type of power that his raw tools suggest. He's not really a leadoff hitter. Now, these are small problems in the scheme of things. If he continues to show solid discipline and makes consistent contact, he'll get a shot, but I think the fact that his profile is such a question mark (not really the leadoff/speedy CF type and doesn't really have the ideal power for a corner role) often gets him the "4th OF" label.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get why "not really being a leadoff hitter" means he can't start in CF.

[Guest]

I don't get why "not really being a leadoff hitter" means he can't start in CF.

 

I think he was just listing the type of hitters he isn't. I still don't like that characterization... but after knocking his power, he basically seems to be saying, "and he's not even a leadoff hitter."

 

That said, if he hits for contact and gets on base, that's definitely what you'd primarily want in a leadoff hitter.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get why "not really being a leadoff hitter" means he can't start in CF.

 

I think he was just listing the type of hitters he isn't. I still don't like that characterization... but after knocking his power, he basically seems to be saying, "and he's not even a leadoff hitter."

 

Yeah, I don't think he sounds like a guy who is going to help much at the CF position for the longterm. But if the question is can he hold down CF for a year or two while more appropriate solutions are found, the answer is a bit vague. The 7 and 8 holes exist and often get filled by guys with little to no power. But you don't have to be a stereotypical leadoff hitter to bat leadoff either. The Cubs haven't had one of those in decades.

[Guest]

Hail, Caesar!

[jersey cubs fan]

Hail, Caesar!

 

Ha and Szczur are both right handed aren't they?

[Guest]

I think either Szczur or Ha can be cheap short-term options at CF on a good team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think either Szczur or Ha can be cheap short-term options at CF on a good team.

 

Ick. I mean, anyone can be anything on a team if the rest of the team is good enough.

 

But I really have trouble coming up with any sort of adequacy for Szczur that doesn't involve him massively improving over his current stats while transitioning from minors to majors, or having Bourn-ian levels of defense and baserunning. And Ha is just a worse version of the same thing.

[Guest]

I think either Szczur or Ha can be cheap short-term options at CF on a good team.

 

Ick. I mean, anyone can be anything on a team if the rest of the team is good enough.

 

But I really have trouble coming up with any sort of adequacy for Szczur that doesn't involve him massively improving over his current stats while transitioning from minors to majors, or having Bourn-ian levels of defense and baserunning. And Ha is just a worse version of the same thing.

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

That's a 2-3 win player.

 

Neither of them is exciting, but either one of them would do a pretty good DeJesus impression at the top of the order, but Szczur would provide some additional speed up there, as well. Both would likely be better in CF than DeJesus, as well.

[craig]

.....With Jackson struggling (until yesterday), DeJesus getting no younger, and Almora still years away at best, CF would seem to still be an open position. ......

 

Do you feel that Ha isn't capable of playing at center? Or did you just overlook him?...

 

I think Ha has a chance. I think Szczur has a chance. I think Jackson has a chance. I think Lake could have a chance.

 

I don't think any of those has a great chance, or a chance to be great.

 

Ha: I like Ha, I'm not sure how good he is but I have hopes that he's very good defensively. I assume he could be better than DeJesus defensively. Ha's offense is limited in that he's shown very little power, and he K's a lot. I don't know how long he'll be injured this year. He has an .811 OPS this year, but that's in 25 games with a .387 BABIP that I don't expect to last. Last season he was .737. At 22 he's got time to get better, and if he does he could become a pretty good player. But he's got two big steps up. He's got a chance, but it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed.

 

Szczur: He's 23, almost 24, so more than a year older than Ha. He's running a .741 OPS, after .751-overall last year, and he has no power. As with Ha, I'm not sure how good he is defensively but I hope that he's got very good CF ability, certainly more than DeJesus has. He's .359 OBP this year. If he could play excellent defense and be a .360-OBP type guy, he could be a pretty useful player. He could improve some, he's got a chance, but again it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed.

 

Jackson: We all know his deal. He'd need to improve a whole lot, and perhaps he's still got a chance to adjust and make it work. Maybe premature to say he doesn't have a chance. But certainly it would be a much bigger surprise if he improves and succeeds than if he doesn't.

