Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-28-13

[davell]

He's playing on a field thats considered one of the worst in all the minors and has a guy that can't catch a cold trying to handle his throws at first, in Geiger. It's not a concern.

[sneakypower]

it's the walks and the strikeouts; think of even the hackiest, flailingest pro you can think of and they very likely both exhibited more patience and made more consistent contact at Baez's age than he has been doing

[davell]

it's the walks and the strikeouts; think of even the hackiest, flailingest pro you can think of and they very likely both exhibited more patience and made more consistent contact at Baez's age than he has been doing

 

 

Too much talent to just look at stats, especially when there seems to be plenty that thought he'd experience this. Not to mention, his last 10, he's gone .372/.426/.581 with 3 walks and 5 K's in 43 at bats. SSS? Sure. But its also entirely possible we'll see a line closer to this than his previous one for the rest of his year.

[CubsWin]

it's the walks and the strikeouts; think of even the hackiest, flailingest pro you can think of and they very likely both exhibited more patience and made more consistent contact at Baez's age than he has been doing

 

 

Too much talent to just look at stats, especially when there seems to be plenty that thought he'd experience this. Not to mention, his last 10, he's gone .372/.426/.581 with 3 walks and 5 K's in 43 at bats. SSS? Sure. But its also entirely possible we'll see a line closer to this than his previous one for the rest of his year.

Enlarge the sample to 63 at bats (since May 9th) and he's still hitting .333/.373/.524 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 3 BB and 9 Ks. It's impossible to know whether it's a hot streak or a trend. We'll just have to wait and see. But at the very least it's improvement. If the Cubs got a 3:1 ratio out of Javy the rest of the season, I think they'd be happy with that from a 20-year-old slugger in High-A.

[biittner77]

Still though, 25 errors through this part of the season can't all be explained away by bad fields and a bad first baseman. If, and it's still a big if, Baez moves off SS that reduces his value at least partially if not significantly. While I agree that his bat will play anywhere, if he can stay at SS he's an elite prospect.

 

edit: FWIW, none of the other Daytona infielders have more than 5 errors.

[Guest]

I agree. He's on pace for 60 errors in a 5-month minor league season - that's too many errors to shrug off on poor field conditions and teammates. That said, his BB and K % are far and away the biggest concern. You can hide some of his defensive struggles at another position, you can't hide those issues with the bat.

[mul21]

I agree. He's on pace for 60 errors in a 5-month minor league season - that's too many errors to shrug off on poor field conditions and teammates. That said, his BB and K % are far and away the biggest concern. You can hide some of his defensive struggles at another position, you can't hide those issues with the bat.

 

Is there any way to see how many of those are fielding vs. throwing? The throwing errors would seem to be something much more easily corrected with some work on mechanics/footwork and based on what I saw out of him last year, actually catching the ball shouldn't be an issue.

[jersey cubs fan]

Too much talent to just look at stats,

 

This is a pointless statement, because nobody is "just" looking at stats. If not for the talent, his stats would have him nowhere near the top prospect lists. It's his talent that has gotten him the attention, and kept some people from dismissing him based on his awful K/BB rates. But those K/BB rates aren't just random stats, they are quite vital to his progress as a baseball player.

 

The talent is what has gotten him this far; however, going forward it is the stats that are going to determine how much further he goes.

[Guest]

I agree. He's on pace for 60 errors in a 5-month minor league season - that's too many errors to shrug off on poor field conditions and teammates. That said, his BB and K % are far and away the biggest concern. You can hide some of his defensive struggles at another position, you can't hide those issues with the bat.

 

Is there any way to see how many of those are fielding vs. throwing? The throwing errors would seem to be something much more easily corrected with some work on mechanics/footwork and based on what I saw out of him last year, actually catching the ball shouldn't be an issue.

 

Of his first ~15 errors or so, about 2/3rds of them were throwing errors, most of which I would chalk up to having to throw to Geiger. Recently he's been on a fielding error binge though. Not sure if it's just a concentration thing since he's expending a lot of energy making strides at the plate, or if he's fundamentally approaching the ball wrong, because he definitely has the ability to avoid those comical error totals.

[craig]

Still though, 25 errors through this part of the season can't all be explained away by bad fields and a bad first baseman. .....: FWIW, none of the other Daytona infielders have more than 5 errors.

 

Yes. If the errors were based on infield and 1B, the other guys should suffer accordingly. Baez has 25/46 errors/games, Saunders 3/35, Carhart 4/47. So I think it really is Baez more than Geiger or the infield.

