Variance/Reasons for Optimism?

[Guest]

It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources. That said, the 3 teams in our division that are ahead of us are very likely to stay that way. It may be unpopular to say, but I could see Theo blowing this thing up very early, so not to give too much of a "fools gold" type hope. It'd benefit us more longterm anyway.

 

I was going to post something similar to yours because it's obvious that the plan is still to trade off assets at the deadline. Obviously some of the biggest reasons for our positive variance numbers will be traded (Feldman, DeJesus, Garza, Gregg, Russell, etc.), so we can only hope that the return for any player(s) traded will be solid prospects for the future. With that many players possibly being dealt, it's hard to make any predictions about next year based on the variance numbers for this year.

 

Well, I assume no one expects Gregg to be as good next year. Predicting a decline for DeJesus also wouldn't be unexpected.

[Guest]

Obviously some of the biggest reasons for our positive variance numbers will be traded (Feldman, DeJesus, Garza, Gregg, Russell, etc.)

 

How is Garza on of the "biggest reasons?" He's pitched in two games and was terrible in one of them.

 

the team is 1-1 in his starts so he's been worth 1 win

[Sammy Sofa]

Excellent.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cubs are No. 6 in the NL in runs/game.

 

I'm pretty sure they are now first in the NL in ISO.

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-cubs-better-than-we-think/

 

Did we catch this when it was posted?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Third-order Wins now have the Cubs as the 4th-best team in the NL.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Third-order Wins now have the Cubs as the 4th-best team in the NL.

 

Kind of funny that one 12-4 blowout moves them down to 7th best.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Third-order Wins now have the Cubs as the 4th-best team in the NL.

 

Kind of funny that one 12-4 blowout moves them down to 7th best.

 

Not that funny.

[Heisenberg]

Here's a reason for optimism. AT LEAST WE ARENT THE WHITE SOX... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 7 IN A ROW and counting.... :lol:

[Backtobanks]

Here's a reason for optimism. AT LEAST WE ARENT THE WHITE SOX... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 7 IN A ROW and counting.... :lol:

 

The secret is to start the season with low expectations.

[Little Slide Rooter]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

[Banedon]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

 

Pulling numbers out of my ass, I'd say 70% bullpen and 30% offense.

[SouthSideRyan]

Innings 1-3: .248/.305/.446, 93 Rs

Innings 4-6: .243/.289/.406, 73 Rs

Innings 7-9: .252/.312/.392, 66 Rs

 

League-wide there's a .055 drop in OPS from innings 1-6 to innings 7-9, so this is pretty much all bullpen/starters going too long.

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

Bruce's statement is exactly what I pointed out many pages back and was laughed at.

 

They're still not as bad as their record, but they're close.

[Sammy Sofa]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

Bruce's statement is exactly what I pointed out many pages back and was laughed at.

 

They're still not as bad as their record, but they're close.

 

You were laughed at for pointing out that the bullpen sucks? Somehow I doubt that.

[Banedon]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

Bruce's statement is exactly what I pointed out many pages back and was laughed at.

 

They're still not as bad as their record, but they're close.

 

Link plz.

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112: #Cubs have a plus-33 run differential in the first 5 innings of games this year. They're minus-33 from the sixth inning on.

 

This might shed some light.

 

So is that all the bullpen's fault, or is the offense falling off after the 6th as well?

Bruce's statement is exactly what I pointed out many pages back and was laughed at.

 

They're still not as bad as their record, but they're close.

 

Link plz.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=61950&start=25

[Sammy Sofa]

Hahahahahahahahaahaaaaah!

[Guest]

good job, now your post is being laughed at again

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Mineaswell lock this thread.

[dew1679666265]

The question now is, what do we do to make the bullpen better?

 

Clearly we don't want to hand out dumb, longterm contracts to inconsistent relievers. However, at the same time we probably don't want to rely mostly on unknowns (Fuji types) and minor leaguers. Will there be any consistently solid relievers (ala Bob Howry when Cubs signed him) that we could afford in FA? Is it worth trying to add some young pen arms in deadline trades (i.e. advanced arms that we can be fairly confident will be good)?

 

To me the bullpen is the hardest part of the team to fill because of the scarcity of reliable pen arms.

[Guest]

The question now is, what do we do to make the bullpen better?

 

Clearly we don't want to hand out dumb, longterm contracts to inconsistent relievers. However, at the same time we probably don't want to rely mostly on unknowns (Fuji types) and minor leaguers. Will there be any consistently solid relievers (ala Bob Howry when Cubs signed him) that we could afford in FA? Is it worth trying to add some young pen arms in deadline trades (i.e. advanced arms that we can be fairly confident will be good)?

 

To me the bullpen is the hardest part of the team to fill because of the scarcity of reliable pen arms.

One thing that may mitigate conditions slightly is to manage the bullpen better.

[dew1679666265]

One thing that may mitigate conditions slightly is to manage the bullpen better.

 

I agree that would help, but management has to find a way to give the manager (be it Sveum or someone else) more than 1-2 good options. I'm just wondering how/if they can do that.

[champaignchris]

Cubs first 20 games: 6-14, 3.05 runs scored a game, 6 blown saves.

 

Cubs last 72 games: 36-36, 4.4 runs per game, 12 blown saves.