2014 Draft Discussion

[A New Era]

The world of draft scouting is trying to sour me on Kolek but I'd still want him at #4 if Jackson and the other 2 pitchers are taken. Theo has said you have to grow your own aces, well there's your chance with Kolek.

[Guest]

You guys are silly. Gordon is universally considered a Top 15 talent, if not Top 10, and he's a bat. In this draft at #4, that alone is room not to be angry about who gets taken. Imagine the immediate fury if they had taken Wacha or Stroman instead of Almora in 2012, or how pissed the Royals fans would've been for passing on Starling and taking Baez, Springer, or Fernandez in 2011. The 1st round of the MLB draft does not lend itself to immediate evaluation, unless you go way off the board Hayden Simpson style.

 

top 15 or 10 aren't exactly inspiring descriptions in the world of the mlb draft

 

i get that this draft really falls off after 3, but aside from turner (and hoffman), gordon is the last guy i'd want of the guys who have been talked about.

 

we can imagine those things, but we can also imagine just getting crappy players because there are a lot of those

 

TT is being too conservative. BA has Gordon at #7 (with Hoffman at #6), Kiley McDaniel has him at #4, MLB.com has him at #5 and PG's April 16th ranking had him at #9 (pre-Hoffman TJS [#4] and pre-Beede's [#6] second half implosion).

[davell]

I'll be pissed if Rodon or Aiken is there and we pass for any hitter. I was definitively in Kolek's camp, I won't be "happy" if we pass on him, but I won't get pissed either.

 

I WILL be pissed if we give full slot at 4 to any hitter other than Jackson, who I can at least reason out that he's worth it.

 

If we take Pentecost, Conforto, Schwarber(not seeing us connected, just an example), I want us far under slot.

 

I can probably find a reason to be happy with 10-15 options at 4 though, depending on what's done afterwards.

[RammyFanny]

You guys are silly. Gordon is universally considered a Top 15 talent, if not Top 10, and he's a bat. In this draft at #4, that alone is room not to be angry about who gets taken. Imagine the immediate fury if they had taken Wacha or Stroman instead of Almora in 2012, or how pissed the Royals fans would've been for passing on Starling and taking Baez, Springer, or Fernandez in 2011. The 1st round of the MLB draft does not lend itself to immediate evaluation, unless you go way off the board Hayden Simpson style.

 

top 15 or 10 aren't exactly inspiring descriptions in the world of the mlb draft

 

i get that this draft really falls off after 3, but aside from turner (and hoffman), gordon is the last guy i'd want of the guys who have been talked about.

 

we can imagine those things, but we can also imagine just getting crappy players because there are a lot of those

 

TT is being too conservative. BA has Gordon at #7 (with Hoffman at #6), Kiley McDaniel has him at #4, MLB.com has him at #5 and PG's April 16th ranking had him at #9 (pre-Hoffman TJS [#4] and pre-Beede's [#6] second half implosion).

Law has him at 5 too. 4th on his personal rankings.

 

Chris Crawford just released his final rankings and has Gordon at #3.

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-final-2014-board-probably/

 

I'm perfectly fine with him. Plus to plus-plus defender/arm, advanced approach at the plate, showing more pop since he's added the weight. From the intel available, he's got pretty much everything you can ask for from a SS outside of plus-plus power, but let's be clear, it's not like he's Tony Campana up there either. I think we get a little spoiled expecting everyone to be Javy or KB.

[Tryptamine]

Sounds like the high school version of Trea Turner....

[Heisenberg]

Let Theo and Hoyer do their jobs guys. And you can't be pissed at anything until these guys come up to the major or are dealt for someone else. I hate when people get pissed on drafts where their team doesn't choose the player they want.

 

It'll all work out. Theo knows what he's doing.

[Guest]

Sounds like the high school version of Trea Turner....

 

Gordon doesn't need the swing overhaul Turner does. And Gordon has a better arm and sounds like the better defender.

[Tryptamine]

Sounds like the high school version of Trea Turner....

 

Gordon doesn't need the swing overhaul Turner does. And Gordon has a better arm and sounds like the better defender.

 

I really hope the Lindor comp is legit because I love him as a prospect, but it's really scary taking a guy at 4 whose bat upside is fairly minimal.