 

So I think the K/BB/errors are all serious concerns.

[Guest]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future. 100% of my concern/focus is on his hitting and him refining (to put it mildly) his approach. Hopefully, the last couple of weeks are indicative of real progress.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future.

 

Scouts are routinely wrong about a lot of things, and the whole point is that his value decreases as he goes down the defensive spectrum. You can say "the bat will play anywhere" all you want, but the position matters.

[Guest]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/05282013/golden-kane-county-cubs-edge-fitch-park

 

Shawon Dunston with a good game. Loiger Padron and Alexander Santana got in 3 innings each. Arizona Phil also talked about Reggie Golden and Larry Suarez's performances in extended; both were promoted yesterday.

[Guest]

Last year he had 17 errors in 75 games. I haven't heard anything about him developing the yips or anything like that.

 

I'm guessing this is a case of a kid who hasn't ever struggled with baseball before finding himself frustrated with his performance at the plate. I think the fielding is a combination of him carrying that out into the field and mentally focusing on his approach and hitting.

 

Now, that's not a good thing, either, but it doesn't speak about his physical ability to play the position. Hopefully, the mental/emotional side gets fixed as he matures (and hopefully regains success at the plate).

[craig]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future. 100% of my concern/focus is on his hitting and him refining (to put it mildly) his approach. Hopefully, the last couple of weeks are indicative of real progress.

 

I get your point, and it's clear that his arm is fine for SS. But, I think scouts are routinely thinking about what might be, **conditional on a player improving**. I doubt any of the scouts who were thinking favorably about Baez at SS would have predicted he'd have 25 errors in May.

 

SS's are involved in a lot of plays and make a ton of hurried and off-balance throws from all kinds of angles and distances. There's a matter of consistency and concentration required that goes beyond arm/range/hands tools. It's not clear that Baez is showing appropriate progress, or any progress at all, in the areas of consistency and concentration. At some point, he'll need to get a LOT better, or find a new spot.

[Cubswin11]

Last year he had 17 errors in 75 games. I haven't heard anything about him developing the yips or anything like that.

 

I'm guessing this is a case of a kid who hasn't ever struggled with baseball before finding himself frustrated with his performance at the plate. I think the fielding is a combination of him carrying that out into the field and mentally focusing on his approach and hitting.

 

Now, that's not a good thing, either, but it doesn't speak about his physical ability to play the position. Hopefully, the mental/emotional side gets fixed as he matures (and hopefully regains success at the plate).

Agree with you on the mental aspect possibly, probably, carrying over to the field and causing him to maybe not being as focused and/or trying to make up for his offense on defense plays and being too aggressive with throws.

 

Also Baez is considered to have pretty good range and a strong arm, right? So maybe he's ranging for balls a good amount of ss don't even get to and having to make hard(er) throws with is range/confidence in his arm?

 

I mean I assume he's not like Theriot where he has a noodle arm and can only make it to balls a few steps either way and basically can't make any throws going into the hole/on the backhand and then is committing an error on more routine ground balls?

 

If only we had beat writers who cared to up date us on our top prospects when they see one has so many errors with their connections to the FO and see what their pov is. Instead they'd just attribute it to the brown guys not hustling, being hot heads and being mentally soft or not gritty (white) or something.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Cubswin11

[Guest]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future.

 

Scouts are routinely wrong about a lot of things, and the whole point is that his value decreases as he goes down the defensive spectrum. You can say "the bat will play anywhere" all you want, but the position matters.

 

Yeah, but I don't see him ending up anywhere further down said spectrum than 3B or 2B...so that bat (if it pans out - which is the only way he'd pan out as a player) is going to play really well regardless. If he ended up having to move to LF or something, that'd obviously be a bummer.

 

And I'd like to think there's something to Tim's theory.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future.

 

Scouts are routinely wrong about a lot of things, and the whole point is that his value decreases as he goes down the defensive spectrum. You can say "the bat will play anywhere" all you want, but the position matters.

 

Yeah, but I don't see him ending up anywhere further down said spectrum than 3B or 2B...so that bat (if it pans out - which is the only way he'd pan out as a player) is going to play really well regardless. If he ended up having to move to LF or something, that'd obviously be a bummer.

 

And I'd like to think there's something to Tim's theory.

 

Well then I think it is either disingenuous or a mistake to say you honestly couldn't care any less about all those errors. If you care about the guy's development, you should care about where he can play. And the bat playing well thing isn't a black or white scenario. There is a gray area where a lot of his weaknesses could carry over throughout his career with his talent/ability allowing him to stick. It's not like he's either going to be a superstar or flame out in AA.

