Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

 

In order of likelihood of posting a 5-win season by 2016:

 

Baez, Alcantara, Bryant, Soler, Russell

 

I'm probably low on Bryant, but I'm not sold on his defense the way I am Baez and Alcantara's, and we already *know* Alcantara doesn't have BrettJackson-itis, which I'm worried about with Bryant and the massive K problems.

 

Alcantara I think is going to be underrated in this regard. He's got a chance to play really plus defense and add some value in baserunning, and leading off would give him a chance to get *tons* of plate appearances.

 

Something like 2013 Ben Zobrist with less OBP and more power.

 

This is pretty much my exact thinking...right down to Alcantara being the sneaky pick to do it.

 

I am also similarly oddly more confident in Javy than Bryant for no reason that I can pinpoint (as a hitter, that is...not just the positional adjustment).

[Cubswin11]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

Baez, Soler, Bryant, Alcantara, Russell

[mul21]

 

I am also similarly oddly more confident in Javy than Bryant for no reason that I can pinpoint (as a hitter, that is...not just the positional adjustment).

 

I think there's a tendency to feel that way because we've seen Javy struggle and then adjust whereas with KB, he's just destroyed everything from the get go at each stop and hasn't really had that obvious adjustment period. Not that he hasn't made adjustments, just that his numbers haven't reflected that down period that Javy's have.

[seanimal]

i get that soler doesn't play a premium defensive position so he'll get less of a war boost from that aspect of his game, but jesus [expletive] christ the guys who k almost 30% of the time are the ones you think are most likely to be 5-win players by '16??? BE SERIOUS. the answer is soler, all day long

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Addison Russell, duh.

[Sammy Sofa]

i get that soler doesn't play a premium defensive position so he'll get less of a war boost from that aspect of his game, but jesus [expletive] christ the guys who k almost 30% of the time are the ones you think are most likely to be 5-win players by '16??? BE SERIOUS. the answer is soler, all day long

 

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck YES.

[Guest]

i get that soler doesn't play a premium defensive position so he'll get less of a war boost from that aspect of his game, but jesus [expletive] christ the guys who k almost 30% of the time are the ones you think are most likely to be 5-win players by '16??? BE SERIOUS. the answer is soler, all day long

 

Yeah, Soler and Russell would be the most likely in my estimation.

[seanimal]

i get that soler doesn't play a premium defensive position so he'll get less of a war boost from that aspect of his game, but jesus [expletive] christ the guys who k almost 30% of the time are the ones you think are most likely to be 5-win players by '16??? BE SERIOUS. the answer is soler, all day long

 

Yeah, Soler and Russell would be the most likely in my estimation.

 

that it would likely be his rookie year is the reason i'm not considering russell, but i guess if everything works out for him and he's up by late next year, he's a dark horse for it

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Bryant, Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Russell.

 

Javy scares the hell out of me. And, I agree that Alcantara could be the sneaky 5-win guy, that other teams' fans look and say, "Wow, He is worth five wins?" I feel like he's already starting out with a guaranteed 2+ wins from defense and base running. And his bat seems legit, right now, at least more so than I thought it would.

 

If you asked me who had the best chance to be a 7-win player, then I go Javy, though. I am so interested to see him with the big boys, even though he frightens me.

[Andy]

There's really no combination of Bryant, Russell, Baez and Soler that could be posted in order of likelihood of badassery that I could really disagree with.

 

If I had to make a ranking, I guess I'd say Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler, Alcantara, with Bryant likely higher if not for his probable position switch to outfield. But I really like all five.

[Cubswin11]

Just wanted to post, our 24 year old 1B is likely going to come close to 5 fWAR this year. He's at 3.6 now.

[Guest]

Just wanted to post, our 24 year old 1B is likely going to come close to 5 fWAR this year. He's at 3.6 now.

 

Don't think I didn't realize that.

 

My post was more along the lines of which of these dudes is going to join Rizzo in being a huge badass.

[Cubswin11]

Just wanted to post, our 24 year old 1B is likely going to come close to 5 fWAR this year. He's at 3.6 now.

 

Don't think I didn't realize that.

 

My post was more along the lines of which of these dudes is going to join Rizzo in being a huge badass.

