Rizzo

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Why do I look at Rizzo's 22 homers, 37 doubles and .324 on-base percentage (impressive considering he's hitting .230) and still think that his first full season in the majors hasn't been quite as horrific as many think?

 

And, yes, I realize one of the answers is that I'm an idiot.

The big questions are whether his power will grow as he matures (it should), and whether the defensive adjustments made against him this year will cause him to have a permanently crappy BABIP (they may).

 

Would I be right in saying that as long as his power does mature a bit, that it will be more than OK to have a 30-homer, 40-double guy with an acceptable OBP and a bad batting average to go along with a solid glove in the field?

 

Sort of a better version of Carlos Pena, since Rizzo doesn't strike out quite as much?

[Guest]

Why do I look at Rizzo's 22 homers, 37 doubles and .324 on-base percentage (impressive considering he's hitting .230) and still think that his first full season in the majors hasn't been quite as horrific as many think?

 

And, yes, I realize one of the answers is that I'm an idiot.

The big questions are whether his power will grow as he matures (it should), and whether the defensive adjustments made against him this year will cause him to have a permanently crappy BABIP (they may).

 

Would I be right in saying that as long as his power does mature a bit, that it will be more than OK to have a 30-homer, 40-double guy with an acceptable OBP and a bad batting average to go along with a solid glove in the field?

 

Sort of a better version of Carlos Pena, since Rizzo doesn't strike out quite as much?

I'd guess that's pretty much a floor for Rizzo at this point.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Why do I look at Rizzo's 22 homers, 37 doubles and .324 on-base percentage (impressive considering he's hitting .230) and still think that his first full season in the majors hasn't been quite as horrific as many think?

 

And, yes, I realize one of the answers is that I'm an idiot.

The big questions are whether his power will grow as he matures (it should), and whether the defensive adjustments made against him this year will cause him to have a permanently crappy BABIP (they may).

 

Would I be right in saying that as long as his power does mature a bit, that it will be more than OK to have a 30-homer, 40-double guy with an acceptable OBP and a bad batting average to go along with a solid glove in the field?

 

Sort of a better version of Carlos Pena, since Rizzo doesn't strike out quite as much?

I'd guess that's pretty much a floor for Rizzo at this point.

 

Then I'll be happy.

 

Pena probably wasn't the best comparison by me, since he's never even had 30 doubles in a season.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Rizzo's babip is like .240 and his LD% is close to 20%. I don't think he'll ever hit .280, but .260/.350/.500 is still a realistic expectation for him going forward.

[Splendid Splinter]

Rizzo's babip is like .240 and his LD% is close to 20%. I don't think he'll ever hit .280, but .260/.350/.500 is still a realistic expectation for him going forward.

 

 

Could anyone tell me what his slash line would look like if his BABIP was at .300?

[Guest]

Roughly .280/.375/.475, about 6th or 7th among qualified 1Bs.

[neely crenshaw]

His numbers are ok especially with his defense. The problem is to speed along this rebuild we need a lot more. He can not be the 3-4 hitter on a contending team without a fairly significant improvement. Unless we are waiting for Baez to come up and be that guy, we have to sign or trade for a couple of true middle of the order bats, which will be expensive either in salary or loss of prospects.

[SABR Gamer]

His numbers are ok especially with his defense. The problem is to speed along this rebuild we need a lot more. He can not be the 3-4 hitter on a contending team without a fairly significant improvement. Unless we are waiting for Baez to come up and be that guy, we have to sign or trade for a couple of true middle of the order bats, which will be expensive either in salary or loss of prospects.

 

Guys who are 24 usually aren't as good as they are going to get.

[neely crenshaw]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

[SABR Gamer]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

 

This isn't 2001, we don't "need" Rizzo to be a 1.000 OPS guy.

[sneakypower]

a 1000 OPS for Rizzo is like a 7-8 win player

 

you're probably going to be disappointed

[jersey cubs fan]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

 

I am also not sure Rizzo will be a 1000 OPS player.

[treebird]

which of the national league's zero 1.000 ops players this year is everyone's favorite?

[XZero771679666304]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

 

This isn't 2001, we don't "need" Rizzo to be a 1.000 OPS guy.

 

Yeah, just for perspective, there are a grand total of two players with an OPS of 1.000 this year (Miggy and Davis) with Trout just a tick below. We don't need Rizzo to be Cabrera or Trout, which is a pretty good thing.

 

If Rizzo eventually settles anywhere into the .850-.950 OPS range, we'll be doing just fine.

[SouthSideRyan]

which of the national league's zero 1.000 ops players this year is everyone's favorite?

 

Hanley Ramirez, because holy [expletive] has anyone seen what Hanley Ramirez has done this year?

[Splendid Splinter]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

 

 

Just so you know... Only 2 guys in MLB right now this season have a 1.000 OPS or better. Miggy (1.092) and Chris Davis (1.001) with Trout close (.996). Goldschmidt is 4th with .962. Basically you're asking for a MVP caliber/top 5 offensively type player. Also why do we NEED him to be a 1.000 OPS guy again?

