NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[Vanilla Ice]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

I think they'll make it. No real logic behind that other than the committee does seem to like to reward such teams.

Plus they've got a top 10 NCSOS and a top 30 RPI

[UK1679666180]

Right now, I have MTSU as the 1st team out of the tourney. If Boise St., LaSalle, UK, and UT struggle. Boise St. plays SDST on Wednesday in SD and if they win, I think it locks them up. If UK loses to the winner of Ark/Vandy, they're out. Which would give Ole Miss a real good shot at making it to the SEC championship (since they already would have beaten Mizzou to get there). I think UT will have to make it to the SEC semis to lock their spot (assuming they'd be UF in the semis).

 

Assuming Butler beats Dayton, and if LaSalle can beat Butler, then LaSalle is locked at this point. If they lose to Butler, then it becomes a toss-up as far as MTSU sneaking in.

 

Currently, my 12 seeds consist of Belmont as the locked, Boise St., Lasalle, and UK playing UT for the play-in spot.

[abuck1220]

i'm surprised to see boise st behind iowa st in some of these projections. they seem to have a pretty good resume (if you buy the MWC being good).

[abuck1220]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

EDIT: Particularly, for example, Ole Miss.

 

wow, how did iona make it last year. rpi of 48, one top 50 win, four losses outside top 100.

[UK1679666180]

i'm surprised to see boise st behind iowa st in some of these projections. they seem to have a pretty good resume (if you buy the MWC being good).

 

They only have one solid road win vs. Creighton. They played MSU and some MWC teams well on the road but lost.

[bukie]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

[Guest]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

 

I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8.

[bukie]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

 

I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8.

And Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason, so instead of restructuring their tournament to include the top 8 remaining eligible teams, they made a bracket of 7 teams where 1 gets a bye, 2 plays 5, 3 plays 4 and 6 plays 7. I...have no idea.

[bukie]

And Liberty wins and might have the worst RPI to ever make the tourney.

Not even close. See: every SWAC champ.

[Tracer Bullet]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

 

I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8.

And Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason, so instead of restructuring their tournament to include the top 8 remaining eligible teams, they made a bracket of 7 teams where 1 gets a bye, 2 plays 5, 3 plays 4 and 6 plays 7. I...have no idea.

 

Seems reasonable if 6/7 is like the play-in game to face #1.

[SouthSideRyan]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

 

I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8.

And Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason, so instead of restructuring their tournament to include the top 8 remaining eligible teams, they made a bracket of 7 teams where 1 gets a bye, 2 plays 5, 3 plays 4 and 6 plays 7. I...have no idea.

 

Seems reasonable if 6/7 is like the play-in game to face #1.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_ACC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

 

This is one of my favorites for out-thinking yourself.

[bukie]

Five auto bids decided tonight:

#1 Gonzaga vs #2 Saint Mary's (Gonzaga 72%) in the WCC finals.

#4 Iona vs #6 Manhattan (Iona 63%) in the MAAC finals.

#1 Davidson vs #3 Charleston (Davidson 75%) in the SoCon finals.

#4 Florida International vs #6 Western Kentucky (50/50) in the Sun Belt finals.

#1 Northeastern vs #3 James Madison (Northeastern 54%) in the CAA finals.

 

Two more tourneys start up today:

-- MAC (KP #58 Akron is a 45.8% favorite)

-- MEAC (KP #153 NC-Central is a 34.5% favorite despite Norfolk State going 16-0 in conference)

[bukie]

Davidson wins the SoCon, Western Kentucky wins the Sun Belt, James Madison wins the CAA.

[hawkeyecub]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

EDIT: Particularly, for example, Ole Miss.

 

Iona had 5 top 100 wins though and a 5-3 record vs. such teams. MTSU is 2-3 and one of those wins is 99 right now.

[abuck1220]

don't really get why st mary's is considered a lock.

[bukie]

Iona wins the MAAC, Gonzaga wins the WCC.

[SouthSideRyan]

don't really get why st mary's is considered a lock.

 

They've beaten as many tourney teams as Penn State.

[Guest]

I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.

 

I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8.

And Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason, so instead of restructuring their tournament to include the top 8 remaining eligible teams, they made a bracket of 7 teams where 1 gets a bye, 2 plays 5, 3 plays 4 and 6 plays 7. I...have no idea.

 

According to wikipedia, they only have seven teams in the tournament because only seven are eligible.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_SWAC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

 

Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State each received one-year postseason bans in men’s basketball, thus not allowed to participate in the 2013 SWAC Tournament, due to failing to meet the NCAA's APR requirements.

[abuck1220]

don't really get why st mary's is considered a lock.

 

They've beaten as many tourney teams as Penn State.

 

four top 100 wins. two of them are byu and one of them is harvard (93).

 

i'll boldly predict they get left out.

[brinoch]

Indeed. Indeed.

[hawkeyecub]

don't really get why st mary's is considered a lock.

 

They've beaten as many tourney teams as Penn State.

 

Beating Creighton at home suddenly made them a near lock with most everyone.

[bukie]

I got 3 submissions so far, and will be looking for anyone else that wants to participate to submit by the end of the evening tonight. As usual I'll post my lists here for public analysis/ridicule so nobody thinks I'm rigging the numbers at all.

 

Once the lists are submitted, I'll start gathering "nitty gritty" info on the teams. My goal is to get info on both RPI and KP (since KP gives a level of detail that, say, Sagarin does not), but if I run out of time, which system would be everyone's preference? RPI is what is used by the committee itself, usually, but it's not a very good representation as to the actual quality of the teams, and this year's committee chair has publicly stated he uses KP for analysis.

[SouthSideRyan]

Bukie, what's the format for our initial lists?

 

And I vote KP, flawed as it may be, at least he doesn't have the freaking Mountain West as the best conference in the country.

[bukie]

1. Your team

2. At-large locks (up to 35, and not including Creighton and Gonzaga, since they are auto bids). Order is not important.

3. Other teams for consideration, unordered.

4. Your top 16 in order

 

As long as I can tell the order in the last list and there aren't more than 35 locks, it's good.

[bukie]

Bukie, what's the format for our initial lists?

 

And I vote KP, flawed as it may be, at least he doesn't have the freaking Mountain West as the best conference in the country.

The Mountain West, the best non-conference scheduling conference in the country.

 

Remember, the reason the RPI is so flawed is that 2/3 of the rating is based on what teams you play, and 1/3 is based on what you do.