[Guest]

Sounds like the high school version of Trea Turner....

 

Gordon doesn't need the swing overhaul Turner does. And Gordon has a better arm and sounds like the better defender.

 

I really hope the Lindor comp is legit because I love him as a prospect, but it's really scary taking a guy at 4 whose bat upside is fairly minimal.

 

This top of this draft is crap; neither Aiken nor the 2014 version of Rodon would go ahead of any of the top 3 from last year.

[Heisenberg]

My wish list.

 

I know Aiken is going to be picked in the top 3, I can't see him being passed up by all 3.

 

1. Rodon

2. Jackson

3. Kolek

 

That would be who I'd want at #4.

[weis21]

Sounds like the high school version of Trea Turner....

 

Gordon doesn't need the swing overhaul Turner does. And Gordon has a better arm and sounds like the better defender.

Interesting that Crawford also likes him better as a pitcher:

 

Nick Gordon / SS-RHP / Olympia H.S. (Fla.) – While some (me) like Gordon better on the mound, there’s no denying that he’s a quality infield prospect with advanced defensive makeup and some power from the left side as well.

[UK1679666180]

Let me know if there's a report you want on any of these elite guys...

[Cubswin11]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Rodon

4A. Gordon

4B. Underslot guy (If the first 3 are gone I'd go Gordon unless they can find a guy willing to go under slot by a good margin)

Edited June 2, 2014 by Cubswin11

[Guest]

Aiken

Kolek

Rodon

Jackson

 

That's really as far as I need to go

[davell]

Let me know if there's a report you want on any of these elite guys...

 

If you can, how about Nola, Freeland, and Holmes?

[ScrubMD]

Defense sucks and all pitchers have arm AIDS, I want a guy that smacks homers.

[UK1679666180]

Let me know if there's a report you want on any of these elite guys...

 

If you can, how about Nola, Freeland, and Holmes?

 

Nola:

RHP

Height: 6-1

Weight: 196

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: June 4, 1993

College: Louisiana State

Hometown: Baton Rouge, La.

Previously Drafted: Blue Jays '11 (22)

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

The story early in 2014 has centered around some of the top college pitchers in the class, namely Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman, struggling to fully take a stranglehold on the top spot in the draft. But, then there is Aaron Nola, who doesn’t usually find himself in the discussion with those pitchers but simply keeps rolling on with dominant performance after dominant performance this spring. A picture of consistency, Nola has pitched himself right into the top ten overall picture and now has to be viewed as one of the most big league ready arms in the 2014 class.

 

We’ve repeated this type of sentiment many times in these Draft Focus profiles, but pitchers cut from the cloth that Nola is are in many ways forced to prove themselves at the collegiate level before they are given full credit for what they can do. Nola was an impressive high school pitcher, however, make no mistake about that. He showed an advanced pitching aptitude coming out of Catholic High School in Louisiana, and he certainly had some scouts in the region intrigued with his command and projectability.

 

Nola had a couple of breakout performances near the tail end of 2010 that really put him on the map, including at East Coast Pro and in Jupiter. Although his fastball velocity may not have leapt off the page at anyone, his performance stood out nonetheless. Perfect Game’s VP of Player Personnel, David Rawnsley, had this to say about Nola after his East Coast Pro performance:

 

“There is little question that Nola had the best changeup of any pitcher in Lakeland, with great arm speed and even better late life. He threw up to 92 mph with a loose and easy arm action that really projects.”

 

That report fairly succinctly paints the picture of what Nola was heading into the 2011 draft. His feel for his secondary pitches was advanced, and he coupled that with a sense that he’d continue to add weight and velocity with age.

 

Nola ended up as a 22nd round draft pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011, but it was somewhat obvious at the time that he was going to end up pitching at LSU. As it turns out, that decision is going to be pay off for him in a big way.

 

Nola found success almost immediately in his freshman year for the Tigers. He also showed his combination of swing and miss stuff and advanced command right out of the gate. In 89 2/3 innings of work, Nola fanned 89 batters while walking only seven, an outstanding ratio for any pitcher, let alone a freshman.

