Vote for #5 Prospect

[Guest]

How about this as a disqualifying criteria: He's spent multiple years pitching primarily in a professional league that is competitive rather than developmental.

 

I was going to come up with something like this... and add that he's over 25.

 

I was OK with Darvish being technically a prospect last offseason, but this is a bit crazy.

25 shouldn't be a good cut off.

 

Only for foreign players who have played in a league as advanced as Japan's NPB. I'm ok with it being a bit higher, I guess.

 

As long as the age cut off is only for those who plate in foreign professional leagues. You wouldn't want to disqualify older prospects developed here (for example, Josh Fields had the Cubs been able to draft him today).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wouldn't have called Darvish a prospect, either.

[Guest]

Hypothetical:

 

We draft Appel this June. He spends a couple years in the minors and looks ready to dominate in the majors in 2015, but gets an arm injury in ST. He's out that year and rehabs in the minors most of 2016 to regain strength - but looks fantastic. He comes up and gets a cup of coffee at the end of that year, but would still qualify for prospect lists.

 

To begin 2017, he'd be around 27 and wouldn't have any more developing left to do or anything to prove in the minors. Would he belong on a prospect list? Because he'd fail every criteria TT and sneaky just listed.

 

I think we're all able to make the distinction without jumping through qualifiers to make some rule. Fujikawa clearly is not a prospect, he was signed as a free agent, he's played in the highest professional league in another country for 6 years. He's 32 years old. The purpose of his acquisition is clearly different than the acquisition of someone like Villanueva, or Soler. There's no learning by putting him on a prospect list.

[toonsterwu]

I guess I'm okay either way. Personally, I'd leave Fujikawa off. A guy over 30 who has played professionally elsewhere really shouldn't be a rookie. That said, because he still qualifies as a major league rookie, as idiotic as that may be, he's still eligible for general prospect lists if people want to consider it.

 

The secondary problem is that a prospect list typically refers to a guy with the ability to get better/help long run. Taking the hypothetical Appel scenario, even if he comes up at 27, you've got the ability to run him out there for 3-4 years and hope that he is capable of helping long run. With the notes on Fujikawa's declining velocity and his age (Wei-Yin Chen had declining velocity but was far younger), it's hard to imagine him really helping long run or getting better. I guess nothing is impossible.

 

Anyhow, I'm okay either way.

[pitchcs]

I voted for him because he was listed, not because I think he's a prospect.

[treebird]

if we're counting fujikawa:

 

5) fujikawa

6) paniagua

7) maples

 

if we're not counting fujikawa:

 

5) paniagua

6) maples

7) vogelbach

[Little Slide Rooter]

5. Vogelbach: edged over Maples because he's a safer bet due to Maples health issues

6. Maples

7. Paniaqua

[Guest]

Fujikawa isn't going to win this round anyway, so I'll just remove him from consideration going forward. I'm afraid if I remove him from this list, everyone would have to re-vote.

[Guest]

btw - anyone who voted Fujikawa can change their vote from him to another player.

[SpongeWorthy]

Prospects are like porn.

 

Only weirdos consider Japanese performers the same.

[Cubswin11]

Prospects are like porn.

 

Only weirdos consider Japanese performers the same.

These are the kinds of posts that make me stick around NSBB

[Hairyducked Idiot]

btw - anyone who voted Fujikawa can change their vote from him to another player.

 

I'm changing my vote to Fujikawa as a protest for changing the rules mid-process.

[pitchcs]

5) Vogelbach

6) Candelario

7) BJax

[Vanilla Ice]

btw - anyone who voted Fujikawa can change their vote from him to another player.

 

I'm changing my vote to Fujikawa as a protest for changing the rules mid-process.

Kyle knows that once you establish a position, you can never change it.

[Tryptamine]

5) Vogelbach

6) BJax

7) Paniagua

[Bilbo161]

Vogelbach - awesome hit and power potential. I wanted him at #4.

Jackson - Lets hope he can rework that approach at bat and cut down the Ks.

Paniagua - Perhaps a bit early here but the guys arm sounds exciting.

 

Bill

[Bilbo161]

Should Hector Rondon our new rule five pickup be in the list?

[jumbo]

I went with

5 - Jackson

6 - Paniagua

7 - Vogelbach

 

I think Jackson can make some improvements to get his strikeouts closer to an acceptable level. He seems to have good ability to get on base, hit for power, play premium position defense, and runs well. That along with him being so close to the majors makes him too hard for me to push lower.

 

Paniagua seems like he has a longer track record of success due to all the attempts to sign him. This sort of makes up for the fact that he doesn't have a lot of history to review and analyze. The reports from Law are very encouraging to me and in a system somewhat devoid of pitching close to the majors

 

Vogelbach - Reasons are obvious and have been said here already

[Guest]

Surprised at how disparate the support for Paniagua and Johnson is.

[craig]

Vogelbach

Paniagua

Johnson

[Little Slide Rooter]

I wouldn't have called Darvish a prospect, either.

 

Couldn't it be viewed as somewhat of a slap in the face when Big Legue Teams acquire Japan's top professional players and refer to them as "prospects?" These guys have had successful careers, but to us they may as well have been playing for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Japan's number two, though a distant number two behind us in professional baseball. Kind of like if they were to have Bryan LaHair in their prospect rankings.

[SABR Gamer]

I wouldn't have called Darvish a prospect, either.

 

Couldn't it be viewed as somewhat of a slap in the face when Big Legue Teams acquire Japan's top professional players and refer to them as "prospects?" These guys have had successful careers, but to us they may as well have been playing for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Japan's number two, though a distant number two behind us in professional baseball. Kind of like if they were to have Bryan LaHair in their prospect rankings.

 

Or not at all.

[CubsWin]

I went Vogelbach at 5 because his ceiling is higher than anyone left and has achieved that ceiling in leagues in which he was age appropriate or younger with a decent sample size.

 

I voted for Jackson at 6 because he has performed well at higher levels, showed well in the majors in many areas and is still young enough to improve the holes in his swing.

 

At 7, I went with Villanueva because we know more about him than Paniagua or Maples. And what we know shows him to be a competent hitter with above average to plus defense at 3B who is still young enough to improve and has performed well at age appropriate levels and younger in the minors.

 

Paniagua, Johnson and Maples are likely in the next tier for me.

Edited December 7, 2012 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

I also agree with removing Fujikawa from the discussion largely because its counter-intuitive and just feels wrong. But if I had to create a logical argument it would revolve around his years of previous performance in a major professional league along with the fact that he was signed as a free agent with every intention of him going straight to the major league ball club.

[toonsterwu]

Should Hector Rondon our new rule five pickup be in the list?

 

IMO, not this high. Coming off injury, and his ceiling before, when wasn't huge either (mid-rotation at best, or late inning arm). I think he probably deserves to be listed as we get closer to the back end of the top 10, and my initial thought is that he's probably more a 15-25 guy in the system.