 

Lake: No evidence that he has any defensive instincts, but the gross speed/arm tools are present. With no evidence of any kind yet, there is no evidence to prove that he couldn't end up being capable defensively, and perhaps really good. He had .773-OPS last year at age 22, and has shown some signs of progress offensively. He could improve some, he's got a chance, but again it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed.

 

None are safe or compelling CF prospects. Probably Lake is the only one with a very high ceiling, since he's got much more power potential than Ha or Szczur. All of them have a chance, at least if Lake is given a chance in OF. Hopefully one (or more) of them will improve and break out and establish himself as a good major-leaguer. For Lake I think HR's and power are essential; I doubt he's ever going to be a consistent contact hitter. But he only hit 10 HR's last year, and slugged .432 and .434 the last two seasons, so it's not like he's been that much of a slugger thus far. But there may be some untapped potential.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

I absolutely know that. I don't think Szczur can be a 360/740 guy in the majors. I don't really think Ha can either, but even if he can, I'm not convinced he can play good MLB CF defense.

[Guest]

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

I absolutely know that. I don't think Szczur can be a 360/740 guy in the majors. I don't really think Ha can either, but even if he can, I'm not convinced he can play good MLB CF defense.

But you said he'd have to "massively improve" on his current numbers to be valuable.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But you said he'd have to "massively improve" on his current numbers to be valuable.

 

I phrased that poorly.

 

I meant he'd have to massively improve his statistical profile. What he's doing now doesn't project to a .740 OPS in the majors, so he'd have to massively improve to actually put up a .740 OPS in the majors.

[jersey cubs fan]

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

I absolutely know that. I don't think Szczur can be a 360/740 guy in the majors. I don't really think Ha can either, but even if he can, I'm not convinced he can play good MLB CF defense.

But you said he'd have to "massively improve" on his current numbers to be valuable.

 

His current numbers in AA match up with 360/740, but what is his MLE?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/795MXsI.png

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://i.imgur.com/795MXsI.png

 

That's what I was talking about. And he turns 24 next month, so he's already creeping up on his prime.

[toonsterwu]

I don't get why "not really being a leadoff hitter" means he can't start in CF.

 

I never said he can't start in CF. I specifically said

Now, these are small problems in the scheme of things. If he continues to show solid discipline and makes consistent contact, he'll get a shot

.

 

My point about him not being a leadoff hitter and lacking the power of a corner was in regards to my belief as to why I think he

often gets [him] the "4th OF" label.

 

Gut feeling is that, I think he can be a 2nd division starting CF. That said, therein lies the other problem. Most people would say Szczur looks like a 2nd division starting CF, and I think Szczur might be a better fit for a stopgap solution. That said, sure, Ha could be a 1-2 year stopgap type as we wait on someone.

[Guest]

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

I absolutely know that. I don't think Szczur can be a 360/740 guy in the majors. I don't really think Ha can either, but even if he can, I'm not convinced he can play good MLB CF defense.

But you said he'd have to "massively improve" on his current numbers to be valuable.

 

His current numbers in AA match up with 360/740, but what is his MLE?

Well, sure, no question. I doubt he'd step into Wrigley today and post 360/740. I was specifically responding to what Kyle said.

[jersey cubs fan]

You know that a player with good defense in center, a good strikeout and walk ratio that leads to a .360 OBP / .740 OPS that can steal bases at both a reasonable volume and positive success rate has pretty good value, right?

 

I absolutely know that. I don't think Szczur can be a 360/740 guy in the majors. I don't really think Ha can either, but even if he can, I'm not convinced he can play good MLB CF defense.

But you said he'd have to "massively improve" on his current numbers to be valuable.

 

His current numbers in AA match up with 360/740, but what is his MLE?

Well, sure, no question. I doubt he'd step into Wrigley today and post 360/740. I was specifically responding to what Kyle said.

 

Seems like an odd response then when it was clear he would have to massively improve to have those types of numbers in the majors, and he's already nearly 24.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It was my fault. I worded what I was trying to saw awkwardly, and Tim was right to question it.