The Future Rotation thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ITT: Try to build the Cubs rotation for 2013 and beyond.

 

Trying to put together a credible rotation is going to be one of the biggest challenges for transitioning this team from the tank-tastic mess we have now to the Theo-led dynasty we all want. I'd like to see people's plans.

 

Here is what we have under control right now for 2013:

 

Garza - Disappointing a little after what looked like it might be a breakout year in 2011, but still a 3-4 win pitcher once the HR/FB rates start to normalize. Seems very likely to be traded.

 

Samardzija - Promising and with fantastic stuff, but has to prove he can handle a starter's workload.

 

Travis Wood - ERA is pretty, but peripherals seem to be settling into the BOR guy that the industry sees him as

 

Volstad - big bag of awful who seems like he should have better stuff somewhere in there

 

Wells - a big bag of awful with mediocre stuff

 

Some assorted mediocre prospects that I guess someone could slot in there if they wanted.

 

Here's what's available

 

Cot's Baseball's list of FA starting pitchers after this season, asterisk means the player has at least some kind of 2013 option in their contract.

 

 

Scott Baker *

Joe Blanton

Matt Cain

Fausto Carmona *

Kevin Correia

Jorge De La Rosa *

R.A. Dickey *

Scott Feldman *

Gavin Floyd *

Zack Greinke

Jeremy Guthrie

Cole Hamels

Dan Haren *

Tim Hudson *

Colby Lewis

Francisco Liriano

Kyle Lohse

Derek Lowe

Shaun Marcum

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brandon McCarthy

Brett Myers *

Carl Pavano

Jake Peavy *

Anibal Sanchez

Jonathan Sanchez

Ervin Santana *

Joe Saunders

James Shields *

Jake Westbrook *

Randy Wolf *

Carlos Zambrano *

 

 

It really depends on the payroll plans for next year, but it seems like we should have anywhere from $20 to $60 million available this offseason.

 

So ... post your plans.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm trying to put my proposed plan together, and I keep running out of starters.

 

I think Garza's as good as gone, and I'm not sure we're going to get someone who can be comfortably slotted in as a big-league starter in 2013 in return. I think we may focus on getting a higher-upside AA or A+ arm who will be ready by 2014.

 

I'd also like to see Samardzija moved back to the bullpen. I'm just not convinced he can stick as a starter and I'm not interested in seeing attrition destroy his arm while he tries. He could be a devastating high-leverage BP guy, and we desperately need one or two of those as badly as we do starters.

 

So that leaves pretty much just Travis Wood, and maybe I'm willing to play another round of 5th starter shuffle with the various internal options again. So that means three spots have to be filled externally just to fill out a rotation. (Can we get a do-over on Darvish? I really wanted Darvish just for this reason).

 

Given the state of the organization, I think you just absolutely have to be in on the ace-quality free agents this season. That means you bite the bullet and go to whatever it takes for a Grienke or Hamels. Given the new period of inflation we're seeing, I don't think $25 million a year is out of order. That's not even half of what we have available to spend this offseason.

 

So with Ace FA/???/????/Wood/InternalGarbage in place, you have to try and find two more mid-rotation guys, and ideally you want medium-price, medium-length contracts. It seems like a good offseason to find those guys.

[davell]

Kind of hard to do this 3 weeks before the deadline. My guess is Shark and Wood are definites. I'm not totally positive we don't keep Maholm past the deadline and pick up his option. I can see possibilities of at least one, maybe two guys, we get as returns out of trades competing for spots. I figure we'll sign one midlevel vet, no better than a Marcum and I doubt for any longer than two years. We love depth, so I'm sure we'll have another Rodrigo Lopez or two heading in as well.

[Guest]

Not sure about the rest of the list, but Cain signed a long term deal earlier this year.

