NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[SouthSideRyan]

As long as we're hating all over teams in public, Virginia's resume sucks.

[SouthSideRyan]

And can somebody sell me on Iowa State's resume? I'm not seeing it.

[bukie]

And can somebody sell me on Iowa State's resume? I'm not seeing it.

They didn't lose today, which is enough to separate them from this pack.

[Andy]

Agreed on both. I think I like ISU's more than you, but in a normal bubble year they wouldn't be sniffing the tournament. UVA's resume is absolute crap apart from their win over Duke.

[bukie]

I also think the crappy bubble might make the committee more likely to invite a good team from a weaker conference that screwed up its conference tournament (Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Denver, Memphis).

[SouthSideRyan]

I also think the crappy bubble might make the committee more likely to invite a good team from a weaker conference that screwed up its conference tournament (Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Denver, Memphis).

 

I just assumed the committee would foolishly put in Memphis regardless, and the more I scrutinize, the more I think it's not foolish at all. I'm now assuming there will be some total wtf team chosen from a crappy conference.

[bukie]

My 3rd round of picks:

 

NEXT 12 VOTE:

Ohio State

Florida

New Mexico

Marquette

Miami

Wisconsin

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

Oklahoma State

Arizona

Kansas State

St. Louis

 

LOW 8:

Florida Gulf Coast

Big West

Harvard

WAC

Southland

Iona

Valparaiso

South Dakota State

 

NEXT BEST:

Creighton

VCU

Notre Dame

Colorado State

Missouri

North Carolina

UNLV

UCLA

Butler

San Diego State

North Carolina State

Minnesota

 

CONSIDERATION:

Villanova

Colorado

Wichita State

Oregon

St. Mary's

Boise State

Middle Tennessee

Kentucky

La Salle

Iowa

Iowa State

Temple

California

Tennessee

Denver

Virginia

Akron

Alabama

Baylor

Mississippi

Air Force

Stanford

Maryland

Arkansas

Arizona State

 

[Vanilla Ice]

I actually like ISU's resume, in comparison to the bubble. 4 wins over certain tournament teams + sweep of Baylor + two 100+ losses.

 

I certainly think that compares well to a team like Kentucky that has 2 wins over certain tournament teams + one 100+ loss + 4 more lossses to teams not likely to make the tournament.

 

or La Salle with three wins over tournament teams and losses to Charlotte, Xavier, UMass, and Central Connecticut State.

[SouthSideRyan]

I actually like ISU's resume, in comparison to the bubble. 4 wins over certain tournament teams + sweep of Baylor + two 100+ losses.

 

I certainly think that compares well to a team like Kentucky that has 2 wins over certain tournament teams + one 100+ loss + 4 more lossses to teams not likely to make the tournament.

 

or La Salle with three wins over tournament teams and losses to Charlotte, Xavier, UMass, and Central Connecticut State.

 

Was that a subtle KU officiating reference? Because, I really should probably take that into effect.

[bukie]

Round 3 results...

 

Current S-Curve (30):

1. Indiana

2. Duke

3. Louisville

4. Gonzaga (WCC)

5. Kansas

6. Michigan State

7. Michigan

8. Georgetown

9. Miami

10. Ohio State

11. New Mexico

12. Florida

13. Marquette

14. Kansas State

15. Syracuse

16. Wisconsin

...

55. Davidson (SoCon)

56. Harvard (Ivy)

57. South Dakota State (Summit)

58. Iona (MAAC)

59. Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)

60. Big West (Pacific)

61. Big Sky (Weber State)

62. America East (Vermont)

63. James Madison (CAA)

64. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

65. MEAC (NC Central)

66. LIU Brooklyn (NEC)

67. SWAC (Southern)

68. Liberty (Big South)

 

Next 12 vote:

Arizona

Butler

Colorado State

Illinois

Notre Dame

North Carolina

Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

UCLA

UNLV

VCU

 

 

Other auto bids/potential one-bid leagues (7):

Valparaiso (Horizon)

MAC (Akron)

Creighton (MVC)

Belmont (OVC)

Bucknell (Patriot)

Southland (SF Austin)

WAC (Denver)

 

Remaining At-Large field (19):

Boise State

California

Cincinnati

Colorado

Iowa State

Kentucky

La Salle

Memphis

Minnesota

Missouri

North Carolina State

Oklahoma

Oregon

San Diego State

St. Mary's

Temple

Tennessee

Villanova

Wichita State

 

Off the board for now, but still in the conversation (4):

Baylor

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

Virginia

 

Out:

Air Force

Akron

Alabama

Arizona State

Arkansas

Denver

Maryland

Mississippi

Stanford

[bukie]

I figured 4 was good enough for additional consideration, but if anybody thinks we should consider anyone else, speak up (the next team in the list was Akron, actually).

 

Next step:

1) Bracket/pod the rest of the top 4 seeds and 14/15/16 seeds (yes, we're already up to 13 seeds at the bottom). Just do it in the discussion here.

2) Rank the next 12, but not your team (Illinois, Notre Dame, North Carolina)

3) Rank the remaining 26 teams that aren't ranked yet (7 auto bids, 19 at larges), but not your team (Oklahoma, UK). Top 8 will go into the last rank 12, bottom 8-10 (depending on where the clean break is in the numbers) will get slotted into 12/13 seeds, middle teams will get their own rank 8/10.

