Might as well have a David Price thread

[davell]

Currently, if we kept everyone thats under contract for next year on our roster, we're looking at about 70 mill in payroll. If we have to stay at 110(hopefully not), adding Price and a Choo or Ellsbury would put us around 100. Leaving 10 mill for bullpen, extra SP depth, etc. Playoff team? Probably not, but it could project as a .500 type team. That said, I wonder if trading for a Brett Anderson makes more sense. He wouldn't cost us nearly as much in prospects, will be around 7 mill cheaper than Price next year, and would give us extra cash to go add one other pretty solid player. He's a health risk, but hell, all pitching is to an extent anyway. It may be a risk I'd take if it allowed me to keep Baez, Soler, and Almora.

[Tryptamine]

Price got shelled yet again tonight. His average fastball velocity is down from 95.5MPH to 93.6MPH. Between this and Stanton's constant injuries, I'm really souring on selling the farm for these guys.

[rawaction]

Currently, if we kept everyone thats under contract for next year on our roster, we're looking at about 70 mill in payroll. If we have to stay at 110(hopefully not), adding Price and a Choo or Ellsbury would put us around 100. Leaving 10 mill for bullpen, extra SP depth, etc. Playoff team? Probably not, but it could project as a .500 type team. That said, I wonder if trading for a Brett Anderson makes more sense. He wouldn't cost us nearly as much in prospects, will be around 7 mill cheaper than Price next year, and would give us extra cash to go add one other pretty solid player. He's a health risk, but hell, all pitching is to an extent anyway. It may be a risk I'd take if it allowed me to keep Baez, Soler, and Almora.

 

This team plus Price and Ellsbury and 10mil spent wisely would be a playoff contender, I think. Especially if u add some players for Garza and possibly Soriano.

[Guest]

Price left his start today due to a triceps strain.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Price left his start today due to a triceps strain.

 

His fastball velocity has been down 2.2 MPH from last year. A little bit of that might be early-season effect, but that's still noticeable.

 

Add it all up, and that does not sound good.

[KingCubsFan]

Price left his start today due to a triceps strain.

 

His fastball velocity has been down 2.2 MPH from last year. A little bit of that might be early-season effect, but that's still noticeable.

 

Add it all up, and that does not sound good.

Maybe not good for Price, but probably good for the Cubs.

[Cubswin11]

Price left his start today due to a triceps strain.

 

His fastball velocity has been down 2.2 MPH from last year. A little bit of that might be early-season effect, but that's still noticeable.

 

Add it all up, and that does not sound good.

Maybe not good for Price, but probably good for the Cubs.

How so?

[illiniguy]

Price left his start today due to a triceps strain.

 

His fastball velocity has been down 2.2 MPH from last year. A little bit of that might be early-season effect, but that's still noticeable.

 

Add it all up, and that does not sound good.

Maybe not good for Price, but probably good for the Cubs.

How so?

That it's happening before we traded for him?

[DrCub]

Currently, if we kept everyone thats under contract for next year on our roster, we're looking at about 70 mill in payroll. If we have to stay at 110(hopefully not), adding Price and a Choo or Ellsbury would put us around 100. Leaving 10 mill for bullpen, extra SP depth, etc. Playoff team? Probably not, but it could project as a .500 type team. That said, I wonder if trading for a Brett Anderson makes more sense. He wouldn't cost us nearly as much in prospects, will be around 7 mill cheaper than Price next year, and would give us extra cash to go add one other pretty solid player. He's a health risk, but hell, all pitching is to an extent anyway. It may be a risk I'd take if it allowed me to keep Baez, Soler, and Almora.

 

That's a playoff team for sure. The team currently assembled is a .500 team if given a decent bullpen. We currently stand at a -7 run differential. Of the 9 games our bullpen has blown, just converting just 33% of those puts us at .500 on the year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Currently, if we kept everyone thats under contract for next year on our roster, we're looking at about 70 mill in payroll. If we have to stay at 110(hopefully not), adding Price and a Choo or Ellsbury would put us around 100. Leaving 10 mill for bullpen, extra SP depth, etc. Playoff team? Probably not, but it could project as a .500 type team. That said, I wonder if trading for a Brett Anderson makes more sense. He wouldn't cost us nearly as much in prospects, will be around 7 mill cheaper than Price next year, and would give us extra cash to go add one other pretty solid player. He's a health risk, but hell, all pitching is to an extent anyway. It may be a risk I'd take if it allowed me to keep Baez, Soler, and Almora.

 

That's a playoff team for sure. The team currently assembled is a .500 team if given a decent bullpen. We currently stand at a -7 run differential. Of the 9 games our bullpen has blown, just converting just 33% of those puts us at .500 on the year.

 

I don't know if it's a flat-out playoff team. It's in the mix.

 

We're on pace for a -28 run differential right now. That's roughly a 78-win team (right where most people had them, incidentally).

 

Using updated ZIPS projects, replacing Villanueva with Price would be +3 wins, Soriano with Choo +4, and upgrading the bullpen to average would be +1 (yes, they've cost us more than that, but that's accounted for by using run differential and not raw win totals).

 

So by getting the best pitcher in baseball, the best available FA outfielder and magicking an average bullpen, you're still a couple wins short of a playoff projection.

[Guest]

An 86 win ZiPS projection is almost guaranteed projected for a playoff berth. The Nationals and Braves were the only NL teams projected for higher than that preseason, with 88 each.

 

That said, Price + Choo is probably not equal to Villanueva + Soriano + 7 wins, but that team is very much a playoff contender.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does ZIPS do team win projections? Can I see them? Google's not helping.

[Guest]

Does ZIPS do team win projections? Can I see them? Google's not helping.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-positional-power-rankings-wrap-up/

 

Cincinnati 86

St. Louis 84

Milwaukee 82

Pittsburgh 80

Chicago 78

 

Washington 88

Atlanta 88

Philadelphia 83

New York 74

Miami 68

 

Los Angeles 85

Arizona 84

San Francisco 84

Colorado 80

San Diego 78

 

For another point of reference, here's BP, CAIRO, and Vegas projections stacked against each other: http://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/2/13/3986514/2013-mlb-projected-standings

 

BP has 3 NL teams with > 86 wins, CAIRO has 5, and Vegas has 3 with 2 other 86 game winners.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

OK, I wondered where Cincinnati would have been.

[biittner77]

Does ZIPS do team win projections? Can I see them? Google's not helping.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-positional-power-rankings-wrap-up/

 

Cincinnati 86

St. Louis 84

Milwaukee 82

Pittsburgh 80

Chicago 78

 

Washington 88

Atlanta 88

Philadelphia 83

New York 74

Miami 68

 

Los Angeles 85

Arizona 84

San Francisco 84

Colorado 80

San Diego 78

 

For another point of reference, here's BP, CAIRO, and Vegas projections stacked against each other: http://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/2/13/3986514/2013-mlb-projected-standings

 

BP has 3 NL teams with > 86 wins, CAIRO has 5, and Vegas has 3 with 2 other 86 game winners.

 

That has them going 16 over .500 against the AL