Season Ticketholder Phone Conference w/ Theo & Jed

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The two sides here both want the same thing, just want to go about it differently. If the Cubs had added bigger pieces last offseason, more during this offseason and carried 140-150 mill payroll throughout the entirety of the next decade, it IS likely they'd wind up with 6-7 playoff appearances out of it. The other group thinks they can have a sustained run of 6-7 straight by building the way they are. Theo sees the second way though, as the one where you're likely fielding 90+ win teams winning the division year in and year out, instead of possibly getting a few WC playoff berths the other way. We'll know in a decade which side was right.

 

The idea that we can reliably count on making the playoffs 6 or 7 straight seems pretty absurd to me. The other teams aren't going to just lie down and give up for those years, and some of the teams in our division are run by reasonably astute front offices themselves. And every time we get a new CBA, it seems likely that our advantage of being a big-market team in a small-market division will shrink.

 

This method locks in the downside and counts on the upside hitting its ceiling just to break even.

[KingCubsFan]

The two sides here both want the same thing, just want to go about it differently. If the Cubs had added bigger pieces last offseason, more during this offseason and carried 140-150 mill payroll throughout the entirety of the next decade, it IS likely they'd wind up with 6-7 playoff appearances out of it. The other group thinks they can have a sustained run of 6-7 straight by building the way they are. Theo sees the second way though, as the one where you're likely fielding 90+ win teams winning the division year in and year out, instead of possibly getting a few WC playoff berths the other way. We'll know in a decade which side was right.

Disagree that carrying a large payroll will somehow guarantee that many playoff appearances. The new CBA makes it even more difficult to build your team through free agency, and it's made even worse by the new TV deals other teams are getting that the Cubs can't take advantage of. The free agency prices are getting ridiculous, and less and less marquee players are going to hit the market.

 

It's pretty clear that the most valuable assets going forward for teams are going to be young, cost-controlled players signed to Castro and McCutchen-like deals, followed by top prospects. We didn't have very many of those when Theo got here. He's trying to collect more, and possibly having bad major league teams for two seasons is the best way to do it.

[davell]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

[treebird]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

and the cardinals have only won 90 games twice in the past seven years, so you're looking for the cubs to have a MUCH more successful run than what they are on right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's pretty clear that the most valuable assets going forward for teams are going to be young, cost-controlled players signed to Castro and McCutchen-like deals, followed by top prospects. We didn't have very many of those when Theo got here. He's trying to collect more, and possibly having bad major league teams for two seasons is the best way to do it.

 

With the new CBA, every team has plenty of access to those assets.

 

With the restrictions on amateur acquisitions, the new CBA only leaves two places where we can use our considerable financial advantages to try to defeat the other teams in our division: Non-player personnel and MLB players.

 

Throwing away one of those two areas seems like an extremely counterproductive strategy, and it appears to me that the reason we are doing it has less to do with the needs of the franchise and more with an intellectually curious itch our new front office always wanted to scratch.

[davell]

KCF, obviously I'm on that side as well. But I could see how adding Fielder, maybe trading for Gio, supplementing a bit, adding another big piece or two this offseason would have put them in contention sooner. That said, as I have continually, nauseatingly said, the entirety of the organization wouldn't be in near as goodvof shape. I see us having the top system in baseball heading into 2015. It won't surprise me if we have 10 top 100 types at that point honestly. Which is where that wave of 26-27 year olds will come from. Hard to see it, because we don't know who they are obviously,(Stanton, Moore, Heyward, etc types) but I do see it happening and barring multiple injuries, a very long, sustained run.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd love to see someone put together a history of the No. 1 rated farm systems and see how the results turned out.

[SouthSideRyan]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

Of course it's possible that the Reds don't stop trying for 3 years after their old guys get old.

[davell]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

and the cardinals have only won 90 games twice in the past seven years, so you're looking for the cubs to have a MUCH more successful run than what they are on right now.