[Backtobanks]

Obviously the future rotation is going to be dependent on what young pitchers we get in the Garza, Dempster, Soriano, Lahair, and Soto trades because there isn't much to look forward to in the minors or free agency. I think somewhere in the future (2-3 years), Theo is going to have to package a bunch of our prospects and make a blockbuster deal for a TOR guy. It's hard to predict the future, but right now things look pretty dismal in the pitching department.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Do-able but not likely

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Dempster: trade now, resign later

5. Wood

 

Quasi-realistic

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Wood

5. Maholm

 

More realistic

1. Shark

2. A. Sanchez

3. Wood

4. Turner

5. Maholm

 

If you're one of those who think we'll never sign or trade anyone

1. Shark

2. Wood

3. Maholm

4. Volstad

5. Raley/Rusin

[toonsterwu]

A lot will depend on trades (realistically, the Garza trade, but Dempster could bring back a ready arm), if they happen. Working off the idea that Garza is gone (and Dempster) ...

 

I think the only things we can pencil in for 2013, as of now, are Samardzija and Travis Wood. There really isn't that much help on the horizon unless they want to tank another season. I'm also not sure I see them going in on a top FA pitching option. I would like someone like Hamels (if he doesn't sign with the Dodgers, I think a lot of people are going to be surprised), but I don't see them committing the money and years that it would take to lock him down. Epstein's been pretty clear on how he felt he deviated from organizational philosophy in Boston, and we're in a far earlier stage of building than Boston ever was, so I'm just not sure.

 

That said, it's almost impossible to build a rotation without a FA, and while I'm not against tanking another season (not for it either ... ), I don't know if they could stomach two horrid seasons. So, considering there's some young positional pieces in play, to be competitive, they really have to push for a solid FA arm. I also wouldn't rule out Dempster coming back (I do expect them to deal him, but it's not out of the question that they could sign him as a good veteran 3rd/4th starter for say, a 2 year deal). For now, I'll work off the assumption that they won't bring him back as a FA.

 

My early stab on what they might do:

 

1. Jeff Samardzija - I don't see why he shouldn't stay as a starter. I guess we have to see how he does the 2nd half, but considering how much they like young power arms, and how well he's done the first half, I'd be surprised, even if he collapsed in the 2nd half, if they didn't keep him as a starter to start 2013.

2. Edwin Jackson (FA) - I could go with a guy I like in Anibal Sanchez, but someone already noted him, so let's try something different. Short of it is, 2nd tier FA starter. He's a year older, but still in his prime, and the velocity is there. I think it would take a three year deal, maybe some sort of 4th year option, on Jackson, though, and that's where things get a bit iffy. Still ... he would be in his prime at the end of the deal.

3. Midseason trade acqusition, likely from a Garza trade.

4. Travis Wood

5. Paul Maholm - Definitely could be moved. My thinking is, though, that at 6.5 million, he's affordable, and the chances of Maholm netting a key return seems ... debatable. So ... instead of turning to Raley/Rusin/Volstad and Co., maybe they keep him around for another year to give more stability to the rotation.

 

This isn't a great rotation by any means. Heck ... it could be pretty bad. But it's a stab at what I think they might do.

[Backtobanks]

Do-able but not likely

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Dempster: trade now, resign later

5. Wood

 

Quasi-realistic

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Wood

5. Maholm

 

More realistic

1. Shark

2. A. Sanchez

3. Wood

4. Turner

5. Maholm

 

If you're one of those who think we'll never sign or trade anyone

1. Shark

2. Wood

3. Maholm

4. Volstad

5. Raley/Rusin

 

I don't think Theo is ready to spend big this offseason, so that eliminates Hamels.

[Magnetic Curses]

Do-able but not likely

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Dempster: trade now, resign later

5. Wood

 

Quasi-realistic

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Wood

5. Maholm

 

More realistic

1. Shark

2. A. Sanchez

3. Wood

4. Turner

5. Maholm

 

If you're one of those who think we'll never sign or trade anyone

1. Shark

2. Wood

3. Maholm

4. Volstad

5. Raley/Rusin

 

I don't think Theo is ready to spend big this offseason, so that eliminates Hamels.

