Cubs sign Scott Feldman

[SouthSideRyan]

Most of those guys make no money, leaving a theoretical Cubs team who cared about winning games with lots of money. And money can be exchanged for goods and services.

[sneakypower]

we'd expect to pay like an extra $150M PER YEAR on top of all other commitments to get those 30+ wins to put us back into immediate contention

 

you're essentially grousing incessantly and ceaselessly about our front office, because they're not being moronically reckless

[sneakypower]

if you really loved me, you'd buy me the great pyramids

[Guest]

inherited players under contract for 2013: Soriano, Garza, Castro, Marmol, Barney, Soto, Randy Wells, Shark, Castillo, Dewitt, Clevenger, James Russell (and Jackson, Vitters, ...)

 

that group of misfits just combined for 14(!) WAR this year, so the FO would just need to buy...33 more wins and we could possibly sneak our way into a wild card spot!

 

Now take out the players who had no business being on the roster to begin with and all their negative WAR.

 

That's 4 wins, and considering that even the Cardinals had 2 wins worth of negative WAR, I'm not sure that 0 is a reasonable expectation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

inherited players under contract for 2013: Soriano, Garza, Castro, Marmol, Barney, Soto, Randy Wells, Shark, Castillo, Dewitt, Clevenger, James Russell (and Jackson, Vitters, ...)

 

that group of misfits just combined for 14(!) WAR this year, so the FO would just need to buy...33 more wins and we could possibly sneak our way into a wild card spot!

 

Now take out the players who had no business being on the roster to begin with and all their negative WAR.

 

That's 4 wins, and considering that even the Cardinals had 2 wins worth of negative WAR, I'm not sure that 0 is a reasonable expectation.

 

I didn't mean every negative WAR player. Just the ones they should have known better.

[SouthSideRyan]

we'd expect to pay like an extra $150M PER YEAR on top of all other commitments to get those 30+ wins to put us back into immediate contention

 

you're essentially grousing incessantly and ceaselessly about our front office, because they're not being moronically reckless

 

Is within 3 years = immediate contention?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

[sneakypower]

so, about those 33 wins that we talked about earlier, that we'd have to buy to catapult ourselves into contention...

 

the most efficient way of doing it, paired with this roster (so, obviously assuming no more than 2 OF and 3 SP) would require us to sign at least the top 8 available free agents (going off last year's WAR)

 

this group combined for 34 wins last season:

Michael Bourn

Torii Hunter

Zack Greinke

Hiroki Kuroda

Adam LaRoche

Anibal Sanchez

A.J. Pierzynski

Jeff Keppinger

 

it gets a little more hilarious thinking about money we'd need to dish out if you were more interested in the perceived safer bets, like Hamilton, Napoli, Lohse, Swisher

[Cubswin11]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

Well a big reason there is teams being able to draft and develop impact guys who compile high WAR for low initial costs. The Cubs don't have a whole lot of those, but are trying to get them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That is literally some of the worst, laziest analysis that I've ever seen on this board.

 

But it fits right into the apologist for the front office mindset.

 

"The only way to find wins is to pay for them on free agent market through marquee signings. Nobody could *ever* find cheap wins on the rest of the roster. That's why it's not their fault that the bullpen was terrible last season or that Joe Mather ended up on the team."

[XZero771679666304]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

 

No primarily with free agents, they don't.

 

If you're going to "quick fix" a team with no MLB-ready (or near MLB-ready) impact talent and only 1-2 real talents on the big league roster, you're going to pay, and pay through the nose.

 

Turning the 2012 (and 2013, to a slightly lesser extent) Cubs into a contender would have meant essentially ignoring the farm, which is what Hendry would have done and what got us in the mess to begin with.

 

Good front offices keep their rosters supplemented with cheap sources of WAR (and trade bait) from the farm so they don't have to pay a premium at every most positions. This is what the Hendry regime was abysmal at doing, and largely why Theo and Jed have taken the course they have.

[sneakypower]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

go ahead and take a quick gander at our 2010 draft

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2010/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=chc

 

yeah, why aren't we steamrolling the NL?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

Well a big reason there is teams being able to draft and develop impact guys who compile high WAR for low initial costs. The Cubs don't have a whole lot of those, but are trying to get them.

 

Guys like Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Jeff Samardzija, Welington Castillo?

 

And that's not the only reason. Smart teams can find marginal wins at much below market race elsewhere, too.

[Guest]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

 

Ours are doing a good job of getting those undervalued guys.

 

The ones that are going to catapult you by 33 wins are probably going go at that $5M/win rate, if not more.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

go ahead and take a quick gander at our 2010 draft

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2010/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=chc

 

yeah, why aren't we steamrolling the NL?

 

So if the 2010 draft had been awesome, then it wouldn't be okay for Epstein and Hoyer to put out terrible teams? Interesting.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ours are doing a good job of getting those undervalued guys.

 

They did a completely, unacceptably terrible job of it last year. We'll see how they do this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No primarily with free agents, they don't.

 

Sure they do. Not primarily with big-name free agents, sure, but this is where the whole $/WAR analysis has gotten way out of control.