 

Following Kevin Gausman’s departure to the professional ranks, Nola ascended to the ace role for LSU, and ascend he did. The righthander posted a 1.57 ERA over 126 innings of work, allowing only 18 walks and 83 hits in that span. He also struck out 122 batters.

 

There has never been a real hiccup for Nola. He’s had as a stellar a college career as anyone could ask for. And, the numbers in 2014 have been absolutely staggering for Nola, and that may still be an understatement. In his first 64 innings over a span of nine starts, Nola has posted a 0.70 ERA, allowed just 31 hits, 13 walks and has struck out 84. He’s also holding hitters to a skimpy .143 batting average. In other words, he’s done exactly what scouts have looked to him to do and taken a firm grasp of being the pitcher they can count on to perform time in and time out.

 

But, things have changed since high school – Nola isn’t only about his performance. He has big league level stuff as well, and that shouldn’t be glossed over. Nola produces heavy life from a three-quarters, deceptive arm slot on a 90-93 mph fastball, and that fastball has been reaching 94-95 mph frequently this spring. With the way Nola can command his fastball, coupled with the movement he generates, you can round up on grading it.

 

Nola also shows good depth to his 78-81 mph curveball and can locate this pitch to both sides of the plate. And, the difference maker for him could be the changeup. A pitch he’s shown a good feel for his since high school, as we noted above, Nola has good arm-side fade to this pitch at 82-84 mph, and as with all his pitches, he knows how to command it expertly.

 

That’s how you define Aaron Nola – he can throw three big league offerings for quality strikes and he does so from a deceptive arm slot. And, his command is arguably better than anyone elses in the nation. That is a recipe for reaching the big leagues in a hurry. He may not have front of the rotation type upside, but there’s a whole lot of value is landing a very safe bet No. 3 type starter early in the first round.

 

Given his track record of success, there’s no reason to believe that the 6-foot-1 righthander won’t continue to roll along with dominant outings for the remainder of this spring. And, he’s going to continue to pitch in the spotlight against elite level competition, so he’ll have very little trouble getting decision makers to consistently take a long look at him. Yes, there are pitchers with more upside and frontline type stuff, but Nola’s polish puts him right in the same conversation as those pitchers. For that reason, we shouldn’t expect to see him outside of the top 10 overall picks come June

.

[UK1679666180]

From January:

 

Height: 6-3

Weight: 170

Bats/Throws: L-L

Birthdate: May 14, 1993

College: Evansville

Hometown: Denver, Colo.

Previously Drafted: Phillies '11 (35)

Projected Draft Round: 1-2

 

Summer collegiate baseball has evolved into a way of evening up the playing field for college players across the country. Players from all corners of the nation and from various conferences, large and small, are on the same field and looking to prove themselves to the very same scouts. The Cape Cod League is the highest level example of that, and Evansville’s Kyle Freeland is among the best examples of what a player can do to take advantage of that platform in recent memory.

 

Area scouts may have been well aware of Freeland’s potential, but a stellar summer on the Cape has him now squarely on the radar of scouting directors as one of the top lefthanders in the 2014 draft class.

 

A native of Denver, Colorado, one could see how Freeland has managed to stay somewhat under the radar until this past year. By no means was he completely unknown, however, as the Philadelphia Phillies drafted him in the 35th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. To say he’s come a long way since then, though, would be more than a significant understatement. Freeland elected to go pitch at the University Evansville, and from there we’d begin to see an evolution from him into the prospect he is today.

 

The best thing that can happen to a “cold weather pitcher” like Freeland is getting an opportunity to rack up innings and experience. He got just that at Evansville in his freshman season, as he was handed a full-time rotation slot and 91 innings of work to go along with it. Not yet the dynamic swing-and-miss pitcher he is today, Freeland struck out 70 batters in that span, while walking 22 and surrendering 92 hits. His 4.55 ERA was a solid, if not pedestrian total, but again it may be the innings that were most important in that freshman campaign.

