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Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

CaliforniaRaisin

By CaliforniaRaisin,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

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Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112

Mark Prior to address #Cubs minor leaguers today

"If you see this man alert your local authorities immediately and find the nearest secure shelter! Pitchers especially heed this warning."

 

http://aeryssports.com/around-the-horn/files/2012/11/Baker_Dusty-254x300.jpg

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jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/chi-cubs-prior-20130117,0,2449043.story

 

“I do not know what the deal was when he left,” he said. “I don’t know if there were bad feelings. All I know is I reached out to him a little over a week ago, told him about the program and asked ‘Hey, would you mind coming in to talk to these guys?’ Honestly, I thought he was going to say ‘No, I don’t want to.’ But he was fired up about it, said ‘I’d love to come talk to those guys, tell them about my experiences.’
SouthSideRyan MVP

SouthSideRyan

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“Unfortunately, he couldn’t stay for the (Cubs Convention) because his daughter’s birthday is this weekend.”

 

Also, he didn't want mongoloid Cub fans booing him off the stage.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

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Is Prior officially done with his pursuit to make a comeback? If I remember correctly he had decent numbers in AAA for the Yankees last year, did he get hurt again?
treebird All-Star

treebird

Old-Timey Member
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“Unfortunately, he couldn’t stay for the (Cubs Convention) because his daughter’s birthday is this weekend.”

 

Also, he didn't want mongoloid Cub fans booing him off the stage.

 

a youtube video of mark prior getting booed off the stage at the cubs convention would go a long way towards severing me from the cubs forever

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
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The initial PECOTA forecats put the Cubs at 77 wins on the year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

That seems about right to me. However, if they make trades at the deadline it could be in the 60s again.

Agreed, seem pretty reasonable if everyone gets to their career averages. But I see the Cubs having a lot of variability with players this year that could get them back into the 60's real quick. Garza's health, can Samardzija repeat what he did last year in his second full season as a starter, do Castro/Rizzo hit any extended streaks of slumping due to a learning curve/development, is Soriano a 4-5 win player again or back to around replacement level, will the RF/CF platoons actually put out like the stats suggest they should, do we get sub replacement level out of 3B again. I know every team has questions, but it seems like the Cubs have have more or at least their questions have a pretty big range of variation.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
The initial PECOTA forecats put the Cubs at 77 wins on the year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

That seems about right to me. However, if they make trades at the deadline it could be in the 60s again.

Or they could make acquisitions at the deadline and be better.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
The initial PECOTA forecats put the Cubs at 77 wins on the year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

That seems about right to me. However, if they make trades at the deadline it could be in the 60s again.

Agreed, seem pretty reasonable if everyone gets to their career averages. But I see the Cubs having a lot of variability with players this year that could get them back into the 60's real quick. Garza's health, can Samardzija repeat what he did last year in his second full season as a starter, do Castro/Rizzo hit any extended streaks of slumping due to a learning curve/development, is Soriano a 4-5 win player again or back to around replacement level, will the RF/CF platoons actually put out like the stats suggest they should, do we get sub replacement level out of 3B again. I know every team has questions, but it seems like the Cubs have have more or at least their questions have a pretty big range of variation.

Do you have access to the projections? I'd imagine that they're already pretty conservative with things like Garza's health, Shark's projection, etc. There's definitely a lot of variance in the projection, but there's upside there, too. The 77 win projection isn't with everything going right.

hankp101 College Ball

hankp101

Verified Member
Posted
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Garza is projected for a pretty robust 180 innings, but PECOTA hates Shark, giving him the worst numbers of any of the potential starters. 195 innings to the tune of 4.56/1.38. Ouch
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
The initial PECOTA forecats put the Cubs at 77 wins on the year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

That seems about right to me. However, if they make trades at the deadline it could be in the 60s again.

Or they could make acquisitions at the deadline and be better.

That's not likely with the premiums paid.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Garza is projected for a pretty robust 180 innings, but PECOTA hates Shark, giving him the worst numbers of any of the potential starters. 195 innings to the tune of 4.56/1.38. Ouch

PECOTA doesn't like short histories.

MWV First Round Pick

MWV

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The lines I think you're referring to (the red lines) represent the season average numbers. The good/poor brackets are the same for both years.
treebird All-Star

treebird

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
BP's playoff odds are out. Cubs have a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs, 8.3% chance of making the Division Series and a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/399/502/960.jpg

 

"So, you are telling me there is a chance!" -- Jim Carrey, Dumb and Dumber :-) :-) :-)

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