 

 

EDIT: XZero77 beat me to it

[jersey cubs fan]

which of the national league's zero 1.000 ops players this year is everyone's favorite?

 

Hanley Ramirez, because holy [expletive] has anyone seen what Hanley Ramirez has done this year?

 

I did not.

 

Nice season.

[Cubswin11]

But to what extent is "better" going to be? and how quickly will it happen. I certainly hope for a Goldschmidt like jump in stats where he went from .250 to .280 to .300 at 23 to 25. However his stats coming up were much more consistent than Rizzo's, and I'm not sure we've seen anything that says he'll ever be a .280-.300/1.000 ops guy which we need him to be.

We don't need him to be that. A 1.000 OPS is rare in the current MLB climate and is basically a unattainable benchmark to set for him. If he settles into a .260-.270/.350-.370/.450-.550 player he will be more than useful and likely a top 10 offensive player at his position assuming this current offensive climate continues. That's all we need him to be.

[sneakypower]

which of the national league's zero 1.000 ops players this year is everyone's favorite?

 

Hanley Ramirez, because holy [expletive] has anyone seen what Hanley Ramirez has done this year?

i'd rather not talk about it

[Cubswin11]

which of the national league's zero 1.000 ops players this year is everyone's favorite?

 

Hanley Ramirez, because holy [expletive] has anyone seen what Hanley Ramirez has done this year?

Yeah he's been unreal and playing like he use to. The .360+ BABIP doesn't hurt either.

[Soul]

The 2013 monthly splits for Anthony are what depress me the most.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=rizzoan01&year=2013&t=b#month

 

It just heads downhill and never comes back up.

[neely crenshaw]

1.000 was a generality like saying he needs to hit .300. It's crazy that I say 1.000 and I'm crazy someone else .950 and that's fine.

 

The idea is we need him to be better "IF" we want to speed up the re-building process. He was said to be a "generational" type talent at 1b. In my mind generational first baseman don't top out in the low .800's in ops. I know this is not what anyone expected. I simply said I didn't see much from the last year and a half that shows me he can be that type of hitter. A very good player-definitely. However, if he isn't the 3-4 hitter we planned on, we will have to buy or trade for 1.

I've said it many times this summer, we need a Votto, right now we have a LaRoche.

Certainly at 24 he can get better, but what I said was how quickly and how much better have a lot to do with how soon(or even if) we become contenders.

[Guest]

You have a very weird hangup with the word generational. I checked where that all started(since you've made literally half of the posts that use the word generational and Rizzo), and this is the post that has you in such a lather(and the only one that makes any claim of that type):

 

Everyone scoffs at the idea that Theo believes Rizzo is a generational talent, but he actually might be.

 

More to NYCFs point, if Rizzo were in the low .800s in OPS like you're forecasting here then he'd still be about a 4 win player. Not "generational", but a borderline all-star and well worth keeping in the heart of your order.

[Guest]

Well, Bryant could probably be moved to first if Lake, Soler, and Baez are all major leaguers.

[neely crenshaw]

Christ! Brandon Belt is putting up .829 Do you call him an all star at 1b?

On a contender low 800's won't cut it unless you had a stacked lineup of all hitters in that area.

 

Contenders:

StL have 4 guys .830 or above carpenter tops at .881

LA have Ramirez over 1.000 and puig at .946 plus Gonzalez right at .800

Atl has Freeman .893 Johnson and upton around .820

Pittsburgh has McCutcheon at .911

Cinn has Votto at .926 sin choo choo at .890 and Bruce at .811

 

AL Detroit has 5 guys above .750 with Cabrera over 1.000

Boston has 6 guys above .779 with Ortiz at .955

Oakland has Donaldson at .892 Moss at .857 and then Lowrie at .793 and Crisp at .772

Tampa has 6 guys between .746 and .834

Texas has 5 guys between .745 and .884 (Beltre)

 

So everyone but Tampa has a guy pushing .900 or better, and they trot out 6 guys who very good.

 

We have Scheirholtz at .773, Castillo at .746 and Rizzo at .734

Do you see a trend?

Low .800 ops as a number 3 guys will not cut it. I am not saying he can't be in the lineup but he can't be your big bat at that output if you want to contend.

Pittsburgh is the closest to our situation but they have that guy in the middle of the order that just rakes. We have no .300 hitters, no .800 ops guys and no 30 hr guys.

Even the dodgers with their loaded pitching staff did not take off until Puig and Ramirez got in the lineup and started hitting.

 

I am not dissing Rizzo, I am simply saying that if you think we can be a contender with our current lineup and Rizzo jumping up70- 80 points in OPS, your looney.

With out knowing who we might pick up, we would pretty much need to find 3-4 other guys beside Rizzo to put up .750 to .850 ops, or 1 guy who is close to .900 and have no one from this season fall off at all.