 

and yet theo knows that he has no passable arms and the only way he's going to get them is if he signs them in free agency. signing hamels and/or greinke in the offseason is the best bet to be ready for contention in a year or two. pass on either of them and you're going to have to deplete the farm to do that.

 

you're acting as if they're looking for one-year deals.

[EhDubya]

nm Edited July 9, 2012 by EhDubya

[sneakypower]

i really want to buy (relatively) low on Liriano

[Backtobanks]

Do-able but not likely

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Dempster: trade now, resign later

5. Wood

 

Quasi-realistic

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Wood

5. Maholm

 

More realistic

1. Shark

2. A. Sanchez

3. Wood

4. Turner

5. Maholm

 

If you're one of those who think we'll never sign or trade anyone

1. Shark

2. Wood

3. Maholm

4. Volstad

5. Raley/Rusin

 

I don't think Theo is ready to spend big this offseason, so that eliminates Hamels.

 

and yet theo knows that he has no passable arms and the only way he's going to get them is if he signs them in free agency. signing hamels and/or greinke in the offseason is the best bet to be ready for contention in a year or two. pass on either of them and you're going to have to deplete the farm to do that.

 

you're acting as if they're looking for one-year deals.

 

 

Garza, Greinke, and Hamels are all the same age (within 2 months). Theo might as well extend Garza instead of spending an extra $50-$60 million on Hamels. Also, the Cubs are nowhere near contention in a year and probably not in two years unless Jackson, Vitters, and a few others come up and hit like Rizzo. I think the 2013/2014 offseason will be when Theo will be spending and/or making a blockbuster deal to help immediately.

[scarey]

I am liking Brandon McCarthy personally. I read an interview from last year centered around his comeback. He is a guy that really understands advanced metrics and holds mechanics in the highest regard. He also has a relatively low IP total over his career and has changed his pitching repertoire to help him extend his career. Hamels is going to be the golden goose and I am afraid LA is going to throw ridiculous money at him. Grab McCarthy on a 5 year deal and I would be thrilled.

 

The other guy I think I'd like to target is Liriano. His BBs are pretty ugly, but his FIP is sitting at 4.13 for the year. Not terrible. I wonder if maybe 1year/$6mill or 2year/$10mill could land him if Sanchez or Marcum can't be snagged.

 

1. Brandon McCarthy

2. Jeff Samardzija

3. Travis Wood

4. Francisco Liriano

5. Brooks Raley

 

Other than that, I wouldn't be opposed to dealing some of the minor league positional depth the Cubs have in exchange for a mid/top of the rotation prospect.

[rawaction]

I agree with the Liriano sentiment. I really think he could be a Theo/Hoyer type of signing. I don't think he would take a seriously long deal for a ton of money, despite having the talent that suggest he could. I'll even go out on a limb and say I think he could be had for a 2-3 year deal for no more than 10-12 per. If you can get him for 2/20 or 3/33, I think that's a no-brainer type of move. He's only 29 all of 2013. The stuff is still there. He's still striking out a man an inning, allowing less than a hit an inning, and keeping the ball in the park at a decent rate. The big issue with him has been throwing strikes. This to me would be like the Ted Lilly signing a few years ago, as I think Liriano can potentially have the most consistent 3 years of his career in the next 3 before he officially becomes "aging". I also don't think the Cubs commit big years and big money to any arms. I don't think they sign multiple arms either unless they are both really affordable steals. Lastly, I think that the FO believes that Samardzija can be a top of the rotation guy, so I'm guessing they are more apt to trade Garza than I had hoped.

