Who do we trade and what do we expect in return?

[weis21]

For what it's worth (probably not much) - ESPN Jayson Stark chat:

 

Mari IL [via mobile]

 

Is garza out of chicago

 

Jayson Stark (1:07 PM)

 

Not yet! Buster and I are hearing different messages on Garza. He thinks the Cubs will trade him soon. I'm hearing that they'll hold him out there until they get their price, which might be a while. He's priced higher than any player on the market right now. That's what I'm hearing.

 

 

Craig (Seattle)

 

Jayson, what team do you see the best fit for Garza...Texas, Arizona, another team?

 

Jayson Stark (1:13 PM)

 

He makes sense for both of them -- and about a half-dozen other teams, too. He's pitching great right now, but teams are still a little fearful of his health history and his streakiness. So it might take the pressure of the deadline approaching for one of those clubs to give up what the Cubs are asking.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He makes sense for both of them -- and about a half-dozen other teams, too. He's pitching great right now, but teams are still a little fearful of his health history and his streakiness. So it might take the pressure of the deadline approaching for one of those clubs to give up what the Cubs are asking.

 

Our FO gets off on being withholding.

[USSoccer]

 

The potential returns for a guy who's having his first good season aren't probably more valuable to the Cubs than the guy himself could end up being.

 

You do realize that they will still have to at least attempt to put out a team going forward, right? Unless you think somehow the financial picture of the team will benefit from being gutter-awful for a few more years and they can just set up big screens showing minor league box scores and people will still show up.

 

But hey, by all means, if you think securing some teams' #15 prospect and some filler for him will somehow help the major league team be better, go for it.

Because that's what I'm saying.

 

From what I'm reading, you're pretty much saying "well you never know someone might crazily overpay". Which I guess is fine in theory but in reality the return on Travis Wood isn't likely to be all that high, which you're smart enough to know, and again, I think the front office should be held to a higher standard than just strip mining anything not pre-arb extended from the major league team to accumulate a bunch of prospects with a massive attrition rate.

[Guest]

 

The potential returns for a guy who's having his first good season aren't probably more valuable to the Cubs than the guy himself could end up being.

 

You do realize that they will still have to at least attempt to put out a team going forward, right? Unless you think somehow the financial picture of the team will benefit from being gutter-awful for a few more years and they can just set up big screens showing minor league box scores and people will still show up.

 

But hey, by all means, if you think securing some teams' #15 prospect and some filler for him will somehow help the major league team be better, go for it.

Because that's what I'm saying.

 

From what I'm reading, you're pretty much saying "well you never know someone might crazily overpay". Which I guess is fine in theory but in reality the return on Travis Wood isn't likely to be all that high, which you're smart enough to know, and again, I think the front office should be held to a higher standard than just strip mining anything not pre-arb extended from the major league team to accumulate a bunch of prospects with a massive attrition rate.

I was responding to N&G saying it's basically impossible to get more for Wood than he is worth to the Cubs. I've given plenty of reasons why that isn't necessarily the case. It doesn't have to be a crazy overpay for that statement to be incorrect.

 

The fundamental truth here is that Wood has more value to other certain other teams than he has to the Cubs right now. Other than not wanting to entirely punt this season, Wood's value to the Cubs is almost entirely based upon his future value.

 

Let's say that future value is the same for the Cubs and for other teams (which really depends on whether you feel the Cubs can contend next year). The difference between his value to the Cubs and to another team is that they could use him this year to help get them to the playoffs.

 

So, if they're willing to compensate the Cubs fairly for not only the future value that is likely equal between the two teams, but also for the playoff run this year, then we could very easily get more in return for Wood than what he is worth to the Cubs.

 

It doesn't have to be a "crazy overpay".

[Guest]

Can we maybe get an example of what a deal looks like that someone would make for Wood that makes the Cubs better for future seasons without making the immediate future(2014 particularly) a fair bit worse?

[sneakypower]

Skaggs & Davidson

 

but yeah, i don't really want to trade Wood

[Guest]

He makes sense for both of them -- and about a half-dozen other teams, too. He's pitching great right now, but teams are still a little fearful of his health history and his streakiness. So it might take the pressure of the deadline approaching for one of those clubs to give up what the Cubs are asking.

 

Our FO gets off on being withholding.

 

Nice.

[sneakypower]

Skaggs & Davidson

 

but yeah, i don't really want to trade Wood

actually i still don't like this too much

 

make that Skaggs & Eaton

[Castros trade value]

I don't like to overpay for anything.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

If the Cubs trade Garza to the Rangers, could it be Profar coming in return or do we need pitching for sure?

 

I ask because I'm not so sure Profar is viewed as elite by some in the game anymore, right or wrong.

 

No.

 

If you get time, could you expand on this further?

 

No, as in Profar can't be the piece coming back because the Rangers wouldn't give him up? Or no that we need pitching more so it wouldn't be him?

[Guest]

Can we maybe get an example of what a deal looks like that someone would make for Wood that makes the Cubs better for future seasons without making the immediate future(2014 particularly) a fair bit worse?

I think a fair estimation on Wood's true ability probably lies somewhere between his 3.51 FIP and 4.31 xFIP. Given the case I made to sneaky the other day on his HR rate, I believe that the truth lies closer to his xFIP. For the sake of argument, let's project him forward as a low cost, 4.0 - 4.1 ERA starting pitcher as a best guess.

 

You yourself have made the argument that our FO is very skilled at locating this type of pitcher on reasonable deals, so that means that the return for trading Wood doesn't have to necessarily be based on young pitching. However, I think that would certainly be the preference.