4) Discuss whether any teams off the board have done enough to get on the board.

[abuck1220]

And can somebody sell me on Iowa State's resume? I'm not seeing it.

 

i mean, it's not jaw droppingly great or anything but what currently on the outside team do you want to put ahead of them?

[pitchcs]

And can somebody sell me on Iowa State's resume? I'm not seeing it.

 

i mean, it's not jaw droppingly great or anything but what currently on the outside team do you want to put ahead of them?

 

Plus I think they easily pass the "eye test". COULD have beaten Kansas either time, WILL today.

 

Before yesterday had hit 13 straight Overs to the betting number. Shows me a team that can score to keep up with good teams and possibly spring a bigger sized upset.

[UK1679666180]

Has everyone's brackets been similar?

[bukie]

Has everyone's brackets been similar?

The first top 12 was similar, but this latest round had wildly variant answers. For the "next 12" selection, nobody had a score above 0.75 (1 is full agreement at the top), and I had to break a tie between Colorado State, Missouri and Minnesota (Colorado State won tiebreak due to being first in someone's ranking..and they tied for 8th in the rankings overall).

[Andy]

Working off of what UK posted, here's a possible podding:

 

1 Indiana vs 16 Liberty/MEAC - Dayton (Midwest)

1 Duke vs 16 Southern/James Madison - Lexington (East)

1 Gonzaga vs 16 LIU-Brooklyn - San Jose (West)

1 Louisville vs. 16 Western Kentucky - Lexington (South)

2 Kansas vs 15 America East (South) - Kansas City

2 Michigan vs. Big Sky (East) - Philly

2 Michigan St. vs 15 Florida Gulf Coast (West) - Auburn Hills

2 Georgetown vs 15 Big West (Midwest) - Austin, TX

3 Miami vs 14 Iona (Midwest) - Austin, TX

3 Ohio State vs 14 Harvard (South) - Dayton

3 New Mexico vs 14 South Dakota State (West) - Salt Lake City

3 Florida vs 14 Davidson (East) - Kansas City

4 Marquette (East) - Auburn Hills

4 Kansas State (West) - Salt Lake City

4 Syracuse (Midwest) - Philly

4 Wisconsin (South) - San Jose

 

Edited for Big West being in there twice

Edited March 15, 2013 by Andy

[SouthSideRyan]

I take comfort that non-Illinois fans have us slotted as a 7 seed at worst. I'd really like to avoid the 8-9, and right now I'm thinking we need to beat Indiana today to do it.

[bukie]

There's a little known unstated rule that the committee will never put both the MEAC and the SWAC representatives in the play-in game. With the MEAC imploding so badly they should donate their bid to the Great West, I have a feeling they'll get the short straw this season. Edited March 15, 2013 by bukie

[bukie]

I take comfort that non-Illinois fans have us slotted as a 7 seed at worst. I'd really like to avoid the 8-9, and right now I'm thinking we need to beat Indiana today to do it.

 

Illinois was the top team among the next 8

 

[Andy]

There's a little known unstated rule that the committee will never put both the MEAC and the SWAC representatives in the play-in game. With the MEAC imploding so badly they should donate their bid to the Great West, I have a feeling they'll get the short straw this season.

Yeah, that was my original thought. UK placed Southern in there, but I think they'll escape now.

 

Also, is there a reason UM wouldn't be in Auburn Hills?

[Andy]

I could easily see Georgetown grabbing Louisville's 1 seed if they win the Big East tournament.

[mul21]

I take comfort that non-Illinois fans have us slotted as a 7 seed at worst. I'd really like to avoid the 8-9, and right now I'm thinking we need to beat Indiana today to do it.

 

Illinois was the top team among the next 8

 

Then people aren't paying attention. I haven't had time to do anything the last couple of days, but St. Louis will be getting robbed with anything lower than a 4 seed. I think this bracket is bound to miss badly on them. If they win the A-10 tourney, I would be slightly surprised if they don't get bumped to the 3 line.

[SouthSideRyan]

Let's get Western Kentucky out of Lexington

[SouthSideRyan]

I take comfort that non-Illinois fans have us slotted as a 7 seed at worst. I'd really like to avoid the 8-9, and right now I'm thinking we need to beat Indiana today to do it.

 

Illinois was the top team among the next 8

 

Then people aren't paying attention. I haven't had time to do anything the last couple of days, but St. Louis will be getting robbed with anything lower than a 4 seed. I think this bracket is bound to miss badly on them. If they win the A-10 tourney, I would be slightly surprised if they don't get bumped to the 3 line.

 

The goal has never been to match the dumb decisions of the committee.

[bukie]

I take comfort that non-Illinois fans have us slotted as a 7 seed at worst. I'd really like to avoid the 8-9, and right now I'm thinking we need to beat Indiana today to do it.

 

Illinois was the top team among the next 8

 

Then people aren't paying attention. I haven't had time to do anything the last couple of days, but St. Louis will be getting robbed with anything lower than a 4 seed. I think this bracket is bound to miss badly on them. If they win the A-10 tourney, I would be slightly surprised if they don't get bumped to the 3 line.

St. Louis was in the last top 12, and so wasn't even in that vote. You're ranting about nothing.