 

My crack at the rotation would be:

 

1. Liriano

2. Samardzija

3. High quality ML ready arm from Dempster/Garza trade (I think if they can get an Eovaldi type or ML ready starter for Dempster, the Cubs wouldn't hesitate to take a high upside package of arms further away from the majors for Garza)

4. Wood

5. Maholm/Rusin/Raley/Dempster trade arm/Garza trade arm

[Guest]

I'm not sure if this is supposed to be a "how would you build the rotation" or "how would Theo/Jed build the rotation", so I'll borrow from both pools. First, for some assumptions. I think that given what we've seen so far, that both Garza and Dempster are gone at the deadline, and I think you'll see at least 2 MLB ready arms coming back as a result. I think that Hamels is going to get a deal that's too long for the front office to be seriously interested. To speak in generalities, pitchers are perpetually short term commodities, and I'm not sure there's ever going to be one that will be worth a 6-7 year deal at Hamels' career stage.

 

So just to use some real names, let's say Dempster goes to LA for Eovaldi, and Garza goes to Detroit for Turner and another strong prospect that isn't MLB ready. That leaves us with Samardzija/Wood/Maholm/Eovaldi/Turner, which might be a very fine rotation in 3 years, but I think we can do a little better.

 

First off, I'd like to see a trade for a SP. That target is most likely getting dealt for either slight/perceived underperformance, financial reasons, or both. To throw out a list just to see some names: Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer/Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Jarrod Parker, Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Leake/Homer Bailey, John Danks/Gavin Floyd, etc.

 

Secondly, I don't think the front office will be as quiet on the FA front when it comes to SP this year, because it looks like there are some opportunities to get good value if other teams are unnecessarily wary of spending on certain guys. Guys like Greinke(anxiety), Liriano(injury), Marcum(injury/undervalued), Lewis(journeyman), McCarthy(journeyman), and Anibal Sanchez(undervalued) all have reasons they might come for cheaper than one might think. That's not to say that there's going to be a half dozen guys at appropriate price points for the front office to pick from, but it only takes one.

 

So what does the rotation ultimately look like? Maybe something like:

 

Liriano

Masterson

Samardzija

Wood

Maholm

Eovaldi

 

And I think I would be pretty okay with that.

[Magnetic Curses]

i'd prefer sanchez to liriano.

[sneakypower]

he'll probably cost $50M more, too

 

i'd actually like both, though

[Fro]

We're definitely going to need to get at least 1 starter for the front half of the rotation.

 

Really depends on what happens with the potential Garza/Dempster trades.

 

I think you have to pencil in Wood and Shark for two of the spots, but it's pretty wide-open after that.

 

If I'm a GM at this point, I'm starting a knuckleball program and dumping several million into that, but that's obviously going to take several years for you to develop players that way. That's a way I think you could have a constant stream of cheap #3-5 starters.

[Vinestal]

We're definitely going to need to get at least 1 starter for the front half of the rotation.

 

Really depends on what happens with the potential Garza/Dempster trades.

 

I think you have to pencil in Wood and Shark for two of the spots, but it's pretty wide-open after that.

 

If I'm a GM at this point, I'm starting a knuckleball program and dumping several million into that, but that's obviously going to take several years for you to develop players that way. That's a way I think you could have a constant stream of cheap #3-5 starters.

Thats like saying your going to round up a bunch of toddlers and have them all finger paint so that you can have a steady flow of Picaso's. Knuckleballing is an art form people who can control the pitch in any useable way are rarer than rare.

[Theo]

Seriously? A knuckleball program? That has to be one of the dumbest ideas I have ever heard of.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Do-able but not likely

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Dempster: trade now, resign later

5. Wood

 

Quasi-realistic

 

1. Hamels

2. Garza

3. Shark

4. Wood

5. Maholm

 

More realistic

1. Shark

2. A. Sanchez

3. Wood

4. Turner

5. Maholm

 

If you're one of those who think we'll never sign or trade anyone

1. Shark

2. Wood

3. Maholm

4. Volstad

5. Raley/Rusin

 

I don't think Theo is ready to spend big this offseason, so that eliminates Hamels.