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

[Tryptamine]

I'd love to see someone put together a history of the No. 1 rated farm systems and see how the results turned out.

 

It would be more realistic if we looked at No.1 rated farm systems for teams that actually have money to spend. Looking at teams like KC who suck even after having a loaded farm system is a bit misleading because they don't have the means to supplement it with FA talent.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

 

And the Pirates and Brewers probably won't have any good seasons during that time, either.

 

So we tank 3 seasons, then split the division evenly with the Cardinals for the next six.

 

Congratulations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, you just matched Jim Hendry's term.

[SouthSideRyan]

Who is the last 26-27 year old to hit FA?

[davell]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

Of course it's possible that the Reds don't stop trying for 3 years after their old guys get old.

Well awesome. We can worry about beating an 80 win Reds team too then. They're not a major market team, nor do they have tons of help coming.

[SouthSideRyan]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

Of course it's possible that the Reds don't stop trying for 3 years after their old guys get old.

Well awesome. We can worry about beating an 80 win Reds team too then. They're not a major market team, nor do they have tons of help coming.

 

The Reds might have a higher payroll than us next season.

[Sammys Boombox]

I'm not picking a "side" because I think it's really hard to judge what they are doing without knowing what the big picture looks like financially.

[davell]

Who is the last 26-27 year old to hit FA?

They'll be traded for. As you well know. Our system isn't producing 5 superstars, nor are our guys counting on that. But its certainly going to produce some and we'll definitely have the currency to trade for others.

[KingCubsFan]

It's pretty clear that the most valuable assets going forward for teams are going to be young, cost-controlled players signed to Castro and McCutchen-like deals, followed by top prospects. We didn't have very many of those when Theo got here. He's trying to collect more, and possibly having bad major league teams for two seasons is the best way to do it.

 

With the new CBA, every team has plenty of access to those assets.

 

With the restrictions on amateur acquisitions, the new CBA only leaves two places where we can use our considerable financial advantages to try to defeat the other teams in our division: Non-player personnel and MLB players.

 

Throwing away one of those two areas seems like an extremely counterproductive strategy, and it appears to me that the reason we are doing it has less to do with the needs of the franchise and more with an intellectually curious itch our new front office always wanted to scratch.

I'd argue that teams with lucrative TV deals are now in a class of their own, and the Cubs aren't in it. So the Cubs supposed considerable financial advantage isn't as strong as it was in the past, particularly in the free agent market. Regardless, I'd rather use whatever financial advantage we have in different ways to acquire MLB talent as opposed to blowing it all on flawed players in free agency.

[Sammys Boombox]

Who is the last 26-27 year old to hit FA?

 

Not sure where this is coming from. It was apparent that Theo and Jed are talking about 26-27 year old player coming up from the system, not free agency. They may not have been apparent in the comments.

[davell]

See, I look at it the opposite: The Reds and Cards are really good now and would be hard to overtake at this exact point. But their players will be getting older and the contracts will look worse for them in a few years, making it easier on us. At least with the Reds. The Cards have such a good system right now, they're going to be tough for a long time.

 

Of course it's possible that the Reds don't stop trying for 3 years after their old guys get old.

Well awesome. We can worry about beating an 80 win Reds team too then. They're not a major market team, nor do they have tons of help coming.

 

The Reds might have a higher payroll than us next season.

Good for them. When the time comes, they're stuck in 2009 Cubs territory as an average team with not much of an outlook.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd argue that teams with lucrative TV deals are now in a class of their own, and the Cubs aren't in it.

 

Neither are any of the other teams in our division. The Cubs have never been the biggest market, but they arguably have the biggest market advantage relative to their division. They have the biggest Market+, so to speak.

 

Regardless, I'd rather use whatever financial advantage we have in different ways to acquire MLB talent as opposed to blowing it all on flawed players in free agency.

 

So would I. But you can't, because the new CBA says you can't. All that's left is free agency and trades for impending FAs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Good for them. When the time comes, they're stuck in 2009 Cubs territory as an average team with not much of an outlook.

