2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB 5m

Very comparable at same stage of career. @SUMOPDX: @MLBDraft Jackson's power and hit tool compared to Kris Bryant?

 

But Bryant was an 18th rounder at that stage of his career, so how the [expletive] are they very comparable?

 

No. He was a 1st rounder that fell strictly due to an extremely strong commitment. Toronto offered him 3 mill and he still went to school.

 

Was going to say that even if he was an overslot, it's not like he was gonna be a top 5 pick or something... If so, that's craziness.

 

Guess it worked out.

[davell]

@jimcallisMLB 5m

Very comparable at same stage of career. @SUMOPDX: @MLBDraft Jackson's power and hit tool compared to Kris Bryant?

 

But Bryant was an 18th rounder at that stage of his career, so how the [expletive] are they very comparable?

 

No. He was a 1st rounder that fell strictly due to an extremely strong commitment. Toronto offered him 3 mill and he still went to school.

 

Was going to say that even if he was an overslot, it's not like he was gonna be a top 5 pick or something... If so, that's craziness.

 

Guess it worked out.

 

Even then, there was no real sequence for when you took high end talent. Maples was a 1st round talent we drafted in the 14th. Dunston was a top 100ish type we got late(11th maybe?)

 

It would have needed to be like the Pirates did with Josh Bell. He was very adamant about going to school, but Pittsburgh took him early(2nd maybe?) and threw 5 mill at him. Which he took obviously.

 

I'm not thinking Bryant was a top 5 guy or anything, but he was definitely a 1st rounder. And in some cases, it's possible his stock dropped a bit due to less interest, with him almost definitely headed to college.

[Guest]

Bryant was a top 50 prospect (BA). He fell because teams knew he was going to college. Turned down 7-figures, as davell said.

[RammyFanny]

Chicago Cubs

First pick: 4

Bonus pool: $8.352M

 

System strength

 

Simply put, no system in baseball can match the offensive firepower that the Cubs potentially have with Javier Baez (No. 7), Kris Bryant (No. 15), Jorge Soler (No. 26) and Albert Almora (No. 28) all ranking in the top 30 of Law's top 100. Chicago also has Arismendy Alcantara (No. 71) and Jaimer Candelario in Law's top 10, giving the Cubs as much infield depth as any club.

 

System weaknesses

 

Chicago's pitching depth isn't among the worst in baseball, but the quality and quantity after C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson doesn't come anywhere close to what it has on the offensive side of the ball. The Cubs also don't appear to have a backstop of the future, with no catchers coming close to making the top 15 of the system.

 

Draft strategy

 

Ever since team president Theo Epstein arrived in Chicago in 2011, the Cubs have taken a best-player-available approach to their first selection, with no discernable bias toward the prep or collegiate ranks. They have been one of the organizations that have gone pitching-heavy in the top 10, as 15 of their top 10 picks over the past two years have been pitchers: seven in 2012 and eight in 2013.

 

Recent top picks

 

2013: Kris Bryant, 3B, No. 2

2012: Albert Almora, OF, No. 6

2011: Javier Baez, SS, No. 9

 

Notable No. 4 picks

 

1985: Barry Larkin, SS (70.2 WAR)

1986: Kevin Brown, RHP (68.3 WAR)

1973: Dave Winfield, OF (63.8 WAR)

 

Possible fits

 

Carlos Rodon | LHP, NC State: Even with the inconsistent season and the incredibly high pitch counts, it's difficult to imagine Rodon would drop out of the top five, and the Cubs would likely be thrilled to see his friendly face at pick No. 4.

 

Alex Jackson | C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego): While the Cubs would likely prefer an arm, they won't reach for one, and Jackson is one of the best offensive players in this year's draft with a chance to hit for average and power.