 

and yet theo knows that he has no passable arms and the only way he's going to get them is if he signs them in free agency. signing hamels and/or greinke in the offseason is the best bet to be ready for contention in a year or two. pass on either of them and you're going to have to deplete the farm to do that.

 

you're acting as if they're looking for one-year deals.

 

 

Garza, Greinke, and Hamels are all the same age (within 2 months). Theo might as well extend Garza instead of spending an extra $50-$60 million on Hamels. Also, the Cubs are nowhere near contention in a year and probably not in two years unless Jackson, Vitters, and a few others come up and hit like Rizzo. I think the 2013/2014 offseason will be when Theo will be spending and/or making a blockbuster deal to help immediately.

 

I don't think it's about time frame so much as when he see's what he wants at a reasonable price. We know that they had some degree of interest in Pujols and Fielder. We also know that there was no way that either would have signed for anything less than 17 mil/year. The length is likely what chased them away.

 

Knowing this, there likely is money to spend, and there should be a good deal of it. Rather than spread the money around to consolation prizes, my guess is that if they don't see what they want, they'll stick it back in their wallet until they find something they do. Starting pitching is a big need. Between Shark, Wood, and Maholm, that's 3 productive starters at a great price.

[rawaction]

We're definitely going to need to get at least 1 starter for the front half of the rotation.

 

Really depends on what happens with the potential Garza/Dempster trades.

 

I think you have to pencil in Wood and Shark for two of the spots, but it's pretty wide-open after that.

 

I actually think very little depends on what happens in the Garza/Dempster trade(s). Even if you get 3 potential top of the rotation arms for them that are ready next year (extreme best case scenario), they won't be T-O-R pitchers in 2013. If you get a quasi top of the rotation pitcher in free agency (Sanchez, Liriano, Marcum type) then that puts less pressure on what will be (presumably) rookies from the Garza/Dempster trade. I'm liking the thought of highest upside possible, regardless of how far they are from the majors approach, the more I think about it. The Cubs should have the money and finally should have the foresight to actually do something in free agency that helps the team next year.

 

Extreme example, but I'd take Zach Lee's upside from the Dodgers and wait a year or 2 for him over Eovaldi who's in the majors now but never going to be more than a 3-4, just because the Cubs theoretically need someone to fill Garza and Dempster's spots next year. I'd rather get the most talent possible for both and if you have to spend on reclamation projects or throw a Raley in the rotation next year to fill the 5 spots, then do that.

[toonsterwu]

First off, I'd like to see a trade for a SP. That target is most likely getting dealt for either slight/perceived underperformance, financial reasons, or both. To throw out a list just to see some names: Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer/Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Jarrod Parker, Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Leake/Homer Bailey, John Danks/Gavin Floyd, etc.

 

Has there been something on Justin Masterson that I missed? I've got a hard time seeing the Indians dealing him this offseason.

[davell]

I think I'm a tad higher on Eovaldi than most, but I'd love to get him in a one for one deal with Dempster. Maybe Tampa sends us Alex Cobb in a LaHair or Soto deal? Possible we could get a Hutchison or Delgado type in a Garza deal too. I think I expect one major leaguer to slot immediately into the rotation from these deals, maybe two. If so, after Shark and Wood, it probably leaves at most 2 spots, and possibly just one. I doubt we give anyone more than a 3 year deal personally and if I had to bet, I'd say two is the max we go. Liriano or Marcum, maybe even both, feel like the types we go after this offseason.

[Guest]

First off, I'd like to see a trade for a SP. That target is most likely getting dealt for either slight/perceived underperformance, financial reasons, or both. To throw out a list just to see some names: Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer/Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Jarrod Parker, Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Leake/Homer Bailey, John Danks/Gavin Floyd, etc.

 

Has there been something on Justin Masterson that I missed? I've got a hard time seeing the Indians dealing him this offseason.

 

Just educated guesswork, really. He'll be arbitration eligible, and they could be interested in moving him depending on how they perceive themselves going into the offseason, plus he's a former Theo/Jed/Jason draftee.