 

It wouldn't have cost $35 million to put out a league average bullpen last year, but our bullpen cost us 7 wins against the average bullpen. It wouldn't have cost us $20 million to find a decent 3b last season, but our 3b was four wins below average.

 

If you're going to "quick fix" a team with no MLB-ready (or near MLB-ready) impact talent and only 1-2 real talents on the big league roster, you're going to pay, and pay through the nose.

 

Only if you are really bad at your job.

 

Turning the 2012 (and 2013, to a slightly lesser extent) Cubs into a contender would have meant essentially ignoring the farm, which is what Hendry would have done and what got us in the mess to begin with.

 

Draft well, develop well. That's all the attention the farm should need.

 

Good front offices keep their rosters supplemented with cheap sources of WAR (and trade bait) from the farm so they don't have to pay a premium at every most positions. This is what the Hendry regime was abysmal at doing, and largely why Theo and Jed have taken the course they have.

 

Smart teams don't need to take the course Theo and Jed have to get the farm system into the shape it needs to be.

[Guest]

Ours are doing a good job of getting those undervalued guys.

 

They did a completely, unacceptably terrible job of it last year. We'll see how they do this year.

 

Maholm and DeJesus both provided significant surplus value.

[XZero771679666304]

No primarily with free agents, they don't.

 

Sure they do. Not primarily with big-name free agents, sure, but this is where the whole $/WAR analysis has gotten way out of control.

 

It wouldn't have cost $35 million to put out a league average bullpen last year, but our bullpen cost us 7 wins against the average bullpen. It wouldn't have cost us $20 million to find a decent 3b last season, but our 3b was four wins below average.

 

If you're going to "quick fix" a team with no MLB-ready (or near MLB-ready) impact talent and only 1-2 real talents on the big league roster, you're going to pay, and pay through the nose.

 

Only if you are really bad at your job.

 

Turning the 2012 (and 2013, to a slightly lesser extent) Cubs into a contender would have meant essentially ignoring the farm, which is what Hendry would have done and what got us in the mess to begin with.

 

Draft well, develop well. That's all the attention the farm should need.

 

Good front offices keep their rosters supplemented with cheap sources of WAR (and trade bait) from the farm so they don't have to pay a premium at every most positions. This is what the Hendry regime was abysmal at doing, and largely why Theo and Jed have taken the course they have.

 

Smart teams don't need to take the course Theo and Jed have to get the farm system into the shape it needs to be.

 

I think you're grossly and willfully underestimating just how dire the farm system was.

 

And you're not getting 20-30 WAR via a few bargain signings. That's preposterous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ours are doing a good job of getting those undervalued guys.

 

They did a completely, unacceptably terrible job of it last year. We'll see how they do this year.

 

Maholm and DeJesus both provided significant surplus value.

 

Maholm did. I'd say that's pretty debatable on DeJesus. Getting 1.7 WAR out of 150 games of starting outfield is not something desirable, no matter what Fangraphs $/WAR says. Paying $4.5 million for that privilege isn't what I would call "excess value."

 

Their choice of backup OFers, backup infielders, starting 3b, catchers, 5th starter and bullpen pitchers negated all that value and then some.

[sneakypower]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

Well a big reason there is teams being able to draft and develop impact guys who compile high WAR for low initial costs. The Cubs don't have a whole lot of those, but are trying to get them.

 

Guys like Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Jeff Samardzija, Welington Castillo?

that's 10 [expletive] wins! basically our whole entire foundation is essentially worth one buttfucking Mike Trout*!

 

And that's not the only reason. Smart teams can find marginal wins at much below market race elsewhere, too.

ah...in the first few months of their tenure, Theo & co. should have shrewded their way into a good 30 extra wins; i see what you're saying

 

*or 2.5 Jon Jays/David Freeses (who both outproduced the best player on our team last year)

[sneakypower]

Kyle is strolling through New Jersey right now, asking "why hasn't this been cleaned up yet?"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

I think you're grossly and willfully underestimating just how dire the farm system was.

 

And I think people are grossly and willfully overstating how bad it is in order to justify the new regime's choices. It bottomed out after the Garza trade, but it was on the upswing before Epstein came along.

 

And you're not getting 20-30 WAR via a few bargain signings. That's preposterous.

 

When you've got a lot of roster spots to fill, it's not nearly as hard as you make it sound. 20 WAR for 3 spots? Hard. 20 for 10? Not that.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The entire exercise is absurd. If teams really had to pay $5 million for every WAR, then playoff teams should cost $200 million or more. But they don't. Because good front offices can build teams with less than that.

 

If ours can't, then they aren't good.

 

Not necessarily. The teams like Tampa Bay and Oakland who contend with small payrolls have been at work, building their foundations for years. Epstein and Co. came into a massive, graffiti covered, piss-stained colosus and are tearing it down, and at the same time attempting to build something similar to what those teams have in it's place. I'm not saying that this is what the Cubs need to do, but if you're looking it at it from that point of view, the Cubs are essentially the Devil Rays of the early/mid '00s. Long way to go. The difference is, once we do get there, we have a lot more cash to supplement the home grown assets.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Little Slide Rooter

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle is strolling through New Jersey right now, asking "why hasn't this been cleaned up yet?"

 

You're doing a helluva job, Theo-ie.