 

Tyler Kolek | RHP, Shepherd (Texas) HS: It's been a while since the Cubs took a prep hurler in the first round, but this could be the year that changes.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10942563/national-league-central-team-needs-targets-2014-mlb-draft

[PrimeTime]

If they go with Gordon that will be a real letdown. The farm is already stocked with infield depth. Gotta go with a pitcher or Jackson, if he falls to them.

[Tryptamine]

If they go with Gordon that will be a real letdown. The farm is already stocked with infield depth. Gotta go with a pitcher or Jackson, if he falls to them.

 

At this point, I think Gordon might be the single most disappointing pick that is realistic. You don't get a premium talent, you don't save any money, you just get a guy who likely would have been in the 10-15 range in last year's class.

[ScrubMD]

Yeah. Long way away, limited upside, no sexy In Play (Runs) to hold us over while we wait...Gordon seems incredibly uninspiring to me.

[Guest]

Did they really have to go all the way back to 1986 for a notable #4 pick?

[Guest]

Did they really have to go all the way back to 1986 for a notable #4 pick?

I'm partial to 1995.

[Guest]

Those are the top 3 by WAR. Since then you've had Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Dmitri Young, Gavin Floyd, and Ryan Zimmerman reach 10 bWAR.

 

EDIT: Which is a good illustration of the parity of the draft. To take another pick at random, #12, you've got Delino DeShields, Doug Glanville (!), Billy Wagner, Nomar, Adam Everett, Matt Morris, Brett Myers, Jared Weaver, and Jay Bruce in the same time frame.

[Guest]

Seriously, though, #4 seems a bit unlucky.

 

YEAR	TEAM	PLAYER	POS
2013	Twins	Kohl Stewart	RHP
2012	Orioles	Kevin Gausman	RHP
2011	Orioles	Dylan Bundy	RHP
2010	Royals	Christian Colon	SS
2009	Pirates	Tony Sanchez	C
2008	Orioles	Brian Matusz	LHP
2007	Pirates	Daniel Moskos	LHP
2006	Pirates	Brad Lincoln	RHP
2005	Nationals	Ryan Zimmerman	3B
2004	Devil Rays	Jeff Niemann	RHP
2003	Padres	Tim Stauffer	RHP
2002	Orioles	Adam Loewen	LHP
2001	Phillies	Gavin Floyd	RHP
2000	Royals	Mike Stodolka	LHP
1999	Diamondbacks	Corey Myers	SS
1998	Royals	Jeff Austin	RHP
1997	Giants	Jason Grilli	RHP
1996	Blue Jays	Billy Koch	RHP
1995	Cubs	Kerry Wood	RHP
1994	Brewers	Antone Williamson	3B
1993	Phillies	Wayne Gomes	RHP
1992	Orioles	Jeffrey Hammonds	OF
1991	Cardinals	Dmitri Young	3B/OF
1990	White Sox	Alex Fernandez	RHP
1989	Phillies	Jeff Jackson	OF
1988	Orioles	Gregg Olson	RHP
1987	Cubs	Mike Harkey	RHP
1986	Rangers	Kevin Brown	RHP
1985	Reds	Barry Larkin	SS

[Hrubes20]

Seriously, though, #4 seems a bit unlucky.

 

YEAR	TEAM	PLAYER	POS
2013	Twins	Kohl Stewart	RHP
2012	Orioles	Kevin Gausman	RHP
2011	Orioles	Dylan Bundy	RHP
2010	Royals	Christian Colon	SS
2009	Pirates	Tony Sanchez	C
2008	Orioles	Brian Matusz	LHP
2007	Pirates	Daniel Moskos	LHP
2006	Pirates	Brad Lincoln	RHP
2005	Nationals	Ryan Zimmerman	3B
2004	Devil Rays	Jeff Niemann	RHP
2003	Padres	Tim Stauffer	RHP
2002	Orioles	Adam Loewen	LHP
2001	Phillies	Gavin Floyd	RHP
2000	Royals	Mike Stodolka	LHP
1999	Diamondbacks	Corey Myers	SS
1998	Royals	Jeff Austin	RHP
1997	Giants	Jason Grilli	RHP
1996	Blue Jays	Billy Koch	RHP
1995	Cubs	Kerry Wood	RHP
1994	Brewers	Antone Williamson	3B
1993	Phillies	Wayne Gomes	RHP
1992	Orioles	Jeffrey Hammonds	OF
1991	Cardinals	Dmitri Young	3B/OF
1990	White Sox	Alex Fernandez	RHP
1989	Phillies	Jeff Jackson	OF
1988	Orioles	Gregg Olson	RHP
1987	Cubs	Mike Harkey	RHP
1986	Rangers	Kevin Brown	RHP
1985	Reds	Barry Larkin	SS