Oh I know, just wanted to point out that we already have a really good young player/remind everyone how awesome Rizzo has been this year. Already having Rizzo also mitigates the need a bit on how big of badasses Baez/Bryant/Soler/Russell need to become immediately to start putting a competitive team out there.

[davell]

I believe in Javy, it's him. He's our guy. Longterm, he's our best player.

 

The fucked up thing though, is I'd lay money on each of that group to become solid starters at even odds.

 

5 WAR season by 2016 though?

 

Alcantara, KB, Javy, Soler, Russell

[Guest]

Fangraphs did the Top 10 wildest swings of July: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-of-the-best-the-months-wildest-swings-4/

 

No Cubs hitters featured, but 2 Arrieta pitches are and a Rondon slider takes home the #1 spot.

 

Batter: Jayson Werth

Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Date: July 6

Location: 39.6 inches from center of zone

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/9WerthArrieta.gif

 

Batter: A.J. Pierzynski

Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Date: July 26

Location: 42.3 inches from center of zone

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/3PierzynskiArrieta1.gif

 

A point that always makes me laugh is that catchers should have a better understanding than anybody of how pitches are sequenced, so why are there regular catchers who go to the plate and act all undisciplined, when in theory they ought to know how they’re being approached? A.J. Pierzynski regularly runs extremely high swing rates because he thinks he understands what the pitchers are going to do. A.J. Pierzynski has a below-average career wRC+ because he doesn’t actually understand that.

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/3PierzynskiArrieta2.gif

 

A.J. Pierzynski swung so far over the top of the baseball that, if the baseball were an airplane and if the bat were another airplane, air traffic control would’ve been like, carry on, business as usual, no near-catastrophe here to speak of.

 

Batter: Matt Adams

Pitcher: Hector Rondon

Date: July 27

Location: 43.8 inches from center of zone

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/1AdamsRondon1.gif

 

I wouldn’t recommend that Matt Adams wear horizontal stripes anywhere on his body, but I suppose there are worse places than the calves, if we accept the necessity of stripes in the first place. Meanwhile, Rondon looks like one of those nasty alternative berry-flavored candy canes. We don’t need everything to be able to taste like everything. We can just have the traditional candy canes. We don’t need berry candy canes any more than we need berry pork. People who are that insistent on having something that tastes like berries can buy a different sort of berry snack. If they don’t like not having berry-flavored candy canes, tough [expletive], you shouldn’t be able to have everything you want. We’re making ourselves more and more insufferably entitled by the day. Look no further than berry-flavored candy canes.

 

Sometimes pitchers will look in to make sure that an uncaught third strike is successfully converted into an out. Other times the suddenly eligible baserunner is Matt Adams.

 

I also snipped out Sullivan's commentary on AJ standing in the catcher's box between pitches and commentary on the little girl falling in Rondon's pitch, both are worth your click.

[jersey cubs fan]

and commentary on the little girl falling in Rondon's pitch, both are worth your click.

 

The girl that jumped off the seat?

[Guest]

Correct.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

and commentary on the little girl falling in Rondon's pitch, both are worth your click.

 

 

First glance I didn't read it as "click"

[Guest]

[expletive] look at these poll options...are you [expletive] kidding me?

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/

[Guest]

I'm referring to the glaring omission btw...not javy

[seanimal]

[expletive] look at these poll options...are you [expletive] kidding me?

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/

 

no doubt in my mind kap came up with that list

[TruffleShuffle]

A.J. Pierzynski swung so far over the top of the baseball that, if the baseball were an airplane and if the bat were another airplane, air traffic control would’ve been like, carry on, business as usual, no near-catastrophe here to speak of.

 

ahahahaha this is great

[ConstableRabbit]

[expletive] look at these poll options...are you [expletive] kidding me?

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/

 

no doubt in my mind kap came up with that list

For those on mobile, can you explain?

[treebird]

[expletive] look at these poll options...are you [expletive] kidding me?

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/

 

no doubt in my mind kap came up with that list

For those on mobile, can you explain?

 

sosa isn't listed. kerry wood is.

[CubInOK]

[expletive] look at these poll options...are you [expletive] kidding me?

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/

 

no doubt in my mind kap came up with that list

For those on mobile, can you explain?

 

sosa isn't listed. kerry wood is.

I wanna vote Kris Bryant.