The Catch-All Trade Deadline Thread...

[dew1679666265]

He had been for the past couple years, but I don't recall anything since the new regime took over. He had a lot of egg on his face over the Theo hiring, too.

 

Wasn't he the lone voice warning that the Demp trade hadn't gone through yet and there could be a hangup? I don't give his opinions the first bit of stock, but he seems pretty decent (relatively speaking for this front office) at reporting actual news.

[Andy]

Do people go to the Cardinals board to defend NSBB? Just curious, seems kind of odd.

We were first, we don't need to defend ourselves. :twisted:

[Little Slide Rooter]

@Ken_Rosenthal: #Rays indeed cooler on moving Shields. Tough for them to act as buyer, though. Needs are SS, C - positions of scarcity in game.

 

I fully expect for this to get [expletive] upon, but Darwin Barney currently has a WAR of 4.1, which I assume goes up if successfully moved to SS. To put it into perspective, Elvis Adrus, who is obviously a more attractive option has a WAR of 2.1. While your average fan would respond with something like that's why WAR is such a dumb stat, many new age GMs think otherwise, and Andrew Friedman certainly fits that mold. And a catcher they want? If Soto really is a NT candidate, may as well throw him in. If they're looking for a veteran middle reliever, 4th OF, or utility guy, we have one of each if they insist on a sweetener.

 

James Shields is going to be 31 in December, and having a forgettable season but he does have team options for 2013&2014 of 9 and 12 MM respectively. Nice alternative to paying 3/45-50 or 5/65-75 for one of the remaining FA options. He also happens to fill one of our biggest needs.

I am not disagreeing with the fact Barney could be a SS option for them (he was one up until he got called up) and Friedman certainly is a smart enough GM to look into it. But presumably if they traded for Barney/Soto they would be buyers and probably wouldn't be including Shields or any other pieces off their ML roster in return for those guys.

 

It could be that they feel comfortable enough with their SP that they're willing to move Shields to fill their other needs. And even if they were sellers, again, Shields has team options for 9&12 MM the next 2 years, and they could pick them up, or buy them out for 1 mil a piece, but if they feel he's expendable, Barney's a guy who still has several years under team control and Soto is through 2013.

[mookie]

James Shields is a hot pile of garbage. No thanks.

[XZero771679666304]

James Shields is a hot pile of garbage. No thanks.

 

He was good last year, but that was sandwiched between a lot of [expletive]. I wouldn't give much up for him, and the asking price has reportedly been kind of high. Apparently Tampa has "cooled" on trading him, probably because GMs are thinking the same thing.

[davell]

Cliff Lee looks to be on the market. If so, I hope the Rangers get him.

[El Duderino]

Cliff Lee has a no-trade to 21 teams. Interesting.

[neely crenshaw]

Shields is not a hot pile of garbage. Garza is better, but Shields is healthy. He is not a front end of the rotation guy, and he is not the guy from last year. He also probably isn't the guy from this year either. Stats aren't bad...he isn't Liriano.

We have no use for him but some teams would.

The teams that are looking at Shields are looking at a 3 or 4 guy.

Other than Greinke and Hamels(both free agents), there weren't front end guys out there that don't have baggage or questions.

If they aren't free agents to be, then there usually is a reason they are available.

The rays may have dropped interest because the feedback was that the value simply wasn't there.

[Sammy Sofa]

Shields is not a hot pile of garbage. Garza is better, but Shields is healthy. He is not a front end of the rotation guy, and he is not the guy from last year. He also probably isn't the guy from this year either. Stats aren't bad...he isn't Liriano.

We have no use for him but some teams would.

The teams that are looking at Shields are looking at a 3 or 4 guy.

Other than Greinke and Hamels(both free agents), there weren't front end guys out there that don't have baggage or questions.

If they aren't free agents to be, then there usually is a reason they are available.

The rays may have dropped interest because the feedback was that the value simply wasn't there.

 

He's pretty bad this year; he was even worse in 2010, plus 2009 was a noticeable decline from the previous years as well. There's definitely concerns. Don't get me wrong, I can easily see why teams would want to get him, but I don't think he's a lock as a front end guy.

[El Duderino]

shields is weird. this year his k-rate is at an all-time high, walks slightly up, but not that much.

[XZero771679666304]

Shields is not a hot pile of garbage. Garza is better, but Shields is healthy. He is not a front end of the rotation guy, and he is not the guy from last year. He also probably isn't the guy from this year either. Stats aren't bad...he isn't Liriano.