 

The true coming out party for Freeland in college baseball could likely be traced back to his time spent in the Alaska League following his freshman season. Enjoying a summer season that included a string of over 30 straight scoreless innings, the 6-foot-3 lefthander ended up with a 5-1 record for the Anchorage Glacier Pilots, posting a 1.74 ERA and striking out 37 batters in 41 innings of work. He also earned rave reviews from coaches around the league for his plus slider and fastball that reached as high as 93 mph. Perfect Game’s post-summer Alaska League Top Prospect list named Freeland the league’s No. 6 prospect.

 

It seemed that Freeland had flipped a switch in Alaska, but whatever switch he flipped didn’t quite stay permanently on when he returned to Evansville for his sophomore season. While he continued to eat innings (93 1/3), he allowed 107 hits and posted a solid but not representative of his talent 4.34 ERA. And, the simple issue scouts in the region would point to was simply consistency.

 

Whatever happens to Kyle Freeland when the summer months rolls around, he certainly seems to do his best work there. Following up on his spectacular tour in the Alaska League, Freeland took it up yet another notch by steamrolling Cape Cod League competition in 2013. Suiting up the Hyannis Harbor Hawks, Freeland did not look the part of a pitcher who had just given up 107 hits in 93 innings for Evansville.

 

Freeland was impeccable in nearly every way and in multiple roles for Hyannis. He worked primarily as a starter, but also contributed in some very valuable, high leverage relief outings. Over nine appearances an 40 innings, Freeland fanned 48 batters, allowed 39 hits and walked only four.

 

So, exactly what did Freeland tap into to make the leap from talented but somewhat inconsistent lefthander in the spring to the dominant force he became over the summer? In terms of raw stuff, it’s easy to see how it equates to high levels of success. At his best, Freeland lives consistently at 90-92 mph, consistently topping at 93 mph. Out of the bullpen, he’s capable of sitting at 92-93 mph. And, his gangly frame only figures to add strength, which could lead to some further projection. From his three-quarters arm slot, Freeland generates what amounts to a heavy fastball that is difficult to read out of his hand.

 

Speaking of that arm angle, it’s a key component to both how difficult Freeland can be to hit and what helped him make such strides in the summer of 2013. Upon first viewing Freeland with Hyannis, what I saw was a pitcher of varying arm angles, sometimes down to a more true low three-quarters slot. He was a pitcher that looked like a future reliever in the making, a highly effective one, but a reliever nonetheless. By the end of the summer, Freeland looked a lot less like that pitcher and very much like an arm you could see in a big league rotation. His slot, while still very difficult for hitters, was more consistent, and more repeatable, and his delivery much more under control than I had seen before.

 

That consistency isn’t going to do much to change the lively fastball that put Freeland on the map, but what it does do is allow him to be far more effective in commanding his secondary pitches. There’s a reason the Evansville standout walked just four batters all summer, and that was because he could turn to three different pitches he could throw for strikes.

 

The most notable of that arsenal is clearly his slider, which in a lot of ways acts as multiple pitches for Freeland. He throws it anywhere between 80-87 mph, and yes that is a very wide range. Early in the summer, he’d vary his angle with it, and late in the summer it would simply serve as a wide variation for him. The 80-82 mph variation has a sweeping action and is a pitch he used more frequently against lefthanded batters. He became very adept at spotting the 84-87 mph variation on each side of the plate to righties, and the downward tilt on that offering is that makes it a true plus pitch for Freeland.

 

The icing on the cake for Freeland was the evolution of his changeup. Still a pitch that he only needed to use sparsely on the Cape, it became still a very important weapon to combat righthanded batters. Thrown anywhere from 83-86 mph, this is more of the changeup you’ll see from the likes of CC Sabathia, which is to say it behaves more like a choked version of a two-seamer both in terms of differential and movement. He spots this pitch very well, and it has the look of a big league average offering in the making.

 

The lingering questions will still be in place for Freeland all spring despite all this. Scouts want to see him duplicate one of these superb summers over the course of an entire spring. But, there’s also a strong enough body of evidence in terms of mechanical improvements that Freeland has very likely turned a corner for good this time. If that’s the case, look for him to go off the board in the 25-40 overall range when Junes rolls around.

[Guest]

Where would Gausman have gone in this draft? 4th at worst?

 

Just trying to gage Nola a bit more.

Edited June 2, 2014 by pitchcs

[UK1679666180]

From Jan. as well...

