Who do we trade and what do we expect in return?

[Castros trade value]

I disagree with everyone.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not sure where any of these conversations are, so randomly putting in some thoughts:

 

a) I don't love Schoop/Rodriguez. Actually, I'm just not huge on Schoop. He's an "upside" guy who really hasn't put together the offensive performance. Had that been our Garza package, I would've been ... eh.

 

b) As for Wood, I've never been huge on him, but I do think we could probably net a decent return if we moved him now. I doubt we'll see that happen.

 

c) Of the 5 teams rumored, the only two that seem appealing (and possible ... for example, I doubt we could get Aaron Sanchez or Trevor Bauer from the Blue Jays/Indians) would be the Red Sox and Rangers. The preference would be the Sox on my part, because of their depth of right handed and left handed pitching options to choose from, with several in the upper levels. I've just never liked the current Rangers pitching prospects that much.

Edited July 6, 2013 by toonsterwu

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, duh, how could anybody ever forget that?

If you're being sarcastic, my post was meant as a comment to sneaky.

 

If you're being serious, then you'll see I wasn't really throwing a strawman out there. I was simply making a comment to sneaky about how he and I value Wood differently based on his projected ability to sustain a crazy HR/FB ratio.

 

I am serious; I don't think Wood's current performance is sustainable and I think he's more valuable to the Cubs as a Cub than what they could get trading for him.

okay - wasn't quite what I meant by if you're being serious, but I'll respond to this.

 

Why is Wood more valuable to the Cubs based on future value than he is to another team where he would be worth the same future value (perhaps more if they are more likely to contend in 2014, also), but significantly more present value, as well?

 

Do you disagree the Wood is more valuable to other teams than the Cubs? Or do you not believe the front office has a chance to receive fair compensation for the value Wood would provide to the trade partner?

 

The simplistic answer is that I think Wood is a good enough pitcher (coupled with his age and control time) to be valuable to the Cubs, but not good enough to bring back enough of a haul to justify moving him. It's less about the FO's ability and more that he just doesn't cross the tipping point where you can get the worthwhile return for trading him. I don't think anyone is saying they should turn it down if someone offered a ridiculously good deal; the argument is that it's so unlikely to be offered anything even resembling that in the first place. Punting 2015 isn't acceptable in any way, and trading of Wood makes their already shaking pitching lineup that much worse, so you REALLY have to be getting something good to move him.

[Guest]

lol, just a compound fracture, eh Bruce?

 

Steve (chicago)

 

how worried are the cubs brass about the Soler injury?

Bruce Levine (1:11 PM)

 

I don't have any info on how worried they are but it's just a compound fracture. Doctors I have talked say that should heal. Epstein expects Soler to be playing in the Arizona Fall League in October.

 

Ha. Someone should give Bruce a compound fracture of the lower leg, it'd be an edifying experience for him.

I'm pretty sure it wasn't a compound fracture, either.

Compound fracture, stress fracture, same family of ailment.

 

A compound fracture would be like when willis mcgahee broke his leg in that bowl game. The bone completely breaks and punctures the skin.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

No clue if at all relevant but Skaggs is dominating the Rockies tonight (6IP 1H 0R 0BB 5K). I'd definitely take a Garza / Skaggs swap at this point, though it doesn't sound like the D'backs are on Garza anyway.

[Guest]

Compound fracture, stress fracture, same family of ailment.

 

A compound fracture would be like when willis mcgahee broke his leg in that bowl game. The bone completely breaks and punctures the skin.

 

I think you missed the joke.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The odds are greatly against anyone willing to give up anything resembling a "top prospect" for Travis Wood. That's a pipe dream. Let it die.

 

You're probably right, but we've certainly got the guys to pull a rabbit out of a hat. You never know who's in need at thd deadline, how in need they are, what they had to offer, and what they're willing to give up. Maybe we can get ou hands on a broken prospect, or even a guy who's simply blocked.

 

Even if we were offered some variation of Arodys Vizcaino and a few more high ceiling pieces in exchange for Wood and a bucket of spare parts, would it be worth it?

[Sammy Sofa]

That would not happen.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, I really don't think we're getting Arodys and a couple more high ceiling pieces for Travis Wood. If we were offered that, I'd go for it.

[Guest]

I'd guess that Wood has significantly more value than Maholm did at this point last year. However, I was shocked that we got Arodys for Maholm. So I have no idea what a team would give up.

[Sammy Sofa]

Guys, nobody is going to drive a Lambo filled with cash up to your house, ring your doorbell and hand you the keys, but what this book presupposes is...maybe they will.

[Sammy Sofa]

And given Vizcaino's current track, I would say that Travis Wood would hold more value as a Cub to the Cubs than trading for the next Vizcaino.

