Predict the 25-man roster on Opening Day

[neely crenshaw]

Kershaw also returned to pitch last season. He is also potentially the best pitcher in the national league and Garza is potentially a good starting pitcher. Not exactly the same. He has 4 straight years of starting 30 or more games. 3 straight years of 200 innings. His highest era was 2.91 over that span. For all his terrible injury problems last year, he had his most starts, and his 2nd lowest era.

I am not that smart but I'd guess they are thinking he'll start 30 games, throw 200 innings and have a sub 3 era.

[davell]

I was just looking at Kershaw objectively. I think he's a horse. Technically, in my eyes, I can question his health. Not like I would Garza, by any stretch, but a little. Yes, if you don't question Kershaw(as Goony said, they have 2) but 6 questions after that. Which is why its great to have numbers. As for Harang being the Cubs ace? He could also not be in our top 5. I'm a big believer in Shark, at this point. I'll be disappointed if he comes in under a 4 WAR season.

[Guest]

You might be surprised at how common that is if you're using that criteria. Just glancing at a couple of the teams with better projected rotations:

 

Washington has a steady starter(Gio), a couple guys coming off their first season of 160+ IP(Zimmerman, Detwiler), and a couple guys with big injury/durability questions(Strasburg, Haren). Their current 6th starter is "pray for rain".

 

Arizona has 2 steady starters(Kennedy, Cahill), a couple guys coming off their first season of 160+ IP(Corbin, Miley) and a guy with big injury/durability questions(McCarthy).

 

Atlanta has 2 steady starters(Maholm, 37 year old Hudson), and several guys yet to log a full MLB season(Beachy, Minor, Medlen)

 

There are a couple teams that do have several anchors in their rotation, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cincinnati, but they're not the norm.

 

LA? SD?

 

That right there is a list of most teams in the NL and the Cubs having one steady guy and most guys coming off injury or part-time duty still stands out to me. It's still got the potential to be on of the better staffs, but it's littered with wild cards and volatility.

 

Sorry, missed adding "like" with the several anchors sentence, the Dodgers would definitely qualify there(San Diego not so much). The point was that those that I listed are all already forecasted to be better than the Cubs this year. If you look at those projected similarly or worse you'll see even less certainty. The risk is already baked in to the projections, and the Cubs aren't exactly counting on getting 160 starts from 5 guys with the depth they have either.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll bring up again my argument that Cubs fans are a bit shellshocked by it being so long since normal baseball variance played out strongly in our favor over the course of a season.

[bukie]

I'll bring up again my argument that Cubs fans are a bit shellshocked by it being so long since normal baseball variance played out strongly in our favor over the course of a season.

1998?

[neely crenshaw]

Perhaps we are sheltered from what's good pitching also

We have a potentially solid staff, a strength of a not very good club right now but don't confuse that with being a great staff.

[KingCubsFan]

I'll bring up again my argument that Cubs fans are a bit shellshocked by it being so long since normal baseball variance played out strongly in our favor over the course of a season.

1998?

2008

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Perhaps we are sheltered from what's good pitching also

We have a potentially solid staff, a strength of a not very good club right now but don't confuse that with being a great staff.

 

No one said it was great.

[Guest]

I'll bring up again my argument that Cubs fans are a bit shellshocked by it being so long since normal baseball variance played out strongly in our favor over the course of a season.

1998?

2008

 

I mean... a lot of guys played well that year, but that team actually underperformed its pythag by a game. :-"

 

But 2008 was 5 years ago (and 1998 was 15)...

[SABR Gamer]

I'll bring up again my argument that Cubs fans are a bit shellshocked by it being so long since normal baseball variance played out strongly in our favor over the course of a season.

1998?

2008

 

I mean... a lot of guys played well that year, but that team actually underperformed its pythag by a game. :-"

 

But 2008 was 5 years ago (and 1998 was 15)...

 

 

Yeah, but we got way top end variance performance from Theriot, Edmonds, Harden, DeRo, Marmol, etc. Although, yeah we were legitimately really good. 1998 is the year that should be used as the positive variance example.

 

ETA: Fontenot, Reed Johnson, Dempster and to a lesser extent (although maybe not) Soto also all performed at the upper end of their variance potential.

 

LOL even Zambrano's bat was worth 1.4 wins that year.

