Edwin Jackson Signs w/ Cubs: 4 years/$52 M

[Sammy Sofa]

Definitely Ellsbury.

[SABR Gamer]

 

Heh... I actually meant 2006, but, damned if that statement isn't still somewhat true.

The fact that his fielding was rated so strongly by Fangraphs, yet couldn't throw a ball into the infield on less than 12 bounces, makes me further question how "valuable" a player really is by WAR when it's driven by baserunning and defense. Bourn is OK, but this team needs offense and DeJesus had a higher wOBA last year.

 

That's why I tend to lean more towards BR.

 

Didn't bWAR have Barney as one of the most valuable players in the game for like a long time last year?

 

Maybe? Fangraphs still comes across as being way too generous way too often with their defensive metrics than BR.

 

I thought it was the other way around?

 

That's why Rizzo is worth 2.2 WAR on BR and only 1.8 WAR on FG, and Barney was a 4.6 WAR on BR and 2.5 WAR on FG.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, I'd argue both of those are better instances of upgrading a player's defensive stats since they're actually good defensive players and better than Juan Pierre, but that's not based on anything besides Juan Pierre being Juan Pierre. I fully cop to this just being a perception on my part and not based on any kind of proof that one is better than the other. Maybe it would be more accurate to say that "BR too often inflates the defensive metrics of players who are good defensively and Fangraphs too often inflates the metrics of players who are usually not very good defensively." Or maybe it wouldn't be.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Things are going to get very interesting if we do sign Jackson as well as Villanueva. We'll certainly shop Garza as well as Wood, and wait for someone to bowl us over with an insano package for Shark. There's also the little matter of the 40 man roster. We're running out of guys that we would't miss of claimed.

 

Depedning on whether we trade an existing starter, and how many, Rusin and/or Raley become immediate candiates. There's also Clevenger. If we need an emergency catcher, we can always find one when the time comes. Campana's the other option, but they seem rather attatched to him or he'd be gone by now.

 

I don't see any Garza trade happening while his health is still uncertain. There's no use selling that low.

 

But enough teams are in need of front end pitching without many FA options that someone could take the risk. We really missed the boat last winter, and I don't know if his value will go up much in the summer.

[Guest]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

[bukie]

Sources say Cub fans being teased again.

[Sammy Sofa]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

 

Well, the inconsistency has been due to injuries as opposed to just being bad, which is why I think some of us would prefer Ellsbury. He recovered pretty nicely in 2011. With Bourn you're likely getting more consistency, but it seems like Ellsbury's ceiling is higher if he can stay healthy.

[Guest]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

 

Well, the inconsistency has been due to injuries as opposed to just being bad, which is why I think some of us would prefer Ellsbury. He recovered pretty nicely in 2011.

 

Sure, but injuries also beget injuries too. Plus, with them being in the same career stage, and the hypothetical being that you give either of them a long term deal, why wouldn't you want the consistency.

[Sammy Sofa]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

 

Well, the inconsistency has been due to injuries as opposed to just being bad, which is why I think some of us would prefer Ellsbury. He recovered pretty nicely in 2011.

 

Sure, but injuries also beget injuries too. Plus, with them being in the same career stage, and the hypothetical being that you give either of them a long term deal, why wouldn't you want the consistency.

 

I'm aiming for the stars, dammit. That 8 WAR season is just something I can't turn away from.

 

Besides, wasn't his injury last year from running into someone else? Not saying it won't still effect him, but it's not like it was another in a string of chronic injuries based on mechanics or physical flaws or whatever.

[nilodnayr]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

 

Well, the inconsistency has been due to injuries as opposed to just being bad, which is why I think some of us would prefer Ellsbury. He recovered pretty nicely in 2011. With Bourn you're likely getting more consistency, but it seems like Ellsbury's ceiling is higher if he can stay healthy.

 

He consistently isoed ~120 his entire career, except for 2011, when it was 230. Look at his career other than 2011 and he is a 3 fwar guy. Now certainly you can't ignore 2011, but it wasn't a "recovery" because he had never played anywhere near that level in his life.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Holy [expletive] a ghost

[Sammy Sofa]

Would you rather have Bourn or Ellsbury on a longterm deal?

 

Neither. But if I had to pick, Ellsbury.

 

Bourn pretty easily for me. Only 10 months older, and far, far more consistent. Ellsbury has been < 2.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is coming off injury, Bourn hasn't been below 4 fWAR since 2008.

 

Well, the inconsistency has been due to injuries as opposed to just being bad, which is why I think some of us would prefer Ellsbury. He recovered pretty nicely in 2011. With Bourn you're likely getting more consistency, but it seems like Ellsbury's ceiling is higher if he can stay healthy.

 

He consistently isoed ~120 his entire career, except for 2011, when it was 230. Look at his career other than 2011 and he is a 3 fwar guy. Now certainly you can't ignore 2011, but it wasn't a "recovery" because he had never played anywhere near that level in his life.

 

Basically I'm looking at him as a solid guy if healthy with the potentially for much bigger things. Am I expecting 8-9 WAR season out of the guy? Of course not; but the possibility of being a 5-6 WAR player if he can stay healthy is enough for me to want him, plus with how highly the FO still seems to look at him.

[Tryptamine]

ABTY

 

2M buyout for a 5th year, 13M salary otherwise... Royals have called on Garza, Samardzija and Marmol (not in the same deal)... Padres offer on Samardzija likely to include Gyorko and also Adys Portillo...

[Guest]

More from ABTY:

 

Dunno what Wikipedia says but MLB has paperwork on both Villanueva and Jackson in their possession... Which makes them 95-99.9% done...

[BCVM22]

Gio Gonzalez congratulating Edwin on his "big deal today".

[SouthSideRyan]

Please don't trade Samardzija and make our 2014 rotation worse.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Please don't trade Samardzija and make our 2014 rotation worse.

 

I'd do it for Headley. But I don't think the Padres would.

[Brian]

I think the only way Theo/Jed take calls on Shark seriously is if it is a Rays/Royals level pillaging.

[Tryptamine]

Would Gyorko/Kelly/Portillo get it done for you guys? My instant reaction was no, but now I'm not as sure.

[sneakypower]

Ellsbury's 162G average is 16 HR (Bourn's is 4)

 

GIMME TACOBY

[SouthSideRyan]

Would Gyorko/Kelly/Portillo get it done for you guys? My instant reaction was no, but now I'm not as sure.

 

Nope

[BCVM22]

Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago is reporting Jackson is in the fold at four years, $52 million, pending a physical.

[gscool89]

RT @CSNMooney: #Cubs have signed Edwin Jackson (four years, $52 million) and Carlos Villanueva, pending physicals.

[Guest]

Would Gyorko/Kelly/Portillo get it done for you guys? My instant reaction was no, but now I'm not as sure.

 

As with the hypothetical Castro deals, if you're trading Samardzija and you aren't getting back at least 1 young player with some MLB success under his belt, you've already lost.

 

EDIT: So with the Royals, start with Moustakas/Duffy, with the Padres, start with Headley/Kelly

[BCVM22]

Rosenthal reporting the same.