 

It doesn't help the perception of the #4 pick when the Pirates had 3 of the past 8 picks and reached quite considerably on each of them. Most had Tim Lincecum as the BPA when the Pirates took Brad Lincoln in 2006. Everyone had Matt Wieters as BPA when the Pirates took Daniel Moskos in 2007. Tony Sanchez was viewed as a late 1st rounder at best when the Pirates took him at 4 in 2009. Somewhat similar with Christian Colon and the Royals in 2010, although he was at least viewed as a legit top 15 option. Man, some terrible drafting FO's have had the 4th pick a lot.

[wekim81]

Even tho Raisin hates it - I'm still hoping for Nola at 4

[Guest]

You guys are oddly down on Gordon given he's rated about the same as guys you like such as Nola and Freeland.

[Guest]

Rick (Oakland)

What should the Cubs do in the draft if Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek go 1, 2, 3?

Klaw

I could see them taking someone like Conforto and cutting a decent deal, going under slot but not wildly so, then going after pitching with their next few selections. They could do the same with Aaron Nola, just figuring they'd be getting a surefire big leaguer who gets there quick even without the ceiling, but I don't know if they'd get a huge discount with Nola so likely to go 2-7.

 

Jerry (Chicago)

If the Cubs are going underslot at 4, why not just take Hoffman?

Klaw

What if they don't feel like a TJ guy is worth the risk?

 

nick (weed,CA)

When I see Kolek I see a guy destined for TJ. Everything he throws is max effort, does this thought scare teams away?

Klaw

Completely disagree on the max-effort part.

 

Cody (Mount Vernon)

Can you see a scenario where one of Aiken, Kolek, or Rodon gets to the Cubs and they pass?

Klaw

I could see them passing on Kolek but not the other two. Doesn't mean they will, just that they might. But I also have a hard time seeing Aiken or Rodon getting there.

 

Bret (Toronto)

I know they won't finalize until draft day, but can you see the Astros really choosing anyone besides Aiken? He may not be head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the class, but he seems to have universally solidified himself as 1-1.

Klaw

I could absolutely see them taking Rodon. I think it's pretty close between the two - and I know some of their decision-makers saw Rodon at his best.

 

Former Cubs draftee (13th rounder in 2011):

 

Adam (Phoenix)

Opinion on Mississippi States Jacob Lindgren?

Klaw

I don't know how any LHB ever hits him. You can't see the ball, and the slider is filthy. Granted, he's a reliever, with all the volatility that entails, but I'd take him in the second round and put him right in AA.

 

Ben (Leland Grove)

Could you envision Beede slipping out of the 1st round at this point?

Klaw

Absolutely. He was not good at all yesterday. And teams are concerned about the makeup.

 

Scrapper (Chicago)

You state in your draft profile that Tyler Kolek does not project to get much better but that he could be a top of the line starter. Does that mean that he might need less seasoning in the minors that most high school draftees?

Klaw

I didn't write the draft profiles - that was Chris Crawford - but I agree that you can't project more velocity or a better/harder slider. You're waiting on command, and I don't know anyone who can reliably predict when that'll get better.