[davell]

AZPhil predicted Stewart gets released, Vizcaino gets moved to 60 man DL and Lillibridge and Takahashi get added to 40 man. We know the starters, his bench is Navarro, Lillibridge, Clevenger, Hairston, and Sappelt. His pen is Marmol, Fujikawa, Russell, Camp, Bowden, Takahashi, and Rondon.

[XZero771679666304]

AZPhil predicted Stewart gets released, Vizcaino gets moved to 60 man DL and Lillibridge and Takahashi get added to 40 man. We know the starters, his bench is Navarro, Lillibridge, Clevenger, Hairston, and Sappelt. His pen is Marmol, Fujikawa, Russell, Camp, Bowden, Takahashi, and Rondon.

 

 

I don't see Clevenger making it, or Stewart being released. That pen looks like what I'd predict.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wouldn't mind seeing Clevenger make it. I think there's still some upside there.

 

Sveum's pretty much confirmed Lillibridge has been given a job, and now he's talking up Bogusevic as well. I'll try not to freak out about the possibility of getting stuck with both of them, despite one being bad enough.

 

I guess that means Sappelt isn't guaranteed a spot?

[davell]

Or Stewart. I could see Valbuena as the everyday 3B, with a bench of Navarro, Bogusevic, Lilkibridge, Hairston, and Sappelt.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

OK, so we've got the following that seem like essentially locks to me for the Opening Day roster:

 

Outfielders:

Soriano, DeJesus, Hairston, Schierholtz

 

Infielders:

Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo, Lillibridge

 

Catchers: Castillo, Navarro

 

Starters: Samardzija, Jackson, Wood, Villanueva, Feldman

 

Relievers:

Fujikawa, Russell, Marmol, Camp, Rondon

 

I'd resisted putting Rondon as a lock in the past, but he looks good enough and there's not a bunch of other bullpen guys knocking down the door or anything.

 

That's 21 spots.

 

Bowden is out of options and has been outrighted before, so he can't be sent down without going through irrevocable waivers and being given the option to elect for free agency. He's pitching reasonably well and nobody else is going nuts in the pen to take the spot, so I think that has to go to him. They don't seem to be stretching him out as previously discussed, so that's 22.

 

Ian Stewart apparently might start the season on the DL, so that's why he's not a lock, but if he's healthy he's almost surely No. 23. If he's not, Clevenger probably takes his place temporarily.

 

Bogusevic still has some non-zero chance of replacing Sappelt for the final OF spot, though I will rage with a thousand doom boners if that happens. One of them will be 24.

 

That just leaves the final spot, which seems very likely to be in the bullpen. You'd have to assume that would be between Rusin and Takahashi, both left-handed, otherwise Russell is the only lefty. I'd hate to see Cory Wade not given a shot, though, so maybe he can sneak in somewhere.

[davell]

I think McDonald has a shot in the OF. Rusin has been excellent, he's my guess for the last pen spot. I think Wade likely accepts an Iowa assignment and gets his shot at some point. Remotely interesting to me is why are they stretching out Takahashi? AZPhil wonders if they put him in a piggyback role with Baker, when he first comes back.

[jersey cubs fan]

Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan

Lillibridge is in. "No brainer" sez Sveum.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan

Lillibridge is in. "No brainer" sez Sveum.

 

He's been in since the first day of spring training.

[Guest]

Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan

Lillibridge is in. "No brainer" sez Sveum.

 

He's been in since the first day of spring training.

 

Does that make you feel better or worse?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does that make you feel better or worse?

 

Meh. Given what showed up in spring training and Stewart's injury, I can't even make a plausible roster that doesn't include him.

 

I really thought we were going to get some attention paid to the infield bench between December and February.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sorry your stupid dumb Ronnie Cedeno love for jerks didn't pan out.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sorry your stupid dumb Ronnie Cedeno love for jerks didn't pan out.

 

Me too, my friend. Me too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So now Darwin Barney has a good chance of opening the season on the DL, which throws the previously settled roster into some craziness.

 

Fortunately they are both short-term injuries, but two hurt infielders are really exposing the lack of depth in the infield (and fortunately it was the right two).

 

Our options on the 40-man are Vitters and Logan Watkins, with Lake hurt. I guess I could also see them reneging on Takahashi's bullpen spot temporarily so as to give that 40-man spot to an infield pickup.

[Cubswin11]

It's too bad Lake got hurt, I personally think he needs some more time, but would have been interesting to see what he could do given the opportunity to be the super utility guy for the first 2-3 weeks until Barney came back.

[davell]

Alberto Gonzalez is making the trip to Pittsburgh, in case Barney gets DL'd.