[Guest]

And given Vizcaino's current track, I would say that Travis Wood would hold more value as a Cub to the Cubs than trading for the next Vizcaino.

 

You can't judge that trade and whether you'd make others like it so heavily based on the fact that you managed to have one of the worst possible outcomes thus far.

[Sammy Sofa]

And given Vizcaino's current track, I would say that Travis Wood would hold more value as a Cub to the Cubs than trading for the next Vizcaino.

 

You can't judge that trade and whether you'd make others like it so heavily based on the fact that you managed to have one of the worst possible outcomes thus far.

 

Sure I can; that there was a distinct possibility of this happening the way it has was one of the main reasons they even got a guy like Vizcaino in a deal like that in the first place. I don't fault them for making the move, and I still think Vizcaino could be useful, but you were trading away a guy who was going to be gone anyway in Maholm. If you're trading away Wood, at his age and with his team control, I'd expect something better than the Vizcaino return...but he's in that gray area talent and history-wise where it's tremendously unlikely you'd get something better in return. At the same time, he's valuable enough that I wouldn't want them settling for something like the Vizcaino trade.

 

It's a situation where you have people simultaneously overvaluing and undervaluing Travis Wood, sometimes practically in the same breath.

[USSoccer]

And given Vizcaino's current track, I would say that Travis Wood would hold more value as a Cub to the Cubs than trading for the next Vizcaino.

 

You can't judge that trade and whether you'd make others like it so heavily based on the fact that you managed to have one of the worst possible outcomes thus far.

 

I'm not sure that it was an unexpected outcome, though.

[Guest]

N&G, you still haven't responded to a lot of the points I've made. I'm curious about your answers to the questions I asked directly of you earlier.

[Guest]

And given Vizcaino's current track, I would say that Travis Wood would hold more value as a Cub to the Cubs than trading for the next Vizcaino.

 

You can't judge that trade and whether you'd make others like it so heavily based on the fact that you managed to have one of the worst possible outcomes thus far.

 

Sure I can; that there was a distinct possibility of this happening the way it has was one of the main reasons they even got a guy like Vizcaino in a deal like that in the first place. I don't fault them for making the move, and I still think Vizcaino could be useful, but you were trading away a guy who was going to be gone anyway in Maholm. If you're trading away Wood, at his age and with his team control, I'd expect something better than the Vizcaino return...but he's in that gray area talent and history-wise where it's tremendously unlikely you'd get something better in return. At the same time, he's valuable enough that I wouldn't want them settling for something like the Vizcaino trade.

 

It's a situation where you have people simultaneously overvaluing and undervaluing Travis Wood, sometimes practically in the same breath.

 

No, you can't. You knew that their was a significant chance that this would be the outcome when the move was made and the fact that it actually did happen doesn't mean it's any more likely to have happened than you knew it was going in.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes, I can very easily judge a trade made for a high ceiling/high risk prospect for a starting pitcher having a good year who was only signed through the end of the season as being exactly what it was. There was no great subterfuge or trickery or trade dominance going on at the hands of either FO.

 

I mean, I'm not "judging" it in the sense of saying it was a bad move.

[Castros trade value]

We should trade Shark while his value is high. He does not appear willing to sign a deal with the state of the current club. Sell high!!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd guess that Wood has significantly more value than Maholm did at this point last year. However, I was shocked that we got Arodys for Maholm. So I have no idea what a team would give up.

 

Turns out we and the prospect rankings were maybe overestimating Vizcaino's ability to stay healthy.

[NOLA]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/22663180/dodgers-getting-close-to-trade-for-ricky-nolasco

 

 

If completed, the deal would have the Dodgers sending three minor-league players to the Marlins. The Dodgers are expected to take on all the remaining money on Nolasco's $11.5 million 2013 salary

.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Rumored minor leaguers going to the Marlins are Stephen Ames, Josh Wall, and Angel Sanchez.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd guess that Wood has significantly more value than Maholm did at this point last year. However, I was shocked that we got Arodys for Maholm. So I have no idea what a team would give up.

 

Turns out we and the prospect rankings were maybe overestimating Vizcaino's ability to stay healthy.

 

Right; the perspective of that trade should be less "wow, if the Cubs got that for Maholm then they should be able to get even better for Wood" and look at is a move reflective of both sides understanding the risk involved with a player like Vizcaino.

[CubsWin]

Rumored minor leaguers going to the Marlins are Stephen Ames, Josh Wall, and Angel Sanchez.

That's what you can expect to get when the pitcher's not that good and you're asking the other team to take on all his remaining salary. Those guys are basically just live bodies.

[Guest]

Rumored minor leaguers going to the Marlins are Stephen Ames, Josh Wall, and Angel Sanchez.

 

Blech.