 

Gus (Boston)

I read a mock that has Gordon falling to the Mets at 10. I know you had him going much higher, but could this be a possibility? The Mets need all the bats they can get in the minors.

Klaw

Zero chance.

Klaw

This is my problem with a lot of "mocks" - they aren't based on actual intel about who certain teams are on. I'd like to think I learned something from reading Jim Callis for years - when he says a team is on a certain player, you know it's true. And I've always strived to do it the way he does.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The repeated obsession with taking a guy at No. 4 overall whose pitching elbow recently tore in half causes me to lose all faith in baseball fandom.

[Gmoney08]

Am I the only one who wants Tyler Kolek number 4 over any position player and even Rodon.

 

Yes, i know he will probably blowout his elbow answering the phone call from Hoyer on draft night but his potential seems like too much to passup.

 

His age could be beneficial in him hitting the majors when the Cubs are finally decent in 2018.

[A New Era]

The repeated obsession with taking a guy at No. 4 overall whose pitching elbow recently tore in half causes me to lose all faith in baseball fandom.

 

You still had faith in baseball fandom?

[davell]

Am I the only one who wants Tyler Kolek number 4 over any position player and even Rodon.

 

Yes, i know he will probably blowout his elbow answering the phone call from Hoyer on draft night but his potential seems like too much to passup.

 

His age could be beneficial in him hitting the majors when the Cubs are finally decent in 2018.

 

It's all about command with him and whether or not it comes in and when it does Because his FB and slider aren't getting any faster anyway. Law or someone was talking about this the other day.

 

If he's there at 4, I'd jump on it, but I guess I get why a team wouldn't. If they don't see the potential there with the command.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Why is everyone so concerned about his command?

[RammyFanny]

I hate it when I start to like a pitcher and then the article shows a freeze frame of him throwing and his arm looks like some creature from Alien with veins ligaments popping out left and right.

[Guest]

Remember this guy? Figures he finally shows up in his last start of the season:

 

@KendallRogersPG: #Florida RHP Karsten Whitson has looked terrific the first three frames. Still 92-94, flashed a plus, hard, 86-87 SL in the third #MLBDraft

 

@KendallRogersPG: Brilliant, brilliant pitching by Karsten Whitson. Still sitting 92-94 on the radar gun with a plus SL. Has thrown five shutout innings.

[Guest]

Remember this guy? Figures he finally shows up in his last start of the season:

 

@KendallRogersPG: #Florida RHP Karsten Whitson has looked terrific the first three frames. Still 92-94, flashed a plus, hard, 86-87 SL in the third #MLBDraft

 

@KendallRogersPG: Brilliant, brilliant pitching by Karsten Whitson. Still sitting 92-94 on the radar gun with a plus SL. Has thrown five shutout innings.

Might be a good target in the second if we underslot the first.

[davell]

Remember this guy? Figures he finally shows up in his last start of the season:

 

@KendallRogersPG: #Florida RHP Karsten Whitson has looked terrific the first three frames. Still 92-94, flashed a plus, hard, 86-87 SL in the third #MLBDraft

 

@KendallRogersPG: Brilliant, brilliant pitching by Karsten Whitson. Still sitting 92-94 on the radar gun with a plus SL. Has thrown five shutout innings.

Might be a good target in the second if we underslot the first.

 

LOL

[Guest]

Remember this guy? Figures he finally shows up in his last start of the season:

 

@KendallRogersPG: #Florida RHP Karsten Whitson has looked terrific the first three frames. Still 92-94, flashed a plus, hard, 86-87 SL in the third #MLBDraft

 

@KendallRogersPG: Brilliant, brilliant pitching by Karsten Whitson. Still sitting 92-94 on the radar gun with a plus SL. Has thrown five shutout innings.

Might be a good target in the second if we underslot the first.

 

LOL

- don't think he'll make it there?

- don't think he'd be a good target?

- don't think he'd sign for what would be available?

- don't think we'll underslot enough?