 

That's the deal with the devil small-market teams make. The Brewers had their run, then the Reds are having theirs. When the Reds peter out, maybe the Pirates will be having theirs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Under the current playoff format, Epstein would have made the playoffs in both 2010, and 2011, while Jed would have made the playoffs in 2010.

 

When you combine this with the plans to blow things out before the new CBA and being in on Darvish and Cespedes, it sure seems like Hypothetical Theo and Jed are kicking some serious tail in some alternative universe while Actual Theo and Jed are floundering a bit.

[nilodnayr]

It's pretty clear that the most valuable assets going forward for teams are going to be young, cost-controlled players signed to Castro and McCutchen-like deals, followed by top prospects. We didn't have very many of those when Theo got here. He's trying to collect more, and possibly having bad major league teams for two seasons is the best way to do it.

 

With the new CBA, every team has plenty of access to those assets.

 

With the restrictions on amateur acquisitions, the new CBA only leaves two places where we can use our considerable financial advantages to try to defeat the other teams in our division: Non-player personnel and MLB players.

 

Throwing away one of those two areas seems like an extremely counterproductive strategy, and it appears to me that the reason we are doing it has less to do with the needs of the franchise and more with an intellectually curious itch our new front office always wanted to scratch.

 

The CBA restrictions slows our ability to build the farm and actually forces our hand to be traders at the deadline the next few seasons.

 

We can trade away short term players for prospects (ala Dempster and Maholm) at the trade deadline. We've acquired 2 of our top 10 prospects that way this season and we plan on doing the same again next season.

 

So the question is, do we want to save $ to spend when the "wave" comes through and in the mean acquire on the cheap and sell short term assets for top 10 prospects OR do we want to go for it and spend $ now and only improve our farm as much as we can with the new CBA restrictions.

 

Even with the second wild card, only 1/3rd of teams make the playoffs. Of course, its a crap shoot once you get in, but while the win curve has been changed, it still exists.

[XZero771679666304]

True, but they're currently in as good or better shape than they were at any point during that time. An extension to Wainwright that goes bad gurts them. Molina's deal will too eventually. Holliday as well. But they have lots of pitching on the way that may make uo for Wainwright and Tavares making up for Holliday. They're going to be good. It'll be easier dealing with them alone, than dealing with the Reds hitting on all cylinders as well right now.

 

And the Pirates and Brewers probably won't have any good seasons during that time, either.

 

So we tank 3 seasons, then split the division evenly with the Cardinals for the next six.

 

Congratulations, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, you just matched Jim Hendry's term.

 

The Brewers are likely to decline. They have holes now, and purged their system over the past 4 years so they don't have the means to fill them.

 

And let's dispense with predicting the number of potential playoff appearances and focus on the number of wins. If the Cubs win 90-95+ games each year for 6-7 consecutive years, that's success. If it leads to only 2-3 playoff appearances in that span, that'd still be a much more successful run than the one Hendry had. You can't control what other teams do, but if you're consistently winning 90+, you're getting it done. Hendry did not do this.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The CBA restrictions slows our ability to build the farm and actually forces our hand to be traders at the deadline the next few seasons.

 

It only "forces our hand" if one is under the bizarre but increasingly prevalent belief that acquiring prospects is the purpose of baseball operations for a MLB franchise.

 

AFAIK, they still only give out rings for winning MLB games, so maybe that should be the goal instead.

 

We can trade away short term players for prospects (ala Dempster and Maholm) at the trade deadline. We've acquired 2 of our top 10 prospects that way this season and we plan on doing the same again next season.

 

And we lost 100 games and didn't win the World Series, or even make the playoffs. That's a bad thing.

 

So the question is, do we want to save $ to spend when the "wave" comes through and in the mean acquire on the cheap and sell short term assets for top 10 prospects OR do we want to go for it and spend $ now and only improve our farm as much as we can with the new CBA restrictions.

 

The second one. We should definitely want the second one.