We have no use for him but some teams would.

The teams that are looking at Shields are looking at a 3 or 4 guy.

Other than Greinke and Hamels(both free agents), there weren't front end guys out there that don't have baggage or questions.

If they aren't free agents to be, then there usually is a reason they are available.

The rays may have dropped interest because the feedback was that the value simply wasn't there.

 

He's pretty bad this year; he was even worse in 2010, plus 2009 was a noticeable decline from the previous years as well. There's definitely concerns. Don't get me wrong, I can easily see why teams would want to get him, but I don't think he's a lock as a front end guy.

 

 

Yeah, he's a guy you wouldn't want to absolutely count on to be any more than an innings eater. His ace type season last year is looking like an outlier.

[neely crenshaw]

1 thing that stands out on him, last year he had 11 complete games, this year 0.

 

When you look at some of the guys out there, it makes you wonder why the questions on Garza. Yes, he has what seems like a really minor injury, but compared to what some of the down sides of the top pitchers, it seems like his problem is minor. (Especially since you would have a complete physical for him).

Lee, Johnson, Shields, Beckett all have had poor season and although they have been very good previously, they all show signs of never being that guy again.

With Garza, at least you have to believe that over the next year plus, he will be Garza.

It seems like I would go for that rather than hope Johnson or Beckett return to their form.

[WrigleyField 22]

You know, with the way Hendry backloaded contracts at time averaging out the payroll isn't the worst way to do it.

 

Name a GM who doesn't backload contracts.

okay but Hendry did it to the extreme in 2006. What was Soriano's first year, 5 million or something?

 

Not criticizing the decision. The point being that when evaluating two teams payrolls it makes sense to average it out because its pretty clear part of the reason their payroll explooded vs the Sox were those severely backloaded deals. I mean when we outspent them we outspent by a significant amount and a few of the years they outspent us it was nearly even. To say that Kenny Williams had equal or better resouces as Hendry because "they outspent 5 out of 7 years" is laughable. Hendry clearly had more at his disposal. Williams still had plenty and has done rather average at best with it.

 

 

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[Guest]

You know, with the way Hendry backloaded contracts at time averaging out the payroll isn't the worst way to do it.

 

Name a GM who doesn't backload contracts.

okay but Hendry did it to the extreme in 2006. What was Soriano's first year, 5 million or something?

 

Not criticizing the decision. The point being that when evaluating two teams payrolls it makes sense to average it out because its pretty clear part of the reason their payroll explooded vs the Sox were those severely backloaded deals. I mean when we outspent them we outspent by a significant amount and a few of the years they outspent us it was nearly even. To say that Kenny Williams had equal or better resouces as Hendry because "they outspent 5 out of 7 years" is laughable. Hendry clearly had more at his disposal. Williams still had plenty and has done rather average at best with it.

 

 

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$10M in 07

$14M in 08

$17M in 09

$19M each year thereafter

[dew1679666265]

okay but Hendry did it to the extreme in 2006. What was Soriano's first year, 5 million or something?

 

Not criticizing the decision. The point being that when evaluating two teams payrolls it makes sense to average it out because its pretty clear part of the reason their payroll explooded vs the Sox were those severely backloaded deals. I mean when we outspent them we outspent by a significant amount and a few of the years they outspent us it was nearly even. To say that Kenny Williams had equal or better resouces as Hendry because "they outspent 5 out of 7 years" is laughable. Hendry clearly had more at his disposal. Williams still had plenty and has done rather average at best with it.

 

Soriano went from $9 mil in year one to $13, 16, and then 18 each year following. Pretty standard backloading, I think. I don't think averaging the differences (as benchwarmer did) is very accurate either, because it eliminates the fact that the White Sox did have a higher payroll than us 5 of the past 7 years. Even if Hendry had huge advantages in other seasons, that still doesn't change the fact that Kenny had advantages in most of the past 7 seasons - that's significant.

 

And the backloading in the 2006 offseason wasn't that dramatic - I already addressed Soriano and Lilly jumped from 5 to 7 to 12. If you want extreme backloading, look at Cliff Lee going from $11 mil in 2011 to $21.5 mil in 2012. That's a far more dramatic jump than anything Hendry signed in his tenure.

[Benchwarmer]

okay but Hendry did it to the extreme in 2006. What was Soriano's first year, 5 million or something?