[Guest]

I just honestly couldn't care any less about the errors. If scouts felt that, after last year, he could handle SS long term, I don't see him suddenly being unable to handle a position further down the spectrum in the future.

 

Scouts are routinely wrong about a lot of things, and the whole point is that his value decreases as he goes down the defensive spectrum. You can say "the bat will play anywhere" all you want, but the position matters.

 

Yeah, but I don't see him ending up anywhere further down said spectrum than 3B or 2B...so that bat (if it pans out - which is the only way he'd pan out as a player) is going to play really well regardless. If he ended up having to move to LF or something, that'd obviously be a bummer.

 

And I'd like to think there's something to Tim's theory.

 

Well then I think it is either disingenuous or a mistake to say you honestly couldn't care any less about all those errors. If you care about the guy's development, you should care about where he can play. And the bat playing well thing isn't a black or white scenario. There is a gray area where a lot of his weaknesses could carry over throughout his career with his talent/ability allowing him to stick. It's not like he's either going to be a superstar or flame out in AA.

 

I get what you're saying and I definitely thought about it when making that post... but a lot of people really do see him that way.

 

I'm not suggesting that it makes a whole lot of sense or means anything to say that about a player... but that's pretty much what McLeod said about him, IIRC.

[jersey cubs fan]

I get what you're saying and I definitely thought about it when making that post... but a lot of people really do see him that way.

 

I'm not suggesting that it makes a whole lot of sense or means anything to say that about a player... but that's pretty much what McLeod said about him, IIRC.

 

What people have said is that he could still be a superstar, or he could flame out in AA. But that does not preclude him from being something in the middle.

[jersey cubs fan]

At the very least, his value as a prospect, and therefore as a trading chip, is going to be partially dependent on whether or not he can stick at SS. A season full of errors at obscene rates is going to leave his trade value lower than a season where he was solid. Cubs fans should care about such things.

[rawaction]

Not sure what the number of errors everyone else has has to do with Baez. It can still be on Geiger. 2b can play deeper, miss a ball and make a much shorter/easier throw to 1b for an out. And 3b doesn't get near the same number of chances that a SS gets. And then u gotta consider the extra range giving Baez more chances to make errors.

 

That being said, there's no excuse for the error total being that high. If your 1b sucks, adjust. If u are frustrated at the plate, get over it in the field. If he can't play the position, he can't play it but I think it is a combination of alk those factors and more. I'm worried about it, but not seriously unless he's up to 40-50 errors in July. From all accounts he has the ability to finish the year on a strong note and maybe only make 7-10 more the rest of the season (similar pace to last year), which eould make his early season issues a nonfactor.

[craig]

....What people have said is that he could still be a superstar, or he could flame out in AA. But that does not preclude him from being something in the middle.

 

Yes. It looks somewhat doubtful that he's going to be the superstar .950-OPS gold-glove SS, and it's still possible that he'll never make it. But there's still a very huge chance that he'll up somewhere in the huge landscape in between.

 

Right now he's a .306-OBP guy with enough slugging to be high .700's OPS. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he made the majors being that same general kind of guy: somebody who falls in the .750-.800 OPS range, with a low OBP.

 

Suppose, hypothetically, he matures into a .270/.310/.770 guy in the majors. With good defense, that makes a good 2B/SS; an average LF that a good team might like to upgrade; and with 70 errors (or 30..) a guy even the worst team is trying to replace.

[scarey]

Based on the one game I watched him live at last year (in other words, grain of salt and all that), I thought he was a naturally fantastic defender with incredible range and arm strength... but VERY mechanically unsound. He made a lot of off balance throw and his approach to the ball was always to cut directly to the route of the ball and field on the fly rather than round on the route to put himself in a good fielding/throwing position.

 

I have to wonder if he is working on proper mechanics. I would think that if you tell the guy to take a different approach, it's going to mess with him if it's not naturally what he's always done.

 

The other thing I noted about his fielding was that he doesn't like to give up on plays. Again, only one game, but I noticed him make several throws to first base that had no chance to get the runner. He even made a catch on a pop up to shallow center field that the centerfielder clearly should have made the play on. He didn't make any errors doing this, but I could easily see him rushing and throwing the ball away, or not transfering the ball to his throwing hand well, or just misfielding it.

 

Just a theory really.

[Guest]

even if you think he ends up at 3B or 2B, the errors still are relevent