 

As for potential returns, some of the packages that you were talking about earlier would be starting points for conversations with various teams. If the return is higher upside but further away, then you are dependent on the FO's ability to find that 3-4 starter in the market at a reasonable price.

 

The Diamondbacks are the target that everyone wants to sell pitching, because their rotation is way underperforming and they have near-major league ready pitching to give in return.

[Guest]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

[Guest]

Skaggs & Davidson

 

but yeah, i don't really want to trade Wood

You have much more confidence than I do that he has some weird ability to have an sustainable, incredibly low HR/FB rate on non pop ups.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

[USSoccer]

Skaggs & Davidson

 

but yeah, i don't really want to trade Wood

You have much more confidence than I do that he has some weird ability to have an sustainable, incredibly low HR/FB rate on non pop ups.

 

You have more confidence than I do that any pitching prospect we end up getting back will end up better than Travis Wood is.

[Sammy Sofa]

Skaggs & Davidson

 

but yeah, i don't really want to trade Wood

You have much more confidence than I do that he has some weird ability to have an sustainable, incredibly low HR/FB rate on non pop ups.

 

Wood obviously has a broad spectrum of usefulness to the Cubs; he doesn't have to be this good to be very valuable.

[Guest]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

Not sure if that's a true representation of the scouting community: https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/348213814107463680

[Guest]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

Not sure if that's a true representation of the scouting community: https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/348213814107463680

 

Reminds me of the story that quoted a scout saying he preferred Tim Saunders to Javier Baez.

[Guest]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

I think that column is a whole lot of stupid.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

Not sure if that's a true representation of the scouting community: https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/348213814107463680

 

Reminds me of the story that quoted a scout saying he preferred Tim Saunders to Javier Baez.

 

Not sure if this is what you're referring to, but it's great: http://www.mariettatimes.com/page/content.detail/id/544652/Sports-Talk--Saunders-better-than-Correa.html?nav=5026

[RammyFanny]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

I think that column is a whole lot of stupid.

http://media.star-telegram.com/images/columnists/galloway100.png

[Guest]

Profar won't be traded for a short term asset like Garza. I mean, never say never and all, but every indication is that Profar would only be dealt for a guy who will be a difference maker for several seasons. Short of trading Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija, the Cubs don't have that.

 

I read recently in a column by Randy Galloway that a lot of scouts no longer think Profar is a superstar and that his upside is that of a good player rather than an elite one.

 

If Garza really is the crown jewel of the trading deadline, I don't think it's crazy to think Profar could be traded for him provided that's the true thinking on him.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/06/21/4953944/major-league-exposure-has-hurt.html

 

Not sure if that's a true representation of the scouting community: https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/348213814107463680

 

Reminds me of the story that quoted a scout saying he preferred Tim Saunders to Javier Baez.

 

Not sure if this is what you're referring to, but it's great: http://www.mariettatimes.com/page/content.detail/id/544652/Sports-Talk--Saunders-better-than-Correa.html?nav=5026

 

Nah, there was a story that quoted a scout from a rival team who said he preferred Saunders to Baez and that Baez and Soler were overrated.

[Guest]

 

Nah, there was a story that quoted a scout from a rival team who said he preferred Saunders to Baez and that Baez and Soler were overrated.

 

The Scouts’ Corner

 

One of the perks of covering a minor league team at the ballpark is meeting scouts from several other organizations. There were about a half a dozen scouting the Kane County series, and a majority of them had just come from the Florida State League. Here is what they had to say about some of the Cubs’ prospects.

They spoke at great length about Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and, unfortunately, confirmed just about every red flag that has ever been mentioned about them. One NL East scout emphatically said that the Cubs should stop ‘fooling around’ and move Baez to third base. He reported that Baez loses concentration in the field and can’t make routine plays. Baez has good hands and a strong arm, but little else defensively. Baez’s power and speed are considered on the plus side, but that he is now “Hollywooding” after going to the big league camp, and not hustling on the basepaths. His relationship with the other players isn’t the best, running hot and cold.

One scout reported that he saw the incident that Soler got into (Soler was suspended earlier for a bat-swinging incident) and said that if he was in their system, he would have stayed in Arizona for the rest of the season in order to ‘grow up’. Another said that Soler ‘was paid about 29 million too much’. All agreed that Soler has tremendous defensive ability, but that he is lazy. Soler is also reported to have a very bad attitude, glaring at the umpires every time they call a strike on him, trying their patience. Of the two, they like Baez’s power better, saying that Soler is more of a line drive hitter.

 

Drawing the biggest raves from Daytona were John Andreoli and Ben Carhart. An AL scout said that Andreoli has ‘all the tools’ to play any of the outfield positions, good speed, great base-running instincts, and a solid approach at the plate. Carhart is a solid contact-line driver hitter and grades out very well at third, and can also play second and first base. All of the scouts also had a lot of good things to say about Tim Saunders, and felt that he was the best shortstop on the team (Daytona). They also said that while Stephen Bruno wasn’t playing when they were there, he grades out best at third base.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2013/05/cubs-down-on-the-farm-report-052813.php#.UdchUPmbPcw

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the Cubs trade Garza to the Rangers, could it be Profar coming in return or do we need pitching for sure?

 

I ask because I'm not so sure Profar is viewed as elite by some in the game anymore, right or wrong.

 

No.

 

If you get time, could you expand on this further?

 

No, as in Profar can't be the piece coming back because the Rangers wouldn't give him up? Or no that we need pitching more so it wouldn't be him?

 

Profar isn't coming back from the Rangers for Garza.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Profar's not happening, Mike Olt has pretty much died... who could you get from the Rangers right now? Grimm?