 

 

Position: RHP

Height: 6-2

Weight: 200

Bats/Throws: L-R

Birthdate: March 22, 1996

High School: Conway

City, State: Conway, S.C.

Travel Team: EvoShield Canes

Commitment: Florida

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

While there is a deep and very talented group of high school pitchers in the Class of 2014, few if any have shown the consistency and durability of Grant Holmes leading up to this spring high school season.

 

Not only are Holmes performances consistently dominating, as one would expect out of a pitcher of his caliber, but the Perfect Game All-American’s stuff hardly changes from start to start, something few pitchers at any level can claim.

 

Holmes bumped his fastball up to 97 mph at the All-American Classic, an environment that invites spiking fastball velocities as each pitcher generally only throws one inning. But in WWBA tournaments pitching for the EvoShield Canes for the last year, he’s almost always in the 92-94 range, touching 95 when he wants it, with his fastball. The pitch gets heavy sinking life when down in the zone, making it almost impossible for a hitter to lift the ball even if he gets the barrel out and down to it in time. If there is a present fault with Holmes fastball, it’s that it lacks deception at times. His arm action in back is long and shows the ball and Holmes has a tendency to pitch up in the zone with his fastball, where it straightens out.

 

There is no real present fault to Holmes breaking ball. The pitch has caused much discussion among the Perfect Game scouts as to whether to label it a curveball or a slider and one is sure to hear it, irrelevantly, called both between now and the draft. We call it a curveball despite its low-80s velocity and frequent big sweeping shape, as Holmes distinctly comes over the ball on release like a standard curveball and will even throw it occasionally with a more of a downer 11-to-5 shape and similar depth. In fact, if Holmes learns to vary that break with intent and command, it will become a true elite level pitch. It’s close right now and when paired with the heavy 94 mph fastball, and gives Holmes two plus pitches he throws for strikes.

 

Holmes does throw a changeup in team events, although not at showcases, and it is still understandably a developing pitch in the mid-80s.

 

The durability factor is just as noteworthy as Holmes' consistency. Holmes has a very strong 6-foot-2, 200-pound build, although the listed height might be stretching it out a bit. He gets lots of his power and velocity from a low effort delivery that uses his strong hips and legs very well. This certainly contributes to the consistency of his stuff but also has led to Holmes consistently taking the ball and throwing four to five inning starts for the Canes during the summer and fall. Those longer stretched out starts are games that scouts want to see more than the shorter two or three inning outings that many top prospect level pitchers throw during the same time of year.

 

Holmes threw twice at the Perfect Game 17u World Series in the sweltering 110 degree heat in Arizona and won both a ring for the champion Canes and the trophy for the event’s Most Valuable Pitcher. He threw six innings, striking out 16 hitters while only allowing two hits and walking three batters. This scout saw him throw at five events last summer and fall and it was easily his most impressive performance.

 

When the Canes also won the WWBA World Championship, Holmes repeated his July routine under the bright lights of Jupiter, throwing two dominating innings on Thursday and four solid innings during a start early in the playoffs.

 

When the legion of scouting directors and cross-checkers travel to Conway, South Carolina this spring, it would be almost shocking if they didn’t see 92-94, touching 95-96 mph heat, with a plus low-80s breaking ball. And they will probably see a complete game victory as well – Holmes was 6-1, 0.40 with 88 strikeouts in 52 innings last spring. He profiles as a high innings, durable No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the future.

 

Of course, those who know the Holmes family aren’t surprised by the consistency at all. Holmes' brother Colby pitched for the two-time NCAA champion South Carolina Gamecocks for four years and is now in the Atlanta Braves system. He went 7-3, 3.69 as a sophomore, 7-2, 3.05 as a junior and 5-2, 3.76 as a senior. That’s about as consistent as it gets.

[Guest]

I like Nola. He's a strike thrower

[UK1679666180]

1)Aiken

2)Kolek

3)Jackson

4)Rodon

[Guest]

Defense sucks and all pitchers have arm AIDS, I want a guy that smacks homers.

 

indeed.

[Guest]

if Jackson is there, I want him.

[Guest]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Gordon

4. Rodon - pretty nervous about that shoulder