 

Not criticizing the decision. The point being that when evaluating two teams payrolls it makes sense to average it out because its pretty clear part of the reason their payroll explooded vs the Sox were those severely backloaded deals. I mean when we outspent them we outspent by a significant amount and a few of the years they outspent us it was nearly even. To say that Kenny Williams had equal or better resouces as Hendry because "they outspent 5 out of 7 years" is laughable. Hendry clearly had more at his disposal. Williams still had plenty and has done rather average at best with it.

 

Soriano went from $9 mil in year one to $13, 16, and then 18 each year following. Pretty standard backloading, I think. I don't think averaging the differences (as benchwarmer did) is very accurate either, because it eliminates the fact that the White Sox did have a higher payroll than us 5 of the past 7 years. Even if Hendry had huge advantages in other seasons, that still doesn't change the fact that Kenny had advantages in most of the past 7 seasons - that's significant.

 

And the backloading in the 2006 offseason wasn't that dramatic - I already addressed Soriano and Lilly jumped from 5 to 7 to 12. If you want extreme backloading, look at Cliff Lee going from $11 mil in 2011 to $21.5 mil in 2012. That's a far more dramatic jump than anything Hendry signed in his tenure.

 

The fact the WSox won a WS and spent $91 million less to do it is quite significant. You had years where the Cubs spent 38M and 39M more and still did not win. Which GM would you want?

 

Hendry was terrible at drafting young talent, developing young talent and bidding against himself for vet contracts. He wasted alot of $$$$$.

[Andy]

No one is arguing Hendry's virtues as a GM. We are saying your assertion that Kenny Williams is far and away better is, to put it kindly, bogus.

[WrigleyField 22]

My memory exaggerated Soriano's backloading. Still I think its crazy to say Kenny had more resources than Hendry since he outspent him by $3m one year when the next year Hendry outspent him by over 30M. To pretend those two are equal is stupid. It isn't some binary thing like wins and losses. Theres a lot more than two outcomes when comparing salary discrepancies.

 

 

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[dew1679666265]

The fact the WSox won a WS and spent $91 million less to do it is quite significant. You had years where the Cubs spent 38M and 39M more and still did not win. Which GM would you want?

 

Theo. Seriously though, each GM had a fantastic season and were generally even other than that one year. Hendry had a lot more to spend in a few years and Kenny had a little more to spend in a lot of years. Neither is a GM I want running the Cubs at this point and I don't see a huge difference between the two.

 

Hendry was terrible at drafting young talent, developing young talent and bidding against himself for vet contracts. He wasted alot of $$$$$.

 

Those are Kenny's faults too - his minor league system is horrid and he willingly took on Alex Rios' contract.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hendry had a lot more to spend in a few years and Kenny had a little more to spend in a lot of years.

 

I find that very hard to believe. Unless you are basing it off those bogus "opening day payroll" numbers that USA Today and ESPN like to throw around.

[CubColtPacer]

Hendry had a lot more to spend in a few years and Kenny had a little more to spend in a lot of years.

 

I find that very hard to believe. Unless you are basing it off those bogus "opening day payroll" numbers that USA Today and ESPN like to throw around.

 

The numbers given in this thread are very close to the numbers Cots gives (although not quite the same). They update during the season with each new contract that is added to a payroll and are usually considered the gold standard for contract details (including money payouts to/from other clubs). Of course that just reflects money actually spent and not budget, but budgets would just be guesswork as teams are pretty tight lipped about such things.

[UMFan83]

This is silly, the White Sox spent less than the Cubs and got less out of it. Fine they won the world series but the fact that it took the Sox another 3 years to make the playoffs again with very similar teams (but adding Thome and subtracting Rowand) while their payroll skyrocketed, says to be that the crapshoot worked in favor of them that year.

 

It's a pretty silly argument because both teams track records over the last decade are probably worse than other teams that spent less than them (Twins, Cardinals, etc.).

[Sammys Boombox]

Can anybody give me an example of Hendry making a "sellers" deadline move that actually panned out? It seems like his "best" move was Maddux for Izturis.

 

EDIT: I guess the Lilly/Theriot/DeWiit trade was probably better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Can anybody give me an example of Hendry making a "sellers" deadline move that actually panned out? It seems like his "best" move was Maddux for Izturis.

 

Todd Walker for Jose Ceda was looking like it would be a good one. Then Ceda turned into Kevin Gregg.

[neely crenshaw]

Hendry seemed better at taking others salary problems for our fading prospects. Oh, and bidding up himself for free agents.